SI.com: Sixteen teams that make up the offseason's winners, losers

[TC4]

From SI.com:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/inside_game/don_banks/news/2003/04/09/free_agency/

Eight-ball

Sixteen teams that make up the offseason's winners, losers

Free agency and the draft are the two bookends of a team's offseason makeover in the NFL. With the vast majority of free-agent activity finished, and teams officials beginning to descend deep into their draft preparation bunkers, we've arrived at something resembling halftime in the talent acquisition game.

So who do you like for Super Bowl XXXVIII so far? Which teams have won more than their share of free agency battles in February, March and April, and will those successes translate into victories starting in September? Which teams already have lost ground since the close of the 2002 season, and need to come through even more so than usual on draft weekend?

Here's our take on the eight teams that have pushed mostly the right buttons so far, and the eight that have struggled to build momentum on the personnel front. As for the mixed bag of the 16 teams in between, check back with us in July, when we'll have a better idea of this offseason's winners and losers:

The Elite Eight ...

What's not to like about Buffalo's aggressive overhaul of its defense, which ranked 27th in points allowed and 29th against the run last season? The Bills got better in terms of run-stopping with defensive tackle Sam Adams and end Keith McKenzie, improved their tackling and play-making at linebacker with Takeo Spikes and Jeff Posey, and upgraded at free safety with Izell Reese. Overall, they're quicker across the board on defense.

Plus, they played the tricky Peerless Price situation like a Stradivarius, trading their No. 2 receiver to Atlanta for a No. 1 draft pick. That means they're back in the draft, even after giving up their 2003 No. 1 last year in the Drew Bledsoe deal. If Josh Reed steps up at receiver, replacing Price, the Bills are right there in the rugged AFC East. This much we're certain of: Nobody in the division has improved more.

After the gloom and doom of recent seasons, new head coach Jack Del Rio has infused the Jaguars with optimism. Yes, only three years have passed since Jacksonville was in the AFC title game, but for a franchise that has played only eight seasons, that's almost half a lifetime ago. The mood in Jacksonville is much improved. Del Rio, with help from new general manager James Harris, has re-energized a fan base spoiled by early success.

Free agency opened slowly for the Jaguars, but the deeper into the offseason they go, the better things get. They landed a proven pass rusher and team leader in defensive end Hugh Douglas, and also upgraded at linebacker with dependable veterans Mike Peterson and Kevin Mitchell. Second-tier additions like fullback Marc Edwards, return man Jermaine Lewis and receiver Donald Hayes also could reap dividends. They probably overpaid for Peterson and Edwards, but the once cap-strapped Jags have sent a message: They're back in the game.

Obviously the best move the Bengals made this offseason was forsaking their organizational model in the hiring of head coach Marvin Lewis, which has created genuine hope that a turnaround might be forthcoming. A change in tone and attitude is always needed after years of losing, and Lewis so far has hit almost all the right notes in a way that it's hard to imagine the more well-established Tom Coughlin would have.

Even better, after turning things over to Lewis, the Bengals kept the momentum going with several shrewd free agency moves, the kind they're really not known for. They picked up a decent cover corner in Tory James, a linebacker who's still useful in Kevin Hardy, two on-the-come defensive linemen -- John Thornton and Carl Powell -- and an underappreciated tight end, Reggie Kelly. Had they played the Spikes game a little better, extracting something in trade for him, their offseason would be boffo.

The Patriots would make this list if for no other reason than the stealthy manner in which they secured ex-Bears linebacker Rosevelt Colvin, one of the big prizes in this year's free agency class. New England kept its negotiations with Colvin so quiet, I'm not even sure Colvin knew he had signed with the Patriots until the deal was announced. When it comes to keeping their own counsel, few can play in the league occupied by head coach Bill Belichick and V.P. of player personnel Scott Pioli.

In landing Colvin, whose versatile skills are ideal for the Belichick's 3-4 defense, the Patriots got a much-needed injection of speed. Fast on the heels of Colvin's arrival was strong safety Rodney Harrison, who at 31 can still be a force when healthy. Throw in new cornerback Tyrone Poole, and New England's defense received an intriguing minor make-over. Still ahead is the possible trade of free safety Tebucky Jones, which could bring more bounty for the draft.

