kleese Posted December 6, 2007 Share Posted December 6, 2007 www.edkleese.blogspot.com Last Week: 10-6 Season: 120-72 Record Picking Redskins Games: 7-5 Against the Spread: 21-25-2 Lock of the Week: 7-5 Last Week’s Pats: The Browns-Cardinals game was an even spread, and I correctly picked the right side (Cardinals). Other than that, can’t brag about too much. Last Week’s Apologies: The only real “apology” this week goes out to the Giants, who I thought may have been about to go on a slide. But the Giants, and more importantly, their quarterback made some clutch plays late in the game and got a much needed victory. This Week’s Picks: Chicago at Washington: A nearly impossible game to pick because of the emotions involved. Will the Redskins play more “free” now that they have some closure following Sean Taylor’s funeral? Or will they be even more drained than they were last week? On the field, I see these two teams as even, so the intangibles will go a long way in deciding this one. The winner finds themselves in the thick of the playoff hunt, while the loser can start making off-season plans. A tough one. Going with my heart here. Redskins 19, Bears 16 Miami at Buffalo: Sorry Miami, not this week. Bills 22, Dolphins 13 St. Louis at Cincinnati: This is the official “Most Disappointing Team in Each Conference” Bowl. A fun match-up when the schedule was released is now nothing more than a December dud. Bengals 27, Rams 23 Carolina at Jacksonville: The Panthers are one win away from establishing themselves in the NFC wildcard race. But I don’t see them getting that win this week. Even though Jacksonville proved they aren’t real contenders last week, they are still more than capable of taking care of Carolina. Jaguars 28, Panthers 14 Dallas at Detroit: The only thing that has me wavering this week is the fact that this is a virtually meaningless game for Dallas. With four games left and a two game cushion on Green Bay, I could see Dallas taking a “week off” sometime soon. Having said that, Detroit looks simply miserable right now and the Cowboys may be able to beat them at half-speed. Cowboys 30, Lions 23 Tampa Bay at Houston: I’ve been riding the Texans all year long. I’ve “hit” a few times and missed a few more. Tampa basically won the NFC South last week, so I could see a letdown here. Texans 20, Bucs 17 Oakland at Green Bay: I know people want to see Brett Favre keep his consecutive starts streak alive, but if I were the Packers, I’d rest him this week regardless. Green Bay is close to being locked into their playoff slot, and playing at home against a 4-8 team would be a good time to give Favre some rest. Either way, I like the Packers in an ugly one. But expect the Raiders to compete. Packers 18, Raiders 16 San Diego at Tennessee: Finally, the Chargers seem to have things figured out. Now, they can wait until mid January to collapse. Chargers 27, Titans 17 New York Giants at Philadelphia: Another tough call. Giants are coming off a huge win, while Philly is reeling from back to back close losses. It’s desperation time for the Eagles, while the Giants have more wiggle room than any other NFC wildcard contender. The Giants are the better team, but I see the Eagles finding a way. Eagles 24, Giants 21 Minnesota at San Francisco: Talk about a roll. The Vikings have just destroyed their last two opponents and now they get to take on the lowly 49ers. Still not 100% sold on Tavaris Jackson, but the Vikings won’t need him this week. Vikings 26, 49ers 17 Arizona at Seattle: I have a feeling the Cardinals loss two week’s ago to the 49ers is going to ultimately doom their season. Arizona beat Seattle earlier this year, but I don’t see that happening again—especially if Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are both out. Seahawks 30, Cardinals 20 Kansas City at Denver: The Chiefs were essentially eliminated from playoff contention last week. With a loss on Sunday, Denver will join them. Look for the Broncos to hang on for at least one more week. Broncos 24, Chiefs 17 Pittsburgh at New England: Only the Patriots can BENEFIT from their own false start on 4th and inches. After two scares, I see New England winning this one a bit more easily, but they certainly don’t seem as indestructible as they once did. Patriots 34, Steelers 20 Cleveland at New York Jets: Riding an upset hunch here—the Jets have played pretty well in the Meadowland this year and Kellen Clemens has made that offense a bit more potent. Jets 26, Browns 24 Indianapolis at Baltimore: The Ravens gave it everything they had last Monday against New England. You have to wonder if they have anything left. Colts 27, Ravens 16 New Orleans at Atlanta: I want to ride the upset wave here, but I’m going to be a weenie and play it safe. Saints 31, Falcons 20 4 To Score 1. Chargers (even) against the Titans. I always like even spreads. I REALLY like this one. 2. Lions (+10.5) against the Cowboys. That is a huge line for a home underdog. 3. Texans (+3) against the Bucs. Been riding the Texans all year-- for better or worse. 4. Jets (+3) against the Browns. Going with another home underdog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbuccaro Posted December 6, 2007 Share Posted December 6, 2007 - Take the Bears & the (+3) points in a low scoring matchup. Bears should win turnover/field position battle and the Redskins just don't score enough touchdowns to be a favorite. - Upset for the week is S.F. over Minn. (If I'm wrong and the Niners lose, I still think they cover the 9 pts.) - LOCK = Philly -2.5 over the Giants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kleese Posted December 6, 2007 Author Share Posted December 6, 2007 Totally forgot my spread section-- just added it. Not that anyone would want to take my advice-- been a MAJOR cold streak the past few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kleese Posted December 6, 2007 Author Share Posted December 6, 2007 - Take the Bears & the (+3) points in a low scoring matchup. Bears should win turnover/field position battle and the Redskins just don't score enough touchdowns to be a favorite.