Going Commando

1 minute ago, FrFan said:

Our GM and coaching staff are much better than theirs. I believe they can make our offense quite lethal, and of course some players will improve ( McLaurin / Dotson ).

As @HTTRDynasty said this guy must be a Commanders fan, I do agree he 's probablys overestimating us but it's always good to get some positive vibes.

Positive vibes are a nice change, but I just want to establish realistic expectations for the year.  When we set them too high, it tends to cause very harsh negative reactions.  There might be a Bryce Young scenario for Jayden's rookie season where he struggles to adjust to the NFL, and doesn't have the surrounding support necessary for early success.  And that's OK.  Most great QBs either weren't very good as rookies, or didn't play at all.  We just need to stick to the long term plan with Jayden, and build the best possible cradle for his development.  This is going to be a learning year, we're probably not going to be that competitive yet, and we still have a lot of building to do in order to become contenders.

10 minutes ago, Xameil said:

Just a friendly tip...calling people out like that is against the rules. Ya may wanna edit before you get in trouble.

The call out thread rule is about creating threads that call out posters for personal vendettas.  That's not what I did.  I criticized that poster for his passive aggressive behavior in this thread.  I've seen people post this criticism before because we had two posters who thumbs downed posts without bothering to write their own takes all of the time.

@ILikeBilly2 it's chicken **** and worse than useless to 👎 posts you don't like while contributing nothing to the discussion of your own.

17 hours ago, FrFan said:

Sorry, Bears fans. While I expect No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams to post impressive numbers for Chicago, I am even more intrigued by the statistics the dual-threat Daniels might generate in Kliff Kingsbury's offense in D.C. 

Much has been made about the Bears' weapons (and for good reason), but the Commanders' runners, receivers and tight ends are arguably just as talented. If Daniels can stay healthy, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner will justify this pick and lead this year's celebrated quarterback class in passing yards and touchdowns.

Saying our offensive skill players are just as good as Chicago's is an outrageous overestimation of our surrounding talent.  Maybe our backs are kind of close, but almost anyone would take Swift/Herbert/Roschon over our three guys.  TE is not a good position for us next year unless Sinnott breaks out way earlier than TEs typically do.  And everyone would take Odunze/Moore/Allen over McLaurin/Dotson/McCaffrey.  Their third guy is probably better than Terry.  Beyond that, their OL is way better than ours too, with high end tackles and guards that have already been together and were the second best OL behind Philly in block win rates last year.  Set aside the question of who is better between Jayden and Caleb, there is no question that the Bears have a better surrounding roster.  I think people have assumed that Caleb is walking into this terrible situation because his coach might be a lame duck.  But I think it's more likely that they saved the coaching staff by pulling in one of the prospects of the decade, and that their roster is already built up and looks like a future power team.  The biggest thing working against them is the quality of their division, but ours isn't a cake walk either.

This reminds me of 2012 when everyone underestimated the quality of the Colts roster surrounding Luck, and overestimated ours.  We seemed to be right there with them for one year, mainly because RGIII individually outplayed Luck that one season, and Morris was special in that system and situation.  But it quickly became very apparent that the Colts roster was much better than ours.  Expectations for Jayden's rookie year are getting set too high.  We have a ton of building on offense left to do.

TBH most of Rob Rang's picks felt like edgy, inaccurate takes.  Nabers is walking into the worst situation of all of the WRs taken in the top 34 picks.  There is no world where Cade Stover ends up being better than Brock Bowers, I don't care who is throwing them the ball.  They weren't even remotely close in college and that was with CJ Stroud and Stetson Bennett as the QBs in question.  Fashanu over Latham and Alt is putting a lot of unwarranted trust in the Jets.  And I like Corum way more than Benson for multiple reasons.  Kyren Williams is easier to compete with for touches than James Conner, McVay is a way better coach than Gannon, and that Rams offense is stacked compared to Arizona's, especially the passing game.  Corum will get to play complimentary football for a Superbowl contender.  Haynes as the top guard feels more justifiable, but even still, JPJ is the clear choice.  Beebe at center for Dallas probably ends up being right though.  It's interesting that they moved him to that position.  Kind of feels like an even better fit for him than Guard, and that he can compete with Linderbaum and Humphrey for All Pro selections.  Dallas is getting perilously close to one seed territory.  I don't understand how they can afford to keep such a stacked roster together.

58 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

Im going to be making this reference all season lol 

 

Hopefully 

I thought the point of Paul's character in Dune was that he was a false messiah of a fake religion seeded onto a planet to control the population and co-opt them into participating in a larger imperial power struggle.

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Peters though isn't dictating the offense.  As he said before he caters to the coaches scheme.

 

There was some ex-player who played for Kliff forgetting whom who said that Robinson is the ideal running back for his scheme. 

