The Consigliere

Also worth noting, the '22 class sucks, we really don't want to do a '19 redux, and just draft a QB because we need one even if the class sucks. Get the QB this year, this is the draft, this or '23, lol.

Im kinda surprised at how cheap trade ups have been for QB's in recent years. Needless to say, if all I needed to offer was our 1st, next years first and something else, I'd say done before this sentence was ended with this period. I'm speaking of Fields. I'd trade up for Lance as well, but if Fields falls, I'd be significantly more aggressive. I wonder what last thing we'd need to add to jump ahead of teams that are in that 9-16 zone?

😄

And btw, I eat my misses gladly. I liked the freaking Josh Doctson pick, I screamed bloody murder that we took Scherrf over Leonard Williams (seems like a push now, but probably a win when you consider it pushed the Giants into reaching for Flowers), I thought Ramsey would eventually be league average, I hated taking Sean Taylor over a QB or trading down (my plan was Udeze/Wilfork), I actually talked myself into the troika of pass catching busts we took in the 2nd in '08, I was fine with the RGIII trade (and still am and still would be for another similar trade for Fields), I had no idea who the heck the DB's were that we drafted late on day 3 in recent years and smashed on (Curl and the poor kid out of Va Tech that had to retire). I miss on plenty, and I own it. I hated the hell out of the McLaurin pick, and am happy as hell we hit on it, but still think it was a 90% bad process pick (him hitting is the biggest outlier hit at WR in a decade, but he did provide a caveat for future WR evaluations: sometimes guys don't break out because they play at Ohio State/Clemson/Georgia/Alabama etc. Then again Ruggs was McLaurin, the bust version, so he showed you how it could go wrong in the same way N'Keal Harry and Tee Higgins were basically the same prospect, with the same liability (lack a second gear and top end speed to separate. Doesn't matter for Higgins, he already looks like a pro bowler, while Harry now looks more like an in line TE lol). Oh and btw, while I nailed AJ Brown in '19 (and had him everywhere, just like Godwin and Juju the year before (well Juju I couldn't trade up for so i only had him on 2 teams), I loved Harry and had him #1 like everyone else in that class. Whoops. For those on the DK Metcalf tip, do remember, he didn't have a single healthy season in college, no profile, and no route tree, he was a deep threat who played like 4-6 games tops a year with an immaculate body and athleticism, it was madness he fell as far as he did, but there was a reason he wasn't going #1. It's harder to justify why AJ Brown went where he went as his college career was basically and the analytical statistical embodiment of DK Metcalf's freakish body. Anyway, I'm babbling. I will own my stupid needless to say, if I miss on Fiels, I'll own it, I loved Josh rosen after all (and still think Darnold is an interesting speculative venture if he's a day 3 pick trade target or late compensatory zone day 2 guy).

Yeah, I'd sell the house for Fields needless to say. Someone is going to straight up steal him in the draft, and it's gonna be like us and other teams passing on Herbert, and even more closely, everyone league wide passing on Russell Wilson who ended up the best in the '12 class (in fairness, I always thought Luck was better, just sabotaged by a totally incompetent F.O., but Wilson became a clear HOF talent years ago, and Luck still had more to prove, Colts fault or not, before he retired, so Wilson gets the GOAT of that class). I am convinced that at worst, teams are going to get an elite passing QB with dual threat talent in Fields, and they're gonna get him after 2-3 vastly inferior talents go ahead of him to idiot teams that have no clue what they're doing. From time to time there are clear moments like this in drafts. The trio of RB's that inexplicably went in the top 10 in '05 (Caddy, Ronnie and the late Cedric), the '11 QB class that was high comedy, the pair of WTF FSU QB's that went first round when anyone who ever watched them knew they were busts predraft (Ponder and Manuel). The Gabbert and Bortles classes where most fans rightly were "what in the actual <expletive>" are Blake and Blaine doing at the top of QB classes in 2 of like 3 years. You can see some of this coming a mile away. The fact that Wentz, and Goff are now kinda, "ehhh, we'll trade you them just to get them off the roster" is not surprising when they screamed "REACH" in their class (I warmed to Wentz eventually, but as a Cal alum, Goff always struck me as a placeholder QB, good enough to start, and no more). Trubisky was always a kind of, "Ummm, I guess, how many games has he done this for and why do we think he's better than Watson?". Fields is gonna be one of those guys where looking back you go, "How in the hell did they take, this guy, that guy, and this other guy ahead of him." Maybe he ends up not living to the promise I see (top 10 QB every year like Wilson), but he's damn near bust proof to me. All the other guys other than Lawrence are at best 50/50 or less, Haskins style prospects (I like Lance just because, if he hits, he's gonna be a "HOLY ----!!!!!" level talent, at least he's that. Mac Jones, and BYU Rich Boy? Please.

