Conn

These late mocks from semi-plugged in guys sometimes reveal things. This would keep a QB out of NYG…would hate to root against Marvin Harrison Jr. there but that’s still better than a potential franchise QB

The fact the Bengals haven’t even attempted to talk contract with Higgins in over a year (which had already been reported a while ago) is such BS from that organization. Not even a good faith effort to keep the guy, they just want to control his rights for a while longer. May as well trade him

Okay, I didn’t say we wouldn’t “need to” if we want to move up for a particular OT—I said I wouldn’t. And to emphasize that, I said I’d still have to think about it even if it was only a 2nd and 3rd. A 2nd and 3rd could certainly get us from 36 up into the late 20’s, btw. If that’s what they wanted. But again, I’m not sure I’d do it. Would have to see who else is falling. I don’t think we’d be open to giving up a future 1st, but who knows. Maybe Peters wants to get crazy and get into the top-15 and keep 40. But I doubt it.

There’s a QB thread. This one is mostly for people to get away from that madness and talk about every other position, FYI

Jinxes are not real. It’s okay to realistically talk about concerns we have with prospects. That’s a real one. No one is wishing injury on the guy. Simply afraid of his small frame.

I wouldn’t trade both our 2nds to trade up for a LT. I might trade a 2nd and 3rd, but still doubtful I’d want to. If 8-10 OT really go off the board before we pick at 36, there are going to be some absolute studs available at other positions, in a good draft class. We need OT badly but I’m not passing up that talent, draft a developmental OT later. We need Pro Bowlers and All-Pro’s.

1. I bet Griffin has watched this over 100 times in the last 10 years. I say this in more of a sad way than funny way. 2. This is interesting, but watching this, Daniels appears faster and twitchier than RG3, easily. Went back to RG3’s Baylor highlights as well to make sure this wasn’t just a college defensive speed vs NFL defensive speed thing…interesting. I didn’t expect that.

Excellent as well in Fringe, for those sci-fi fans among us. Holds up extremely well to this day, just rewatched it last year

34 myself, and I think with a couple of the young dumbasses of recent years banned, our age cohort is probably the youngest with real representation here. Which makes sense given message board age demographics. So those Gibbs II + Shanahan playoff teams were our “glory years” which is brutal. Gotta be pretty gratifying that almost any other team would have been more fun to root for in the past 15 years than Washington, but arguably one of the only other complete duds (other than one AFC championship run) was Jacksonville. So you somehow didn’t make a -EV move changing teams to Washington in the mid-2000’s lol, a relative miracle So if you’re 31 I think there’s a decent chance that I was actually correct calling you being the youngest (active) member here. We had something like a 26-27 year old who got himself banned last year.

At least we aren’t the awkward unprofessional stfu team anymore

This post makes me think that you may be the youngest person on the board. Think our membership is mostly 35+ and heavily weighted towards the 45+ end of that spectrum. Not surprising at all that everyone here remembers the 2012 RG3 season

I’ve lived in Boston about a decade now. Last year I made the mistake of attending a work party at Lucky Strike the night of the draft. I figured, hey, I like to watch in solitude and really dig into it but some of my employees are football fans, and the draft will be up on huge projector screens, etc. It can’t be that bad, right? One of my employees is a huge Patriots fan and I had to sit with him at the bar as we took Forbes after I was openly ecstatic that Gonzalez was still there…and then his Pats took the guy one pick later. I was miserable

I don’t think it’s about investing energy, it’s about installing operational security forever more moving forward as an organization. The last regime was not just full of leaks, it was an open book. Setting the tone going forward and holding people in the building to that level of secrecy is not really any special allocation of time, energy, or resources—it’s just setting a new standard that people are expected to follow. It’s not about tricking anyone, just being hard for everyone to read always. And I’m not really talking about whether we take Daniels or not—lack of leaks was achieved either way and sets the bar going forward.

