The Bears, Giants, and Seahawks ALL WIN OUT and we miss the paloffs...

[DogofWar1]

The 49ers losing out is really tough to see. I can see the Pats beating them, and the Seahawks, but I just cannot see the Cardinals doing it. I don't see the Cardinals beating anyone in the next three games. They just look so defeated.

The easiest 2 paths are through the Giants or Bears. If either of them lose this week, we control our own destiny, assuming we beat the Browns.

In that situation we'd be either in the 4th spot, facing the 5-seed, probably the Seahawks, at home, or the 6th seed, facing the 3 seed, probably the Packers, at GB. Neither of those games sounds fun quite frankly, Seattle is quietly one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL, and GB at home is GB. Nobody can go into Rodgers' stomping ground with a good chance to win.

One interesting scenario might be if we ended up the 6th seed, but Giants or 49ers somehow took the 3rd seed. Not fun, seeing as how the Giants tend to win a lot in the postseason, and 49ers are really solid, but could happen.

And then there's a few other things that happen if Green Bay fights their way to a 2 seed, or the Seahawks manage to overtake the 49ers and become the 3 or 4 seed.

But at the end of the day, we need either the Bears or Giants to drop one, Seahawks to drop 2, or 49ers to drop 3 (or GB could drop 3 and Chicago swoop in).

---------- Post added December-10th-2012 at 09:57 PM ----------

I think you're being conservative. I'd say there's less than a 1% chance we miss the playoffs if we win out. We need 9 games to go the wrong way for us to win out and miss the playoffs(and even if all 9 do we have the 49ers swoon predicted in the thread as a last ditch possibility). The odds of picking 9 coin flips wrong is 0.2%, now I know these games aren't coin flips, but I can think of at least 3 games where the team we need to win would be favored (Packers - Bears & Giants - Falcons next week and Seahawks - 49ers the following week). So, in a few cases you could say the coin is weighted in our favor.

I agree that it is likely we get the help we need, but until we actually control our own fate I wouldn't say we have 99% chance of making it if we win out. 95% might be a little high even. Somewhere around 85% feels right to me. I mean, Bears are likely to lose to the Packers, and Giants have tough games, but you never know. All it takes for us to be in trouble is for Bears to win next week, and Giants to just keep winning.

Suddenly, Bears, Packers, and Giants would all be 9-5 with two to go and none of them play each other.

[Mr. Nostril]

But at the end of the day, we need either the Bears or Giants to drop one, Seahawks to drop 2, or 49ers to drop 3 (or GB could drop 3 and Chicago swoop in).

Important to note that we only need the Seahawks to drop 2 if one of their losses is to the Bills this week. If they lose to the 49ers in Week 16 or the Rams in week 17, then the Seahawks have lost another conference game and we'll have the tiebreaker. If they lose to only the Bills, it will only affect their overall record, and the tiebreaker will move to common games on which the Seahawks have the advantage.

[U C S D SkinsFan]

If we win out , I like our chances a lot ... Bears will lose a game and Seahawks maybe against SF. The giants are gonna spank the Falcons, I don't see them losing again this year. Past couple of years, we are their only kryptonite lol 3 in a row or we don't go!

[DogofWar1]

Important to note that we only need the Seahawks to drop 2 if one of their losses is to the Bills this week. If they lose to the 49ers in Week 16 or the Rams in week 17, then the Seahawks have lost another conference game and we'll have the tiebreaker. If they lose to only the Bills, it will only affect their overall record, and the tiebreaker will move to common games on which the Seahawks have the advantage.

Good point. Honestly, I'd like to see the Seahawks somehow miss the playoffs, and us take the 4 seed from the Giants. That would put either the Giants, Bears, or *maybe* the Vikings against us as the 5 seed, and I think all but the Giants at home are more winnable than the Seahawks. Giants are the Giants, they do their wacky postseason antics, which personally I'd prefer we just stay away from until we absolutely have to.

So yeah, here's hoping the 49ers beat them, which they should try to because they'll definitely have something to play for in that matchup.

[Mr. Nostril]

Because I'm a huge probability nerd, I think it would be interesting to try and put a guess on what the actual probability is that the Redskins win out and miss the playoffs.

I think the best method for figuring that out is to take the vegas point spreads for the 3 relevant games we know, guess at the vegas point spreads for the 9 relavant games we don't know, convert them to moneyline odds, convert that to a percentage chance that the team we don't want to win wins, and multiply them together.

So:

Giants @ Falcons (week 15)

PS: Giants +1.5

ML: +110

%: 47.6%

Packers @ Bears (Week 15)

PS: Bears +3

ML: +145

%: 40.8%

49ers @ Patriots

PS: 49ers +3

ML: +145

%: 40.8

Bears @ Cardinals

PS: Bears -3.5

ML: -185

%: 64.9%

Giants @ Ravens

PS: Pick

ML -110

%: 52.4

49ers @ Seahawks

PS: Seahawks +2.5

ML: +120

%: 45.5%

Eagles @ Giants

PS: Giants -14

ML: -920

%: 90.2%

Bears @ Lions

PS: Bears -2.5

ML: -135

%: 57.4%

Packers @ Vikings

PS: Packers -1.5

ML: -125

%: 55.6%

Cardinals @ 49ers

PS: 49ers -10.5

ML: -565

%: 85.0%

Rams @ Seahawks

PS: Seahawks -4.5

ML: -220

%: 68.8%

The odds the 49ers beat either the Patriots or the Cardinals = 1-((1-.85)*(1-.408)) = .926

.926*.476*.408*.649*.524*.455*.902*.574*.556*.688=.0055

or 0.6%.

This of course isn't perfect, first because a lot of it is subjectively based on my own guesses as to what the point spread is going to be in week 16 & 17. And to a lesser degree, because the vegas odds are not intended to be actual statistical guesses as to the actual odds of who wins a football game. Rather the line is put where bookmakers think they will make the most money.

If anyone has access to advanced point spreads, or a better method for predicting the chances that each team has of winning a game and I will update this.