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Playoff Scenario Question


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Just wondering... has TB clinched at least a wildcard spot? I know if they win the wildcards are two of either us, carolina, or dallas. But if they lose and carolina wins, is there anyway they still dont get the wildcard?

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']IONTOP' date='

I was going to try but I'm not sure what happens if the Giants lose and they end up tied with the Bucs and/or Cowboys. That is why I left it at what I wrote.[/quote']

Yeah they've got the x next to their standings, so regardless of what happens next week you guys will have something to watch come wildcard weekend. With that being said, I assumed that because the Bucs haven't clinched a spot yet, that if everything went haywire for them they would miss out, and since there are only 4 teams fighting for 3 spots, Dallas would have to get in and the bucs would be left out... and about staying on topic....

Did anyone watch the Heat Laker game? :D

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It is a freaken mess between the Bucs, Panthers, and Cowboys.

All I know is all we have to do is win and we are in.

What I do know is, the Cowboys have the tie breaker over the Panthers, the Panthers have the tie-breaker over the Bucs, but I do not know who has the tie breaker between the Cowboys and Bucs.

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If we and Dallas both win and Carolina loses. I think that in a 3 way tie for the last two wildcard spots, they take the top 2 conference records. Which would be use and Dallas. I'm probably wrong because I'm pretty sure that the 5 teams have already clinched and it's down to us and Dallas for the last spot.

Doesn't matter anyway, Carolina will win.

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']Tampa Bay wins the division if they both lose. That much I do know. And the Cowboys would make the playoffs if they win with Carolina being out.

Lets see if I can break this down...

If Tampa loses and:

Carolina loses - Tampa wins division

Carolina wins Dallas Wins - Carolina wins division, Dallas gets in Via Strength of Schedule

If Tampa wins - no matter what else happens, tampa wins division.

If Giants win- Giant win NFC East

If Giants lose and-

Redskins lose - Giants win NFC East

Redskins Win Tampa loses Carolina wins - Giants get wildcard #2 Dallas out Carolina wins NFC South

Redskins Win Tampa Loses Carolina Loses - Giants get wildcard #1 Tampa wins NFC South Dallas gets Wildcard #2 due to SOS over carolina (more than 2 teams Skins boys, cats)

Cowboys lose - Will have an extra month to snort cocaine :laugh:

Carolina Wins and:

Tampa loses - NFC South Champion

Tampa wins Redskins lose Dallas loses - #1 wildcard with a 10-6 vs Skins 9-7 and cowboys 9-7

Anything else just ask, I'll do my best

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Only the Giants, Bears, and Seahawks have clinched. There is the NFC East division title and the NFC South to be decided as well as two wildcard spots. Let's assume the Giants win and they win the division which will make this easier.

The Redskins win and they get one spot. TB wins and they get their division. Carolina wins and they are in.

If the Redskins lose and Cowboys win, the Cowboys are in.

If the Redskins lose and the Cowboys lose, the Skins are in.

If the Panthers lose and the Cowboys and Redskins win, they are both in.

If the Bucs lose, Panthers, Skins, and Cowboys win, I believe the Bucs are out.

If the Giants lose and the Skins win, the Skins win the NFC East and I think everything else is the same only it becomes much easier because the Giants already have a wildcard spot. It would be down to the Bucs and Panthers for the division and the Cowboys if one of them loses with the last wildcard spot.

And if Woody would have gone to the police, none of this would ever have happened.

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Well, it gets kinda complicated. In order for the Bucs to be eliminated from the playoffs the following has to happen:

1. Giants lose and are a wild card

2. Wash wins get division title

3. Dallas wins

4. Bucs lose

5. Panthers win

6. 1st wild card breaker is between Bucs/Giants for 5 spot(If Giants win, then)

7. 2nd wild card breaker is between Bucs/Boys

I guessing that the 2 wild card breakers are going to come down to either common games played or strength of victory. I'm also guessing the Bucs would lose both seeing how they haven't showed the Bucs as locking up a playoff spot.

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Tampa doesn't make it if:

Washington Wins

NY Giants lose

Carolina wins

Tampa Bay loses

Dallas wins

It would then go:

3. Carolina 11-5

4. Washington 10-6

5. NY Giants 10-6 (Division Record over Dallas, Strength of Schedule vs Tampa)

6. Dallas 10-6 (Strength of Victory/Schedule over Tampa)

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The fight for the #5 seed between Tampa and New York will be very interesting to watch if the above scenario actually plays out. It could literally come down a couple "meaningless games," if you're interested in reading:

First off, the N.Y. Giants are already in the playoffs since they have over Dallas in all tiebraking scenarios. With 3 spots up for grabs and 4 teams in the running, New York is in.

Now, the fun begins,

If Carolina, Dallas, Washington all win while New York, Dallas, and Tampa Bay lose, you have...

1. Seattle

2. Chicago

3. Carolina

4. Washington

Dallas, New York, and Tampa are all battling for the 5 and 6 spots, with 10-6 conference records and 8-4 division records. For the 5 spot, New York and Tampa face off...

Third tiebraker is common games (New Orleans, Washington, Minnesota, San Francisco)

NYG 3-2 vs. Tampa Bay 3-2

So, the tiebraker is strength of victory, where Tampa and New York both have SOVs of 0.447.

NYG wins: Arizona, New Orleans, St. Louis, Denver, Washington, San Francisco, Dallas, Philadelphia 2x, Kansas City

Tampa Bay wins: Minnesota, Buffalo, Green Bay, Detroit, Miami, Washington, Atlanta 2x, New Orleans, Carolina

The New Orleans and Washington games cancel, leaving us with:

NYG: Arizona, St. Louis, Denver, San Francisco, Dallas, Kansas City, Philadelphia 2x

Tampa: Minnesota, Buffalo, Green Bay, Detroit, Miami, Atlanta 2x, Carolina

Still there?

If the above scenario takes place, then St. Louis loses, Dallas wins, Philadelphia loses, Atlanta loses, and Carolina wins. So, that leaves us with...

NYG: Arizona, Denver, San Francisco, Kansas City, and a 1-3 record toward SOV.

Tampa Bay: Minnesota, Buffalo, Green Bay, Detroit, Miami, and a 1-2 record toward SOV.

And...if Tampa and the Giants have the same strength of victory? The next tiebraker is strength of schedule, where New York has a decided advantage (.511 to .462)

So, Tampa could overtake the Giants for the 5th spot, in which case the Giants would be the #6 seed over Dallas.

But, if the Giants take the 5th spot, Tampa will go up against Dallas for the #6 spot...

Third tiebraker: common games (Washington, Carolina, Detroit, San Francisco)

Dallas 4-2 vs. Tampa 4-2

Again, strength of victory comes into play, where Dallas has a huge advantage (.533 to .462)

So, what does it all mean?

1. Tampa will either get the 5th spot or no spot at all.

2. If you thought Houston-San Francisco was simply a Reggie Bush Bowl, you could be wrong. It could very well decide who is going to the playoffs from the NFC.

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