bobandweave Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 1 hour ago, MassSkinsFan said: When would you start it? - Clearly I did not understand this. Based on what your saying I missed that your looking at end of season results. In that case I clearly see how I was wrong about my objections to this. If you based proving we beat teams with winning records off the end of season results that is WAY different then basing it off of in season marks. That I definitely can get behind. I was believing you were looking at in season records which I'm saying proves absolutely nothing (like saying we lead league in tackles as if that's a good thing) and you can't prove anything based on that. You said you wanted to disprove the common thought we didn't beat winning teams, to me we don't. So many times bad teams surprise early in the season not later so if your looking at end of season results that would be interesting to me because I also don't think minus possibly the Eagles that any of the teams we have won against this year would end up being winning record teams when the season ends. Nope - we couldn't, because we're looking at both W/L at the time of the game, and cumulatively for the season. If the Iggles end up a .500 or less team, we didn't beat a winning team. Or, put another way, if we beat the Bengals, who are 3-4 at the time of the game, and they go on to have a winning season, we beat a winner. - Got it, this makes perfect sense. Had you said this in the beginning I honestly wouldn't have ever posted. I believed that you simply wanted to be able to say we beat winning teams today which we don't. I understand why you want to say that, I understand how if you went week to week that it could be true, but when you get destroyed by the best team you've faced so far this season, and lose a game against a superior team in the last 5 minutes of the game you had in the bag, and then you lose a game in the last minute of the game to an okay not even good team this is not the time to be saying that. It may be true regardless depending how you want to look at it, and there will come a time to say that but now? Nope we haven't earned that yet. When we see teams like the Bengals and Lions on the schedule who are 8-8, 9-7 maybe to end the season and lick your chops thinking you can't wait until we play them because you know we are going to rip them a new one because we are that good then you can say that. Clearly we aren't there yet. We can get there but will take another off season to get there. Sorry my fellow Skins fan - I'm a nerd and I'm pretty analytical - So am I, you have no idea lol. HTTR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildbunny Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 I was thinking about this... Does it have to take into account who those teams with a winning record have beaten so far? Division wise, every team is not treated alike. Can we take the example of the Raiders that have to face the Broncos and Chiefs twice a year? That's four tough games. While the Texans have it easy with the Colts, Jaguars and Titans? And obviously, our Redskins team where the worst team in the division is 4-3? We're going against the Bengals that are 3-4 with wins against the Jets, the Dolphins and the Browns, who altogether have won a grand total of 5W (out of 21 games mostly, didn't checked if they played each other). And the Cowboys opponents are 17-23 because they've faced both the Bears and 49ers that are 1-6. So obviously two easy game for them... Now it gets really tough to judge... And I'm not even talking about hot or cold streaks. Heck the Falcons are 4-3, which is a winning team. But have just lost two in a row??? At our pace, we'll have a definition of "a Winning team" that is more complex that an NFL catch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MassSkinsFan Posted November 2, 2016 Author Share Posted November 2, 2016 Here are updated metrics following our tie: % of wins of all teams at time of game 0.519 % of wins of all teams we beat at time of game 0.615 % of wins of all teams to which we lost at time of game 0.375 Cumulative % of wins of all teams 0.490 Cumulative % of wins of all teams we beat 0.440 Cumulative % of wins of all teams to which we lost 0.579 Specific week's opponent win % 0.429 My takeaway from this (that's a London pun) is: We have played a lot of teams who had winning records when we played We have mostly beaten losers and lost to winners, when you look at their records today We are not yet beating winning teams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildbunny Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 Will a W against the Vikings help in any way regarding this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MassSkinsFan Posted November 3, 2016 Author Share Posted November 3, 2016 1 hour ago, Wildbunny said: Will a W against the Vikings help in any way regarding this? Good question. I'll have to plug in some numbers, but theoretically, no - it would have no effect since I'm not including the outcome of an opponent's game against the Skins in their overall record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildbunny Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 1 hour ago, MassSkinsFan said: Good question. I'll have to plug in some numbers, but theoretically, no - it would have no effect since I'm not including the outcome of an opponent's game against the Skins in their overall record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MassSkinsFan Posted November 22, 2016 Author Share Posted November 22, 2016 I missed last week, so here it is: % of wins of all teams at time of game 0.543 % of wins of all teams we beat at time of game 0.619 % of wins of all teams to which we lost at time of game 0.429 Cumulative % of wins of all teams 0.521 Cumulative % of wins of all teams we beat 0.512 Cumulative % of wins of all teams to which we lost 0.583 Specific week's opponent win % 0.625 Based on this, as of Week 10, we have played a lot of teams who had winning records when we met, and beaten a lot of teams who had winning records when we met; oddly we lost to teams who had losing records when we met (probably due to low n). Overall, we have played against winning teams (0.521) and have beaten winning teams too (0.512), though the teams we lost to were better than those we beat (0.583 vs. 0.512). Then there's the update for Week 11: % of wins of all teams at time of game 0.523 % of wins of all teams we beat at time of game 0.567 % of wins of all teams to which we lost at time of game 0.429 Cumulative % of wins of all teams 0.516 Cumulative % of wins of all teams we beat 0.491 Cumulative % of wins of all teams to which we lost 0.630 Specific week's opponent win % 0.444 There is a drop in % of cumulative wins of teams we beat, but not too much of a drop (0.512-0.491=0.021 or 2%). That change is at least partially attributable to us playing GB, who came into the game with a 4-5 (0.444) record. This week's opponent has a 0.900 record coming into the game, so if we win, the Cumulative % of wins of all teams we beat will go up significantly. To better illustrate the point, here is a trending table: WEEK 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 % of wins of all teams at time of game 0.000 0.667 0.333 0.500 0.571 0.550 0.519 0.543 0.523 % of wins of all teams we beat at time of game N/A 1.000 0.400 0.556 0.615 0.615 0.615 0.619 0.567 % of wins of all teams to which we lost at time of game 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.429 0.375 0.429 0.429 Cumulative % of wins of all teams 0.500 0.667 0.500 0.550 0.552 0.538 0.490 0.521 0.516 Cumulative % of wins of all teams we beat N/A 1.000 0.333 0.417 0.474 0.478 0.440 0.512 0.491 Cumulative % of wins of all teams to which we lost 0.500 0.500 0.667 0.750 0.700 0.588 0.579 0.583 0.630 Specific week's opponent win % 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.750 0.750 0.500 0.429 0.625 0.444 Geek out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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