mistertim

I don't get why some people seem to have this persistent aversion to taking a QB high in the 1st for some reason. Why all the talk about picking up a guy who falls to the 2nd or trying to trade back into the 1st for a guy who slipped? Why not figure out who our guy is in the draft and go get him early in the 1st round? At this point the positional value and importance of QB for this team trumps any sort of "BPA" philosopy. QB is our BPA. Nothing else matters until we hit on that.

A 1st and a 3rd for Wilson would get us laughed out of the building. That would be like walking into a Ferrari dealership and asking if they'll take your Honda and $20k in trade for an F8 Spider. And who knows what Wilson wants. There were reports in December that his short list was now NYG, Denver, and the Saints...none of which would necessarily be on a "ready to win now" list I'd think. But then after that report Wilson was asked about it and he basically shot it down. Historically these types of trade rumors don't usually go anywhere, especially when they concern franchise QBs. The exception seems to be Watson, but that's obviously a pretty special case. There were rumors about it last year with Wilson, Rodgers, and Carr as well...and nothing came of it. Now it's the same this year all over again. I don't see why the Raiders would trade Carr unless they bring in a new GM and HC who want to clean house and start from scratch again. But even in that event, I'd imagine they would ask for 2 1sts for him. Wilson would be 3 1sts most likely. Or 2 1sts plus several players.

I think we have a good enough team to where if we had a legit top 5-10 QB we'd definitely be contenders, but it's not a good enough team to where a modest improvement in QB play would put us over the top. IMO all that might do is add one or two wins. So maybe we would have snuck into the playoffs and then likely been eliminated pretty quickly. I just don't really see the purpose in that. As far as still getting a real QB through the draft...I'm not so sure that would happen. Let's say we gave up a 2nd and 3rd for Jimmy G. That's not the kind of draft capital you give up in a trade for a stopgap or backup QB. That's generally what you give up for a QB who you hope can be your guy for years. Add to that the fact that the deal would likely need to include a new contract as 2022 is the last on his current one. So now you have high draft capital and probably pretty big money contract wrapped up in one QB. Given that, I'm not so sure they'd still be looking to draft a QB high. So that's my biggest worry about the Jimmy G possibility. That if we got him, we'd be getting him in the hopes that he's the guy and would basically be rolling with him for the next 2-3 years in lieu of drafting a QB in the 1st. And it would probably be a pretty depressing few years. By the end of it Ron would probabl be a goner and we'd probably have lost some key players. Then it's time for a whole new rebuild.

I think the main area where we disagree here is how much of an upgrade JG would be over Heinicke. I agree that he'd be an improvement, but I think it would only be a modest improvement. And as you know, I'm not exactly a member of the Hive or anything. They're a lot alike in some ways. Both low TD game manager types who are never going to be guys who can carry a team, both have had offenses catered to their limitations, both have very questionable decision making at times. JG's main advantage over Heinicke is that he has an actual NFL arm, which is obviously a pretty big thing. However, he also doesn't have Heinicke's escapability and slipperiness in the pocket. So in my opinion they're both very mediocre QBs who are never going to be anything other than mediocre, however one is slightly better than the other. So I don't see the point in wasting a high round pick on the same kind of guy, just a little bit better. I'd rather get some FA like Mariota or Trubisky and then draft a QB in the 1st than give up a 2nd or more for a slightly upgraded Heinicke. None of Mariota, Trubisky, Jimmy G or Heinicke are ever going to take us to the promised land IMO (since we don't have a supporting cast + defense like SF does). So what's the point in giving up draft picks for one of them? Just go the cheap route and go all out and get our QB in the draft.

Sure, the weather had some impact on both QBs I'm assuming. But IMO the game Rodgers had was much more of an aberration than the game that Jimmy G had. Jimmy G usually has a low number of TDs and throws a decent amount of picks, so a 0 TD 1 INT game isn't exactly bizarre for him. But a 0 TD game for Rodgers is pretty rare. I'm honestly not sure exactly where you're going with the Rodgers/Jimmy G comparison thing. As far as Jimmy G and Heinicke...yeah that's pretty much what we did with Heinicke. He's pretty mediocre and has limitations, so we masked his limitations as best we could and will move on from him very soon, just like the Niners are moving on from Jimmy G. I don't see any reason why we would want to give up a high round pick for their mediocre castoff because he's a bit less bad than our current mediocre QB.