Me neither. I'm borderline out on my redskins fandom for a while, but Mills is at least intriguing. The #1 Dropback in his QB class, Covid wrecks what would've been his first full season as a starter, so you have a chance here to potentially draft a guy who might have been a first rounder in '22, at a discount in a loaded '21 class. It's interesting, I'll give it that. I'd rather have a QB who can move more, but at least he has the raw skill set to do the job. I don't have a clear idea of where he's projected. Sounds like he's got a grade somewhere in the 40-80 zone in terms of draft slot overall, but I have no feel. If we could get him in round 3 I'd like it a lot more than in round 1. But after the big guys are gone, he's the only one I have the slightest interest in, otherwise I'd just pass and tank for the '23 class which is impossible lol.

I wonder if part of it is that the '22 class is not good, it's '13, '14, '19 (if Kyler played baseball instead) redux. Guys in that second and third tier of this class are basically at least as good as next years guys. Mills is a former 5 star recruit, would have had a cleaner, more interesting profile to look at w/o Covid, now maybe you get a discount on him because of the short Pac-12 season. Rivals had him as the #1 pro style QB in his recruiting class. espn had him #2 pro style, 247sports (i think scout.com) also had him #1 for pro style QB recruits. In terms of pedigree, he's the value of the draft if you can get him day 2.

The Dak deal is the smart deal, the idiotic deal was the Zeke deal. You do not give RB's a second contract, let other idiots make the mistake of signing a RB just in time for him to hit the age cliff (in fairness to Zeke, his decline in '20 on a per game basis was 1000% linked to Dak's injury, it would not surprise me if Zeke had a bit of a bounce back this year). Franchise QB money is gonna go nuts soon enough as the next tv deal may come close to doubling up the previous deal. That means everything goes up, including QB's. The best time to sign/resign a FA QB is now, before that money floods the market. Dallas aint winning anything with that D, so they built up a strength, the offense, which is loaded with 2 legit starting RB's, 2 legit TE's, and 3 legit WR's, and an OL, that when healthy is still good. They'll just have to use the KC model and try to outscore everyone before saving money by cutting Zeke in a year or two, and some other guys (Amari, I'm looking at you).

Was listening to Matt Kelley last week and he was laughing about how so many of the mock guys with major media are 1000% lost on how to do the mocks because they haven't had nearly as much access to scouts, and insiders are they normally do, and as a result, they're boards are a total mess, it sounds like the lack of a combine, and basic social distancing requirements are making a huge mess out of valuations, and plotted out boards to help assist in strategy with trading up and down and expectations. A lot of the kind of bonehead panic picks of drafts past where teams were surprised by a pick, and forced a need pick in a panic rather than going off their tiered value boards really seem like they could happen. Also explains why Toney is so much higher than he should be (personal opinion, but I think his rating is beyond idiotic). Very curious about how it plays out. Really bummed we've moved out so many of our guys in such an unstable year.

This approach almost never works. The vast majority of vet QB's never hit free agency so no they aren't always out there (if you mean good ones), and when they do, the bidding war tends to lead them to teams that are willing to pay and contend, and we're not able to address both of those topics honestly AND unlike Brees in '05, only 2 of those guys are young, 1 is in his prime (but is mediocre+), I just don't see any of them looking at the worst owner in the NFL with no franchise relevance in thirty years, and say, "I want to go there". End of the line guys, sure, but not guys looking to top off their career like Brady just did. Lastly, this means you skip the NFL cheat code which is a franchise QB on a rookie deal that renders your cap, heaven set for 5 years.

It's not high. Drafts have tiers, the preset values are based on the NFL from decades ago, all drafts are different, '22 sucks at QB, and isn't great at WR and is awful at RB, the current draft is shallow but strong at the top at RB, deep with top end talent and second tier WR talent and slot guys, and the best TE class in years, and one of the best QB drafts of the past 35 years at the top. '22 is the polar opposite. You need to work within the environment of particular classes, and take advantage of inefficiencies like the draft trade value chart Dallas used, like the fact that the '22 draft is super weak in what we need, but the '21 draft is well stocked and act accordingly. Buffalo had a strong defense and not much else in '18, they knew the '19 QB class was straight trash, and so used assets they'd back loaded, to maneuver to get their guy so they wouldn't have to wait for '20 or '21 and it worked. I hated Josh Allen and would not recommend betting on a QB figuring out accuracy after college, that virtually never works ever, but props to them as it has, at least in the short term, regardless they handled QB right. We have the DL, we don't have the OL, or the back 7 on defense or depth at WR. We can decide to let this DL fade into the sunset or trade pieces of it to get that QB and other pieces of help, if we stand pat and pick at slot and tinker with FA we are screwed. We have an overabundance in an area that can make you mediocre but can't make you good or great. They need to think real long and hard on what to do. If I was sold on Fields and Lance (I am on Fields, less so on Lance though I like hime), I'd sell the farm to move up to get him because QB help via the draft is at least two years away and if you hit on a Fields or Lance you are set and the draft capital/player capital loss is irrelevant, and if you miss, you'll suck soon enough anyway, putting you back in position to fix yourself with the '23 and '24 classes. That's how I'd handle it. If we can't move up, I'd start trading pieces to acquire draft capital to maneuver in the '23 and '24 classes that are almost certainly better at QB than '22 and wait it out. But yeah, I'd trade almost anything to move up for Fields or Lawrence, and I'd do a standard trade for Lance if I was sold (2 firsts, a second, and a player and a day 3 pick whatever, but I wouldn't sell '23 or '24 assets).

