SI: MMQB

[bubba9497]

Week 14 fallout

Playoff picture and division races come into focus

December 8, 2003 10:19AM

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2003/writers/peter_king/12/05/mmqb/index.html

BALTIMORE -- It's strange when the outcomes of Week 14 of the NFL season have the biggest effect on determining the playoff map. But that will be the legacy of the 2003 regular season. Chapters were written, stories were capped, divisions were decided with three weeks to go in the regular season.

''Nothing is over yet,'' Ravens coach Brian Billick, still wearing several layers of clothing on an insanely windy and cold day, told me as we spoke in his office Sunday night. His team had just taken charge of the AFC North, but Billick wasn't ready to admit it. "We don't control anything yet. What we've done is put ourselves in position to be in the position to control the division. Nothing more.''

Billick won't say it, but I will: Baltimore has all but locked up a home playoff game in the first weekend of 2004. With a one-game lead over Cincinnati -- and matchups against Oakland (3-10), Cleveland (4-8) and Pittsburgh (5-8) remaining -- the Ravens have a clear shot at being a third or fourth seed and hosting a wild-card game now, particularly with the Bengals playing at St. Louis in two weeks.

A look at how Sunday cleared up the picture in most of the divisions:

AFC EAST. It's over. The Patriots clinched the division with their 12-0 win over Miami, and New England also crept ahead of Kansas City in the race for home field through the playoffs. The Pats are 8-1 in conference (11-2 overall) with three games left against AFC foes (Jags, at Jets, Bills), while Kansas City lost its second conference game yesterday in Denver. Just watch. Patriots coach Bill Belichick will use the next three games as playoff games, because he knows how vital home field advantage is.

AFC SOUTH. With three games left, Indianapolis (10-3) has a one-game lead over Tennessee, but that's really a 1.5-game advantage because the Colts swept the Titans in their head-to-head meetings. With Atlanta, Denver and Houston left on the schedule, it's hard to picture Indy losing two more games.

AFC WEST. Kansas City (11-2 overall; 10-2 in conference) will clinch the division when the meek Lions creep into Arrowhead this Sunday, but the Chiefs probably lost home field advantage yesterday. If I'm them, I'm pretty worried about a potential first-round matchup with the Colts, now that Edgerrin James (27 carries for 95 yards and two touchdowns against the top rushing defense in football, Tennessee's) is back on the beam.

AFC WILD CARD: The second-place team in the AFC South, probably Tennessee (9-4), is a lock for the fifth seed. Denver and Miami, both 8-5, are the leaders in the clubhouse for the sixth seed, but storm clouds hover over the Miami bid. The Dolphins are 5-5 in AFC games, Denver 7-3.

NFC EAST. It seems like the Eagles haven't lost since Donovan McNabb was playing backup guard for the Syracuse Orangemen. They clinched a playoff berth Sunday and took a two-game lead in the division with their 36-10 trouncing of the Cowboys. Now they have to keep the pressure on in Miami Sunday night to secure home field in the NFC.

NFC SOUTH. Try as they might, the 8-5 Panthers (whose remaining slate is at Arizona, Detroit, at Giants) probably won't be able to give the division away, though Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme (two interceptions Sunday against Atlanta, including one returned for the game-winning TD in OT) looks like he's trying to do just that. New Orleans could have won the division Sunday by beating the Buccaneers, but the Saints (6-7) apparently can't stand prosperity. How in the name of Tom Benson do you -- playing with everything on the line for your team, at home and against a foe you've beaten three times in a row when the game mattered to both of you -- lose to a Tampa Bay team that's simply playing out the string? Something stinks in New Orleans.

NFC NORTH. Just when we wanted to stick a fork in the Vikings, they get the biggest holiday gift of all: Seattle, on the road. The 8-5 Vikes have a one-game lead over the Pack (as a result of their Thanksgiving-day loss to the Lions), but the most important stat of all is intradivision record right now: Minnesota is 4-1 with a game at Chicago Sunday to close out their NFC North schedule, and Green Bay is 4-2. A win Sunday gives Minnesota the tiebreaker edge it will probably need over the Packers.

NFC WEST. A victory Monday would give the Rams a two-game lead over Seattle with three to play and the Seahawks headed to St. Louis this weekend. It's as good as over.

NFC WILD CARD. I'm guessing Seattle and Dallas. Both are 6-3 in the conference, and Green Bay, the next-closest candidate, is 7-5.

I'm not going to project any further than the first week of the playoffs right now, but I pray Sports Illustrated sends me to an AFC game. The conference has some potentially golden matchups: Tennessee at Baltimore, Denver at Indianapolis. In the NFC, the crystal ball tells me it will be Seattle at Minnesota, Dallas at Carolina. Zzzzzzzzzz. Wake me if Green Bay runs the table and gets in.

