'05 Skins Forecast (long Post)

[SkinsRback04]

Between all of the polling and usual ****ing and kvetching about this and that I just felt like stating a few observations for the record. See where you come down:

Offensively Gibbs had a difficult year 1 in Gibbs 2 era...

Without a doubt...but we got what we we expected in the end. Gibbs 1 proved loathe to make QB changes and this go-round was no different. Half the season was basically lost to the Brunell debacle. This involved a great many peculiar circumstances leading to offensive ineptitude and failure all around for the first eight to nine games. Whether a particular player/players (we all know the names) or play calling scheme got it right OR wrong it seemed the opposite would happen somewhere else on the field. I personally have never witnessed such offensive disarray since the Joe Walton offensive schemes of old. (The old-timers know full well what that means)

We suffered under this type of ineffectual effort in the Gibbs 1 era any number of years, especially those not involving playoff appearances (which thank God were few). We experienced all of this back then even with talented squads and marquee players. I was dismayed to witness last years version but not truly surprised, especially considering all that was involved with the offensive talent being basically inherited except for Portis, the one bone Gibbs allowed himself for the first year. Cooley turned out to be a true bonus extraordinaire which can happen. I guess sometimes people in Hell do get ice water afterall.

Lacking Jansen as well as any consistent middle line play we still managed to accomplish a good deal on the ground, albeit the hard way. I'm sure Gibbs would be the first to say Portis at his size should not have that many tough inside carries. Even completely putting aside the effect of the new WR additions and their accompanying TD prowess and speed, does any thoughtful Redskin fan believe a truly revamped and energized O-Line such as we are building towards will not be able to result in fewer carries and more yards to Mr. Portis? IMO the addition of Rabach alone is enough to put Portis over 1500+ with many fewer carries. I would be more than interested to hear the rationale if anyone disagrees. For further reference go ask Jamal. Add in the return of Jansen at RT and what are we looking at realistically in terms of potential? I get goosebumps just thinking about it. Hogs 2 is being built right in front of us...get ready for it.

In particular, Mr. Pierce, Mr. Trotter et al and Mr. Rabach are going to become intimately acquainted with each other soon enough. Time will tell where system begins and real talent ends. You can guess where my money lies.

Gibbs may not always deliver the goods for any number of reasons, usually injury or player contract related but this I know and history bears it out. Give this guy some time to sort through things and magic begins to unfold. Mr. Conservative suddenly becomes the most adaptable and innovative genius on the block. The young pups here (both fan and player) have no real knowledge and experience of this. But it will happen right in front of your eyes and you will not believe the kind of bliss that comes with it, especially for the long suffering fan.

I could go on and on as could many of us here. But this is essentially unnecessary. Suffice it to say...despite the off-season nonsense, the homegrown FA losses, the general media bias, the #%@&* cap and the effect of Cyclic Sunspots in general, we are going to be a far superior team in '05. While I would be thankful for an 8-8 season (as was my hope last year) with our '05 opponent schedule 10-6 is actually possible and not just a fanboy dream. The first order of business has to be the NFC East and no one knows this better than J.J.G. If we do no worse than split just these games we will be in the playoffs. I request all disbelievers to write it down.

Thanks for listening...Over and out.

[Ghost of]

Bump. I'm going to edit in a comment in a second.

Edit:

Good post, I like how you really wanted to approach the past season in-depth.

I just have a different "feeling" about this year and maybe part of that is simple 'faith' or maybe it's just the faith of experience. I just don't see a Gibbs team, especially on offense, showing the same result next year.

No, I think change is coming. I'd love to win it all next year, but to be more realistic, I dont' see why a 10-6 record and a real challenge of the NFC East crown couldn't happen.

I just see heart and effort and love for Gibbs from too many guys. When Marcus Washington is putting that in his journal on his player site, that says something to me.

This is a person that men of courage and honor will follow. I think most of our guys have some measure of those qualities. In the end, that will aid in the triumph of the team over all obstacles, even more than his schemes and playcalling at any given moment.

[Art]

Gibbs never really got himself back fully in the flow last year, but, you could see he got somewhat more comfortable down the stretch. He just started to get some feel back. Great offensive minds think plays ahead, and for most of the year, Gibbs wasn't ahead, he was behind. By the end of the year he was no longer behind.

He'll improve, and with his improvement, the team will improve. The team enters today a more talented, deeper team overall than the team we played the MAJORITY of last year. We have a couple of areas that concern me from a depth area, but, in all, the team has the dramatic advantage of knowing that last year just two players knew the systems they were playing, this year, over 40 players will. That will make it a much better team overall.