- Upset for the week is S.F. over Minn. (If I'm wrong and the Niners lose, I still think they cover the 9 pts.) - LOCK = Philly -2.5 over the Giants 1. From a betting standpoint, I'd totally stay away from Redskins-Bears because of the emotional aspects I wrote about. I could honestly see this game tilting in almost any direction (close win either way, blowout either way, 20-13 type game either way). Of the 16 games to bet on this week, I'd put this near the bottom. 2. I kind of like the 49ers to cover as well, but I don't know how they will score. I'd lean that way, but it wouldn't be a strong play for me. 3. The spread I have is Eagles -3, so with that in mind, again, I'd probably stay away. I picked the Eagles to win by exactly 3, but that is far from a confident prediction. The 4 games I'd go with are the 4 I just listed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrockster21 Posted December 6, 2007 Share Posted December 6, 2007 Browns will cover with EASE this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrockster21 Posted December 6, 2007 Share Posted December 6, 2007 Oh, and Dallas has a 1 game cushion on Green Bay, not 2. So they are still playing for HFA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riggo-toni Posted December 6, 2007 Share Posted December 6, 2007 Dallas will blow out Detroit. Chicago will edge by us and effectively end our season tonight. I hope the Browns win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kleese Posted December 6, 2007 Author Share Posted December 6, 2007 Oh, and Dallas has a 1 game cushion on Green Bay, not 2. So they are still playing for HFA. 2 game cushion with the tie-breaker. The only way GB gets homefield is to PASS Dallas in the standings. They would need to make up 2 games over the next 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
royallypwned Posted December 6, 2007 Share Posted December 6, 2007 Oh, and Dallas has a 1 game cushion on Green Bay, not 2. So they are still playing for HFA. eh, it's a virtual 2 game lead since they own the tiebreaker. But either way, it's much too soon for them to have a week off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbuccaro Posted December 6, 2007 Share Posted December 6, 2007 1. From a betting standpoint, I'd totally stay away from Redskins-Bears because of the emotional aspects I wrote about. I could honestly see this game tilting in almost any direction (close win either way, blowout either way, 20-13 type game either way). Of the 16 games to bet on this week, I'd put this near the bottom. 2. I kind of like the 49ers to cover as well, but I don't know how they will score. I'd lean that way, but it wouldn't be a strong play for me. 3. The spread I have is Eagles -3, so with that in mind, again, I'd probably stay away. I picked the Eagles to win by exactly 3, but that is far from a confident prediction. The 4 games I'd go with are the 4 I just listed. - I would be surprised if the Skins played emotionally (in a postive way) tonight. They've got to be worn out from the travel, emotions, etc. And they just can't get it done this year. If they do win, I could see it being a replay of the Az. game. I think the Bears are a pretty solid way to start the week. - I like the niners simply because the Vikes don't play well on sloppy fields (never really have). I'm guessing S.F. will be pretty soggy - they've had some crazy weather there lately. Vikes did not fare well out there last year, only scoring 3 - Eagles were really banged up when they played NYG earlier this year. I think they had one of the stadium vendors at LT and no Westbrook. The Giants had their big win last week and I think Philly (still fighting for playoffs) will play much harder at home. Phi - 23, NYG - 16 On Your picks - I like Det. at home getting all those points. I can actually see them winning this, but I always have trouble going against Dallas because my hate for them clouds my vision. I could easily see Dallas spanking them as well. I disagree with the Chargers/Titans - think Ten. will win here. I think Rivers will struggle in Nashville. I could see Houston winning, but don't feel good enough to lay down the bucks there. I definitely think the Browns win the game vs. NYJ - but the ".5" in the "3.5" they're giving makes me want to stay away. But I could never take the Jets in this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrockster21 Posted December 6, 2007 Share Posted December 6, 2007 2 game cushion with the tie-breaker. The only way GB gets homefield is to PASS Dallas in the standings. They would need to make up 2 games over the next 4. eh, it's a virtual 2 game lead since they own the tiebreaker. But either way, it's much too soon for them to have a week off. If Dallas loses and Green Bay wins, they are tied in the standings but Dallas still has HFA. If Dallas loses and Green Bay wins again, GB passes them for HFA - after 2 games GB would be in the lead. Therefore they have a 1-game cushion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kleese Posted December 6, 2007 Author Share Posted December 6, 2007 If Dallas loses and Green Bay wins, they are tied in the standings but Dallas still has HFA. If Dallas loses and Green Bay wins again, GB passes them for HFA - after 2 games GB would be in the lead. Therefore they have a 1-game cushion. ?????? Dude, if the Packers go 4-0 the rest of the way, and Dallas goes 3-1, Dallas wins the HFA. In order for GB to pass Dallas, there has to be a TWO game difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drowland Posted December 6, 2007 Share Posted December 6, 2007 2 game cushion with the tie-breaker. The only way GB gets homefield is to PASS Dallas in the standings. They would need to make up 2 games over the next 4. It's really a 1.5 game lead. Ties are very rare, but they can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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