Going Commando

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

This is why analytics and PFF both can be laughingstocks. 

Wylie is underrated in the sense that a lot of fans think he's unplayable garbage when he's really just a league average starter.  He's a fourth or fifth linemen on a good line who seems worse than he is because our line is bad and generated so few wins.  For someone to be the most underrated player on a roster, they need to be a good player by a broader standard.  To me that's B-Rob for us.  But I do think there is some question about his scheme fit moving forward.  I like his style a lot better for a gap scheme, and there might be a chance we'll run a zone heavy scheme instead because of Peters's history in SF.  We'll see what Kingsbury installs this year.

2 hours ago, DWinzit said:

They do keep bringing in WR's, mostly semi bottom feeding hoping for hits.

They should not stop as the overall talent level at WR isn't that great.

They're banking a lot on Luke McCaffrey.  As of today, he's our WR3, and Dotson as the WR2 feels almost as speculative.  It's a WR room with some upside, but not a lot of bankability, which is a frustrating lack of progress from where we were when Dwayne Haskins was the QB in 2019.  Most teams do the opposite and try and bring in stud vet WRs when they are developing high draft pick QBs.  This is something we're probably going to have to do too, unless Dotson and McCaffrey are shockingly good.

12 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

 Are you underestimating Tyler Lockett or setting the bar for Dotson high. Lockett is a little older now but if Jahan reached Tyler's career one day, then he would have been a good pick in the 1st. rd. for sure is what I think. I would take a Tyler Lockett type WR any day. 

Lockett wasn't much of a receiver until his fourth season when he was 26.  Jahan has already posted similar production to Lockett's first two years and he came into the NFL a year younger.  I don't think that is too high a bar for Jahan to reach, especially not as his best case scenario.  It would also be a pretty major disappointment if Jahan didn't break out until he was 26.  He kind of needs to do it this year.  Definitely has to if he wants his fifth year picked up.

Hartman has that dog in him.  Keep him over Driskell for the third QB.

38 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Ekeler balled out in the opener last year but then got hurt and had to play the rest of the season injured and on an absolute mess of a Charger team(they actually had worse coaching than us if we you can believe that). I'm excited to see what he can do if healthy.

Ekeler is turning 29 and coming off a three ypc season where he looked slow.  This is pretty much what the cliff looks like for backs.  Moments of old magic are still there, but the general effectiveness and consistency just disappear abruptly.  He's never been a workhorse back either, more of a pass catching and red zone specialist.  At this point in each of their careers, B Rob is much better than him, and Jayden will probably carry the ball more than Ekeler.  I see him as third in the pecking order, and more likely to make his impact as a pass catcher and locker room presence.

Terry played through turf toe.  And he definitely got frozen out by Howell and Bieniemy.  Howell never really trusted him and Bieniemy's system sucked for receivers.  Despite all of that, he still got his thousand yards.

Jahan has somewhat low upside because of his lack of size and strength, although he does have weirdly strong red zone ability for a tiny receiver because he is so good at playing above the rim.  He's not going to have a Nico Collins type of break out because of the lack of play strength though.  His best case scenario is probably Tyler Lockett with a red zone game, which would be huge for us.  Wish we would use him in the return game.  He's the best return man on our roster now that Gibson is gone.

I do think that Jayden will be very good for Jahan at least, as long as Jayden hits the ground running.  You don't want to play a bunch of man coverage against Jayden because of his incredibly dangerous run threat, which should free Jahan up to get off the line of scrimmage.  You also don't necessarily want to play a ton of two high against Jayden for the same reason, and Terry is the one who will dictate the high safety, so Jahan is going to get a lot of one on ones.  The table is set for him to have success.  He just needs to run his routes like a stud and catch the ball.

We could use more speed at WR though.  Speed is what defines Miami and KC and we don't have anyone in our offense with elite speed other than Jayden.  Jayden's a gifted vertical passer, we need multiple guys who can smoke one on one coverage deep to take advantage of this.