 

From what I read he does a mix of gap and zone, with an edge toward gap -- counters, duo.  Counter mixed with outside zone to keep teams off balance.

 

They didn't draft a RB, so I am guessing they like this RB room.   

They should install a gap centric scheme, that's what the personnel dictates.  But Peters has been evaluating for zone systems for half his career, and that will naturally shape the way anyone evaluates players.  He's going to want to bring in players who match the stuff that worked really well for his teams before, which is why I think he liked Sinnott and McCaffrey so much.  I could see the offense drifting to increasing similarity with SF's over time.

The other thing is we did sign Ekeler, and it's not very clear what B Rob's role is going to be moving forward.  Is he still going to start?  Ekeler is kind of a big fish if you think last year was just a write off due to injury.  Personally, I think Ekeler is slowing down and that Robinson is a better player than him now, but it's hard to be sure.  Only thing I'm sure about is that Robinson is not a good fit for a SF running game because he's not a bursty and decisive one cut runner.  He's a patient, pick your way up field that's really good at following pulls and running from shotgun.  I do trust Kingsbury to install a scheme that suits him, because I suspect that Kingsbury is going to find out quickly that Robinson is his best weapon outside of Jayden's own dynamic playmaking ability.  Similar to how Peters is bringing in people similar to what worked well for him before, Kingsbury will probably want to create something similar to the Murray/Conner engine he built his offense upon in Arizona.

13 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Wylie is hot garbage. I do agree that he would probably be better in gap scheme. But there is nothing average about him at all. He was abysmal last season. 

This just isn't true.  And we did run mostly gap schemes last year, and actually ran the ball pretty well when we designed to do so.  But as for Wylie, every objective measure has him at average.  Mostly quiet play with a couple of bad losses peppered in each game is what average OT play looks like in the NFL, especially when you're running a ton of shotgun spread where the OL is in a true pass set all game.  Every team racks up pressures from that style of play, including the ones with high end OLs like KC and Detroit. 

Wylie and the OL were scapegoated last season because fans had an agenda about defending Howell when he was struggling, and judging from the posts about Wylie in here, that narrative stuck.  So how about reframing the discussion about Wylie now that fans have a new agenda to defend Adam Peters: after overhauling 70% of the roster, do you really think Peters would have left Wylie as one of the very few untouched starters from last year if he was garbage?  Not only is Wylie keeping his job, they didn't even really draft or sign anyone to push him.  He and Cosmi and McLauren and maybe Daron are the only guys on the entire roster for whom that's the case.

I think I've actually been more critical of Peters than anyone else here, especially when it comes to the Brandon Coleman pick and the missed opportunities for OLs in the draft.  Yet even I think the decision to keep Wylie as a starter is fine.

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

This is why analytics and PFF both can be laughingstocks. 

Wylie is underrated in the sense that a lot of fans think he's unplayable garbage when he's really just a league average starter.  He's a fourth or fifth linemen on a good line who seems worse than he is because our line is bad and generated so few wins.  For someone to be the most underrated player on a roster, they need to be a good player by a broader standard.  To me that's B-Rob for us.  But I do think there is some question about his scheme fit moving forward.  I like his style a lot better for a gap scheme, and there might be a chance we'll run a zone heavy scheme instead because of Peters's history in SF.  We'll see what Kingsbury installs this year.

2 hours ago, DWinzit said:

They do keep bringing in WR's, mostly semi bottom feeding hoping for hits.

They should not stop as the overall talent level at WR isn't that great.

They're banking a lot on Luke McCaffrey.  As of today, he's our WR3, and Dotson as the WR2 feels almost as speculative.  It's a WR room with some upside, but not a lot of bankability, which is a frustrating lack of progress from where we were when Dwayne Haskins was the QB in 2019.  Most teams do the opposite and try and bring in stud vet WRs when they are developing high draft pick QBs.  This is something we're probably going to have to do too, unless Dotson and McCaffrey are shockingly good.

12 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

 Are you underestimating Tyler Lockett or setting the bar for Dotson high. Lockett is a little older now but if Jahan reached Tyler's career one day, then he would have been a good pick in the 1st. rd. for sure is what I think. I would take a Tyler Lockett type WR any day. 

Lockett wasn't much of a receiver until his fourth season when he was 26.  Jahan has already posted similar production to Lockett's first two years and he came into the NFL a year younger.  I don't think that is too high a bar for Jahan to reach, especially not as his best case scenario.  It would also be a pretty major disappointment if Jahan didn't break out until he was 26.  He kind of needs to do it this year.  Definitely has to if he wants his fifth year picked up.

Hartman has that dog in him.  Keep him over Driskell for the third QB.

