Anselmheifer

Josh Allen is awesome. That’s not much of an insult. I’d take Sweat over Bosa for sure. Bosa is injury prone. ACL in HS. Missed almost all of last year with a soft tissue injury. Now he’s out with a hamstring. I’d take Sweat over Burns. He’s longer, much better against the run and already has a bull rush and can convert speed to power. Sweat is a converted TE. He’s only been playing DE for a short while and is already super productive. I think his floor is a 10 sack a year guy that is also good against the run. That’s a steal at pick 26. Sweat’s ceiling is tantalizing. All of that speed and length and power. I’m not even going to hypothesize about his best case scenario, it it’s better than we’ve had in DC in my adult lifetime.

Thanks for posting that, SIP. It was a decent listen. I never make too much of a player killing it in training camp or OTA's, but generally speaking, it IS very bad when a player doesn't look good. Also, since Jimmy Moreland had such a great week, someone posted his RAS score, etc in the appropriate welcome thread. I couldn't help but notice that Sweat's 10 yard split was significantly faster at 1.5 seconds vs. 1.56. Also, I always like to see how a player does against more elite competition. Just watched Sweat vs. Alabama. He wasn't dominant but was impactful. Multiple pressures. Very good against the run as well. Versatile. Played at both end spots and also had success with stunts and twists up the middle. I don't see how Montez winds up with less than 8 sacks this year.

It doesn’t show up as much as you might expect, because he’s a little less flexible than a guy like burns, but his get off is crazy and he definitely has plays where he just blows by the tackle. I think his get off does look like a guy that runs a 4.4 with a 1.5 second ten yard split. He just also has a lot of power and bull rushes more than a player like Burns. A guy that can plant Dalton Risner and Tytus Howard on their butt is going to have some success in the league with his power rush.

Maybe so. But, Wirfs’ game seems power based and I hate to see those guys get out muscled. Perhaps it should just make me feel better about Sweat’s power game. I’m starting to think that as Kerrigan wears, we could just play Sweat at LDE and draft another speed rusher for the RDE spot. Looking at tape, it looks like Sweat often played LDE in college anyway, so he must be comfortable there.

I just watched this video. Wirfs is a stud and will likely be a top 15 pick next year. As powerful as Wirfs is, this video made me feel even better about Sweat next year. At no point did Sweat seem overwhelmed. In fact, if I was drafting Wirfs, this video might give me a little pause. There were multiple instances where it looked like Sweat was overpowering Wirfs and driving him back, or converting speed to power. If Sweat plays like that all year this year, he is going to have 8-10 sacks and will also be borderline dominant against the run.

I meant on defense, but, you are correct. I actually disagree with this. Sweat doesn’t have a lot of refined hand moves and counters, but he is going to overwhelm at times with his length and speed and power. He put Tytus Howard on his butt in the Senior Bowl, and did the same thing to Dalton’s Risner. When you are pancaking high draft picks with power and are also super long and run a 1.5 second 10 yard split and a 4.41 fourty, you’re a lot harder to defend than someone who doesn’t yet have much power, like Brian Burns. I think Sweat collects at least 8 sacks this year and looks good doing it.

I was just lamenting our lack of team speed and it occurred to me that Montez Sweat is our fastest defender other than Fabian Moreau. Sweat would be the second fastest player in our secondary...that’s crazy.

They have Dee Ford and Jadaveon Clowney as non-force players. I really want to know how heavily which attributes are weighted. Edit: Upon review, it looks like Sweat's 10 yard split was 1.50. Paul Richardson and Adrian Peterson both ran a 1.53. Sick. Also, Ben Banogu ran a 1.47. that's crazy.

It's a worthwhile read. Tells us what we already know about drafting, "non-force" passrushers...cough cough Ryan Anderson cough cough Trent Murphy cough cough. Since he doesn't publish the formula, it does strain credulity a little bit. It would be nice to plug in specific players to see how the model holds up for historical players, or how it projects more recent prospects.

Yes. Scharping made Burns look like a late round pick. I just posted this in another thread: "Looks like NFL.com listed Montez Sweat's 10 yard split as 1.50 flat. Not sure if it's true. I've also seen it listed as 1.55 and 1.54 http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001021021/article/2019-nfl-scouting-combine-twelve-numbers-that-matter-most At 6-5 3/4 and 260 pounds, Montez Sweat's first 10-yard split on the 40-yard dash was 1.50 seconds. This helped him earn a 4.41-second 40 time, which is the fastest by a defensive lineman since 2003. The average 10-yard split for a Pro Bowl edge rusher since 2003? 1.67 seconds. The Mississippi State product's three-cone result of 7.0 seconds also hit a predictive benchmark (7.0 or lower) that flags for above-average and elite NFL production." Anyone know how to best confirm the official number? I would assume NFL.com would get the number right. Maybe it was adjusted at a later date?