We also need a way better OL.  We need a group that can hold up forever in pass pro, and I'm still not sure what kind of run game we are installing.  I'd consider totally reshuffling the line.  Cosmi is our best pass protector and our fastest OL.  Braeden Daniels our second fastest one.  We also know Wylie has an issue with over setting.  Why not try Cosmi and Daniels at our tackle spots and move Wylie inside then?  Especially if you want to run outside zone a lot.

8 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Love B Rob. But Ekeler is going to get a significant amount of touches. Would love to see some 2 back sets with both on the field though. Move Ekeler in motion to get him open. 

That would be a really nice outcome, but I think Ekeler is going over his cliff.  I think he was brought in mainly as a mentor and third down pass catcher.  At this point BRob is probably a way better player than him.

13 minutes ago, Bifflog said:

Realistically, it's likely the new staff salvages at least one Ron pick into a good player, and I think Dotson seems far more likely than Forbes or Davis.  I liked everything about him his rookie year, clearly was a better fit for Turner's offense (which was pretty sad in it's own right, but in different ways to EB's).

Jamin Davis is already pretty decent.  PFF grades him a 67 last year, which is kind of amazing given how bad the defense was.  If he doesn't stick around, it will likely be due to a numbers game--not wanting to spend too much on LB after signing Luvu, or having Magee break out. But I could also see him having a good year if he can stay healthy.  He's one of our only big players on defense, and he's going to benefit from not having to play inside now that we've got Wagner and Luvu.  At least one of those two should be on the field at all times, unless we get really unlucky with injuries.

Dotson and Forbes are the ones who need to be reclaimed, and I think both will get significantly better under the new coaches.  Dotson seems to have had a personal issue with Bieniemy and Howell, and Forbes was being set up to fail by the last regime in a way that almost seemed intentional.  Joe Whitt is going to figure out how to get Forbes playing well.

I think the dude who is going to explode under the new regime is B Rob though.  For many reasons.  His position coach is going to max out his talent, he's splitting the load with a former All Pro, Jayden is going to give him light boxes + we're going to lean on him to carry the offense while Jayden learns the game, and he's due for his big third year leap.  Somehow he was already pretty good last season despite not getting many opportunities.  Just seems like there are a lot of parallels between him and James Conner, and that he could be due for one of those 1000+ scrimmage yards and 15 td seasons.

Is that Marcus Rosemy Jacksaint between Jayden and Sinnott?  Kind of surprised at how small he looks.  Same for Coleman, he looks smaller than Sinnott.  Maybe Sinnott is just huge.

Just now, FootballZombie said:

 

Those tracker things prolly chaff something fierce.

 

If I'm getting paid millions I'd choose being comfy over a bad look.

Just wear it under the shirt.  Accept it for what it is.

The male sports bra is my least favorite trend in athliesure fashion.  Now Forbes is wearing one outside of a shirt?  Wtf

Beside that, wearing a strand of pearls barely stands out.

3 hours ago, Ball Security said:

I’ll never figure out basketball prospects. They talk up Cody Williams, but this guy couldn’t score a point in the play-in game and was left off the court altogether in closing time.

It's such a leap of growth that people project with basketball prospects.  Sometimes it pans out, but mostly it doesn't.  For every Scottie Barnes there are ten more Kevin Knoxes and Cam Reddishes.  People consistently overrate mediocre shot creation in 6'7+ perimeter players.  They think being able to straight line drive to the basket without tripping over your own feet and having a shot that's not completely broken is the most valuable and projectable trait in a basketball player, meanwhile the kid is completely passive and has zero gravity and took four shots a game for his college or euro team and is a complete nonfactor on the boards and on defense.  And the 7'8 giant that nobody in his level of basketball can score over or defend without fouling is worthless unless he can switch over top of screens onto point guards and drain stepback threes.

14 hours ago, Ball Security said:

We could draft Clingan at number two or wait until he bounces around the league and grab him like Alex Len, Greg Monroe, or Marvin Bagley.

 

(I’m not saying don’t draft him, just saying he is likely to bust like any of the perimeter players.