38 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Ekeler balled out in the opener last year but then got hurt and had to play the rest of the season injured and on an absolute mess of a Charger team(they actually had worse coaching than us if we you can believe that). I'm excited to see what he can do if healthy.

Ekeler is turning 29 and coming off a three ypc season where he looked slow.  This is pretty much what the cliff looks like for backs.  Moments of old magic are still there, but the general effectiveness and consistency just disappear abruptly.  He's never been a workhorse back either, more of a pass catching and red zone specialist.  At this point in each of their careers, B Rob is much better than him, and Jayden will probably carry the ball more than Ekeler.  I see him as third in the pecking order, and more likely to make his impact as a pass catcher and locker room presence.

Terry played through turf toe.  And he definitely got frozen out by Howell and Bieniemy.  Howell never really trusted him and Bieniemy's system sucked for receivers.  Despite all of that, he still got his thousand yards.

Jahan has somewhat low upside because of his lack of size and strength, although he does have weirdly strong red zone ability for a tiny receiver because he is so good at playing above the rim.  He's not going to have a Nico Collins type of break out because of the lack of play strength though.  His best case scenario is probably Tyler Lockett with a red zone game, which would be huge for us.  Wish we would use him in the return game.  He's the best return man on our roster now that Gibson is gone.

I do think that Jayden will be very good for Jahan at least, as long as Jayden hits the ground running.  You don't want to play a bunch of man coverage against Jayden because of his incredibly dangerous run threat, which should free Jahan up to get off the line of scrimmage.  You also don't necessarily want to play a ton of two high against Jayden for the same reason, and Terry is the one who will dictate the high safety, so Jahan is going to get a lot of one on ones.  The table is set for him to have success.  He just needs to run his routes like a stud and catch the ball.

We could use more speed at WR though.  Speed is what defines Miami and KC and we don't have anyone in our offense with elite speed other than Jayden.  Jayden's a gifted vertical passer, we need multiple guys who can smoke one on one coverage deep to take advantage of this.

We also need a way better OL.  We need a group that can hold up forever in pass pro, and I'm still not sure what kind of run game we are installing.  I'd consider totally reshuffling the line.  Cosmi is our best pass protector and our fastest OL.  Braeden Daniels our second fastest one.  We also know Wylie has an issue with over setting.  Why not try Cosmi and Daniels at our tackle spots and move Wylie inside then?  Especially if you want to run outside zone a lot.

8 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Love B Rob. But Ekeler is going to get a significant amount of touches. Would love to see some 2 back sets with both on the field though. Move Ekeler in motion to get him open. 

That would be a really nice outcome, but I think Ekeler is going over his cliff.  I think he was brought in mainly as a mentor and third down pass catcher.  At this point BRob is probably a way better player than him.

13 minutes ago, Bifflog said:

Realistically, it's likely the new staff salvages at least one Ron pick into a good player, and I think Dotson seems far more likely than Forbes or Davis.  I liked everything about him his rookie year, clearly was a better fit for Turner's offense (which was pretty sad in it's own right, but in different ways to EB's).

Jamin Davis is already pretty decent.  PFF grades him a 67 last year, which is kind of amazing given how bad the defense was.  If he doesn't stick around, it will likely be due to a numbers game--not wanting to spend too much on LB after signing Luvu, or having Magee break out. But I could also see him having a good year if he can stay healthy.  He's one of our only big players on defense, and he's going to benefit from not having to play inside now that we've got Wagner and Luvu.  At least one of those two should be on the field at all times, unless we get really unlucky with injuries.

Dotson and Forbes are the ones who need to be reclaimed, and I think both will get significantly better under the new coaches.  Dotson seems to have had a personal issue with Bieniemy and Howell, and Forbes was being set up to fail by the last regime in a way that almost seemed intentional.  Joe Whitt is going to figure out how to get Forbes playing well.

I think the dude who is going to explode under the new regime is B Rob though.  For many reasons.  His position coach is going to max out his talent, he's splitting the load with a former All Pro, Jayden is going to give him light boxes + we're going to lean on him to carry the offense while Jayden learns the game, and he's due for his big third year leap.  Somehow he was already pretty good last season despite not getting many opportunities.  Just seems like there are a lot of parallels between him and James Conner, and that he could be due for one of those 1000+ scrimmage yards and 15 td seasons.

Is that Marcus Rosemy Jacksaint between Jayden and Sinnott?  Kind of surprised at how small he looks.  Same for Coleman, he looks smaller than Sinnott.  Maybe Sinnott is just huge.

Just now, FootballZombie said:

 

Those tracker things prolly chaff something fierce.

 

If I'm getting paid millions I'd choose being comfy over a bad look.

Just wear it under the shirt.  Accept it for what it is.

