e16bball

Thought Maye was pretty terrible for most of the first half of that game, especially taking into account the quality of the opponent. But I completely agree that over the last 35 minutes or so, he was doing everything in his power to drag UNC kicking and screaming to a win. It was like a tug of war game, with Maye on one side and most of the rest of the team on the other. And yet McCarthy gets credited for “leading” UM to victories and Maye gets crushed for “losing” that game.

If this is where they’re headed, we probably need to be on the phone with them about Garett Bolles, who’s set to count $20M against the cap in a contract year. I’ve been racking my brain to come up with an answer at LT, because the FA options are awful and the immediate starters in the draft will likely be gone by 36. Bolles might be the guy. He certainly has the athleticism to fit with what Kingsbury will likely be looking to do.

100% agree. It’s goofy to lump Micah Parsons in with Dremont Jones, and it’s even goofier to lump Fred Warner in with TJ Watt. As you said, there is approaching a 0% chance that any team will ever tag a 4-3 LB or 3-4 ILB ever again under this system.

Sort of a weird take, given that Maye has the lowest pressure-to-sack ratio of the top 3 QBs. And that — unlike the 4 QBs slotted behind him — he’s been one of the most pressured QBs in NCAA over the last two seasons, so the shell shock of being constantly under siege would be nothing particularly new to him. That transition to a sieve of an OL might go a little differently when you’ve gotten accustomed to clean pockets as a way of life, as has been the case for Daniels/McCarthy/Nix/Penix. Maye didn’t throw it very well under pressure last year, so it might be a more reasonable take that he’d just be bad if he was constantly under pressure? Although apparently that rarely translates cleanly from NCAA to pros. But taking tons of sacks? I think Daniels is the one you’re looking for on that front. His only chance behind a bad OL is going to be the threat of him taking off running, which might limit the blitzes and force some DLs to try to contain him rather than coming after him full speed.

I think the issue is that you’re using the term “Edge rusher,” which the league doesn’t use. They treat 3-4 OLBs as LBs, and they’re separated from the 4-3 DEs. It also appears they aren’t using contract extensions that kick in this year (which eliminates guys like Nick Bosa, Montez Sweat, Rashan Gary). So for the LBs, you have TJ Watt ($28M), Joey Bosa ($27M), Khalil Mack ($23.5M), Bradley Chubb ($22M), and Fred Warner ($19M). That’s where your $24M number comes from. And for the DEs, you have Myles Garrett ($25M), Maxx Crosby ($23.5M), Trey Hendrickson ($21M), Von Miller ($20M), and either Arik Armstead or Dremont Jones ($17M), which gives you the $21M number.

I don’t want to be a bearer of bad news, but that’s very (very) unlikely. That would come out to 51-85 first down receptions over the course of the season. And a total of zero TEs had 51 first down receptions last year. Kelce led the way with exactly 50, and only 12 TEs even had more than 30 first down catches. He got 6+ targets per game last season in ARI (a very big number), but he still only had 8 first down catches in 7 games. Not trying to hate on the guy, but I think it’s probably important to keep expectations reasonable for a 34-year-old coming off a really inefficient season (4.3 yards/target). The odds of him being a major cog in the offense — or even better than 2023 Logan Thomas — are pretty low.

That’s the type of player they drafted, for sure, but I think you have to keep in mind that they’re drafting players for a specific scheme/roster. The parameters of which are set by the coaches, at least in a place where Kyle Shanahan is running such a specific scheme. When they took Deebo and Aiyuk, they were a team built around a Shanahan run game and a QB in Jimmy Garoppolo whose only special trait is getting the ball out quickly and accurately in the short-intermediate range. From 2018-2020, the window in which they selected Deebo (2019) and Aiyuk (2020), they were never higher than 30th in Intended Air Yards per Pass and they ranked 1st in YAC per Reception each year. I think the lesson Peters would/should have taken from that experience is “shop for the groceries that your coach likes to cook with.” If Kingsbury is similar to Lil Shanny in wanting big, physical, YAC-oriented receivers, then I’d agree those are the guys to target. But I’m not exactly sure what Kingsbury wants, based on his background. I’m not entirely sure he knows what he wants, based on his background. He inherited Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk in ARI. They immediately drafted Andy Isabella in the 2nd (pure speed), Hakeem Butler in the 4th (crazy size/speed freak), and Keenan Johnson in the 6th (more the slow, physical, YAC type). They all failed. Then they trade for Deandre Hopkins. Then they draft Rondale Moore in the 2nd (speed, YAC type) and sign AJ Green, who replaces Fitz. Then they trade for Hollywood Brown, who replaces Kirk. It’s all over the map. The only thing I can conclude is that he appears to want a variety of “types” of receiver. We have two guys who are pretty similar in Terry and Dotson — if I was a gambling man, I would suspect he’s going to be looking for a receiver with some size, though it may well be more a jump ball type (Green/Fitz) than it will be a pure YAC monster like they had in SF. I still think AD Mitchell might be the best fit for him if we end up going WR at the top of the 2nd.