[SkinsRback04]

And I certainly agree with your areas of concern Art as already stated in your other posts. We don't want to be wearing veils going into this coming season when it comes to realistic expectations. But I'm sure you'll agree the combination of player talent/attributes and COACHING that we have assembled here thus far for '05 has such great potential, if only using last year as the point of comparison.

Thanks for the read.

[SkinsRback04]

Thanks Ghost.

I too believe this process just takes a certain amount of time. Fan frustration is perfectly understandable even including the recent gloom and doom parade. But 'Gibbs type' players and team loyalty are such foreign concepts around here many people are not allowing for the possibility of the 'miraculous', in a word.

Hey, remember Vermeil's first year back? To build something special it just takes time...and we strongly agree, the right leadership.

[redskns21]

Excellent post SkinsRback!

I agree on pretty much all aspects of your post. I happen to think that the return of Jansen will pay major dividends on the offensive side. I also think that having receivers that believe in Gibbs and his system and are able to get separation is being completely underrated by a lot of the fans who are complaining about our receiving core right now. Add to that a competent and athletic center and we have the makings of a much more successful offensive team in 2005.

As for defense, I'm of the belief that Barrow was kept off IR for a reason last year. Whether it was to replace Marshall with Pierce and shift Barrow to the middle, I don't really know. What I do know is that either way, Williams appeared comfortable enough to rely on Barrow should he have been healthy. That's good enough for me, I believe he's earned the benefit of the doubt. No doubt in my mind that Smoot will be missed but I do think that his loss won't be enough to cripple our defense. We may slip a bit but not to the point that we lose a lot of games over it. Having said that, we will return Arrington, Bowen and Daniels to the starting lineup and probably add a pass rusher through FA or the draft. We may be even better on D next year after all is said and done but I'm just not sure right now since I don't know what we're going to add. In any case, I just don't see us being much worse if we're worse at all.

I see a 8-8 or 9-7 season provided we don't lose anybody on offense for an extended amount of time. At 8-8, I'm satisfied that we're moving in the right direction. At anything better than 8-8, I'm elated.

Thanks again, good read.

[SkinsRback04]

Redskns56,

Thanks for the time and the words.

I purposely left the Defensive side of the equation out of the original post for many reasons. But when added into the now admittedly only potential Offensive improvement picture, what is there really for any informed fan to be so glum about? I suspect the key word here is fairly obvious.

I agree with your points on the defense, especially concerning M. Barrow. With all of the generalized moaning and complaining I have hardly heard a word about the non-performance of this critical player. In this regard I am heartened by Gibbs assessment and recent words on the subject. I believe after a year of considerable rest and rehab Barrow will be a contributor to the D in a substantial way. When healthy he can be a real force and would likely be the field general ala Pierce. If his knee continues to present a problem however, I can still see other players stepping up to the plate. No denying Williams is certainly the Defensive equivalent of Gibbs when it comes to coaching and player evaluation. For me the only real remaining concern is the CB situation. Let's see what the future brings.

Even leaving Barrow aside, as you stated, the return of our missing and injured D starters will be a tremendous offset for the FA losses. I certainly expect our D to be as good (at least statistically) as last year if only due to effective improvement in the offense.

Time will tell.

[33]

Nice post SkinsRBack04.

I like what you had to say about Vermeil. I've been meaning to get around to that in my posts lately. Vermeil took a few years to get his guys in there, and the right attitude on the team. The one thing different about Vermeil was that he stole Martz(and trust me, I don't like him, but he was our QB coach at the time) from us that year to install a version of Gibbs/Norv's offense in St Louis.

All in all, I think the addition by subtraction of guys that Gibbs didn't feel fit into the personality he is trying to breed at Redskins Park will be a huge success.

Don't forget that Gibbs was definitely nervous from all the pressure coming into last season. He played it ultra-conservatively, which doesn't mix well with the freak turnovers that we became accustomed to early on. We looked pretty decent playing it close early on, and had a bunch of strange fumbles and picks like I have never seen before. I'm convinced it cost us games against NYG, BAL, and Cle. Not to mention the bad call against GB. We played like much more of an 8-8 team than a 6-10 team. Don't forget we played PIT and PHI(2 of last years best teams) very close with chances to win.

Here's to seeing enough improvement to be playing our best ball at the end of the season.

[jtyler42]

Great post I like the positive vibe and I also have a good feeling about next season...

We will go 9-7 next yr and battle for one of the last 2 wildcard spots next yr...

I feel this way for all the reasons stated...Continuity within the offensive and defensive systems, Players who believe in Gibbs and his system and truly want to be in Washington...

