skinny21

Obviously there’s personal preference in terms of rating our draft - how we rate guys, did they give Daniels enough help, did they address OL adequately, etc.  

However, landing arguably a top 2 QB, a top 2 DT, a top 2 slot corner, and a top 2 TE… that’s promising to say the least.  I’ll add that I’m a fan of McGee and Hampton getting a chance to learn behind Wagner and Chinn.

One other note - this defensive staff has a lot of really interesting toys to play with.

Feels like this is a bit of a projection pick, but a safe one.  Considering he produced as he did while transitioning from qb, I think the staff knows that his short area quickness and quality hands, once coupled with improved route running/experience, should allow him to really flourish.  I think he’s in a really good spot with Crowder ahead of him.

I’ll defer to our more knowledgeable posters, but given his length, experience and issues with pad level, I find it a bit surprising he’s assumed to move to guard (broadly speaking anyway - obviously Peters said they see him at tackle… at least initially).

Not gonna lie, pretty shocked he went this early, but I’m for it.  With that short speed, I’m looking for quick separation, and combined with those hands, he’s gonna be a guy Daniels trusts/leans on sooner rather than later.  And having Crowder to compete with and learn from is a boon IMO.

As was mentioned in the draft thread, Payne and Allen need to be taking fewer snaps, and Newton essentially solves that.  Love the philosophy of both BPA and focusing on beefing up the interior/trenches.

Shen’s probably happy with this pick.  TE is such a wildcard in an offense that if he pans out, he’ll easily eclipse any thinking that we might have taken him a touch early.  I also think he went right around where many (at least for a time) had Sanders going.  I think Sinnot’s more of the whole package than Sanders.  Love the philosophy too, understudy to and competition for Erttz.

Man, lot of quality left…

9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Javon Foster and Christian Jones are the only two I would take going forward. The rest are UDFA's to me. 

We brought in Isaiah Adams for a 30 visit, right?

Edit:  oh, walked away for a few… looks like I’m behind the 8 ball, lol

I’d be especially tempted to trade for Aiyuk if we could pull off a pick swap instead, like 40 for either 63 or 94.  Equivalent of a ~3rd, but we don’t lose a pick.

Whether SF is willing to trade him, whether Peters thinks he’s a fit (culture-wise), and whether it’s worth going after a guy that’s demanding a trade is a different story.

Is Dejean or Kool-Aid a better fit for us?

1 hour ago, method man said:

I just don’t get good vibes about Sua. Something about him screams underachiever

Feels like we’ve caught a glimmer or a hint of that in reports.  Combined with his rawness, there’s a concern there for sure.  I guess I’d hope that surrounding factors can make a significant impact - hard-nosed guys around him, what looks to be a sea change in culture (hopefully for real this time), and coaching that DQ has emphasized must come from connecting to the player.  

Would like to add a high end pass rusher to help the other DEs challenge whoever our tackles are.

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

Thanks, admittedly I am largely "confused" at what the hell the rule changes mean, I just get the sense that they are trying to deemphasize collisions for player safety, and it would not surprise me if they got rid of it entirely except for field goals in the next decade. 

Bro, you and me both, lol.  

5 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

The talent available is not in the same "likely sure thing" zone as the best available guys. You reach for an OL here, you are reaching for a question mark. Everyone knew that there would be a huge OL run and it happened, nobody reached into round 1 the last 7 picks because the talent had already been peeled off. I suspect some teams will reach for OL in round 2, but there's not a lot of teams that are likely to do it at slot, the risk, if there is one, would be teams trading up, because most of the teams with big enough needs, already addressed it. Its just the Pats, Bears, Us and a few others, and if you're like me, you're just looking for the best available lineman, rather than position specific targets since OT got pillaged slot 5 through 29 w/Guyton. 

 

Play it smart, we need DB, WR, OT, G, TE, LB, we should be peeling off the best available talent at slot, and trading down if there are enough guys we like in a tier to justify the move. If the team is set on taking an OL in round 2, I'd suggest moving the 40 for a later 40 or early 50 slot pick and a late 3rd or day 3 pick (whatever is market value, I'm too lazy to look). Paul is probably the only OT worth 36th, and I don't see him good enough to justify passing on the DB and WR talent when there are another 2 or 3 guys I have around him in value at OT (as well as IOL guys). I really hope they trade down from 40 to recoup some round 4 capital in addition to whatever pick we get via moving in round 2. 

