How the Redskins will beat the Seahawks: The one stat that never lies!

[GSF]

In part 1 of my series on stats, and the Skins/Hawks game, we talked about how over-rated the Seahawks run defense is b/c of their schedule, and their ability to jump out to quick leads against terrible teams.

In this thread, I want to note exactly how the Redskins have gone on this run, and how it will continue against the Seachickens.

There is 1 stat that almost never lies when it comes to playoff football in the NFL. That stat is turnovers. The team that turns the ball over more loses, almost every time. The reason for that is that in playoff games, both teams are good, the competition is usually tight, and turnovers are the difference in the game.

Remember early in the season, when more panicy extremers were complaining about Williams' defense not creating turnovers? Remember when the Skins were somehthing like -10 in the turnover ratio, and somehow actually had a decent record?

Well take a look at how the Skins have done with turnovers during "the streak". This is pretty impressive. Since the Dallas game, the Skins are +10 in the turnover ratio, with 3 give aways and 13 take aways. Since the Stl game the Skins have 6 give aways to 19 take aways, and are +13 in turnover ratio for 6 games. That means they are averaging over +3 in turnover ratio per game. An amazing stat.

What even more impressive is that the turnovers Williams' defense creates seem to always be exactly when we need them. They create turnovers early in games to take quick leads (it seems like the LBs have an early pic in every game), and they create turnovers late to end games.

Things start to really add up when you think about earlier in the season, when Williams would say over and over how important it was to create turnovers. Then you think about Gibbs sitting Ramsey, the 2003 poster boy for turnovers, in favor of "Mr. I''ve got no arm but I don't turn it over" Brunell.

Gibbs and Willians decided early on, We're going to play defense, run the ball, and take the ball away, and we're going to win a lot of games, and it has worked.

I really don't think this game is going to be any different. As Kleese mentioned in his thread, the Seahawks are under big pressure here to get a win. In seven seasons Holmgen has yet to win a playoff game, and the Seahawks haven't won a playoff game since all the way back in 1984 when we were wearing vans sneakers and going to Van Halen concerts. Now that's pressure. On top of that, the Seahawks starters have barely played football for 3 weeks b/c of their bye and playing the back ups in their last game. So now you've got high pressure mixed with a little rust.

Just like in their last 6 games, the Redskins defense will take the ball away early and give the Skins the lead. Gibbs will pound Portis, and the Skins will slow down Alexander enough for Holmgren to abandon the run. Seattle will put up some yards on the Skins throwing the ball, but late in the game Phillip Daniels will get his big mit on a Hasselbeck pass, and it will be another pic for a TD to close out the Hawks.

Skins win!

20 - 13

[KareemOfWheat]

I like your analysis and I agree that turnovers will play the biggest role in the game and, with our defense, we have that as an advantage...I just started reading this board last night but with all this good analysis, I'm really starting to trust Gibbs and think we have a good shot in this one...the only thing I'm worried about is injuries which we have no control over...

[bluengreen]

In part 1 of my series on stats, and the Skins/Hawks game, we talked about how over-rated the Seahawks run defense is b/c of their schedule, and their ability to jump out to quick leads against terrible teams.

In this thread, I want to note exactly how the Redskins have gone on this run, and how it will continue against the Seachickens.

There is 1 stat that almost never lies when it comes to playoff football in the NFL. That stat is turnovers. The team that turns the ball over more loses, almost every time. The reason for that is that in playoff games, both teams are good, the competition is usually tight, and turnovers are the difference in the game.

Remember early in the season, when more panicy extremers were complaining about Williams' defense not creating turnovers? Remember when the Skins were somehthing like -10 in the turnover ratio, and somehow actually had a decent record?

Well take a look at how the Skins have done with turnovers during "the streak". This is pretty impressive. Since the Dallas game, the Skins are +10 in the turnover ratio, with 3 give aways and 13 take aways. Since the Stl game the Skins have 6 give aways to 19 take aways, and are +13 in turnover ratio for 6 games. That means they are averaging over +3 in turnover ratio per game. An amazing stat.

What even more impressive is that the turnovers Williams' defense creates seem to always be exactly when we need them. They create turnovers early in games to take quick leads (it seems like the LBs have an early pic in every game), and they create turnovers late to end games.

Things start to really add up when you think about earlier in the season, when Williams would say over and over how important it was to create turnovers. Then you think about Gibbs sitting Ramsey, the 2003 poster boy for turnovers, in favor of "Mr. I''ve got no arm but I don't turn it over" Brunell.

Gibbs and Willians decided early on, We're going to play defense, run the ball, and take the ball away, and we're going to win a lot of games, and it has worked.

