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In The End, The Draft Only Comes Down To 4 Possibilities


armada58

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If we trade down with Miami we will still be able to take to Landry. Because Atlanta might take Okoye. But they might take Landry so that leaves us with either Okoye or Landry or even another trade down(NE) only if Landry is still on the board.

Either way Im content.

If we trade with Miami, then that means that Miami moved into the 6th spot for Quinn. In that case, I would see The Vikings taking Landry and The Falcons taking Okoye. A trade with Miami helps us get more picks, but it almost certainly means we will not get Landry or Okoye.

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i think your wrong. theres just as good of a chance we trade down and take Patrick Willis at mlb, or even best available db (safety or cb).

No way. A trade down means we will most likely draft Branch, Carriker, Harrell or Jarvis Moss.

Sure, there's a CHANCE that we would draft Willis or a DB, but the whole point of my post is about what will MOST LIKELY happen. Patrick Willis being Drafted by Washington after trade down the draft board is a colossal long-shot.

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No way. A trade down means we will most likely draft Branch, Carriker, Harrell or Jarvis Moss.

Sure, there's a CHANCE that we would draft Willis or a DB, but the whole point of my post is about what will MOST LIKELY happen. Patrick Willis being Drafted by Washington after trade down the draft board is a colossal long-shot.

I'm saying I disagree with you though. I feel theres as much of a chance that we trade down for Willis as Branch, Carriker, Harrell, or Moss. It all depends on where we move to and who is available. We would take Willis over Harrell of Moss if Willis were available. All these rumors about Briggs and you don't think we are in the market for a lber??!?!?! You'd be nuts to think that. Especially with Fletchers age. It's the perfect grooming situation. Don't fall for the smoke and mirrors. They are everywhere.

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I think it is even simpler than that...

A. Trade up for CJ

B. Draft Laron Landry at #6.

C. Trade down for more picks.

The goal in drafting, at the end of the day, is to end up with 10 year players. Especially someone picked in round 1, you want not only 10 year players, but pro bowlers. CJ is a 99% chance that he will be 10 year and good chance to be a pro bowler. Landry is a 95% chance. When you start trying to figure out D-Lineman, it gets trickier (within this years' draft class) I wouldn't put Okoye, Branch, Anderson, Adams, etc. as hish as 95%. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have any one of them, but I see them at best around 90%.

Look, I'm left-brained and am known to quantify things that have no business being quantified, but I have to ask. What flux-capacitor are you using to come up with these numbers? If has the enough juice, what are %'s for the rest of the first round? Does your machine consider Landry being teamed with another Pro Bowl safety when calculating his 95% chance? Also, what year(s) do these percentages apply? And what are tonights winning Big5 numbers in VA?

Did this machine exist in 1999? What % did it give Lavar Arrington and Courtney Brown?

Thanks,

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I'm saying I disagree with you though. I feel theres as much of a chance that we trade down for Willis as Branch, Carriker, Harrell, or Moss. It all depends on where we move to and who is available. We would take Willis over Harrell of Moss if Willis were available. All these rumors about Briggs and you don't think we are in the market for a lber??!?!?! You'd be nuts to think that. Especially with Fletchers age. It's the perfect grooming situation. Don't fall for the smoke and mirrors. They are everywhere.

I just don't believe that, if we trade down, taking an MLB is even remotely close to the realm of statistical probability as trading down and grabbing the best DE or DT on the board.

I'm also not saying that it's impossible. I'm just saying that it's highly unlikely.

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Hmm option D and still get a Okoye, Branch, or Anderson and additional day one pick to also use on the either offensive or defensive line

Trading down and still getting Okoye is, in my opinion, the absolute best of all worlds here. I'm just not sure how likely that is to happen. Seems more of a long shot. It could happen if we swap with Vikings, though.

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3 weeks ago there was no way you could narrow it down like this. But we're officially close enough to the Draft that you can start to see through some of the smoke.

When you remove conspiracy theories, ridiculous ideas, and completely improbable strategies. The Redskins look like they will be making one of the following 4 moves on Saturday. (I'm talking specifically about the 1st Round). In no particular order.........

A. Trade up and draft Calvin Johnson

B. Stay at #6 and take Laron Landry

C. Stay at #6 and take Amobi Okoye

D. Trade down and take the best D-Lineman available.

I gotta be honest, I won't be upset about any one of these actually taking place. I know that Option A thru Option D has been individually debated on this board to no end. Those horses are long dead and thouroughly beaten. So I'm not going to delve into the merits of each option. I prefer to take a broader picture and simply say, "You know what, it all boils down to these options." So I figured I'd rank 'em..........

This is the rank for what I think they SHOULD do.

D

C

B

A

This is the rank for I think they WILL do.

B

C

D

A

Like I said, I really won't be upset if any one of these options turns into reality. I'm looking forward to Saturday.

:point2sky :helmet: :point2sky

Remember this: Okoye=PROJECT

Landry=Wasted Pick

What am I talking here is your narrow-mindedness with our #6 pick. We don't need an undersize DT or a Wanna Be Sean Taylor, we can't afford it.

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3 weeks ago there was no way you could narrow it down like this. But we're officially close enough to the Draft that you can start to see through some of the smoke.

When you remove conspiracy theories, ridiculous ideas, and completely improbable strategies. The Redskins look like they will be making one of the following 4 moves on Saturday. (I'm talking specifically about the 1st Round). In no particular order.........

A. Trade up and draft Calvin Johnson

B. Stay at #6 and take Laron Landry

C. Stay at #6 and take Amobi Okoye

D. Trade down and take the best D-Lineman available.

I gotta be honest, I won't be upset about any one of these actually taking place. I know that Option A thru Option D has been individually debated on this board to no end. Those horses are long dead and thouroughly beaten. So I'm not going to delve into the merits of each option. I prefer to take a broader picture and simply say, "You know what, it all boils down to these options." So I figured I'd rank 'em..........

This is the rank for what I think they SHOULD do.

D

C

B

A

This is the rank for I think they WILL do.

B

C

D

A

Like I said, I really won't be upset if any one of these options turns into reality. I'm looking forward to Saturday.

:point2sky :helmet: :point2sky

In terms of trading down, on ESPN.com's live mock draft (going on right now), John Clayton says that it would only take a 3rd rounder and a throw-in pick to make it happen. I really can't see the Skins settling for less than a 2nd rounder.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft07/news/story?id=2848586

Moderator: The Dolphins are up and we have a question from Scott in New York ... In your opinion what is the best case scenario for Miami in this years draft? As a fan I would love to see them land Quinn, but am not optimistic about it. Thanks for your time, and I enjoy both of your work.

John Clayton, ESPN.com senior NFL writer: Ideally they could trade from No. 9 to No. 6 for a third-round choice and a throw-in pick to get Quinn. They then can get Trent Green as the starter sometime in June without having to give up a draft choice. If they don't do that, they need some luck to get Levi Brown past the Falcons. They are looking for two new starters along the offensive line and Brown would be the ideal left tackle. After that, they might look at a cornerback, which wouldn't be great at this stage of the draft.

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Remember this: Okoye=PROJECT

Landry=Wasted Pick

What am I talking here is your narrow-mindedness with our #6 pick. We don't need an undersize DT or a Wanna Be Sean Taylor, we can't afford it.

I guess I could put you firmly in the "D" category.

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