I’d add DE to your list.  I’d love to land one of these top ILBs, but I don’t love the value of taking one in the 2nd and having them sit until Wagner (and/or Davis) is gone next year.  Well, at least compared with taking one of the other spots that could contribute this year.  Now in the 3rd and beyond?  Sign me up

I think I’d be ok taking Paul or Suamataia at 36/40, but I’m also good with waiting on OT if guys like Dejean, Kool-aid and McConkey are on the board.

6 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Special Teams returned game seems on the precipice of being eliminated entirely. I like the guy and see him as one of the best values on the board, but the ST's piece, which was once a HEAVY reason for selecting specific guys on day 3 because that was a way you could justify their roster stashing is fading w/the deemphasis of ST's with rule changes for the safety of players. Not sure its donezo yet, but honestly, I'd ignore ST's value at this point long term anyway. Also I'd suggest not getting enamored with any specific guy, there's a reason the pay out for nailing picks at slot in futures betting gets higher here and its because boards start to get really different and really weird and team specific in terms of needs in positional groupings. I do agree that a DB or WR seems like the best value for pick though, with DeJean probably being the best value left along with McConkey. I'm very alarmed that multiple mocks issued this morning have literally every one we want getting peeled off 33, 34, 35 lol. Hoping those are based on mockers boards, and not on "talk on the street" about what the Bills, Cardinals and Pats are likely to do (and they may trade down too other than probably the Bills). 

My impression is that STs just got more important… or at least will lead to a change in how it’s approached.  So it kinda feels like teams will be scrambling to add guys that fit the new rules.  But yeah, definite de-emphasis on the “classic” return man.

26 minutes ago, CommandB11 said:

If he did that, i wouldnt be so upset about the pick. But he just doesnt do that. He checks his 1st read and then runs. He will be broken in half by the end of the 1st quarter of game 1.

There are plenty of concerns with Daniels, but 1 read and go isn’t one of them, IMO.

23 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

There's a QB thread and JD5 thread to discuss QBs. 

 

Unless you want to talk about drafting Milton or Pratt on day two, please keep it in those two other threads.

Oops, you’re right

For reference… Looking at 2nd-3rd (and some that may/will drop to, or belong in the 4th or even 5th), I combined PFF’s big board (through 120 or so), plus some additional guys that some on here are pretty high on… (note: I didn’t factor fit).

DE:  Kneeland, Braswell, Isaac, Trice, Booker, Kamara, Hunt, Ellis, Thomas, Soloman

WR:  McConkey, Mitchell, Polk, Wilson, Franklin, Coleman, McMillan, Baker, Walker, Corley, Burton, Malik’s Washington, Thrash, Cowing, Ainias Smith, Rice, Tahj Washington, McCaffrey

Corner:  Cooper, McKinstry, Tampa, Rakestraw, Lassiter, Sainristril, Melton, Jackson, Green, Abrams-Draine, Jarrion Jones, Phillips, Carson

Tackle:  Paul, Suamataia, Amegadie, Rosengarten, Fisher, Wallace, Puni, Goncalves, Jones, Lumea, Adams, Foster 

LB:  Cooper, Colson, Wilson, Trotter, Eichenberg, Liufau

S:  Nubian, Bullard, Hicks, Bullock, Taylor-Demerson, Kinchens, Vaki

RB:  Brooks, Corum, Wright, Benson, Irving, Davis, Lloyd, Tracy, Estime

TE:  Sinnot, Sanders, Stover, All, Wiley, Johnson

Obviously I didn’t include G (some of the tackles may move inside though) or DT, although I don’t know that we should rule them out (would be wild if we nab Newton at 36/40, lol).

52 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

His jukes are gonna take too long to do in the NFL.  He'll make a guy miss, but then get plastered by the 2nd guy, so he's gonna need to just get down or out of bounds.

 

The good thing is he's got enough acceleration that by the time the defense knows he's taking off he's gotten 10 yards.  And that's more than enough to move the sticks in the NFL even without him needing to make guys miss.  Just take the 8 yards and the 1st down.  The big 40 yard runs will happen, but he shouldn't be looking for them.

Completely agree with your main point - he needs to protect himself and not press too hard.  I’m not sure about his jukes taking too long though, unless I’m misunderstanding you - he doesn’t really throttle down much when juking (hence Peters using the term “slasher”).