I really don't think this game is going to be any different. As Kleese mentioned in his thread, the Seahawks are under big pressure here to get a win. In seven seasons Holmgen has yet to win a playoff game, and the Seahawks haven't won a playoff game since all the way back in 1984 when we were wearing vans sneakers and going to Van Halen concerts. Now that's pressure. On top of that, the Seahawks starters have barely played football for 3 weeks b/c of their bye and playing the back ups in their last game. So now you've got high pressure mixed with a little rust.

Just like in their last 6 games, the Redskins defense will take the ball away early and give the Skins the lead. Gibbs will pound Portis, and the Skins will slow down Alexander enough for Holmgren to abandon the run. Seattle will put up some yards on the Skins throwing the ball, but late in the game Phillip Daniels will get his big mit on a Hasselbeck pass, and it will be another pic for a TD to close out the Hawks.

Skins win!

20 - 13

This is the most intelligent analysis of the game I've read on this board yet, by a long shot. Yes, the key to beating up will be to get an early lead, making Holmgren think he needs to abandon the run. Then you can go after Hass and destroy him. That's basically what you did to us in the first game, and also how Jax beat us in week one.

BUT

What even more impressive is that the turnovers Williams' defense creates seem to always be exactly when we need them.

and

Just like in their last 6 games, the Redskins defense will take the ball away early and give the Skins the lead.

those aren't repeatable skills.

One of the key ways you beat us the first game -- Brunell converting on 3rd and long nine times on the way to converting 13 of 18 third downs -- isn't really repeatable either.

So while I think your basic premise is right on the bullseye, I think you'll want to come up with a sounder way of bringing it about.

[MLiverpool]

Another thought to add, Shawn Springs coming off a bye That's what he said(heard via ESPN). Springs, Rogers, Harris, Clark, Taylor.. not in that order. The defense. It will be the key to stopping them. Portis will be the key to scoring. I hope he's healthy. I'm just very happy the Skins are in the playoffs.

[bluengreen]

BTW, did you know that our first game was an anomoly in that we actually beat you in the turnover department: we didn't turn it over at all, while you had an interception. To me, that just means that there were so few that they were a null factor.

Besides the 13 of 18 3rd down conversion, the most important stat of the first game was time of possession. You had the ball 22 minutes of the first half, which greatly contributed to you building up a lead. The final stats were 36 min to 24 in your favor.

[dsciambi]

I dreamt that the Skins won 120-10...that takes a lot of turnovers, I'd think? :laugh:

[[S.S.F. | Nero]]

BOTTOM LINE.

Redskins O was pass-oriented first half of year. D was shaky.

Redskins D is now borderline excellent. O is run-oriented but sluggish as of late.

Redskins have faced PHI and TAM the last two games.....two very talented defenses that are predicated on stopping the run.

Seattle however will not stop Portis. Washington will stop Alexander. Washington will cause turnovers and win the game.

[Mister Happy]

Our defense was struggling to get turnovers and QB pressure when we held Seattle to 17 points the last time. Our D is playing a lot better now. It's quite possible to hold them to 17 points this time too.

Us, Jacksonville and Dallas are the only teams to hold them to 17 or under. It's no coincidence that those are the only good defenses they played. Very interesting that they average just over 14 points against good defenses.

[jayray78]

the analysis is good. i must congratulate you on the well thought out comments but i do not think seahawks resting their starters mean they will be rusty afterall they are professionals. and even if they are rusty the skins should be tired but again these are professionals we are talking about.:gaintsuck . i think the skins win because we had a tougher schedule than the seachickens. the NY ants lost because they were so confident in their record but failed to see like dallas, they had a weak schedule while the skins had a strong schedule.

another stat that hardly lies is when you are hot in december, you are superbowl bound. see you in detroit against the patriots or the steelers.:gaintsuck

[Trufant23]

It's a shame Hasselbeck has played basically flawless the past 6 games or so..

It's also a shame that Alexander doesn't turn the ball over..

It's also a shame we don't drop passes anymore.

Our offense will show up, if our defense plays decent - we win.

[KillaCam21]

It's a shame Hasselbeck has played basically flawless the past 6 games or so..

It's also a shame that Alexander doesn't turn the ball over..

It's also a shame we don't drop passes anymore.

Our offense will show up, if our defense plays decent - we win.

Shaun Alexander fumbled five times this year. He didn't lose any of those fumbles, but then again there is that pesky law of averages...

You don't drop passes anymore? that remains to be seen. I think your receivers will be pretty scared when they play the Skins considering that Engram missed six weeks due to injury after playing the Skins and JAckson didn't come back for 12 weeks after playing the skins in week four. Those guys are going to be spitting their pants on Saturday.

[Trufant23]

Shaun Alexander fumbled five times this year. He didn't lose any of those fumbles, but then again there is that pesky law of averages...

You don't drop passes anymore? that remains to be seen. I think your receivers will be pretty scared when they play the Skins considering that Engram missed six weeks due to injury after playing the Skins and JAckson didn't come back for 12 weeks after playing the skins in week four. Those guys are going to be spitting their pants on Saturday.