The Panthers' six-game improvement to 7-9 last season was the biggest jump in the NFL, and the moves they've made this offseason have built nicely on that upswing. With Carolina's defense soaring to second overall in 2002, the focus has been on inching the 31st-ranked offense a little closer to the middle of the pack. If all goes as planned, free agency delivered an economical starting quarterback, Jake Delhomme, a proven lead running back in Stephen Davis, a solid guard in Doug Brzezinski and two quality receivers in Kevin Dyson and Ricky Proehl.

The only glaring need not addressed is right tackle, where career backup Melvin Tuten was a midseason fill-in for the released Chris Terry. If Carolina can parlay its No. 9 pick into Utah tackle Jordan Gross, and select guard Kevin Donnalley's eventual replacement later in the draft, the Panthers will be in position to take the next step to playoff contender.

The Chiefs didn't make the big splash they were hoping for in free agency, landing a premier pass rusher like Douglas or Colvin to aid their bedraggled defense, but there were smaller, encouraging developments. The late addition of defensive end Vonnie Holliday nudged the Chiefs onto our list. He won't be a 10-sack guy, but Holliday knows his way to the quarterback and is a solid, dependable player. His signing signals that K.C. didn't like its chances of adding an impact defensive end at No. 16 in the first round.

Before Holliday arrived, the Chiefs upgraded by adding linebacker Shawn Barber, an under-appreciated talent. Also key was the re-signing of linebacker Mike Maslowski, who blossomed last year. With the expected return to health of free safety Jerome Woods and defensive tackle Ryan Sims, as well as the addition of free-agent cornerback Dexter McCleon, the Chiefs have reason to believe they're markedly better on defense. One caveat: With only Todd Collins as a backup quarterback, K.C. continues to put all its eggs in the Trent Green-stays-healthy basket.

The Falcons had two clear-cut priorities heading into the offseason: The re-signing of Pro Bowl middle linebacker Keith Brooking and the acquisition of a No. 1 receiver for quarterback Michael Vick to throw to. By those standards, Atlanta has had a successful two months or so. Brooking was secured before he made it to the marketplace, and Price arrived from Buffalo in exchange for a 2003 first-round pick. The Falcons overpaid on both contracts, but give them credit for getting their men.

What else has Atlanta accomplished? Not a lot in the way of headline moves. But then again, the Falcons were a playoff team in 2002 and didn't have that many holes. The biggest remaining void remains in the secondary. Atlanta has added safety Corey Hall, and cornerbacks Tyrone Williams and Tod McBride, but it isn't done. Look for the Birds to address the secondary in the draft, albeit without a first or third-round pick. One other free-agent addition bears noting: Ex-Cardinal MarTay Jenkins was a nice pickup and adds even more speed to Atlanta's receiving corps.

While some of the Redskins' myriad moves seemed to lack both rhyme and reason -- Rob Johnson executing Steve Spurrier's disciplined passing game?; the push for Green Bay backup safety Matt Bowen? -- Washington has made plenty of good decisions this offseason. The best one might have born fruit this week, when an arbitrator awarded restricted free-agent return man Chad Morton to the Redskins in exchange for a fifth-round pick. That's a nice little heist.

The Redskins also can feel good about the three other ex-Jets they've acquired: lead receiver Laveranues Coles, guard Randy Thomas and kicker John Hall. Even if Hall remains streaky, all three players are considerable upgrades for Washington. Such might not be the case for running back Trung Canidate, defensive end Regan Upshaw and defensive tackle Brandon Noble, who are being asked to play positions manned last season by Stephen Davis, Bruce Smith and Daryl Gardener.

... and eight that fell short

When you open the offseason by losing your starting quarterback and your Pro Bowl-level receiver, without getting anything in return for either one, you're playing from behind from that point forward. Agree or disagree, letting Jake Plummer walk in free agency was defensible. But the Cardinals were unwise to not play the tag-and-trade game with David Boston, even with his obvious question marks. He's too young and too good to just let him skip town. The Emmitt Smith signing was a great PR move, but it remains to be seen if his on-field impact will help Arizona, or hinder the development of young running back Marcel Shipp. And wither the receivers?

Coming off the disaster of their 4-12 year in Champaign, the only thing the Bears have given their fans to feel bubbly about this offseason was the no-brainer decision to match Minnesota's offer sheet to their reliable kicker, Paul Edinger. Try selling tickets with that as your centerpiece. The signing of ex-Steeler Kordell Stewart to a two-year deal was viewed as the makeshift move that it is, given that the draft is expected to bring a second-round quarterback to groom. Gone are Colvin, Jim Miller and James "Big Cat" Williams -- three pretty significant pieces from Chicago's glorious 13-3 season of 2001. Head coach Dick Jauron might be next if the Bears don't climb back to respectability.