I don't think he's as likely to bust, but yeah, there is bust potential in all of these prospects.  The upside against risk ratio is more favorable for giants like Clingan and Sarr though.  They can dominate games without scoring, and they will fit in with every single team that needs a defensive anchor.

I don't want us to keep hitching our wagon to perimeter players who are huge negatives on defense any more.  None of the ones in this class are dominant enough to build another unbalanced roster around anyway.  Just get the anchor and then next year we can try again for a better perimeter player to build the offense around.  7'2 guys who totally dominate the paint and can still guard out to the perimeter are rare tickets to 50 win seasons.

Just pick Sarr or Clingan.  We need to be able to control the paint to beat any of these playoff teams.  None of these guards or wings are going to be transcendent players.  Get the foundation big and try again for the elite perimeter player next year.

Trying to win with the kinds of bigs we've had for the past 30 years is like trying to win in the NFL with total garbage for your OL and DL.  It's just never going to happen.  Get off the treadmill and pick a big that's actually worth building around.  Then hedge your bets with Edey in the late first just in case he's the next Jokic.  I swear to God if we talk ourselves into some soft ass Euro wing because we think we've got something with Kuzma and Bagley, I will never watch another Wizards game again.

Pick Clingan.  Or pick Sarr.  Whichever one plays better defense.  Then use 26 to pick Edey.  Get the seven footer right and the rest of the rebuild takes care of itself.  Our front court is low upside trash and can't play any defense at all, and we will never win anything until that changes, no matter what's going on with our wings and guards.

On 5/10/2024 at 9:07 PM, skinny21 said:

Agree about his release, which is what I was alluding to regarding “in time”.  I’m not sure I follow the vertical element piece though, what am I missing beyond the combo of speed/quickness (and release)?

He barely ran any deep breaking routes at Rice.  They used him as an underneath zone and flat weapon, where the vast majority of his breaks are coming within ten yards of the line of scrimmage.  I don't think he has the speed and shiftiness and route savvy to be a vertical threat in an offense.  I've read he also struggles with beating press, but I didn't really see a lot of press coverage in his cut ups.  Mostly he was running through zones.

The concepts he ran in college were very reminiscent of the kind of role that a TE tends to run.  I guess it's similar to what Ed did back in the day.  There was a lot of slot alignment, and even looked like some h-back alignments.  A bit of wildcat QB, but not much effectiveness from that.  He doesn't have TE size, but he has TE toughness, and I could see him also developing into a very good blocker like his dad, which that plus the Sinnott pick makes me think that Kingsbury is going to run a SF style outside zone run game.

My favorite Jerzhan Newton factoid is that he had 104 tackles, 30 TFLs, and 16 sacks as a high school Senior.  Those are the stats I'd get from playing Madden on rookie with the blocking sliders turned down.  One of the most underrated talents in defensive linemen is the ability to find the football--playing through your match ups is the meta game, not just beating the blocks in front of you--and Newton is about as good as it gets at this.  I've been thinking of him as a Javon Hargrave type of DL, but I think he might be better given how ridiculous his individual production is.  I think he's a mini Derrick Brown/Jonathan Allen.

7 minutes ago, bird_1972 said:

 

Agree with your take except for the last sentence. Newton has a boot on his foot. Didn't know he had surgery - apparently 5 months ago (still in the boot). That might have been a reach pick for us now. 

I think he'll get healthy.  He's a special player that is cartoonishly productive when he's out there.  He could have a 60 tackle season as our third IDL.

Magee is probably the guy who is going to blow up and be the steal of the class for us.  He would be my bet anyway.  I can't find enough cut ups to really form my own solid take on him, but what I saw of him looked fine.  A couple of reasons why I think he could be the gem:

- elite athlete

- leadership potential.  Background as QB and 2x team captain

- best mentorship opportunity given the expertise of Dan Quinn and company for developing linebackers.  Scheme should be really favorable to him.

- gonna get a year to simmer on the bench behind Jamin and Wagner

- day three linebackers hitting big is fairly common compared to other positions

My guess is that Newton is part of an elite IDL rotation with fringe Probowl pressure/sack production early in his career, Sainristil and Sinnott are solid long term starters, and Magee eventually takes over the starting weak side LBer role next to Luvu.