Perhaps this is part of what's wrong with the BCS:

On Oct. 11, Oklahoma beat Texas 65-13.

Oklahoma finished 12-1. Texas finished 10-2.

This morning's New York Times computer rankings, a component of the BCS rankings, has Texas fourth and Oklahoma fifth.

"This guy Vick made some unbelievable plays with his legs. It was like Pop Warner football tonight.''

--Carolina safety Mike Minter after Michael Vick scrambled for 141 yards in the Falcons' 20-14 win.

First, an explanation. Many of you wrote with varying opinions about my THG story last week. Some of you don't care. Some of you chided me for looking the other way while a new steroid invaded the football world, like Andrew Sharpe, of Sydney, Australia. "I find your stance on steroids and drug testing unbelievable, contemptuous and downright shocking.'' Sharpe wrote. "Remember, THG was designed specifically to give the results of steroids without being found through conventional testing.''

To that I say THG was not on the NFL's list of banned substances when it was ingested, and at least one player that I know of asked the supplier point-blank if it was a steroid or simply a performance-enhancer and was told it categorically was not a steroid. That may be naive, but what I don't see is a willful attempt by the players to defraud the testing procedures. I see a willful attempt to get stronger by taking a supplement that was not illegal.

The final point e-mailed to me was a question: Why would I waste the top of my column on THG rather than real football news? Two reasons. One: This is going to be an ongoing story, and an issue that will cause the players to get ticked off at the NFLPA. Two, and this, quite frankly, was the most pressing issue: I had two assignments for the magazine last week. I had to go to Baltimore to watch video of a play with Jonathan Ogden to write a sidebar story for the package we did in the magazine on offensive linemen this week; and I had to go to St. Louis to cover the Vikes and Rams. In a week when I have multiple assignments for SI, it's essential I write some of my MMQB words early, and so this is what I decided to do. Anyway, now that I've bored you silly, here are your electronic thoughts:

IS SPURRIER HEADED FOR TOBACCO ROAD? From Korey Harris of Montgomery, Ala.: "I'm a die-hard UNC fan and until you mentioned it, I just blew off the Steve Spurrier rumors as just talk from hometown newspaper hopefuls. What have you heard about UNC and Spurrier?''

Just this: A coach I trust mentioned it to me as the best guess as to where Spurrier would go, plus a high-profile college coach who knows Spurrier told a visiting scout this fall that he thought Spurrier's next job would be with the Heels. That's it. As I said on HBO last week, it's my best guess. Nothing scientific. hmmmmm sounds like he is giving himself an out, after looking like an ass with predicting Spurrier would leave

THE MATERIALISM DEBATE, PART I. From Andrew Murphy of Huntington Beach, Calif.: "I would like to explain the 'other side' regarding waiting in line at 5 a.m. for a store to open. I am a father of four soccer-playing children, ages 11-17. We can't afford many of the 'luxuries' except when they are on sale. I don't feel we are overly materialistic; we just just try to do the best for our family.''

Good point. Glad you made it. But I still wonder: How many holiday gifts wouldn't be on the shelves at 11 a.m. the day after Thanksgiving that are the shelves at 6 a.m.? What's the need of getting up at 2 a.m. to do this?

THE MATERIALISM DEBATE, PART II: From Jeff of Uzbekistan: "Have you never, ever sat in the cold or wet weather while waiting for hours in line for the chance to buy a ticket to a concert?''

I don't consider waiting in line for hours to do something I can do 363 days a year, day or night, an apt comparison to buying concert tickets. But thanks for checking in from Uzbekistan.

THE JOY OF SACKS. From Will Ferguson of Skokie, Ill.: "Regarding the 'all-time' sack record, why hasn't the NFL gone back and analyzed old game film to count sacks?''

Good question. The reason is pretty simple. The NFL records before about 1960 are shoddy, and film does not exist for all games before about 1965. Now, a man named John Turney from New Mexico has done an exhaustive study of sacks, going back through old play-by-play sheets from NFL games, but even he can't be sure about sack totals back in, say, 1949 because of incomplete record-keeping. The bottom line is, we will never know for certain if the current record is the actual record, though it probably is.

YOU KNOW, YOU REALLY ARE CLEVER. From Fred Loranis of Montreal: "'God is weary of smiting the striped ones.' Best line ever!"

You know what they say about a blind squirrel occasionally finding a nut, Fred. Thanks.

YOU'VE GOT THE RAMS ALL WRONG. From Ben of St. Louis: "King, you've got to be kidding me. You're worried about the Rams defense? You were at the game. Did you miss the sacks? The interception? The forced fumble for a touchdown?''