OK, I'll give you that landing Steve Mariucci on the rebound from San Francisco was the best decision of Matt Millen's rocky three-year reign. But heck, he even got into trouble in some quarters for that one. Now that the Lions have a head coach they can win with, they best turn their attention back to the roster. The defense is still a mess, and sorry, signing ex-Rams cornerback Dré Bly to an inflated free-agent contract does not constitute a productive offseason. Earl Holmes will replace the departed Chris Claiborne at middle linebacker, but that sounds like a wash to me. The Lions re-signed a lot of their own players, but some would say that's a suspect philosophy for a team that has won five games in the past two seasons.

Nobody's claiming the Eagles have sacrificed their standing as the NFC East's elite team. And few organizations do a better job of plugging holes and continuing to win than Philadelphia. But the talent drain from the Eagles' roster has not been insignificant. On defense, Douglas, Shawn Barber, Barry Gardner and Al Harris are gone. On offense, Brzezinski and running backs Dorsey Levens and Cecil Martin have exited. Philly's special teams lost the productive Brian Mitchell and the ageless Sean Landeta. The addition of linebacker Nate Wayne was a solid move, and Jon Ritchie is a quality replacement at fullback. Linebacker Mark Simoneau is a lesser-known quantity. The consensus is that of all those subtractions, the pivotal one could be Douglas. If the Eagles can't replace his pass rush, their dominant defensive line isn't quite the force it has been.

And to think that before this offseason, the only thing the Jets and Redskins had in common was John Riggins. Now that half of New York's 2002 roster toils for the Redskins, we get to see if it's Herman Edwards or the players who are responsible for getting the Jets to the playoffs. New York does own Washington's draft this year, but here are three top-of-the-head questions about the Jets' offseason: New York probably made the right decisions from a long-term cap standpoint, but today would you rather have Coles or Curtis Conway? Thomas or Tom Nutten? Hall or Doug Brien? Throw in the botched matching of the Morton offer sheet, and there have been a few too many losses for the Jets to be anywhere but on the wrong side of the turnover ledger.

It hasn't been a big downer of an offseason in Indy, but Colts Fever isn't exactly spreading either. The most curious development was letting Peterson go without a fight in free agency, on the premise -- perhaps correct -- that he didn't make enough big plays to warrant big money. We liked the Jeff Saturday and Brad Scioli re-signings, but the rest of the Colts' moves have been ho-hummers. Unless you consider this year's ex-Ravens free-agent receiver (Brandon Stokely) to be far superior to last year's ex-Ravens free-agent receiver (Qadry Ismail).

We're sure the Browns have a talent acquisition plan for this offseason, but for the life of us, we still don't know what it is. Cleveland needed to go to work on its defense, which was shredded late in the year and in the playoffs, and it has done so. Dave Campo was named the new defensive coordinator and four significant defensive veterans weren't asked back: linebackers Holmes, Jamir Miller and Dwayne Rudd, as well as cornerback Corey Fuller. In their place, the Browns have signed only ex-Eagle Gardner. They're either going to go with their recent mid-level draft picks at linebacker, draft some more, or they're going to be active shoppers in the June 1 market. Cleveland also suffered two other notable losses in center Dave Wohlbaugh and long-snapper Ryan Kuehl.

In reality, there's a whole host of low-activity teams that are competing with the Ravens for this final spot, among them Tennessee, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Miami and Oakland. But we're giving the nod to the Ravens based on one criteria: So far they haven't addressed their starting quarterback position. Maybe it'll turn out to be a blessing in disguise that Jeff Blake got insulted by Baltimore's modest offer and ran off to Arizona. Maybe that prompts the Ravens to spend their No. 10 pick on a young passer who finally solves the team's revolving door at the game's most pivotal position. But until the Ravens give Chris Redman someone to compete with, and find some receivers, it's hard to get too excited over an offseason that has so far produced only two additions of note: Fuller and offensive tackle Orlando Brown.

[bulldog]

by is 1999-2001 standards, the loss of Davis is a big one. Based on what he did here in 2002 and the productivity he had, Davis in this offense is definitely replaceable.

820 yards rushing put Davis dead last in the NFC East in 2002, behind Barber, Staley and Smith.

If you aren't going to give Davis the ball to control the clock and eat up the inside yards, he is a waste of roster space.