57 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Kinda wonder if we’re undervaluing McCaffrey.  Just given his size, speed, quickness and hands (including focus and contested catch ability), I’m not sure he couldn’t handle outside receiver duties in time.  I know that’s kind of putting the cart before the horse, but still, lot of upside.  Add in his experience at qb, the fact he’s still learning the receiver position, having his dad and brother’s influence/experience… lot of intangibles to like/love that should bolster his growth.

I think he can play outside in the way that TEs sometimes line up outside.  His role at Rice was like being a mini-TE.  Mainly a middle field and first level zone beater and blocker, and I assume he'll play a similar role here.  He doesn't have the vertical element in his game to be the kind of outside receiver you're thinking of, nor the ability to build up speed and separation out of downfield breaks against man coverage.  I think his release game is also fairly underdeveloped.

20 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

When we picked Mathis: I thought. "That's an obvious mistake."

We always hear that we can't judge a draft class until three years out, but a class full of contemporaneously perceived reaches usually doesn't get better looking over time.  Almost all of the reaches from the Rivera era have been generally disappointing players.  The two who were seen as value picks (Cosmi and Howell) massively outplayed their draft position.  The rest of the Day 1 and 2 guys who were taken around their natural range (St Juste, Gibson, Robinson) have been fine.  I'm not really judging their day 3 work at all, except in their favor with Howell/Curl, because finding anyone after like the top ~130 who significantly hits is pulling a winning lottery ticket.

I think we'll see that pattern continue to play out with our new regime's drafts, because I think that's how it works for everyone except for the very most shrewd FOs like the Rams.  Jayden Daniels is obviously going to define the success or failure of our class, even if he's the only player from the entire group who works out.  But looking beyond him at the 2024 class, Newton was an obvious value pick and will probably be the defining player of the class after Jayden Daniels.  Sainristil and Sinnott were taken about where they should have gone and will probably be solid long term starters.  Coleman and McCaffrey were pretty substantial reaches and will probably not work out.  If this bears out, then getting three starting caliber players (including a guy with Pro Bowl upside) from five picks 36-100 is good enough to hold serve.  But it doesn't necessarily mean we're getting better since we had to trade three starters to get the ammo for those picks, and one of them was a Pro-Bowler.

Back to Mathis and Dotson, one of the reasons we reached on them is because of another huge issue that this franchise has had: getting our best players to second contracts.  This is a process that is automatic for most teams, and the good ones tend to get extensions done a year early because they are good at long term planning and seeing those plans through.  But this franchise is cheap, has always had a dumb grass is greener mentality about outside FAs, regularly picks fights with it's best players, is super reactionary instead of ever building with long term vision, and tries to use contract years to send messages and motivate players who obviously don't need that **** to play hard.  We absolutely reached on Dotson and Mathis in part because we were afraid of not being able to get extension with Terry and Daron done, and I would bet anything they were picked to use as leverage in extension negotiations.  Ron got three important contract extensions done in his entire tenure here.  Three.  And that's a far better record than what Bruce Allen accomplished before him.  Hopefully those days are over.  And hopefully we can get obviously necessary extensions done a year early now, AKA Cosmi needs a new deal.

1 hour ago, redskinss said:

Can't say as i have much hope for phidarian but I'll say this he's less of an F than he is an incomplete. 

He missed his entire rookie season then the first half of his second season and when he came back he was both injured and playing for a defense that had totally quit.

 

Usually when a player starts his career the way he has they don't recover but if he had 32 games under his belt at this point and was still a ghost it'd be good night for his career.

He still has a chance to show something if healthy and in a defense that has real leadership and hasn't checked out.

My hope that he could be a semi valuable contributor off the bench hasn't vanished completely but the light is dim.

He's passed on the depth chart by a rotation of Allen/Payne/Newton.  He'll still play if he's healthy, but he's looking at maybe 300 snaps a season at most unless somebody in front of him gets hurt.  That's not a lot of opportunity to make an impact.  And TBH, he might get passed by Ridgeway too.