I saw it all. I also saw a defense that gave up 353 yards in Minnesota's first eight possessions over the first three quarters, when the game was still competitive. That's 44 yards per possession. Not good. In the last eight quarters, against a bad Arizona offense and a good Minnesota offense, the Rams have given up 823 yards. Are you happy giving up 103 yards per quarter? You shouldn't be.

A SHOUTOUT TO GREGG EASTERBROOK. From Paul Mortensen of Plymouth, Minn.: "The last couple of weeks you've included haiku in your column. Is that a tribute to fired ESPN Page 2 columnist Gregg Easterbrook (author of Tuesday Morning Quarterback) or just a coincidence?''

A bit of both. I love TMQ, now on NFL.com, and I must say I have loved Easterbrook's use of haiku. But you know what prompted me to use it a couple of weeks ago, and then last week? Exhaustion. It was the easiest way to finish the columns. Even at 4 a.m., 5-7-5 is easier than a coherent thought. But I probably wouldn't have thought to use it unless I saw it in his column. So I must credit him for the idea.

1. New England (11-2). Half of New England can stop e-mailing me now. I have put your beloved Pats in the only spot you'll tolerate. The team deserves top billing, by the way.

2. Philadelphia (10-3). What do my top two teams have in common? The 41st player on their respective rosters is better than the 32nd player on almost everyone else's. If you don't think that's vitally important in the 2003 NFL landscape, you're not watching the games.

3. St. Louis (9-3). I would like to see Marc Bulger play a low-error game on the road, in so-so weather. It'll be about 38 degrees, with winds swirling at 12 mph on the Cleveland lakefront Monday night, my Doppler pals tell me.

4. Indianapolis (10-3). That was a great win, at The Coliseum, outdoors, with the division title on the line.

5. Baltimore (8-5). If the Ravens play down the stretch like they did yesterday, they will be in the conference championship game.

6. Kansas City (11-2). I've been saying it for a couple of weeks now: You don't win a Super Bowl with a run defense like that. And I don't care how desperate Denver was yesterday. Giving the Broncos 508 yards ... I mean, how do you fix that, Dick Vermeil?

7. Tennessee (9-4). For some reason I just think Jeff Fisher will have his team straightened out by wild-card weekend, which it now appears he has to do.

8. Denver (8-5). Butch Davis drafted William Green instead of Clinton Portis because the Browns' coach thought he needed a big back to play in the Cleveland elements. I bet Butch shook his head a few times Sunday while Portis was putting on one of the shows of the year.

9. Miami (8-5). Well, it's official. If Miami makes the playoffs, the Dolphins are going to have to win three January road games in 15 days in order to reach the Super Bowl. I'm joining the Dolfans in the Skeptical Club

(Psst. Anybody out there got another NFC team they like?)

10. Minnesota (8-5). This pick is as good a guess as any. Not sure if the Vikes slipped a mickey into the Seahawks' Gatorade yesterday, or if they actually played well on defense.

11. Carolina (8-5). I'm not sure how many any of you stayed up to see the end of the Michael Vick Bowl last night, but here's what happened: 14-14, late fourth quarter, Atlanta driving so Jay Feely could miss another field goal, and Vick throws a pick with 14 seconds left in regulation. Overtime. Carolina wins the toss -- which, these days, is trouble for the opponent because the majority of times it seems it doesn't ever see the ball again. Third play of OT, Jake Delhomme throws a pick, Kevin Mathis returns it 32 yards to paydirt for the ballgame.

12. Cincinnati (7-6). "I don't care what happens tomorrow afternoon,'' Marvin Lewis told me Saturday night. "We aren't going back to where we were. Those days are over.'' I believe him. If Jon Kitna had any protection yesterday, it would have been a close ballgame.

13. Dallas (8-5). After 19- and 26-point losses the last two weeks, Cowboyphiles, remember this: You'd have traded your 12-year-old Ford pickup for 8-5 back in August.

14. Seattle (8-5). I'm in the Gridiron Guru League playoffs this upcoming weekend. I'm matched against against CBS' Jim Nantz in the first round. I was roundly jeered by my fellow league members for benching Matt Hasselbeck two weeks ago when he played at Baltimore in favor of Doug Flutie as the Seattle QB went on to throw for five touchdowns. Of course I'd play Hasselbeck over Flutie this weekend. In the immortal words of New York Post columnist Steve Serby (for the second time this season), that's why they call me Mr. Loser.

15. Green Bay (7-6). But I have no conviction about it. Who I like

[@DCGoldPants]

that's exactly what he's doing. I think after watching yesterday and maybe nothing coming from his rumors last week....he's worried that Spurrier stays put and he looks dumb ontop of looking fat.

[ktball74]

Peter King is a JOKE!

[TD_washingtonredskins]

He's writing a lot fatter these days.

[aREDSKIN]

I am curious as to why anyone bothers to read his scribble anyways. I just don't understand.

[RabidFan]

he is a porky putz