Logan had an interesting point about him getting hit.  Not sure I fully understand/buy it (it’s tickling my few remaining brain cells though), but it was something along the lines of more mass, meaning more resistance, meaning more force absorbed 🤷‍♂️

(now that I wrote that, I feel like you posted some physics calculations a while back, so maybe you’re the one to talk to, lol)

11 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Just to clarify your statement, are you saying Jayden Daniels is worse than Howell? Even after including 5 years of control vs 2?

 

That's a big statement.

I assumed he was talking about Mariota…

32 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

He's going to need a lot more than that.  He also needs a great OL to make plays from the pocket.  Tyler Biadasz and a back up guard aren't going to get it done.

 

I don't understand how we can have gone through another whole regime and Terry McLaurin is still our only serious weapon on offense.  And our line got way worse.  We should have lucked into more than just Sam Cosmi in five years of trying to build the offense.

Probably the 5 best offensive players drafted by us in the last 5 years:  Terry, Cosmi, Gibson, Robinson… and then John Bates.  I mean, WTH.

I’d give honorable mention to Dotson and Howell, but then who?  Saadiq Charles?  Dax Milne?  Yikes.

20 minutes ago, HOF44 said:

Our last 2 number one picks combined weight has to be a record for minimum weight in the modern era. Assuming it’s Daniels

Like 2/3 of a Trent Brown combined, lol.

Fricken’ hell man, that brought tears to my eyes.  Loved watching that dude play.  Couldn’t be more deserved.

4 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I mean yeah. He was ~22 years old facing 19-20 year olds.

Don’t know that this will allay any concerns, but average prospect age this year is 23.24.  Average draft pick age last year was 24.11… both significantly higher than the previous 2 decades.  For reference, from 2000-2018, average age dropped from 22.6 to 21.7.

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

The point is QB's throw the play that is called. It is not their fault that the call was a screen. Holding play calls against their overall stats wont work. Screens are a big part of Riley's offense. So of course Caleb threw a ton of them. It still counts as a throw. Conversely screens werent really a huge part of the Michigan offence. 

Gotcha.  My point though is not to knock someone for throwing screens, but to say that McCarthy “airing it out” more than we might have thought could/should affect the whole “Harbaugh didn’t trust him” narrative.  

29 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

3rd-4th round feels insane for:  CB, DE, RB, WR.

 

Not saying all high end talent but good talent in that range IMO

 

I 100% get the angst over OT, but this ^ is why I’d prefer to trade back a bit with one (or both) of our 2nds versus trading up.  You could potentially land one of each of those, plus 2-3 other guys.  And then our 5ths can go towards 1) guys that fall, 2) raw, traitsy guys that can understudy for some of our 1 year deal FAs, or 3) pure depth/competition, perhaps even double dipping at certain spots.

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

"not counting screen passes" means his fact is worthless. Screens are a big part of the game. Ignoring them doesnt change that. 

I’m not sure I’m following.  I mean, I get that screen passes matter, but wouldn’t it, for example, be fair to ignore screen plays to better judge accuracy?  Now, I’d still wanna know how accurate they were on screen passes…

If two players throw the same amount of passes, but one throws a screen 10% of the time, and the other 40%, wouldn’t you question a narrative that says the first guy was asked to do less?  I’m not saying you should necessarily draw a conclusion from that info per say, but I’d at least say that data point seems to refute the narrative.

Ticket to the Draft podcast - Logan Paulson and Jason Something (the producer on Command Center?) did a 7 round Washington mock using PFF’s simulator (no trades).  More so than the prospects they chose, it was really interesting to hear the rationale/decision-making, including the discussion of other prospects they considered at each pick.  Wound up with -

1st: Daniels

2nd: Morgan and Tampa

3rd: Amegadjie, Benson and Kamara 

5th: Liufau and Theo Johnson

7th:  Frank Crum

Benson was a surprise to them, but was BPA (they also mentioned the new kickoff rules).  Marist learns behind Wagner.  Theo was a steal (they think he goes earlier - they considered him in the 3rd).  Major infusion to the oline.  They have Kamara significantly higher than PFF’s big board.  Weren’t thinking of looking at OT again at 67, but couldn’t resist with Amegadjie there (they considered him at 40).  I don’t love them missing out on receiver, though to be fair, they checked on them repeatedly.