Rodgers is a future 1st ballot HoF QB who had a somewhat bad day. Jimmy G is a mediocre QB who had a somewhat typical day. There's simply no comparison there. And saying "they win with him" is technically true, but doesn't actually have much meaning because he's rarely much of a real cause of their wins for the most part. He's just sort of there. He fills a role, and they design their offense around him so he doesn't have to do too much, because they probably know he's not capable of much. Kyle has already moved on. They drafted Jimmy G's replacement because they clearly want something more than a mediocre game manager who only wins when there's a stellar cast surrounding him. They aren't going to suddenly do a 180 and decide that he's their future now, just because he was carried by the rest of the team to another NFC championship game.

I seriously doubt the Niners coaches are under any illusion as to how good Jimmy G actually is. They all know perfectly well that the team won despite him yesterday. They all know perfectly well that he played, at the very best, mediocre football when they went to the SB before (2 TDs, 3 INTs during that run) and wasn't one of the main factors in them getting there. If they actually thought he was a really good QB they wouldn't have used 3 1st round picks on Trey Lance. Now...does that mean they won't be able to sucker some team into overpaying for him based upon some inflated sense of worth because he tagged along to a SB (or even two if they get super lucky this time)? Probably not. But I sure as hell hope we're not the suckers who overpay for him. I don't think anyone would have to "pry" him away, as if the Niner suddenly decided that he's actually a good QB now. They know exactly what he is and what he can do, and it's not enough for them, so they drafted a guy with a much higher ceiling.

Exactly. Eventually it will be your turn at bat again. If you swing and don't hit a home run in baseball you don't just quit the game. I think where Howell goes is almost as much of an enigma as where Willis goes. If you listen to the mock drafts and talking heads you'd think Howell may be a 2nd rounder but as @KDawghas noted as well, there doesn't really seem to be any specific football reason for him dropping in their opinions, so it could just be a case of groupthink. I have a feeling Howell may go higher than some think. He's the #2 QB on my board at the moment, behind Corral.

Personally I wouldn't give more than a 3rd for Jimmy G, but if they put him on the trading block I'm assuming they'll want at least a 2nd rounder but might even try to get a 1st. If we gave up a 1st round pick for him I'd need to down an entire bottle of Advil due to the blunt force trauma from facepalming for 3 days straight. I also don't see any chance that SF trades Lance. They invested 3 1st round picks in the kid, and Jimmy G is who he is. He'll never be anything more than an average QB and Lance has that crazy upside.

Him having one or two nice passes doesn't change the fact that he had a crappy game overall. He ended up with a QBR of 11.8 That team won in spite of him.

That's because we basically have nothing right now. When you're starving and have no food a half eaten dorito laying on the ground looks like a ribeye steak, but that doesn't change the fact that it's still a half eaten dorito. And yes Jimmy G throws with anticipation...to the other team. He did his best to lose them the game yesterday but the defense and special teams bailed him out.

You can't really "create" a star if the guy doesn't already have that potential in him. Jimmy G doesn't have that potential. Most players don't. SF is not so much making Jimmy G a good QB with their system as they are trying to minimize how much damage he can cause and what impact he has on the game (though he still did his best to lose them the game last night). And they obviously know that's not a long term winning solution or they wouldn't have given up a boatload of picks to move up for Lance.

Good point. Even SF with their system catered around a mediocre QB's skills and a dominant defense realized that Jimmy G just wasn't it and gave up a king's ransom to draft their QB of the future. Same thing the Chiefs did. They went to the playoffs with Alex Smith and then turned around and gave up a bunch to move up for Mahomes. Even teams that see some success with mediocre QBs eventually jettison them for someone with a much higher potential. And we're supposed to be happy about taking their castoffs?

Nobody in the NFL agrees with you. Every team that doesn't have a top end franchise QB is looking for one and recognizes the need for one. The Niners didn't beat the Packers with Jimmy G. The Niners beat the Packers with great defense and some good and/or incredibly lucky special teams play. Jimmy G did just enough to cost them the game, but the defense and special teams bailed him out. They won in spite of Jimmy G, not because of him in any way. You really want to have to try and count on your defense bailing you out and pure luck on a game to game basis?

