Jason Campbell vs. Tom Brady

[Oldfan]

Ok fine oldfan, let me give you an example

Put an infant at the QB position.

Yes? Now what?

[Vooskin]

Now determine the value of the position, duh.

[Oldfan]

Ok fine oldfan, let me give you an example

Put an infant at the QB position. See how well the team goes down field. Is the position still only 10%?

Make the QB an adult and his 10 teammates infants. How far does he go alone?

Can you be specific about the value? What percentage would YOU give the position?

[Vooskin]

Well the QB can run, might have a problem with the handoff but its a td every play. Minimum ill go 20%, maximum 30%. You can score points from both special teams and defense but defense is designed to keep points from being scored against you. Teams that win with defense and the running game beat you by hoping you make mistakes and capitalizing them. Eliminate mistakes and viola.

To obtain % we need to understand what we are analyzing. We say 100% for overall team but then another team that is better we are still valuing it at 100%? As a position value hes only worth about 4.5% excluding special teams. Understanding the actual effect the position has on the team is what we are doing, to only say he is twice as valuable as a WR or offensivelineman is silly.

Team A and Team B the Qb position is only about 10% value you say but Team B has a qb people would say is 5 times better then team A's QB. If we assume that Team B QB is the best possible and value him at 10% then team A QB is only worth 2% and the team is playing at 92%. Everything gets messed up because you are placing stupid values on position and you wont allow a maximum(perfect player) to sort of compare to. If you wont allow Perfects then how can you place a % on the value of a position when the position value varies depending on the QB.

[Vooskin]

Put it like this Oldfan, being good at the QB position allows for optimal success. If you fail at QB then you can make a running team but if you cant block you get stuffed, if you cant block well on passing downs a good qb can get rid of it quickly and make the defense pay. A good running back can be valued alot, he can make players miss but when the ball is in his hands 99% of the time the defense is all in pursuit. When the ball is in the QB's hands its a different story.

Ill take a shaky O-line ,good WRs, bad running back, and a Great QB over a shaky QB, good blocking WRs, a great oline and a great running back.

I'm done here. I can see you're gone so I'll go play some madden then do a little studying before bed. If you respond before then I'll try to respond back. I just wish you had more insight or put up more of a debate instead of anything that doesn't work in your favor you disregard.

[Oldfan]

Well the QB can run, might have a problem with the handoff but its a td every play.

How'd you figure that? You made the defenders infants too!:laugh:

Minimum ill go 20%, maximum 30%.

From you earlier post, I expected a much higher estimate from you. That's not half bad.

Alright, let's use 25% as your estimate. Now take a look at my estimate again and tell me where you're going to pick up the additional 15%.

You already have the QB being worth more than the 25 members of the coaching staff put together -- the training, the schemes, the game plan, the play calling.

You have the QB being worth more that I've given the entire passing game. Is the running game worth just 10%? How about his protection? Is that worth anything? His receivers?

Let's see how you give the QB 25% and keep the other numbers realistic.

Importance to winning = 100%

20% -- Coaching

10% -- Special Teams

35% -- Defense

35% -- Offense

Offense Broken Down:

15% -- total running game

....7% -- RB

....8% -- Blockers

20% --Passing Game

....5% -- Protectors

....5% -- Receivers

...10% -- QB

[NoGravity]

Is this really a thread saying Campbell is just as good as Brady? :doh: This is worse than the Landry>Polamalu thread.

[Oldfan]

Is this really a thread saying Campbell is just as good as Brady? :doh: This is worse than the Landry>Polamalu thread.

Did you bother to read the Landry>Polamalu thread? It's obvious you didn't bother to read this one -- not even the OP.

[Oldfan]

To obtain % we need to understand what we are analyzing. We say 100% for overall team but then another team that is better we are still valuing it at 100%?

Of course. We aren't grading teams and, if we were, using percentages would not be the way to do it.

As a position value hes only worth about 4.5% excluding special teams

.

What? I thought you said 20 -30%

Understanding the actual effect the position has on the team is what we are doing, to only say he is twice as valuable as a WR or offensivelineman is silly.

Right. That's what we're doing--putting a value on the actual effect of the position. Look at my numbers again. I don't have values for individual linemen and WRs. I have them grouped.

Team A and Team B the Qb position is only about 10% value you say but Team B has a qb people would say is 5 times better then team A's QB...

You're confused. We are putting a value on the position in offenses like the Pats and Skins. The quality of the QB doesn't impact the value of the position. There is no objective way to measure the quality of a QB isolated from his team.

[harrison56]

Trying to estimate the importance of any position on a football team is vertually impossible. If any one player misses their assignment or doesn't perform well, the entire team fails. The reason teams like the Pats are so good is every player understands their assignments and is familiar with everyone elses. Every player trusts that everyone will be in the right place at the right time.

[SkinsFTW]

What about the ability of the quarterback to make others better at their positions? Does the offensive line execute their blocks better because they can trust Brady to execute the play precisely the way it was practiced? Do the wide receivers run a better route because they aren't used to adjusting for a poorly thrown ball? Does the defense play with more confidence and aggressiveness because they know that the game doesn't rest on their shoulders, putting them in a prevent mindset?

I think a good quarterback can have an effect on the game that reaches beyond his own position on the field. That's how a good quarterback accounts for more wins than one would expect from your percentages.

This answer is why oldfan's % based formula will not work.

Lets look at a play like the JC fumble returned for 6.

Campbell makes the entire OL's job much more difficult on that play than it should be. He's 10-11 yards behind the LOS and steps up 1.5 yards and is too late doing everything. Samuels and I think Thomas too end up losing their guys because of the angle the defender still has to Campbell since he isn't in the pocket. He should be 3-4 yards forward of where he drops.

