Did Saunders Arrival Upset The Apple Cart?

[desertfox59]

It's a serious oversimplification to suggest that the winning streak at the end of last year was due to Gibbs' simply deciding to run the ball more. That was part of it, yes ... ... Let's not reduce the major swings in entire seasons to nebulous claims like "well, they finally decided to start running the ball."

Seriously.

Not a nebulous oversimplification. A fact.

First 11 games we averaged 26.8 attempts/game (not counting QB rushes/scrambles)

Six in a row Streak we averaged 34.5 attempts/game (not counting QB rushes/scrambles)

We called on average 7 more rushing plays per game during the streak.

Were there other factors...sure...But this was the biggest trackable change on offense.

[fish]

First off - Great post. Well thought out and well written.

Next - I agree.

But that ship has sailed and we are "stuck" with the move to Saunders. It will take awhile for this offense to stick but I think it will and we will be hitting all cylinders come DEC.

Bottomline - new offense, injured defense = slow start.

It also mandates a heavier load on the coaches. I'll take that scenario.

[CapitalDefense]

If we lose and fall to 0-2, that apple cart will be set on fire.

[Mister Happy]

Gibbs offense was bad without Portis, too, so don't judge Saunders based on last game.

[roanoker]

Too much over analyzing if you ask me. Saunders influence will be beneficial to the our offense. You just got to give it time, Rome wasn't built in a day!!!

Good post, good points but I agree it seems to over analyze. Geez, its only been one week. One week's worth of gametime performance to come up with a sound analysis seems premature... :2cents:

[Mr_ Skinshead]

Apple cart? I never heard that before in my life. Where the hell did you get that analagy from an Andy Griffith episode?

I think he meant to say "overturn the s**t house"!

[Om]

Not a nebulous oversimplification. A fact.

First 11 games we averaged 26.8 attempts/game (not counting QB rushes/scrambles)

Six in a row Streak we averaged 34.5 attempts/game (not counting QB rushes/scrambles)

We called on average 7 more rushing plays per game during the streak.

Were there other factors...sure...But this was the biggest trackable change on offense.

Point is, you can't assume a cause and effect relationship, which is what it sounded like you were doing. Did the runs-per-game create all those "other factors" you recognize as having existed, or did all those other factors create the circumstances that led to the increased runs-per-game? Or was it some combination of those and possibly additional factors? And, is it possible some of those other factors may not in fact be "trackable" via statistics?

Not too subtle a point, I hope, given the sophisticated nature of the football knowledge in this community.

[desertfox59]

Point is, you can't assume a cause and effect relationship, which is what it sounded like you were doing. Did the runs-per-game create all those "other factors" you recognize as having existed, or did all those other factors create the circumstances that led to the increased runs-per-game? Or was it some combination of those and possibly additional factors? And, is it possible some of those other factors may not in fact be "trackable" via statistics?

Not too subtle a point, I hope, given the sophisticated nature of the football knowledge in this community.

Great post. :applause:

in answer to your questions in order:

1. only god knows.

2. probably.

3. yes. There are lies. There are damn lies. And then there are statistics.

We stumbled upon the prevalent notion of modern Historical analysis that is:

There is no singular objective truth (or if it exists, it is only obtainable by God and not by man because of flaws in our senses). In a sense the idea is troublesome because it means that truth only exists in the abstract unattainable notions of individual minds.

The merging of history, philosophy, religion, science and yes even mathematics into the fallibility of the ideas about singular objective truth will and is a hard pill for some modern intellectuals to swallow.

Those new to the idea often find it difficult to not dismiss any cause and effect analysis. In a sense these people can't get past the imperfections present in their understanding of truth and it's fallibilities.

Even knowing that we will never attain it, should we not still attempt to grasp the truth? I think we should. I think we should recognize the flaws in our human analysis and accept them. then we should use tools like statistics and cause effect analysis to make our points to represent our version of truth knowing that it is not perfect.

That said....

I can assume a cause and effect relationship with Gibbs play calling and the results. And I can also assume that it only has a certain quality of correctness.

is this sophistry? Some modern intellectuals will fight to the bitter end saying that it is...

but the truth is...;)

only God knows.

