VT's Quarterly Review

[Vilandil Tasardur]

Whelp, here we are at 1-3. When I started collecting notes and putting things together for an assessment of our standing after four weeks (last week), things were decidedly less glum. However, I've chosen to stick to my notes and try to make an honest assessment of where we stand both as a team and as individual units compared to the rest of the NFL through four weeks. I've made an honest attempt to avoid hyperbole such as "we are the worst O line in the league" and other such unhelpful nonsense.

 

 

Offensive Skill Positions

 

We are who we thought we were. We have absolute studs at WR1-3, we have a top 3 RB in the league, a top 3 FB in the league, and a lot of uncertainty at the quarterback position.

 

When Robert was in the game he was exactly who I thought he was. He made plays with his legs, and made throws that dropped your jaw at his arm talent. But he hung in the pocket WAY to long, determined to be a pocket passer. He clutched and double clutched and rarely anticipated guys getting open. He struggled to read the defense PRE snap. If his first read was open, he was great. If his first read wasn't open, he did alright to move to the next guy. But he really struggled to get the right guy PRE snap to minimize how many times he had to move to the 2nd and 3rd read. And this is a HUGE skill that he needs because of the offensive line.

 

When Kirk was in the game, things were up and down. I thought he did a FABULOUS job of getting the ball out quick, sometimes too quick. This is a critical skill, but it needs to be coupled with the above mentioned ability to get the first read right pre snap. I thought he got the first read right about 80% of the time, meaning that getting the ball out quick was excellent. The first interception last Thursday to Grant is an example of this going wrong. He got the WRONG pre snap read, but still got the ball out quick. Other guys were open, but they never had a chance because he made the wrong read pre snap.

 

That said, I still think he's going to have a very good career somewhere.

 

 

Offensive Line

 

The biggest disappointment by far has been Trent Williams. At the end of last year I would have argued that he was the best LT in the game. Today, he's sitting outside the top 5. He's not had a good year at all. Penalties, getting beat inside, looking lazy, it's been rough. I think that Kory has played great at Center. I think that left guard has been a struggle Lauvo pass blocked better than Lerib, but didn't run block nearly as well. I think Chester should probably get all of the hate that Polumbus gets.

 

I think that Tyler Polumbus had a GOOD first three games. I thought he played against the Texans about as well as anyone could have facing J.J. Watt. I thought he had a great game against the Jags and don't blame him for the first sack on Robert. Kirk's play in that game showed how a QB is supposed to bail the line out. I thought he did a great job against the Eagles, mostly because they almost never faced third and long. But he absolutely blew it against New York. It was just a straight up bad game.

 

 

Defensive Front Seven

 

A mix of good and bad really. The defensive line has too many injuries to hold them too accountable. Hatcher has been a beast when healthy, struggled when hampered. Everyone else has been in and out. Robinson is a man on fire. Riley is an exceptional run stopping LB who can't cover well at all. AT ALL. Orakpo is quietly proving why we franchised tagged him. (Lol, who am I kidding). Orakpo is loudly shouting for us how replaceable his is. And I don't give a damn about a cast on his hand. Flip him with Kerrigan let him rush on the RTs. It won't matter. Kerrigan is doing his best to be J.J. Watt with less talent and is succeeding on a much smaller scale.

 

 

Defense Backfield

 

Amerson is showing signs of really developing into a starting corner. I don't think he'll ever be a "put me on the best guy in the league and forget about us" corner, but he'll have a 10+ year respected career for sure. The problem is everyone else. Clark is out there playing with a lot of pride. For the most part, his mental ability masks his physical ability. But there's only so much he can do. 

 

Merriweather was VERY, VERY rusty. He's been atrocious covering seams and anything vertical over the middle. This is exacerbated by the fact that Riley can't cover those outs either, leaving a gaping hole. Send three verticals on us every time. We cannot cover it. We just don't have the personnel. 