Brady doesn't do this. He makes the OL, even a bad OL, a lot better because he is in the correct position for their blocks and they know it. He also makes the whole offenses job easier when he does that PA fake on the same play because the Defense will have to respect the run with Portis in the backfield. Why? Because the defense isn't going to be playing additional defenders in the box and recklessly rush their linemen like that when they know Brady will be protected and he will burn them down the field very quickly and if they don't Portis will go 6-15 yards on them every down until they do. Our offense plays right into the strength of the Giants defense because of who we start at QB. He neutralizes every advantage we might possibly have.

The fact that Brady is respected by the defense and Campbell is disrespected by playing so many defenders close also benefits the entire offense. So that 10% isn't anything close to reality. Defenses play 8-9 in the box because they know Zorn isn't going to trust Campbell to try to burn them often and when he does he misses or is out of place and fumbles anyway with pressure. How is the QB 10% when he effects everybody else positively if he's good or negatively if he's bad?

Brady makes his RB better, though rarely used in NE. There is always room to run when the defense is playing pass. He makes his receivers better by his deciciveness and recognition of defense and he spreads the ball around keeping the receivers motivated and in the game, gives the whole team a better chance to win late in the game by not burning TO's for no reason, makes the game plan better because the coach trusts him enough to not turn off the offense after he makes a mistake or 3. He still plays the game. Campbell gets told to hand off or throw 3-5 yard passes.

How is that 10%? I couldn't possibly put a % on the position. It would be like 100% total is an average team. With Campbell he makes our team a 90%-100% and if we had Brady it would be 125% because he would add a couple points to everybody else on offense and make the gameplan much better than if Campbell was running it, make the coaching staff better because they wouldn't have to improvise on the spot when he makes a mistake.

Only the New York Giants in the SB beat Brady and the Pats in 07 and if you remember the reason may have been that Belichick was soo confident in Brady that despite the Giants blitzing him non stop the entire game Belichick never made the first adjustment to the protection or the play calling. They kept doing their thing and it didn't work too well. Brady was so good the whole year that Belichick forgot that his job was to make adjustments. So basically the Giants won by using all the good things they do against them and Belichick went right along with it.

[Oldfan]

Trying to estimate the importance of any position on a football team is vertually impossible. If any one player misses their assignment or doesn't perform well, the entire team fails.

That just isn't true. If each and every offensive player had to beat his defender to make the play work, -- winning all 10 individual battles and perfect execution by the QB -- we would never see a successful offensive play.

[Oldfan]

SkinsFTW -- This answer is why oldfan's % based formula will not work.

You quoted a poster who asked: What about the ability of the quarterback to make others better at their positions?

The question illustrates why so many fans typically overrate the QB position. They think that the dependency is a one-way street. They see that a good QB can make his teammates and coaches look better. They don't see that his teammates on the offense and his coaches can make the QB look better.

You made that mistake again in the following comment:

Only the New York Giants in the SB beat Brady and the Pats in 07 and if you remember the reason may have been that Belichick was soo confident in Brady that despite the Giants blitzing him non stop the entire game Belichick never made the first adjustment

You blame Belichik for the offense's failures in their Super Bowl with the Giants, but you don't give him credit for giving Brady what Matt Bowen called "the most quarterback friendly scheme in the NFL" when the team wins.

How is that 10%? I couldn't possibly put a % on the position. It would be like 100% total is an average team. With Campbell he makes our team a 90%-100% and if we had Brady it would be 125%

This comment shows that you don't even understand the purpose of the estimate I made in the OP. I would try to explain it to you, but since other posters understood it, and debated it intelligently, I know the problem isn't on my end. I figure since we're almost 800 posts into this -- if you don't have a handle on it by now, it's not likely you ever will.

[Oldfan]

Brady doesn't put himself in position to be sacked as often as Campbell does.

In the Jets' 16-9 win over the Patriots, Rex Ryan's defense put Tom Brady under more pressure than he usually sees. A couple of the guys at Football Outsiders commented on the results.

Bill Barnwell: Brady's mechanics are all out of whack. Throwing off his back foot, not stepping into throws when there's pressure ... he looks bad.

Mike Tanier: Brady played poorly. He missed Welker and Faulk out there, but he still played poorly. He missed a few throws he normally makes in his sleep, and while he couldn't step into his passes on many occasions, he also just looked rattled on a few. That overload kept working and working: forcing Brady to throw on the move.

[MattFancy]

So who saw this one coming....

Through 4 games:

Jason Campbell- 963 yards 5 TDs 5 INTs 66% 85.5

Tom Brady- 1129 yards 4 TDs 2 INTs 62% 83.7

[Dirk Diggler]

So who saw this one coming....

Through 4 games:

Jason Campbell- 963 yards 5 TDs 5 INTs 66% 85.5

Tom Brady- 1129 yards 4 TDs 2 INTs 62% 83.7

QB rating is for tools. Brady, despite having a shoulder injury and coming off the complete destruction of his knee, has been much better.

How many TDs have each of these QBs led their teams to? How many total points? How about the strength of the opposing defenses?

[SonnyJ]

So who saw this one coming....

Through 4 games:

Jason Campbell- 963 yards 5 TDs 5 INTs 66% 85.5

Tom Brady- 1129 yards 4 TDs 2 INTs 62% 83.7

You're right. Jason Campbell is a better QB than Tom Brady.

I don't know how anyone could have ever thought differently. :whoknows:

[myzhi]

You're right. Jason Campbell is a better QB than Tom Brady.

I don't know how anyone could have ever thought differently. :whoknows:

If Pats want's to trade JC for Brady. We want at least 2nd rounder in return otherwise they would be robbing us.