Neophyte Posted October 1, 2004 Share Posted October 1, 2004 While driving home from work last night I was listening to the local sportstalk radio station here in Dallas (1310 The Ticket) and listened to part of an interview with Troy Aikman where they discussed his new rating system for Offense and Defense in the NFL. He says he has never been a fan of the NFL's traditional way of measuring these things and I think I agree with him. For those who are unfamiliar with the NFL's way of figuring this, basically the NFL measures the best and worst in terms of total yards, period. Scoring offense and defense and the things that go with it do not count. So to counter this idea, Troy got with a statistics professional during the off season and created his own ratings system by identifying what he thought were the most important stats for an offense. The defensive ratings are calculated using the same stat only in reverse. So if the stat for the offense is Yards Per Rush then the stat used for the defense is Yards Allowed Per Rush, and so on. Currently the NFL has the Washington offense ranked 15th while Aikman has them ranked 23rd (turn overs against Tampa and NY are killing us) and the Washington defense is ranked 3rd by the NFL and 10th by Aikman (lack of turnovers is what is killing us here). Anyway, since I am one of those who thinks many statistics are misleading I find these more interesting and truthful than the NFL stuff even if Washington is lower on Aikman's scale than that of the NFL. The following is a quick explaination of the system: The Aikman Efficiency Ratings measure offensive and defensive performance using a combination of seven key statistics identified by Troy Aikman, and then measured against league norms (and extremes) established over the last 10 years. An offense or defense performing exactly at league norms in all categories will achieve a score of 75. It will take a truly exceptional unit to score more than 90 during an entire season on either the offensive or defensive scale. In 2003, AER scores ranged on offense from 93.95 (Kansas City) to 63.55 (New York Giants) and on defense from 86.87 (New England) to 62.60 (San Diego). The seven categories measured are: -Adjusted Points (20 percent) -- Total Points Scored or Allowed minus Points on Returns and Safeties. -Turnovers (20 percent). -Red Zone Efficiency (20 percent) -- Measured by Percent of Possible Points (figured by taking the number of Red Zone Chances times 7, then dividing it by the number of Points Actually Scored (defined as TDs times 7 plus FGs times 3). -Yards Per Play -- Divided into Yards Per Rush (10 percent of total) and Yards Per Pass Play (10 percent of total). Yards Per Pass Play includes yards on plays involving sacks. -First Down Achievement -- Divided into Total First Downs (10 percent of total) and 3rd Down Conversion Percentage (10 percent of total). Aikman Efficiency Ratings on NFL.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afparent Posted October 1, 2004 Share Posted October 1, 2004 #10 D aint bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsHokieFan Posted October 1, 2004 Share Posted October 1, 2004 Pretty interesting stuff. Even though this is real cool and a good way to look at things the best measure is obvious. Wins and losses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted October 1, 2004 Share Posted October 1, 2004 Must be nice to have the time to be able to sit around and formulate a new system for offensive ratings:laugh: I think everyone has their own system, to an extent. Me personally, I think the best way to measure a defensive unit is points allowed. Yardage is fine and dandy in and of itself, but if you stop teams when it matters the most, it deserves some credit. I like Troy, though. He has always been one of the more un-biased analysts and tends to give credit where it is due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WallyG3 Posted October 1, 2004 Share Posted October 1, 2004 Problem with going by points is that they don't differentiate points given up by defense/offense/special teams. For instance, the Skins have two TDs given up by our offense, yet they count against the defense when you go by points alone. You really have to create an index # that takes into account all of these things. The nice thing about Troy's rating scale is that it is the only one that takes these things into account. I like this scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Williams Posted October 1, 2004 Share Posted October 1, 2004 I'm not totally sold on our defense yet though......though I think we are much better look at the RB's we've faced. #3 is unrealistic. Garner,barber & george...na....mediocre guys capable of a big game but just didn't play well.......I think #10 DEF. is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neophyte Posted October 1, 2004 Author Share Posted October 1, 2004 You hit it Wally. Right on the head. This is why I like it too. The Skins defense has given up 14 points less than most, if not all, other systems allow for. This is one of the big reasons I like it. That and it rewards big play ability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenaciousB15 Posted October 1, 2004 Share Posted October 1, 2004 Where were you all when I posted this before to prove a point about the eagles being the '31th ranked defense', and everyoned scoffed becuase it was written by Aikmen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fosback Posted October 1, 2004 Share Posted October 1, 2004 The reason i do not like rating the defense based on the yards given up is because it is very misleading. If an offense is stinking up and giving good field position to the opposition then the defense on paper can look good because they gave up fewer yards - but they may have given up a ton of points as well!! This happened when Marvin lewis had the #5 defense with the skins in spurrier's first year. we had a god awful punter and bad offense - the defense had to work a short field most of the games. Gave up fewer yards hence the #5 rating but the oppostion scored a lot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalRaider Posted October 2, 2004 Share Posted October 2, 2004 I like the idea, but I can already see one major flaw... he doesn't take situational statistics into account: Last weekend when the Raiders played the Bucs, we got up 30-6 on them by the end of the 3rd quarter and our D had held their O to less than 175 yds total offense. Then we turn around and put our second stringers in and play a loose zone, and Tampa nets an additional 250 yards and 2 meaningless touchdowns in the 4th quarter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neophyte Posted October 2, 2004 Author Share Posted October 2, 2004 The problem with this idea, Raider, is the subjective nature of deciding whether the satistics are situational or not. It was your Defensive Coordinators choice to do those substitutions and call off the dogs. Your team still gave up the yards and the points when it did not have to. And who is to say that Tampa may not have gotten something going against the first team D as well. Often teams get things going in the second half that were not working in the first half. I see your point and I understand but I do not see a way to address it in a manner that is fair and impartial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrfriedm Posted October 2, 2004 Share Posted October 2, 2004 Okay!! Whatever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalRaider Posted October 3, 2004 Share Posted October 3, 2004 Originally posted by Neophyte The problem with this idea, Raider, is the subjective nature of deciding whether the satistics are situational or not. It was your Defensive Coordinators choice to do those substitutions and call off the dogs. Your team still gave up the yards and the points when it did not have to. And who is to say that Tampa may not have gotten something going against the first team D as well. Often teams get things going in the second half that were not working in the first half. I see your point and I understand but I do not see a way to address it in a manner that is fair and impartial. Your points are well taken... for what it's worth I tried to come up with a reasonable alternative myself, but really couldn't. That's why no matter what they do with these rankings, there'll always be a shortcoming with the methodology in my opinion. But in defense of our DC's substitutions, I like the fact that he got our starters out of there as soon as he could. Since we've got a lot of guys on our DLine well over 30, I'd rather see us giving away yards and points than leave them on the field just to keep the opposing team out of the endzone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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