The male sports bra is my least favorite trend in athliesure fashion.  Now Forbes is wearing one outside of a shirt?  Wtf

Beside that, wearing a strand of pearls barely stands out.

3 hours ago, Ball Security said:

I’ll never figure out basketball prospects. They talk up Cody Williams, but this guy couldn’t score a point in the play-in game and was left off the court altogether in closing time.

It's such a leap of growth that people project with basketball prospects.  Sometimes it pans out, but mostly it doesn't.  For every Scottie Barnes there are ten more Kevin Knoxes and Cam Reddishes.  People consistently overrate mediocre shot creation in 6'7+ perimeter players.  They think being able to straight line drive to the basket without tripping over your own feet and having a shot that's not completely broken is the most valuable and projectable trait in a basketball player, meanwhile the kid is completely passive and has zero gravity and took four shots a game for his college or euro team and is a complete nonfactor on the boards and on defense.  And the 7'8 giant that nobody in his level of basketball can score over or defend without fouling is worthless unless he can switch over top of screens onto point guards and drain stepback threes.

14 hours ago, Ball Security said:

We could draft Clingan at number two or wait until he bounces around the league and grab him like Alex Len, Greg Monroe, or Marvin Bagley.

 

(I’m not saying don’t draft him, just saying he is likely to bust like any of the perimeter players.

I don't think he's as likely to bust, but yeah, there is bust potential in all of these prospects.  The upside against risk ratio is more favorable for giants like Clingan and Sarr though.  They can dominate games without scoring, and they will fit in with every single team that needs a defensive anchor.

I don't want us to keep hitching our wagon to perimeter players who are huge negatives on defense any more.  None of the ones in this class are dominant enough to build another unbalanced roster around anyway.  Just get the anchor and then next year we can try again for a better perimeter player to build the offense around.  7'2 guys who totally dominate the paint and can still guard out to the perimeter are rare tickets to 50 win seasons.

Just pick Sarr or Clingan.  We need to be able to control the paint to beat any of these playoff teams.  None of these guards or wings are going to be transcendent players.  Get the foundation big and try again for the elite perimeter player next year.

Trying to win with the kinds of bigs we've had for the past 30 years is like trying to win in the NFL with total garbage for your OL and DL.  It's just never going to happen.  Get off the treadmill and pick a big that's actually worth building around.  Then hedge your bets with Edey in the late first just in case he's the next Jokic.  I swear to God if we talk ourselves into some soft ass Euro wing because we think we've got something with Kuzma and Bagley, I will never watch another Wizards game again.

Pick Clingan.  Or pick Sarr.  Whichever one plays better defense.  Then use 26 to pick Edey.  Get the seven footer right and the rest of the rebuild takes care of itself.  Our front court is low upside trash and can't play any defense at all, and we will never win anything until that changes, no matter what's going on with our wings and guards.

On 5/10/2024 at 9:07 PM, skinny21 said:

Agree about his release, which is what I was alluding to regarding “in time”.  I’m not sure I follow the vertical element piece though, what am I missing beyond the combo of speed/quickness (and release)?

He barely ran any deep breaking routes at Rice.  They used him as an underneath zone and flat weapon, where the vast majority of his breaks are coming within ten yards of the line of scrimmage.  I don't think he has the speed and shiftiness and route savvy to be a vertical threat in an offense.  I've read he also struggles with beating press, but I didn't really see a lot of press coverage in his cut ups.  Mostly he was running through zones.

The concepts he ran in college were very reminiscent of the kind of role that a TE tends to run.  I guess it's similar to what Ed did back in the day.  There was a lot of slot alignment, and even looked like some h-back alignments.  A bit of wildcat QB, but not much effectiveness from that.  He doesn't have TE size, but he has TE toughness, and I could see him also developing into a very good blocker like his dad, which that plus the Sinnott pick makes me think that Kingsbury is going to run a SF style outside zone run game.

My favorite Jerzhan Newton factoid is that he had 104 tackles, 30 TFLs, and 16 sacks as a high school Senior.  Those are the stats I'd get from playing Madden on rookie with the blocking sliders turned down.  One of the most underrated talents in defensive linemen is the ability to find the football--playing through your match ups is the meta game, not just beating the blocks in front of you--and Newton is about as good as it gets at this.  I've been thinking of him as a Javon Hargrave type of DL, but I think he might be better given how ridiculous his individual production is.  I think he's a mini Derrick Brown/Jonathan Allen.

7 minutes ago, bird_1972 said:

 

Agree with your take except for the last sentence. Newton has a boot on his foot. Didn't know he had surgery - apparently 5 months ago (still in the boot). That might have been a reach pick for us now. 

I think he'll get healthy.  He's a special player that is cartoonishly productive when he's out there.  He could have a 60 tackle season as our third IDL.