[TheGreek1973]

Great Post man. I feel the same way. For me a Gibbs coached team started showing up in the second Giants game. In fact if you look at that game and all the games afterwards I say the Redskins were as good as anybody, only stupid mistakes and a couple of terrible ref calls kept them out of the playoffs.

2nd Giants game. Total domination when finally the OL open holes for Portis, our play action pass worked as it supposed to work and our D played like they played all year long. GREAT. End result total domination granted of a team that was going backwards but still we have not seen a convincing victory by the skins against an NFC east opponent like this for years.

2nd Philly game. where to start? The BS int call against Harris on Owens? The terrible INT of Ramsey in the last two minutes? Or the statement of several egglets that “we just stole one from you guys”. That game was ours from the get go and it took a terrible ref call (not the first BTW last season) and a stupid mistake by Ramsey for us to lose it.

SF game. We dominated them in every way possible even if you can argue that our D was not its customary dominating unit that it usually was. Enough said they are a terrible team and we went out there for some practice.

2nd Dallas game. I will not even mention the 1st Dallas game and the 14 point swing the SAME F*CKING ref gave the cowpokes (go ahead and tell me he wasn’t a cowpokes fan). But in this 2nd game, that first drive, that INT after hitting the hands of TE on the 4 yard line, man what can you say. In fact I tell you what you can say, its what I told my buddy after the INT ended our first drive. Our team is cursed against these clowns. Period. I mean that last bomb by Vinny with 4th and God knows how much reminded me of the famous fumble of the Giants against the egglets. If we would have let those a$$holes run 50 plays with the same situation we stop them every time.

Vikings game. Without Smoot, without Springs for some of the game, with someone named Wilds something at corner, not only we win but we beat the best offense in the NFC and a team that needed a win to go to the playoffs unlike us playing out the season. Enough said.

My last thought is this. Gibbs never ever had two loosing season in a row, in fact after the only loosing season I believe he ended up winning a SB the next year. In years we didn't make the playoffs the following year we either made the SB or the NFC championship game I believe (correct me if I am wrong). We finished ranked 30th in Offense last year without a decent Center, with Samuels playing limp and without our best OL player (Jensen). No way Gibbs, with an improved OL, a second year in a row is going to have that happen. NO WAY. Look for us to finish 11-5 next year.

[budski]

Good posts by all enjoyed the read.

My only comment is we may have lost smoot, but you still

have to get by Taylor, which I have nicknamed Mr. Launchman.

His hit list is long and distinguished already.

[MumboSauce]

Great post, great points..I'm with ya! Where many think we're done for...I don't know..I just have a good feeling about what's to come.

[jnova]

I love this thread i am a new pup and i already am noticing alot of difference comparied to the old spurrier O now im not saying it dont work in video games but it dont work on the field. Neway Thank you for posting this thread and i really hope we sweep the boys the giants and eagles we can split i dont mind that at all.

[FBChick]

The voices of reason are starting t come out. Glad to see it.

Nice post and I very much agree. I do still see the cap tying Gibb's hands a bit more then he really wants it to, so I don't think he has gotten us to where he wants to be, but I very much believe the simple improvements to the O-line will greatly improve the run.

Now we need Ramsey to quickly build some chemistry with the new receivers to create an effective passing game, and with that.. even if the D takes a slight hit, we will still get over the 8-8 hump.

[SlobberKnockinFootball]

*bump* People seriously need to read this thread.

[SkinsRback04]

Thanks for all of the responses.

Sometimes you get tired of all the negativity...it just seems like piling on and you're waiting for the whistle...maybe even a flag.

But then you remember we're Redskin fans and flags seldom work out in our favor. So you just strap it up and keep playing. It seems to be our way. It's good sometimes to remember in the middle of it all that there are like minds out there and we need to huddle up on occasion.

It's been a long time since I've been as excited about an upcoming season as this one. My mind fills with images of games gone by, some quite meaningful, during the long Gibbs Football hiatus. I like to think that Lavar was just a year late and if he were there in '99 then Alstott never makes that cutback run for the first comeback TD. But then I also remember Lavar's penchant for overpursuit, especially in the early years...so you never know.

For whatever reasons the Skins were meant to wander in the desert for a very long time. As I recall even Moses had a few personnel issues to deal with. It will get sorted out. As Art posted Gibbs will be in much better form and (let me add a personal wish) God willing, lacking whoever that senior citizen is in the replay booth. I think one could almost build an entire season just around that.

Hail to the Redskins!

P.S. Greek---agree with your game analysis and sentiments. If it wasn't for bad luck the Skins would have none at all...and when it comes to officiating..well, let's just leave it there.

Hail to the Redskins Again!!!!