Looks may be a little deceiving with regards to explosion. With Sweat's length, I think he looks just a little bit more like a long strider as he moves. I do think Burns bends a little better. Upon further review, I don't think that outside of bend, that Burns is better in any other facet than Sweat, other than being younger. Sweat really explodes off the line. Sweat is much better with his hands. He's much stronger. Obviously much longer. I love it that we have seen Sweat pancake Tytus Howard and Dalton Risner. He looks good against top competition. I still like Burns, but I worry that there are going to be games where he just gets enveloped and is invisible. Someone posted game tape of a second tier OT prospect playing FSU, and that prospect erased burns. Burns is also going to be someone that will, at least initially, be a target in the run game.

Honestly, I think I watched a few highlights of both of them and formed a quick early opinion. I didn't dig deep enough on Sweat. Especially since I thought he was going to go outside of our draft range. Not enough tape watching. My schedule is super super crazy with work and family this year. You and SIP and McQueen, and probably some others, did most of the legwork for me this year in terms of identifying prospects and I just watched the prospects that I thought would be good targets for us, with the time that I had. I also did partake in some prospect porn, watching guys that I knew were outside our range, like Josh Allen. Turns out, that upon further review, I think we got a guy better than the one I coveted! Having circled back and watched more of both and looked at their scouting reports and workouts, etc, I think Sweat is special. He has the highest ceiling of any of the pass rushers in this year's draft, and I've been waiting for us to swing on a player like that. Sweat's floor also looks pretty high given that he had the top run stop percentage and pressure percentage of all of the edge players this year. I mean, with his speed and length and power, I think his uninjured/unsuspended floor is an 8 sack a year player that is also good vs the run. I could easily see him as a 12 sack a year player with some 15-18 sack seasons.

Here is another good breakdown on Sweat with some good videos. https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2019/3/15/18263489/montez-sweat-nfl-draft-2019-washington-mississippi-state-scouting-report-defensive-end Also, I couldn't help but notice that Myles Garret's peak sack output in college wasn't any better than Sweat's. His workouts also weren't as good and he has more bulk but less length. What a steal Sweat was at 26. I really think he could be an All Pro type player. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/myles-garrett-1.html

Ryan Kerrigan is going to be 31 to start the season. His game isn't built on speed and he's never had health issues, but at some point he will slow down. Kerrigan is going to be very very difficult to replace. In reality, Sweat would be a massively successful draft pick if he is just as productive and reliable as Kerrigan has been, but brings some speed. Obviously, I think Sweat's ceiling is higher than that, but Kerrigan has always been very very good, without ever being great. That is un undervalued commodity. Also, I love that picture of sweat jumping for the ball.

Scouting Combine Test Results Event Result Bench press did not participate 40-yard dash 4.53 (1.57 10-yard split) Vertical Jump 36" Broad Jump 10'9" 3-cone drill 7.01 Shuttle run did not participate Burns’ 40-yard dash time was the second best by a defensive linemen on the day and sits tied at 9th best at the position since 2006 when NFL.com’s list of combine results starts. https://www.tomahawknation.com/florida-state-football-fsu-noles/2019/3/1/18246080/fsu-nfl-combine-results-tracker-brian-burns-demarcus-christmas-nyqwan-murray Apparently, Brian Burns had the 9th fastest 10 yard split at the combine since 2006, with a 1.57. Sweat ran a 1.54. For point of reference, Von miller ran a 1.57. Unreal athleticism. https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/von-miller Also, I didn't realize that Sweat's crazy bull rush from the Senior Bowl was against Tytus Howard. Watching him own Dalton Risner(thx volsmet) was also impressive. I literally have no idea why I preferred Brian Burns.

Look at that speed. He's faster than Richardson, but also physical. McLaurin is going to get a ton of playing time, especially given his blocking ability. I could easily see him grabbing 40 passes this year and being a huge contributor on teams.

I wonder how telling the PFF pressure rate is for a prospect. Sweat was tied top 3 in the last 3 years. I remember PFF saying something about pressures being more reliable and predictive of NFL success than sacks. Sweat definitely has been productive. I honestly think there is a real chance, with his production, length, and athleticism, that we may have drafted our first all pro defender in years. I hope he keeps his head on straight and works hard.

