NYr: Preparing the Battlefield (against Iran)..

[Baculus]

But once again, we are repeating history. High gas prices, everybody, (except the Dems) looking at alternatives. We start up some solar/wind projects, look at other alternatives, and then soon enough gas will go down and we'll all go back to sleep

I wish we would just get on with alternatives so we can flip the ME the bird

I agree Sarge - some long-term consistency would be nice.

[The Sisko]

Long thread, no time.

Did anyone mention the Israeli suprise? IE- Obama gets elected, so Israel bombs Iran before he takes office knowing that will be their last chance to do so with US support?

Interesting. I don't know that they'd be willing to risk such a move with Obama being an unknown. I'm certain he wouldn't pull the rug out from under them as that would be political suicide. However, he could certainly punish them in other ways, i.e. not shipping them weapons, denying intel, etc. Besides, if it resulted in an attack on U.S. soil or interests by the Iranians, and we get dragged into another protracted war we didn't want, over time public sentiment might turn against them. There's a lot of wildcards in that deck for them to try something like that.

[JMS]

Interesting. I don't know that they'd be willing to risk such a move with Obama being an unknown. I'm certain he wouldn't pull the rug out from under them as that would be political suicide. However, he could certainly punish them in other ways, i.e. not shipping them weapons, denying intel, etc. Besides, if it resulted in an attack on U.S. soil or interests by the Iranians, and we get dragged into another protracted war we didn't want, over time public sentiment might turn against them. There's a lot of wildcards in that deck for them to try something like that.

If Israel attacks Iran and Iran sends their 12 million man military into IRaq to kick our asses. I'm pretty sure it will be a re-ordering episode with our relationship with Israel. It will be a very large headline and could cost hundreds even thousands of Americans lives. America likes our leaders to decide when we are involved in a war, not another country making that decision for us. That Israel's relationship with the United States is so very very close would work against them with the public if they attack Iran.

We'll be pissed.

[Sarge]

If Israel attacks Iran and Iran sends their 12 million man military into IRaq to kick our asses. I'm pretty sure it will be a re-ordering episode with our relationship with Israel. It will be a very large headline and could cost hundreds even thousands of Americans lives. America likes our leaders to decide when we are involved in a war, not another country making that decision for us. That Israel's relationship with the United States is so very very close would work against them with the public if they attack Iran.

We'll be pissed.

They don't have a 12 million man army

[twa]

They don't have a 12 million man army

And I'm pretty sure If they couldn't kick Saddam's ass they ain't ready to play with the big boys....much less march on Iraq and the US forces.

Iran is already responsible for taking hundreds of US lives JMS, Where's your damn headlines?

[JMS]

They don't have a 12 million man army

Iran has the Largest Military in the world almost twice as many men under arms as China's 7 million... Iran has 12.3 million men under arms... There standing army and reserves are 900,000 against our 3 million. But Iran has 11.4 million paramilitary members.

I was suprised by that too, but evidently Iran has been gearing up for trouble with the west for years. I guess they have good reason to knowing we are spending 400 million a year to destabalize them..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_active_troops

[JMS]

And I'm pretty sure If they couldn't kick Saddam's ass they ain't ready to play with the big boys....much less march on Iraq and the US forces.

Iran is already responsible for taking hundreds of US lives JMS, Where's your damn headlines?

TWA, Iran trained Hezbollah which handed Israel their first defeat in their modern history December 2006. Israel was using US tactics when Hezbollah stiff armed them too. Air superiority, followed by artilery, followed by tanks and infrantry..... Israel had all of our advantages in 2006, Hezbollah still stiff armed them.

Iran's forces are two decades removed from their war of futility against Iraq. They aren't going to be as technologically advanced as us, But they know what they are doing and don't have fools in their officer corps like Saddam did.

Besides what makes you think the majority of shia Iraqi's would be on our side in a war against Iran? We've just spent the better part of six years destroying the ability for the Iraqi Sunni's ( former bathests, Saddam's boys) to project power(*).

(*) Petreus during the surge has actually started rebuilding the Sunni's capability even though they are responsible for killing the vast majority of Americans in the current Iraq war. We have 80,000 of them on the payroll today and we are arming them and training them.

[twa]

TWA, Iran trained Hezbollah which handed Israel their first defeat in their modern history December 2006. Israel was using US tactics when Hezbollah stiff armed them too. Air superiority, followed by artilery, followed by tanks and infrantry..... Israel had all of our advantages in 2006, Hezbollah still stiff armed them.

Iran's forces are two decades removed from their war of futility against Iraq. They aren't going to be as technologically advanced as us, But they know what they are doing and don't have fools in their officer corps like Saddam did.

Besides what makes you think the majority of shia Iraqi's would be on our side in a war against Iran? We've just spent the better part of six years destroying the ability for the Iraqi Sunni's ( former bathests, Saddam's boys) to project power(*).

(*) Petreus during the surge has actually started rebuilding the Sunni's capability even though they are responsible for killing the vast majority of Americans in the current Iraq war. We have 80,000 of them on the payroll today and we are arming them and training them.

You are confusing Hezz (in defense mode)using civilians to hide behind and a general war in far less favorable terrain...surely you don't believe Iran nor Hezz could mount serious projection of force? :laugh:

Israel went into foreign territory that had built up defenses for yrs,which is apples to oranges when compared to Iran attacking our troops.