 

I'm going to get flamed and I don't care. I think we gave up on Rambo too early. I think the fans wanted a scape goat and the coaches gave them one. The truth is that through two games he had two bad plays. They were atrocious, and unforgivable, but they were two bad plays. In a single game against Philly Merriweather had at least 4 equally awful plays. Against New York? 4-6? Hindsight is 20/20, and we didn't know Merriweather would be so rusty, but if we had kept him not he roster we may have been able to stop the bleeding in Philly and NY. 

 

 

 

Overall Team Comments

 

Overall, I still think we are who we thought we were. We're an 8-8 team with a lot of talent but a lot of young, undisciplined guys. We have the skills to make amazing plays, but we also commit turnovers and penalties that kill us. 

 

That said, I don't think the sky is falling. Our guys got absolutely abused in the Philly game and just plum had nothing left in the tank for New York. I know, technically they had a short week too, but it isn't the same. We had half our team in the ice baths after the Philly game and just didn't recover in time. There's no shame in it. Two tough division games with no rest between them is a tall order for most teams. 

 

I also want to draw attention to a curiosity that is the modern NFL. Games that are quite close often end in blow outs now because offenses have such serious advantages. For example:

 

Yesterday, the Chicago beats played Green Bay about as perfectly as they could have for the first half. For 28 minutes of football, we saw two teams that were out maneuvering and outscoring each other with brilliance. The difference in the game was one single possession in which the bears kicked a FG instead of punching it in. Then, as time expired, they got tackled on the one and failed to score points before half. That momentum did them in. They came out flat after halftime, stumbled for one possession, ONE possession, and Aaron Rodgers never looked back. The score ended as a blow out on paper, and looks like they Bears got crushed. But in reality, if they get that extra yard into the end zone and go into halftime with a four point lead and possession, the game has a solid chance of ending differently.

 

I feel like Thursday night was similar for us. That Paulsen fumble ruined the game for us. Instead of possibly coming out at halftime to tie the game, we had to come out at halftime to play catch up. The result was that one mistake, even just a single mistake, would get magnified beyond repair. A mistake is exactly what we got. 

 

Kirk cousins through an interception towards Ryan Grant that I mention above. It was the wrong read and a little inaccurate to boot. But because of Paulsen's fumble, we never had a chance to overcome that mistake. That mistake did us in. From that interception on, the offense was forced to press. Cousins made a couple of more bad decisions and the blow out was on.

 

But if I learned anything from watching Brett Favre for twenty years, it's that the nature of interceptions matter. I watched many games in which the Packers, down 14 in the fourth quarter, watched Brett throw 2-3 interceptions as he tried to will them back. ESPN and the pundits would all talk about how he threw 3 picks in a loss, but this narrative was wrong. This was him throwing 3 picks as he tried to wrestle them back from a deficit.

 

This is how I see the NY game. Yes, Cousins threw 4 interceptions. At least 3 of which I deem inexcusable mistakes. But to me, the game was lost before that. And I don't blame a young QB for throwing deep in the fourth quarter down 2-3 scores. Hell, I'd rather they throw picks trying to get yards than dink and dunk their way down field in the interest of losing pretty. 

 

 

 

*****I am not a Cousins homer. I have not decided which QB I prefer, mostly because I have not seen Kirk play enough games. But I am also not a Cousins hater. I am commenting on his play and his play only, except early on when I comment on RG3's play and his play only. At no point during any of this do I attempt to contrast them whatsoever*********

 

 

Let me know what you guys think of the write up. Hopefully you guys like it; I'd like to do something like for each quarter of the season.

 

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

Who the hell are you?

 

(That may be a tad harsh, but I tend to take these "Let me analyze everything about everything" posts with a grain of salt when they are by posters I recognize. I don't know who you are).

 

 

Overall Team Comments

 

Overall, I still think we are who we thought we were. We're an 8-8 team with a lot of talent but a lot of young, undisciplined guys. We have the skills to make amazing plays, but we also commit turnovers and penalties that kill us. 

 

 

 

Also....no.

[Vilandil Tasardur]

Who the hell are you?