Volsmet, I missed that game. Any chance you have the ability to gif Settle's Dallas game up a little bit in the defensive front thread?

This. We should have stayed put and taken the impact player. If there is one there, that's usually the right choice. In the 1st or 2nd, as a general rule, if there is an impact player there, I'm picking them and staying put. If there is no one I love, I'd be open to moving back. The thing that pisses me off about the Murphy and Anderson picks, is that they were inarguably awful picks from the moment they were made. Most on Extremeskins and in the media knew they were reaches and it's no surprise that there were a ton of more productive players chosen after each player. We have gotten so much better at drafting with the current structure, IMHO. Sweat was a great pick. He's an elite athlete, with elite size, and produced very well. Moving up and grabbing that kind of guy for two 2nd's is so much better than trading back off of a guy like that for 2 seconds. The Colts moved back and drafted Ben Banogu. He's an elite athlete, but is 24, smaller than sweat, and never produced on a level comparable to Sweat. Even if he winds up being good, it was a poor process pick. Older relatively non-productive athletes like Banogu that are drafted on athletic potential belong in 3rd or 4th. Sweat was a great pick and has the potential to really transform this defense if he can become a pro-bowl caliber speed rusher. Also, I really like the Senior Bowl as an evaluation tool. Ever since Chad OchoCinco Johnson tore up the Senior Bowl, I have noticed over and over again how the best prospects at the Senior Bowl tend to pan out. Brandon Graham was another one of those guys. Anyway, Sweat was a great pick and I think he has a very good chance to be a pro-bowl caliber player.

Anderson may not be garbage, but he is a huge bust for draft slot. Preston Smith isn't a world beater. Smith had 4 sacks and we let him move on. We literally brought in Cassanova McKinzy off the street because we needed more from the pass edge position. McKinzy was an UDFA who ran a 4.83 40 yard dash at less than 250 pounds. Anderson hasn't been able to get on the field without having anyone impressive in front of him. Anderson has 2 sacks in 2 years as a 2nd round draft pick. Juju Smith-Schuster, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, James Conner, Eddie Jackson, Tarik Cohen and George Kittle were all chosen after Anderson and have made a pro-bowl. I would argue that Montae Nicholson, Fabian Moreau, and Chase Roullier would all have been better picks in the 2nd, since they have at least been able to sniff the field as starters. Given a re-draft, where would you guys choose Anderson? The 5th? The 6th? I might grab him in the 6th. Maybe. Anyway, Sweat could really be what I have been wanting at the ROLB position, and fits the model of what the Skins like. He has speed, but is also long and is a more effective run stopper than the other pass rushers available.

Anderson was a second round draft pick. He is a bust relative to his draft status. I’m not sure in what round I’d redraft him, but maybe the 5th. He has not justified that slot at all. It’s not his fault. He, like Trent Murphy, were low upside picks that were clear reaches at the time they were made. Re: Montez, I didn’t realize he had such good hips and feet. He killed the 3 cone and 20 yard shuttle as well. He’s no DK Metcalf in terms of just being an in-line guy.

People are so crazy when it comes to Kerrigan. 10-13 sacks every year. Tons of pressures. Never injured. High character. Not everyone can be a HOF player, but Kerrigan has spent a whole career being miles beyond what Anderson is, and Kerrigan still hasn’t shown signs of slowing down.

He’s not a busy because very few people had expectations for him. He doesn’t have the length or speed or explosion to impact the game as a pass rusher. He was an enormous reach in Rd 2, just like Trent Murphy. Almost the entire board recognized him as a reach at the time. It’s not hindsight. And, we were right. Sweat is going to start as long as he looks ok in camp and the preseason.

I share your concerns, but have been feeling a little bit more upbeat. Special teams gunner. Great blocker. High character guy and team leader. If he produces just a bit from the WR spot, I think his comp could be James Thrash. They are very similar sized players with similar athletic traits and strengths. I wouldn't cry about James Thrash in the 3rd. I also wouldn't throw a giant party over it. http://www.nfl.com/player/jamesthrash/2503350/profile

There is no way he is as much of a candidate for the 4th spot as Harris. Harris has been killing it in camp and Davis is occasionally mentioned. I don’t think Davis is in any better position than Quinn, I’m terms of the depth chart. Also, it to sound jaded, but who really cares about the 5th receiver on any given team. Depth at almost any other position is more valuable. LB. DL/OL, DB. Unless a 5th WR is great on special teams, he will usually be close to invisible.