Another paper on hydroxychloroquine fron China.  This one suggests that it works:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20040758v1.full.pdf+html

The South is looking like a total disaster to me.  

I feel that, while NY has the largest number of cases, they are handling it well.

Just now, spjunkies said:

 

Not happening, the swing states that are going to be wrecked by this virus will do him in.

You may be right.  Look at Michigan right now.  Coronavirus is destroying that state.

4 minutes ago, skinfan2k said:

You know im not a fan of trump at all, but this guy has so much swagger.  it's almost admirable. If you were an outsider with no knowledge, he would be someone easily you would fall for. 

Well, it's true.  He's going to get reelected.

33 minutes ago, nonniey said:

Well here is something interesting. It would be great news if this turns out to be correct.

 

Financial Times:

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?segmentId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9

 

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford. If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all. “We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said. The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February..........

The problem with her argument would be the cruise ships.

Here  is a website where they try to track all positive and negative test results, along with total tests conducted:

https://covidtracking.com/data/

Not all states provide reliable data, but some Southern states not looking good (Georgia and Louisiana, and I am thinking Mississippi).  Also concerning is Michigan (although data reliability is a D).

I found the original Chinese paper here:

http://subject.med.wanfangdata.com.cn/UpLoad/Files/202003/43f8625d4dc74e42bbcf24795de1c77c.pdf

There is a table there that seems interesting, but it's in Chinese.

13 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

China did report good results, but if that's coming out of India that's not so good.

 

(I trust the people in India to get it right more than China.)

The abstract that I posted above actually is a Chinese study, not Indian.  

16 minutes ago, FrFan said:

Some Intolerable medias misinformants trying to make us believe Chloroquine is toxic now, you may die ! this is rich !

Why because they can't even read the texts and they are getting a huge kick out of spreading fear.

Last bur not least Prof. Raoult criticized the macrony because we've been 2 weeks late compared to the Italians and we are unfortunately going to pay the price.

He had a beef with Prof. Yves Levy head chief of INSERM who happen to be the husband of former Macron's Minister of Health Buzyn !

Levy who was accused by Lancet  Link forcing him to withdraw his candidacy for another term.

France may be back, but the old ways persist for INSERM

 

 

 

Preliminary data not looking good for hydroxychloroquine:

I know this is not realistic at all, but the ultimate solution may be to test all 300 million like they tested everybody  in Vo, Italy (very small town).  You will obviously need to test a few times. Anybody who enters HAS to be tested.

We are struggling to produce a million test kits, so it is just a dream.

2 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

 

Tesla also has 13 billion in cash to service the debt.

They raised 2 billion just a few days ago, but ultimately it is just a luxury product with high debt.

That company has always been highly leveraged. It's not going to survive long. 

5 minutes ago, twa said:

 

which is why they wanna get rid of uber and lyft.

But there are other highly leveraged companies out there too that we need to be aware of though.  Tesla, for example, has 13 billion debt.  Most of it is not due this year, but I don't see people buying Teslas next year either, or the year after.  I hope I am wrong.  

3 minutes ago, twa said:

uber and lyft are delivering food and numerous other things fwih business is booming.

I can see the  Uber Eats booming, but the taxi business?  Not many vehicles outside.

Even if everything opens up, who would go to restaurants right now? They are done for a year or two.  The airplane industry is done for a while.  Boeing is about to get a bailout.  

Uber has debt of close to 7.5 billion.  That business must be doing  not so well . How about Lyft?    If Uber can't pay their debt, what other financials will be affected? There could be a cascading effect.

As people here have pointed out, there are people here with children.  With schools closing, somebody needs to stay home. 

In fact one of my coworkers has decided to work part time because  he has a child to take care of.

9 minutes ago, FrFan said:

Antimalarial drug confirmed effective on COVID-19

BEIJING, Feb. 17 (Xinhua) -- Chinese experts, based on the result of clinical trials, have confirmed that Chloroquine Phosphate, an antimalarial drug, has a certain curative effect on the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), a Chinese official said here Monday.

It appears that it's already being given to some patients.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marybethpfeiffer/2020/03/22/one-patient-dodges-a-covid-bullet-is-she-a-harbinger-or-outlier/#56d574a75b84

In this case the doctor insisted that she get hydrochloroquine.  

Now, this is a case where she claims that it worked.  What about all the cases where it did not work?   Obviously, we are not hearing from them because they are deceased.

4 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

In order to pay you the government has to collect taxes from a functioning economy. I would suggest medial research and testing is a luxury and not a necessity in the case of a faltering government, which would likely be the case in a situation where every thing is closed a year from now... 

I doubt medical funding of any kind will be cut, specially when we have a medical issue going on in the world.  The lab workers are still going to work, but they have been told to rotate for now.  

12 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

You won’t be teleworking, you won’t be working. The economy will collapse long before then. Hopefully there is enough trump bucks to go around... 

I would think that my job is safer than anybody else's.  But even then, I am not sure.  I work  as a computational biologist.  The thing here is that a lot of lab folks (post-docs) have been told to telework.  If they can't do their experments, all they can do is just train.  In my case, I still have something to do.

I would think that even if there is a depression, the government would not cut NIH funding.  The problem we have today is a medical issue.

2 minutes ago, Larry said:

Well, if a lot of jobs permanently transition to tele, that might not be a tragedy.  

 

Might.  "Tele" also equals "easily outsourced".  

Well, I think some habits will change for the foreseeable future.  I think restaurants are going to suffer.  I am wondering how Uber will hold on.  They are going bankrupt if you ask me.

India is looking more and more like the next hotspot.  Also take a good look at Indonesia and Malaysia.  Indonesia's death count at 10.  That's a big country with 100+ million people.

Now the question becomes, can we even open after a year?  I think we will be teleworking for a long while.

The number of coronavirus deaths is probably a lagging indicator.  The death count is going to shoot up, unfortunately.   Only on March 16, the total number of cases was 4663.  2% of that would be around 93.  We had 85 today.  With a total number of cases of 26k(slightly higher at 26.7, but just for argument's sake), 2% of that would be 520.  I hope I am totally wrong.  I should probably be looking at active cases rather than total cases, but this is about to shoot up.  

Here is a really good article that everybody should read.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/eradicated-coronavirus-mass-testing-covid-19-italy-vo

We are a country of 330 million.  So testing everybody is probably going to be difficult.  However, we should be producing as many test kits as possible so that people who are not showing any symptoms can be identified.  

The part about Veneto, Italy is interesting in the above article. So even though 8/10 people got tested, the mortality rate they say is 2.5-3%.

We need to take into account the fact that Italy is overall an "old" country.  I gotta say, I worry about Florida with average age of 42.  New York's average age  is 6 years younger.

I am surprised Fauci made it.  There is a townhall planned by NIH today at 1.

I can see on fivethirtyeight that his poll numbers are going up as well.  

There is a recession coming.  His poll numbers will not go up drastically.  He is toast.

Well, but how sensitive and specific is this assay?  What is the %? Did they provide a number?