 

(That may be a tad harsh, but I tend to take these "Let me analyze everything about everything" posts with a grain of salt when they are by posters I recognize. I don't know who you are).

 

 

Also....no.

That's fair. I'm just a dude. Or perhaps JAG?

 

I prefer to lurk, mostly because I have a crazy work schedule and it seems like every time I get into debates I end up having to take hours away to get stuff done. But I like to think I know a little football, and guys like GHH can vouch for me knowing a little sports in general (we talk plenty of tennis).

 

 

What bit of that last part did you disagree with? The 8-8? The talent? The turnovers and penalties (God I hope not lol).

 

Joe Gibbs started off 0-5 before turning things around by doing this thing called improving. I don't think we have a shot at sniffing the playoffs wight his "talent" and all of the injuries. But I think young guys like Amerson and Breeland will continue to improve. We will definitely win some games this year I think.

[Vilandil Tasardur]

I also want to draw attention to a curiosity that is the modern NFL. Games that are quite close often end in blow outs now because offenses have such serious advantages. For example:

 

Yesterday, the Chicago beats played Green Bay about as perfectly as they could have for the first half. For 28 minutes of football, we saw two teams that were out maneuvering and outscoring each other with brilliance. The difference in the game was one single possession in which the bears kicked a FG instead of punching it in. Then, as time expired, they got tackled on the one and failed to score points before half. That momentum did them in. They came out flat after halftime, stumbled for one possession, ONE possession, and Aaron Rodgers never looked back. The score ended as a blow out on paper, and looks like they Bears got crushed. But in reality, if they get that extra yard into the end zone and go into halftime with a four point lead and possession, the game has a solid chance of ending differently.

 

I feel like Thursday night was similar for us. That Paulsen fumble ruined the game for us. Instead of possibly coming out at halftime to tie the game, we had to come out at halftime to play catch up. The result was that one mistake, even just a single mistake, would get magnified beyond repair. A mistake is exactly what we got. 

 

Kirk cousins through an interception towards Ryan Grant that I mention above. It was the wrong read and a little inaccurate to boot. But because of Paulsen's fumble, we never had a chance to overcome that mistake. That mistake did us in. From that interception on, the offense was forced to press. Cousins made a couple of more bad decisions and the blow out was on.

 

But if I learned anything from watching Brett Favre for twenty years, it's that the nature of interceptions matter. I watched many games in which the Packers, down 14 in the fourth quarter, watched Brett throw 2-3 interceptions as he tried to will them back. ESPN and the pundits would all talk about how he threw 3 picks in a loss, but this narrative was wrong. This was him throwing 3 picks as he tried to wrestle them back from a deficit.

 

This is how I see the NY game. Yes, Cousins threw 4 interceptions. At least 3 of which I deem inexcusable mistakes. But to me, the game was lost before that. And I don't blame a young QB for throwing deep in the fourth quarter down 2-3 scores. Hell, I'd rather they throw picks trying to get yards than dink and dunk their way down field in the interest of losing pretty. 

 

 

I feel like tonight's game highlights this as well. On the one hand, the Patriots struggled ALL first half. I'm not going to argue that they were ever really in it.

 

Everyone will say that Tom Brady had an awful not.

 

I would argue that this is not true. I saw a light of tightly contested balls by receivers who weren't getting open. I saw a lot of close calls that bounced the wrong way in the first half. I saw a team that was down but in position to come back coming out of the half. And then I saw a colossal mistake by the left tackle that blew the game open.

 

As far as I'm concerned, the two picks after that aren't really important. You're down 3+ scores. What the hell does it matter if you throw a couple of picks. The game was lost long before. You might as well go down throwing.

 

All we'll be hearing about tomorrow are Brady's 4 turnovers. But the context tells us much more.

[ExoDus84]

I hate when people take it upon themselves to start long winded threads discussing their opinions, as if their opinion is unique and special and deserves it's own thread, when the same thoughts could have been put into a number of already-existing threads.

 

I mean no offense at all to the OP, but I see this all over the internet and it's a pet peeve of mine.