Defense and offense are much different critters

Aside from them launching a surprise missile attack ,Iran would be the one getting a bloodbath .....guerrilla warfare (which they already are using on several fronts) is their only effective weapon.

They could of course expand it to here in the US,but they would pay dearly for that. :2cents:

As far as the Shia in Iraq,you might be surprised at how many resent Iran and it's interference in THEIR country.

Not to mention it was mainly Shia doing the fighting for Saddam against Iran.

[JMS]

You are confusing Hezz (in defense mode)using civilians to hide behind and a general war in far less favorable terrain...surely you don't believe Iran nor Hezz could mount serious projection of force? :laugh:

Hezbollah wasn't just hiding behind civilians. Hezbollah had dug in bunkers and were using anti tank and personell munitions in state of the art ways against Israel.

The Israeli tank is comparable to the A1 Abrams tank the US uses. Israel lost more tanks in the December 2006 war than America lost in our entire war against Iraq. That's an impressive feet. And remember that was ISrael's longest war in her modern history other than the war of independence in 48.

It's very likely that if we invaded Iran we would see similar defenses. Course we have B-52's and strategic bombers which Israel didn't have, so it's not clear if we would have the same problems Israel faced.

I'm just pointing out Israel which has crushed and embarressed every Arab army it's ever faced got their tukasus kicked in their last confrontation. The days are over when Israel can dismiss Hezbolah, and with those days are the time American military forces would look past Iran.

Israel went into foreign territory that had built up defenses for yrs,which is apples to oranges when compared to Iran attacking our troops.

Defense and offense are much different critters

A team of pretty smart guys figured out those defenses in Lebonon. And those smart guys are the same ones who likely prepared the boarder between Iran and Iraq. As for projection of power. 12 million man army which Iran has and we would be facing would be a significant projection I'd say.

Also if Iran/Hezbollah had an effective guidance system for their rockets they would have all the power projection necessary to bring Israel and America in Iraq to our knees. And remember, our highly accurate cruize missile guidence system which allows us to target windows in buildings from hundreds of miles away, is about 30 years old technology based on 8088 Intel technology. A reliable guidance system was posted on the internet three years ago by an Australian hobiest for missile technology.... How long could it be before Iran figures out something hobiests are figuring out in the west? If they haven't already done so.

A guidence system is all Iran would need to make their tens of thousands of missiles/rockets into an effective weapon of war rather than a terror weapon.

Aside from them launching a surprise missile attack ,Iran would be the one getting a bloodbath .....guerrilla warfare (which they already are using on several fronts) is their only effective weapon.

They could of course expand it to here in the US,but they would pay dearly for that. :2cents:

As far as the Shia in Iraq,you might be surprised at how many resent Iran and it's interference in THEIR country.

Not to mention it was mainly Shia doing the fighting for Saddam against Iran.

Guerrilla warfare is what has bogged us down in Iraq for the last six years. Guerrilla warfare is what lost us the military effert in Vietnam in the 60's and 70's. I don't know why you are dismissing asymetcial warfare, when it's done a hell of a job on our forces in the passed.

Iran has been a moderating force on the shia militia's like Saddr. They are funded, trained and equiped by Iran. If it is go time, not many people believe they would be on our side. Hell if Israel is on our side, I don't know of anybody in the ME who would commit forces to assist us.

[The Sisko]

The wildcard for Iran is whether their guys will actually fight. Not only was Hezbollah well equipped but more importantly, they were/are highly motivated and disciplined. However, if Iran is expecting the same type of performance out of the millions of (I'm admittedly making an assumption here) conscripts yanked out of villages and farms I'd say they're going to be dissapointed.

Most likely there's probably only a small subset of that 12 or so million man/woman army (yes, they do have women's brigades of some type) that is willing and able to fight effectively. Most of Iran's population really does hate the theocracy and hence, it would probably be another Iraq in terms of rolling over their military and then facing a mostly grateful populace interspersed with a hardened, determined group of guerilla fighters.

Of course oil supplies would probaby get pinched a bit for a few weeks but they'd eventually be restored. Even so, I think for us Iran is another "tar baby" that we simply can't afford. In short, bombs, ammo, dead civilians and such cost $$$ and we're broke. A military victory at the cost of a ruined economy is no victory in my book.

[Sarge]

Iran has the Largest Military in the world almost twice as many men under arms as China's 7 million... Iran has 12.3 million men under arms... There standing army and reserves are 900,000 against our 3 million. But Iran has 11.4 million paramilitary members.

I was suprised by that too, but evidently Iran has been gearing up for trouble with the west for years. I guess they have good reason to knowing we are spending 400 million a year to destabalize them..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_active_troops

PLease stop using ****apedia as a source. The people on that site know as much about the miltary as they do about ****ing

THe CIA factbook list 17.5 million fit for military duty. Mind you, we have around one hundred fifty million fit for duty.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ir.html#Military

And most of their military is made up of conscripts, same as the vaunted Iraqi military the media so feared during Desert Storm

At the first sign of an airstrike or big BOOMS!!!!! they'll run like rabbits.

I ain't scerrrrd

[twa]

JMS, who has proposed invading Iran?

You put forth the idea of them attacking us in Iraq.

Quote JMS

"If Israel attacks Iran and Iran sends their 12 million man military into IRaq to kick our asses. "

Aside from limited missions by special forces there would be no need for a US forces invasion....nor any sense in it.

Seizing some of the platforms and islands in the Gulf to protect shipping is about the only required ground forces,other than special ops.