These guys live off of draft pedigree with casuals for a long time unless they’re extremely visible like a QB. People were still acting like Young was a stud until literally the SF playoff run when it became clear he was an empty skinsack who just happened to look like the prospect they thought would be a stud 4 years earlier. People who don’t watch these guys don’t know

The final seal is broken. Maye will now be the pick. Thank you for your sacrifice

You think he put on 20-25 lbs for his pro day? lol

It’s a more admirable trait to just be able to say with grace that you were wrong or miscommunicated your point, FYI

Did you forget that as part of your argument you posted about Trey Lance vs Brock Purdy and then said that “the league is littered with high round draft busts and low round successes at QB”. That’s the entire reason I’m comparing hit rate in the top-5 to hit rate in the late rounds. Because that was your argument, which is what I’ve been trying to dismantle because it’s extremely incorrect, and the numbers on a large scale are clear. You are much much much more likely to hit in the top-5 than in the late rounds. If you’ve agreed with that the entire time then I don’t know why you’d waste time making anecdotal arguments about Lance vs Purdy and mention how many late round QB successes the league sees (the reality is it’s very very few). It’s a percentages game, no one would be crazy enough to say that any of these top guys are can’t miss prospects. So what are you arguing exactly, and why bring up late round QB anomalies.

How do you survive on the internet

It’s not really what you were saying, you explicitly said you thought there was probably a slight lean but you “don’t think there’s an overwhelming hit vs miss ratio”. There is though. Even if the hit rate on a top-5 QB is only 10-15% (that’s probably lowballing it, but being extremely conservative for the sake of argument) that is immensely higher than a mid-late round QB having like a .1-.5% chance to hit or whatever. And the numbers are that stark. But yes, we agree that overall the hit rate is always low. The difference in degrees is staggering though, is my point. It absolutely matters if you want a real shot at a franchise QB.

You were and are still wrong about this. He only blew off the live interview because he had a feeling we were not in fact going to hire him. He was not the favorite the media painted him to be and then bombed his zoom interview with us and with Seattle. He preferred to go back on the market in the future as someone who rejected all attempts to hire him, than risk being rejected by us in favor of Quinn and looking less desirable. Quinn was basically the favorite all along, which Keim essentially reported early in the process when he was trying to get fans to cool their jets on Ben Johnson. We just didn’t want to listen until it became obvious.

That’s still just anecdotal evidence. The empirical evidence is in fact overwhelming. We’ve talked about it many times over the years on this board, the research on it is extensive and conclusive. It’s not about having a high hit rate at the top of the draft—the hit rate is low across the board, objectively. But there are levels to it. The chance to hit on a high 1st rounder is astronomically higher than any QB in the rest of the draft hitting. You are exponentially more likely to hit with a high QB draft pick. There’s a reason you can instantly name all of the modern QB’s who break this rule: Russ, Kirk, Dak, Brady, seemingly Purdy now. If you’re being generous and want to go back like 25 years, you can say Brees as the 33rd pick. Late 1st gives you Rodgers, Lamar, MAYBE Love if we’re being generous. It’s extremely rare and more than half those guys are aging out of the league already, or already retired, or about to be. So it’s getting even less common as time goes by. In the mid-late rounds, there are dozens upon dozens of flameouts for every hit on even a backup QB—if you want a great franchise QB, the hit rate is infinitesimally small. It’s a much much higher chance in the top-10 picks. Less in the mid-late 1st. But incredibly more likely than hitting on a mid-late round franchise QB. The memorable busts are just all high picks and the nothing mid-late round picks just fade from memory every year. But when you zoom out, the numbers are clear.

I don’t expect you to care because I’m nobody, but you are moments from being blocked because you don’t know how a message board conversation works. Go back and read what you typed, that I quoted. Then read what I said. Then respond. Or keep just saying random stuff that has nothing to do with why I quoted you in the first place, and I’ll wish you well.

This has nothing to do with what you posted or what I responded to. Please keep up with your own posts—think this is the second time I’ve requested it from you

Because you’re projecting and think everyone is as biased as you seem to be. The majority of people who prefer Maye to Daniels would prefer Caleb to Maye. Whether it’s working or not, most people posting in favor of Maye imo are attempting to be objective.