He needs to make the most of whatever snaps he can get this year because his NFL career depends on it.  He needs to have a Tim Settle-style impact where you can tell this dude can play despite limited action.

Coleman's doesn't have the pass pro chops to hang at tackle in the NFL.  TCU tried to cover up his limitations in NFL style pass pro reps (where he is one on one with a decent edge and has to vertical set) as much as they could, but when they faced obvious passing downs where there was a four man rush and no chance to double, he struggled.  The Big 12 CG in 2022 is a pretty clear demonstration of this, particularly when he had to face Felix Uzomah (who is a very mid NFL edge prospect).  They spent the first half covering up Coleman with doubles and using RPOs to slow the rush, and K St obliged by mostly playing 8 man coverages on passing downs.  Then all Hell started breaking loose for Coleman in the second half when K St started sending 4+ and they had to play catch up and got into a bunch of second and third and longs.  Here are some gifs demonstrating his issues:

Third and seven where he's on an island against Uzomah.  K St runs a blitz that leaves Coleman without help in pass pro for one of the first times in the game.  Uzomah smokes him with a speed rush and turns a super flat corner on him without even getting NFL caliber lean on the rush.  Coleman's set is terrible, his hand placement is terrible (tries to catch him late and Uzomah doesn't even have to rip through him), his pads are super high, and his feet get super heavy and die at the point of contact.

Second and seven, TCU runs an RPO with a combo block for Coleman, and one step drop for the slant.  This is what I mean by TCU protecting him as much as possible.  But notice the way he still loses this rep: wide hands and high pads leave him leaning and super easy to shuck when rushers counter back inside.  He is so weak against inside counters that he's just not going to be able hang in pass pro at tackle.  TCU did everything they could to cover him up on this play, the run fake worked perfectly and got the linebackers and safeties playing up, and the play still got sped up and broken up.

Another third and 10 where Coleman has to play on an island against a speed rush, and a bad set with bad hands leads to a hold.  The edge got a super slow jump off the snap too.

First and 20, down by 11 in the fourth, obvious passing situation and K St blitzes.  Another terrible set and punch (high pads and hand placement, that was an uncalled hands to the face) causes him to lose to another basic inside counter.  Play gets sped up and Duggan took another huge hit.

Another third and long where Coleman has to play on an island against a speed rush and he just loses immediately.  I don't know how else to say it, but his pass pro sets are not NFL caliber for playing on the outside, and his hands are god awful.  He's also really stiff, and does not have the lateral speed to play on an island without oversetting like Hell and getting smoked back inside by counters.

Just as a bonus gif, I wanted to show how his balance issues and heavy feet into contact can cause problems with block sustain in the run game.  In general, he is way better in the run game than the pass game.  But he's more competent than dominant as a run blocker.  Cooper Beebe is what a dominant run blocker looks like.  Beebe is who we should have picked at 67.

Playing Coleman at tackle this year is setting him up for failure.  His best shot at holding his own for us is at LG.

4 hours ago, redskinss said:

I certainly hope you're wrong.

The team seems to think you are, all indication ls are that they believe he's a tackle.

We'll see what happens in camp.  If they end up playing him at tackle because they don't have anyone else, that would be a real disservice to him.  I'm convinced tackle is not the right fit for him in the NFL. I think he is absolutely a guard, and I don't actually think he's got position flexibility to play tackle in the NFL.  The athleticism and length and history of playing the position in college don't change the fact that this guy will get absolutely destroyed by the kind of counter rushers that play on the edge in the NFL.

1 hour ago, redskinss said:

We don't need position versatile we need a starting left tackle.

I really hope that attribute doesn't avail itself.

He's 100% a guard.  They're either going to play him at guard, or they're going to run him out of the NFL.

Unless they sign a cap cut with real starting experience, Lucas is going to end up winning the starting job at LT.  I think they'll probably start Coleman at LG, and it'll be sink or swim for him there.  I don't know what we're going to do if Lucas or Wylie go down.  Moving Coleman outside will be detrimental to his development.  They're going to have to move Cosmi outside and hope that Daniels or Stromberg can start.