The article considers that Regan Upshaw is here to replace Bruce Smith. My understanding is that he is here to augment him, by taking some of the blows on early run downs and allowing Smith to be more effective in the fourth quarter of games as a rushman.

That platoon, assuming both stay healty, could result in much more consistent play at the RDE spot in 2003.

Noble for a healthy Gardener is not a good trade. But if Gardener was guaranteed to go into camp healthy, he would still be here.

Noble and Wilkinson together seem well-matched. Noble is a disciplined gap plugger and Wilkinson is a guy who in the past when given the opportunity has shown he can pressure the quarterback up the middle.

There are worse tandems around, and if Wilkinson is in reasonable shape for 2003 it could be a very good pairing. Even more so with attention paid to DT in the draft in round 2 or 3.

The Bowen signing was a strange one to me as well. Because he had such limited exposure, interest in him seemingly came out of the blue.

The FO watched him in one playoff game and decided he was worth the gamble. We will see

He is a good special teamer, but of course if that's all he does he we grossly overpaid for his services.............

The special teams look like they could be a lot better in 2003. An asset for maybe the second time in the past 5 or 6 years? :laugh:

Morton is the best KR we have had in years. Hall is an upgrade on anyone we have had since Lohmiller left. Albright is a good snapper.

Stock needs to find a punter, but many teams go until July or August before a starter here emerges from the rookies, UDFAs and recycled vets

[Art]

I think it's funny we're being cited for losing value by starting Upshaw over Smith as if Smith is lost to us and not projected ON OUR BENCH. .

[IronMike]

This is a well-reasoned, balanced article. It gives us some credit for what we did in the free agnet signing period.

Many of the teams on the list of having done well are teams we will play this season: Buffalo, New England, Atlanta and Carolina. It will be difficult to have a great season record playing such a difficult schedule. As the article says: AFC East is rugged. We could improve significantly over last year, but still not see a marked improvement in our final record. With this schedule Wild Card will be very difficult. To make the playoffs we will have to win the division.

It is good to see an unbiased reporter say what all of us think: the Eagles are significantly weakened.

[redman]

A good litmus test for superficial analysis of our team is just to look and see if they judge the Noble, Canidate and Upshaw acquisitions based upon the names they replaced, and fail to mention what it would have cost to retain those players. I don't get upset by stuff that stupid.

[EagleSteve]

Originally posted by IronMike

It is good to see an unbiased reporter say what all of us think: the Eagles are significantly weakened.

I didn't quite read that from the article. True, they've sat on their butts for this part of free agency and lost some good players. They've also added a few good players. Losing Douglas will hurt the most, obviously.

I do agree it's nice to see an unbiased account of how the Eagles still remain the elite team in the NFC East despite losing some decent players. My concern is that they may have sacrificed their standing as one of the elite teams in the NFL. Only time will tell how much this off season has hurt/helped. Once again, don't count your green chickens until you've knocked them off their perch. Sort of like the Bucs did.

[bulldog]

sometimes it is much more difficult to improve from NFC title game loser to SB Champ than it is to go from 7-9 to 11-5

so much of what goes into winning the Super Bowl these days is rhythm and timing. Years ago, the best teams were apparent.

In the 1970's you knew the Steelers, Raiders, Cowboys, Vikings were going to be there in the playoffs. Other teams came and went.

But there were no New England Patriots-type winners.

Even as late as the mid-1990's the same teams were meeting each season in the playoffs. Dallas, San Francisco, Buffalo, etc...

Now it is wide open.

And the Eagles could find themselves in the position of treading water and not being able to close the gap, despite being agonizingly close the past two years.

In 2001 the Eagles scored 25 point but lost because the Rams put up 29 on them.

In 2002 the defense showed better in the playoffs but McNabb and the offense just fell apart with the SB 60 minutes away at home.

How do the Eagles get over the hump in 2003? Not by losing Douglas and their veteran depth in the secondary.

Moves for Sheppard and in this year's draft for a DE to replace Douglas may work out over time, but these moves won't get the Eagles further in the postseason RIGHT NOW.

[RabidFan]

When will media pundits stop using Davis as a big loss....he didn't fit into our system.....PERIOD. And if they took a look at the stats of Betts and Watson on games Davis missed and factored in Davis's propensity to fumble in the most inopportune time and places on field......its no loss.

WAKE UP MEDIA.....its just like why Gannon rules in quick step West Coast scheme but would not fair well in a vertical offense