Our defense and supporting cast on offense isn't nearly as good as SF's IMO. Our 2020 defense was mostly smoke and mirrors due to playing a very weak schedule, especially near the end of the season. We're definitely not a Jimmy G away from being a real contender. Jimmy G needs a team to carry him. We need a QB who can at least partially carry a team.

The problem with getting Jimmy G rather than a Trubisky or Mariota is that if we give up a 2nd round pick as well as likely give him a big new contract then there's almost no way they're going to be bringing him in purely as a bridge QB to a rookie. So we'll have to suffer through years of being a ho-hum boring team that is decent but never really has a chance to be true contenders. Then we have to start all over again from scratch. We're back to trying to judge longer term trends by one game, I see. The Packers are in the mix for a ring every single year. The reason is they have an elite QB. The Bengals have gone from bottom dwellers to a top team. The reason is they found an elite QB. The Bills have gone from a perennialy mediocre team to a powerhouse. The reason is they found an elite QB. Cardinals have done the same. The reason? Elite QB. Just because the Packers lost doesn't suddenly negate the fact that nowadays in order to be a contender year in and year out you need to have a franchise QB.

Jimmy G is a slow death for us. He's slightly better than Heinicke but still utterly mediocre. He's a guy who needs an absolutely stacked team around him to do anything of note. If we sign him we'll almost surely get between 2 and 4 years of mediocrity with him where we'll be a perennial 8-9 or 9-8 team. Then they'll finally get sick of his mediocrity and get rid of him, and by that time Rivera will likely be on the way out as well as some of our core players, meaning it would be time for a complete rebuild again. Hard. Pass. Looks like B Mitch agrees. Add: We should also assume, given his history, that he'll be spending some time on IR as well.

lol for guys who's teams win despite them, not because of them.

So what is your solution for the draft and QBs then? Just ignore it? Wait until we have the #1 overall pick at some point in the future? And it doesn't matter how much we're willing to offer...the other side has to be willing to deal. And the only top QB we might have a shot at (Wilson) has a no-trade clause and as of now we're reportedly not on his short list of teams. You're complaining about things but not offering realistic solutions.

Trade with who? Who exactly is it you think we're going to trade for? Also, this whole "well, it hasn't worked out for us in the past so we should stop trying" schtick is pure nonsense. It hasn't worked out for plenty of teams...until it did. Why? Because they kept trying. If you swing and miss on a QB in the 1st you try again. And then try again. It doesn't matter how many other pieces you have in place. They're borderline irrelevant because until you get your franchise QB you're never going to be a perennial contender. Again, literally every single team in the NFL knows this nowadays.

1) No hole matters much until you have a QB. Everyone in the modern NFL understands this these days. You can plug all the holes you want, but until you get a franchise QB you'll never be a perennial contender. 2) Sure, a trade for an elite QB would be great, but you have to have a trade partner for that and most teams are not going to part with top QBs. Outside of that, usually trading for a QB means you're getting another team's castoff, which basically never works. Who exactly are you hoping we trade for? So the bottom line is we absolutely have to find our QB. No amount of MIKE backers, wide receivers, corners, or offensive linemen are going to change the fact that you have to have that QB to be a contender year in and year out. And if we strike out with this 1st round QB pick guess what...we try again and again until we hit.

That's like saying playing blackjack is as a big of a crapshoot as buying a lottery ticket. But it's not...one of them has mediocre odds, the other has astronimcal odds. I really wish people would get off this kick of looking for franchise QBs outside of the 1st round. Finding those gems happens so rarely that it can essentially be ignored as a strategy. You draft QBs outside of the 1st with the hope that they'll become good backups at least or maybe even passable starters if you're super lucky. If something insane happens and you find a gem who ends up being a star, then that's amazing. But absolutely zero teams actually bank on that...which is why they keep picking them high in the 1st round.

The hit rate for 1st round QBs is WAY better than QBs taken after the 1st. Orders of magnitude better.

Yeah I've come around a bit on the Wilson thing to where I think there's a tiny chance, but still probably not going to happen. The most recent news I've read is that his short list includes the Broncos, the Saints, and NYG. He could possibly widen his list, as you've posted info from reporters who feel that he may be more open than someone like Watson. But my gut tells me NYG gets him. If they want him and are willing to pay up, nobody will be able to compete with their 2 top 10 picks (plus another 1st next year most likely). If you're a new GM and HC coming in that would be absolutely huge if you could bring in a future HoF QB in your first year. And I'm sure Mara would have no problem with it.