:helmet:

[Om]

only God knows

Of course, some modern intellectuals might choose at this juncture to raise the question of whether it's actually insight or audacity that prompts man to confidently ascribe both form and motivation to a concept as grand as "God" ... but that would take this in a WHOLE other direction.

So it's a good thing we're just humble football fans.

[desertfox59]

Of course, some modern intellectuals might choose at this juncture to raise the question of whether it's actually insight or audacity that prompts man to confidently ascribe both form and motivation to a concept as grand as "God" ... but that would take this in a WHOLE other direction.

So it's a good thing we're just humble football fans.

You know I seriously thought about putting a qualifier after every reference to God like this: (if he/she exists), but I personally relish in the audacious and insightful notion of His existance.

to clarify my points in light of God's existance or non existance, I will say this

if God doesn't exist then the truth is not obtainable.

what amazes me is that most modern intelectualls will believe in a singular objective truth before they will believe in god. They personafy faith in truth in ways, that if they realized they were doing it, would make them stop. Faith is difficult for them intellectually because they have so much of it without realizing they have it. :laugh:

Thank god for the simple passion of football.

[mangan]

I think it will take a full season....or at least 3/4 of it.......too much to learn......but it will pay off in the end........

[DWARF-HOG]

the Redskins drive to the playoffs last year was based on making a firm decision (after a number of tough losses) to run the football and be a more physical football team. the Redskins team that went through the 2-6 slump between the 3-0 start and 5-0 finish gave up on the running game way too early in contests conceding the time of possession battle and then got into trouble with negative plays (fumbles, sacks, INTs) which helped teams like KC and the Raiders win games that otherwise could have gone the Redskins' way. ....

Dude,

Post is too long. Bottomline "if it was not broke, don't fix it".

Problem is/was not the offense, but who runs it. BRUNELL.

:dallasuck :dallasuck :dallasuck :dallasuck

"For those who are about to die, we salute you."

[hail2skins]

Bump. Three offensive points at Dallas, three offensive points at New York, three with 9 minutes to go at Philly.

Nice job Al.

[NoDQForums]

I think Gibbs should of stopped after he acquired the receivers. Al has been a disapointment thus far this year for all he is worth.

[CustomApparelDirect]

IMHO: No! It was BRUNELL's arrival which did!!! And, WHY aren't Campbell, Duckett, and ANYBODY to replace 'Big Cushion' Rogers @ CB, in the game?!?

[SkinsFan13]

i hate saunders, he doesnt belong here and neither do his constant behind the line plays. I dont care if brunell cant throw it downfield there are other options. Constant 3rd and longs with a hand off or a pitch or screen DOES NOT F***ING WORK.

[IHOPSkins]

It sure looks like it may have been a good idea to bring in the new Saunders slowly giving everyone a chance to see what will and will not work. I guess we found out the hard way at home against the lowly Vikings.

This is where I am at

Instead of going "Whole Hog".....go increamental

(Maybe we where planning an adjustment season to convert faster?)

My Opinion...

Saunders plans for Portis being Healthy...Oooops

Saunders does not Motivate like Gibbs

Converting a "Gut and Power" O-line to finesse takes time

[IHOPSkins]

I hear you, but I worry that in a few weeks, it may be too late if we continue to lose games. This year was supposed to be a legit SB run, not a rebuilding year. Bulldog's point that the new offense might have set us back a season is thought-provoking at the very least.

For the 5 year Gibbs contract....

I saw a SB run in year 4 and 5

I also saw us having a 50/50 shot at the division This Year

[Dr. D]

With Saunders we are worse.

thats all there is to it.

too bad quite sad...your momma.

looks like we ahve draft picks we cannot trust to be on the field.

Thanx front office.

Anyone on this organization actually doing anything positive?

[SkinsFTW]

I'm not drawing up plays but I think Saunders chooses to not attack defenses weaknesses.

Evidence of this is all those teams we have played who are KNOWN as weak against interior runs but also are speedy defenses who will chase you down outside. What do we do week in and week out? Run outside and throw quick short passes to the same areas of the field against them.

But also Brunell sucks. Last years offense even with Brunell in there would probably be better at this point but Brunell is done and this offense and him together make it unworkable IMO. 3 points in 3 games says more than anything else. If we score 20 in those games we likely win all 3 and are 6-3 instead of 3-6.