x1000

Next years QB class is straight trash. Maybe you mean acquiring draft capital to trade for a QB? If not it’s pointless, this was the year to tank for a QB, so was last year. We botched it and now we’re screwed. It really is as simple as that and yes it is the end all be all (responding to a separate poster there) Without a QB, building a contender is a pipe dream. Rivera is set to turn us into a perpetual Norv-like team in terms of W/L record. Not bad enough to get the draft capital to fix the problems and not good enough to matter barring a saints getting Brees type scenario.

After Mahomes, Watson, Allen, and kinda Baker hit in '17 and '18, and Kyler, Burrow and Herbert hit in '19 and '20, following uneven at best, horrible at worst QB production from the '12-'16 classes barring Luck, and Wilson, I just don't think that's possible. If you want to move up from outside the blue chip zone and the second tier zone, that's just not gonna cut it. I think any franchise that thinks of themselves as holding draft capital that can get a top 4 guy this year, is going to want the sun and moon to move out as low as 19. That's why my offers always included Chase Young, which I know isn't happening. I dont think you can make it inside the top 5 without Young, and if you aren't offering Young, it's gonna be 3+ firsts type nightmare again.

Three years, but I see your point. I don't want this regardless. I want a QB with a decade plus time horizon. I don't think guys like Wilson have that. Could be wrong. Time will tell, regardless, I can see the point in Watson, he's a full 5+ years younger than Wilson. Investing in a 26 or 27 year old guy I can see, 32+, not so much. I don't think it makes sense long term though. We need to rebuild the OL, we have a bad pass catching core beyond McLaurin, and maybe our TE, and our back 7 on D is weak. I want to get a QB, I'd even consider trading for one, but I think it makes more sense trading up for a young guy on a cost controlled contract through 2024+rookie option, so we have the ability to address the back 7 of the D, WR, and the OL, then it does paying through the nose for a vet so we can be a 9-7 team instead of a 5-11 or 6-10 team.

No doubt. The hit rate w/QB’s outside of round 1 is bad enough. The day 3 hit rate is so bad it virtually makes it a pointless use of draft capital. I was taking issue w /the focus on things other than the players themselves w/regards to organizational success (particularly coaching). Brady was always Brady, take it from someone who ran track w/his older sister Nancy. But Brady himself as a QB finding strategy is as pointless as trying to recreate the factors that made Jordan or 1997-2009 Tiger Woods. These are unicorns.

Man, it's now sounding like Field's is inexplicably going to go after Wilson. What would it take to move up for him? I'd trade almost anything to get that done.

This is silly. Watch Brady at Michigan in his final college game. Beat back Drew Henson, everyone's favorite multisport star that everyone wanted to wrestle control over the QB job away from him, beat Alabama and Shaun Alexander's career game in an epic bowl finale to his Michigan career, everything that Brady was, could be captured in that final game and his fight to win back and hold onto that gig. Aaron Rodgers was Aaron Rodgers at Cal, just watch his duel with USC in his final year where Cal, Freaking CAL, nearly knocked out Pete Carrol's #1 ranked epic USC side while Rodgers was setting a school record for consecutive completions in the biggest game Cal played in several decades. Ben Roth jumped from Miami of Ohio to a conservative run first Pittsburgh team. Not exactly surprising that it took a bit of time to acclimate to the NFL from the Mid-American Conference. Wilson? You're depiction of him is farcical in the extreme. Seattle was a sub .500 team struggling badly till he got there. He's been a top 12 QB in the league every single season, and four times ranked inside the top 5. The fact that they've basically saddled him with garbage WR's his entire career until '19, and a run first dinosaur incompetent's as the OC's is not on him and the fact that he consistently was either top 6 (4 of 9 years) or 7th-11th (the other 5 years) despite all that tells you all you need to know. But this might help. Three years before Wilson, 5-11, 7-9, 7-9, and the 3 years after he arrived, 11-5, 13-3, 12-4 with only one season of less than double digit wins in his 9 year career (9-7). Coach worship is a problem, pretending that it's coaches making this magic happen, and not coaches taking advantage of elite talent (or failing too) that tells the story is beyond me.

