Dirk Diggler Posted June 20, 2002 Share Posted June 20, 2002 I have decided to devise a new system for ranking offenses, defenses, and special teams. The rankings the NFL uses which rely on yards are very misleading b/c points win/lose games. Points for/against are also misleading due to special teams TD's, defensive returns, and turnovers that set up field goals, easy TD's and what not. So what is my motivation for this new system? I have listened to Cowboy fans rant about having the #4 defense in the NFL for months now when we all know that they are not top 5. But this is not just a Redskin looking to knock Dallas down a few notches. St. Louis is ranked #3 in run defense and we all know that that is hogwash too. They get big leads and teams stop running. So I think yards/rush should weigh more heavily than total rushing yards allowed. I'll get more into this later. My other reason for doing this is an attempt to explain the "impossible" -- New England winning the Super bowl. How can a team with the #24 pass defense be better at defensing the vaunted Rams offense than a team like Dallas or even Pittsburg? My rankings will be mostly empirical evidence but "coaching" and free agent losses will also figure into projecting who will have a top defense THIS YEAR. This is where things become a little subjective but hey it's my system so I can devise it anyway that I see fit! :laugh: Anyway, let me know if any of you would be interested in seeing what my company unknowingly pays me to do all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riggo-toni Posted June 20, 2002 Share Posted June 20, 2002 When a guy named Dirk Diggler has a new project, it's bound to arouse some interest.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCS Posted June 20, 2002 Share Posted June 20, 2002 Go get 'em Dirk! I too had had enough with the Dallas rnking thing. Even posted some info on "that" thread down below. Any chance your system taking this into account? 3rd ranked rushing attack. 3rd ranked pass defense. Ect..... Okay, let's see if we can put a little of this under the Extreme microscope. 3rd ranked Running offense: put up 8 rushing T.D's for the season. ranking 25. Total pts a game: 15.4 dead last. If you want to be the man, beat the man. Dallas played only 4 teams ranked in the top 10 in run defense. Denver #6: Smith 5-17yds Hambrick 4-24 yds San Deigo # 7 Smith 17-85 Hambrick 2-6 N.Y. Giants # 8 Game 1 Hambrick 30-77 Game 2 Smith 22-62 Hambrick 4-16 Wiley 4-15 San Francisco Smith 26 -126 Hambrick 4-6 Record 2-3 Rushing Average 85.8 yds a game. (note, San fran was a good game for Dallas). That average is 30yds less than the season average. Next best team. Tampa Bay # 12 Smith 13-40 Hambrick 1-10 Dallas played 8 games against teams that were ranked in the bottom 3rd of the league in rushing defense. 3-5 against these teams. I wouldn't be hanging my hat on that bit of info if I were a Boys fan. Pass defense Allowed 20 Td's ranking 17 Run defense allowed 12 TD's ranking 18 total points a game 21.1 ranking 19 int's 9 ranking 29 fumbles 16 ranking 5 overall turnovers 25 ranking 23. played top 10 Pass defenses 4 times 3-1 season avg. 180.6 passing yds a game. Against top 10 213 yds a game. San Diego Ranking 11 allowed 353 yds Agian, go get 'em Dirk! (man the offseason drags). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlanta Skins Fan Posted June 20, 2002 Share Posted June 20, 2002 Originally posted by Dirk Diggler I have decided to devise a new system for ranking offenses, defenses, and special teams. The rankings the NFL uses which rely on yards are very misleading b/c points win/lose games. Points for/against are also misleading due to special teams TD's, defensive returns, and turnovers that set up field goals, easy TD's and what not. This is an extremely worthy effort. There are a number of key NFL stats that are simply misguided, including: QB rating WR rankings (strictly by number of catches) Rankings of offenses/defenses One obvious flaw in the rankings of offenses and defenses is that each unit (O or D) on a team is dependent on the performance of the other unit. For example, a quick-strike pass offense will go through more possessions than a grinding running offense, thereby increasing the number of times the defense takes the field and thereby causing the defense to give up more yards/points than it would otherwise. The factors that should be used in ranking offenses and defenses should be: points per possession, yards per possession, yards per pass attempt, yards per rush attempt, and turnovers per possession. WR rankings should blend reception percentage, number of catches, number of yards, number of TDs, yards after catch, and fumbles per total catches, with a normalizing factor that removes the influence of the QB rating (preventing top QBs from artificially elevating WR ratings, and poor QBs from lowering them). I've planned to work on the WR rating system sometime in the next few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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