Um wow..

You do realize they went into that game hurt right? (At least Jackson did, Engram was hurt early in the game but still played great).. The Redskins secondary had nothing to do with it..

And if I recall both receivers had an okay game.. despite being injured

Engram 9 rec., 106 yards

Jackson 7 rec., 55 yards, TD

As for drops.. what remains to be seen? In 16 games this year .. lets look at the numbers..

NFL - Passes Dropped

Rank Team Passes Dropped

7 Was 30

26 Sea 18

Santana Moss had 8 drops, or about half of what all our receivers had - all year.

But you can keep on living in the past .. (psssst.. Hasselbeck also said we want the ball and we're gonna score, and we havent won a playoff game in 22 years.. I figured I'd mention those so you could save the "witty" reply you were ready to break out)

[bluengreen]

You do realize they went into that game hurt right? The Redskins secondary had nothing to do with it..

I'm afraid I have to contradict you slightly. D-Jack's knee was hurt before the game, but Engram's ribs were cracked on one of the first plays of the game.

Otherwise great post. I remember before last game Skins fans bragging that our receivers would be nervous playing against their secondary, but as those stats show it didn't seem to slow them down.

[Trufant23]

I'm afraid I have to contradict you slightly. D-Jack's knee was hurt before the game, but Engram's ribs were cracked on one of the first plays of the game.

Otherwise great post. I remember before last game Skins fans bragging that our receivers would be nervous playing against their secondary, but as those stats show it didn't seem to slow them down.

My fault.. I meant to say Jackson was hurt prior not both..

Nice catch fellow Hawk fan

[Mr. Nostril]

I'm wearing a pair of vans right now. Does that mean the Seahawks will win? I'll take them off if you think it will help the skins. But I have to put them back on when I leave the house.

[Trufant23]

I'm wearing a pair of vans right now. Does that mean the Seahawks will win? I'll take them off if you think it will help the skins. But I have to put them back on when I leave the house.

I thought Joe Gibbs was an Airwalk guy myself...

[SkinsFTW]

Our offense will show up, if our defense plays decent - we win.

I think Alexander gets stuffed. Its going to be on Hasslebeck to win the game through the air. He doesn't fumble a lot so that is one + for you guys and your OL is one of the best in the game so we will probably have to blitz more.

Hopefully ST or Rogers don't bite on play action but your teams secondary is much more suspect. That rookie LB seems to be damned good though. Some were saying that he should have gotten the DROY over Merriman.

I think your team will be more likely to turn the ball over early because they haven't played in a few weeks. I also think our team may get off to a lead again this week because of that and the fact that the Seahawks aren't used to playing the physical kind of football this team wins with week after week.

:point2sky

[GSF]

This is the most intelligent analysis of the game I've read on this board yet, by a long shot. Yes, the key to beating up will be to get an early lead, making Holmgren think he needs to abandon the run. Then you can go after Hass and destroy him. That's basically what you did to us in the first game, and also how Jax beat us in week one.

BUT

and

those aren't repeatable skills.

One of the key ways you beat us the first game -- Brunell converting on 3rd and long nine times on the way to converting 13 of 18 third downs -- isn't really repeatable either.

So while I think your basic premise is right on the bullseye, I think you'll want to come up with a sounder way of bringing it about.

It's a shame Hasselbeck has played basically flawless the past 6 games or so..

It's also a shame that Alexander doesn't turn the ball over..

It's also a shame we don't drop passes anymore.

Our offense will show up, if our defense plays decent - we win.

Thank you both for your replies, and especially your comments BlueGreen.

Unfortunately, the point you both miss is that the Skins haven't had teams sloppily turning the ball over to them. The Skins have been taking the ball away over and over, and at crucial junctures of the game.

I understand your view, Blue Green, about that not being a repeatable skill, but in fact, for some defenses it is. This skill has been so repeatable for the Skins in the last six games, that it has enabled them to beat teams that out-performed them on offense on several occaisions. If you go back and look at the Skins winning streak, every game except of the Giants game, either opened up, or closed out the game with Redskins take aways.

Remember the New England Defenses of their Superbowl teams? Take away after take away, for huge plays at crucial times. Nobody thought NE had a chance against the Rams, but the defense and special teams just took over the game. The Skins are playing the same kind of ball. That will be the difference in what should be a great game.

[redskins55]

Great analysis...

THe 2 most importnant things in this game that will ensure a win for the Skins are..

1. A fast start being aggressive on offense and defense establishing a lead.

2. Converting on 3rd downs and moving the chains throughout the game to keep the seattle offense off of the field.

Those two things will ensure a win and though everyone thinks its going to be close it defiently doesnt have to be since the Redskins are battle tested and the seahawks may be rusty form weeks of coasting..

Go Skins!

Go Skins