Did anyone see this trade idea from PFF (if anyone already mentioned it, my apologies) : I think the returns a bit light considering Payne still has 1+1 left on his deal, but here's their idea for a Payne trade: We trade Payne to LA for their '21 2nd and their 22 4th. Link: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-10-trades-that-make-sense-2021-nfl-offseason-deshaun-watson-carson-wentz We trade Payne to LA for their '21 2nd and their 22 4th. ... the Washington Football Team has to start making decisions along this loaded defensive line because the simple truth is they can’t — or shouldn’t — pay everybody. 2017 first-round pick Jonathan Allen is set to play on the fifth-year option in 2021, and he is surely looking for a big-time extension this offseason coming off a career year with an 83.5 pass-rushing grade and 47 pressures (both personal bests). 2018 first-round pick Daron Payne clogging up the middle at nose tackle certainly freed Allen up as a 3- and 5-technique, but Payne offers little by way of generating pressure on the quarterback, making him more of a luxury. The new collective bargaining agreement made it so that all fifth-year options this upcoming offseason (for 2018 first-round picks, like Payne) are fully guaranteed when exercised, so a decision on Payne this offseason just further locks in more cap commitments with big extensions looming for edge defenders Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Washington has fellow 2018 draft pick Tim Settle as a solid, developing player at nose tackle, and the position is just cheaper and easier to address in general.....

You can't keep them all. You can't allocate that much cap space to the line w/o suffering for it at other key positions. Add in the fact that DL is one of the best places to spend draft capital on day one and it makes sense to pull a niners move and trade one of them for a first or as a package to move up for a QB.

No thank you on Toney. Going to be vastly overdrafted. Give me Chase (pipe dream), Bateman, Moore, or a discount w/Terrence Marshall or an even bigger discount w/ T. Terry. If we want slot, Amari Rogers x10000.

I think at least part of it is that Wentz is on a bad contract for what he's been for a few years. Darnold isn't, it's a cheap roll of the dice versus an expensive one. I get the view that the floor is higher with Wentz though, w/protection, Wentz was once a top 10 caliber QB, the best Darnold ever has been was borderline competent under Todd Bowles as a rookie.

I remain baffled. A rental on a bad contract for a backup AND we have to give up a reasonably early day 3 pick. No thank you x10,000.

I don't know what to think of the F.O. at this point if this is what they're thinking, I'm also skeptical of nepotism picks. What is a polian kid doing getting a major gig with us. I sure hope his CV deserves such respect because last time I checked, Jacksonville totally imploded (I give them credit with landing DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, James Robinson, and Josh Oliver (we'll see) with picks outside of round 1 across the board. Damn impressive when you can build up a nice collection of playmakers for Trevor Lawrence before he arrives w/o having had to use a single first round pick but I don't know his role in any of this. I will say the one thing I liked what Jville did when they imploded was basically spend 3 years going from a contender to a total s show, land the best QB prospect in a decade, build up the talent base for him in terms of playmakers, all while still sucking. Don't think their OL is where it needs to be which could be a catastrophe though. Needless to say, I'm jealous. We sucked infinitely worse than Jville the entire time they collapsed since having that elite D a few years ago, and yet they're getting Lawrence while all we got for our trouble was Haskins destroying his own career lol. Frustrating being a redskins/WFT fan/victim

Have to admit, I find the Mariota stuff really bizarre. We are YEARS removed from Mariota completing a season that was successful, like lots of years. There's a reason the Titans let him go w/o a second thought and it's not because they thought he was a really valuable asset. I wish he was better as I wasted way too much draft capital on him a few years ago in a start up, but regardless, it is what it is, after showing growth early on in '15-'16, he tailed off badly and other than some halfway interesting raw # data w/o actual quality results (looks like maybe stat padding in the 4th quarter) of early '19, he's basically been awful for four years. I flat out don't understand this. It seems like dumpster diving in Darnold vein, but w/even fewer pieces of exculpatory evidence (he did have Corey Davis, AJ Brown, Jonnu Smith, and Derek Henry after all, while Darnold had squat). It's one thing to pay a few nickles for Mariota as a theoretical backup w/starter in a pinch upside as a bridge if necessary, but as a solution it makes no sense whatsoever to the QB issue. Just mroe of the same, patching over gaping flaws guaranteed to sink the ship. Just bizarre to me. As depth? Okay, as an asset? No chance. They'd have to give me a pick to take his contract on, no chance would I trade anything.