Daniels between now and his pro day:

I feel like you must understand that when a team throws the ball less (and runs the ball more) than pretty much every other power conference team, the QB’s efficiency numbers are often going to be inflated. Especially when they have legitimate NFL pass game talent all over the field, which Michigan definitely did (in addition to McCarthy, at least two NFL WRs and two NFL TEs). Perhaps for an example that we’re not all so close to at the moment, take the young Ben Roethlisberger. His first two seasons, the Steelers ranked first in the league in rushing attempts and last in the league in passing attempts. And Ben posted the highest adjusted completion and Y/A marks of his entire career in those seasons. In fact, by those metrics, he was basically better than any QB in the league not named Peyton Manning (and maybe Daunte Culpepper). Did Roethlisberger become a worse QB as he got older? Of course not. They started to ask him to do more, started to lean on the passing game more, and with greater volume and defenses that weren’t just geared up to stop the run, the efficiency went down. 2014 Roethlisberger was a massively better QB than rookie Roethlisberger — he was a genuine superstar — but you wouldn’t know it from the efficiency numbers. They’d still tell you that the rookie’s stats were better. In fact, the rookie’s efficiency stats would have said he was the best QB in the league not named Peyton Manning (or maybe Daunte Culpepper). This is a big part of what I mean when I keep saying he was playing a different game than everyone else. Throwing 22 passes a game while an elite run game is the center of your offense just isn’t nearly the same load that guys like Maye (35 attempts/game), Williams (32 attempts/game), or even Daniels (27 attempts/game) had to carry. Trying to make 1:1 comparisons between them based on efficiency stats is just absolutely ignoring that reality.

Sadly, “nuts” might be the key word with him. He can jump so well because he’s not weighed down by burdensome things like common knowledge and basic facts.

Looks like Tyler Owens doesn’t believe in gravity, either.

Yeah, I think we can say that about McCarthy’s one loss. TCU didn’t really belong on the field with the big kids, as we saw in that national championship game, and the primary reason they beat Michigan is because McCarthy put 14 points on the board for them via pick-6s. It actually sort of makes the point with McCarthy: as long as he wasn’t actively sabotaging them with major mistakes, Michigan won. They sidelined him for the entire 2nd half on the road against a top 10 team in PSU…and still won. He was absolutely awful the next week against UMD…still won. Terrible game against the Witherspoon/Quan Illini last year…still won. With Maye, if he played poorly, it was a guaranteed loss. UNC couldn’t win unless he carried them. In two years, they won one game (where he played the entirety) in which Maye had less than 294 combined passing/rushing yards. By comparison, McCarthy won twenty-two games over the last two seasons in which he had fewer than 294 combined passing/rushing yards. In one of the losses I assume you’re referring to (Ga Tech 2023), Maye dropped a line of 17/25 for 310 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs (198.6 rating) — and for good measure, added in 58 rushing yards and another TD on the ground. That would have been easily one of the 3-4 best games of McCarthy’s career. But UNC still lost, 46-42. His defense yielded almost 650 yards. What else was he supposed to do? They were not playing the same game, and they were not asked to do the same things in order to win, which I think makes it very difficult to compare their W/L outcomes in any meaningful way. The weird thing is that I’m actually higher on McCarthy than a significant majority of folks around here (and on the internet in general). If I was at 6 or 8 or 12, I’d give him a very hard look. No question about it. But I just don’t think it’s sound logic to try to compare McCarthy’s W/L record to other players as some sort of personal accomplishment. Not when his roster was so very stacked.

This is an interesting video to me, because the stats he’s highlighting are the exact opposite of the stats that PFF suggests are “stable metrics” that traditionally translate most cleanly from college to the NFL. For example, he’s citing stats when under pressure. But PFF has always stated that their analysis suggests that “clean pocket” stats are what translate best to the NFL. Same with the playaction stats — one of PFF’s stable metrics is actually passing on plays with no playaction, which they say translates better. And not that he had any stats for it, but he did reference McCarthy’s ability to make throws when he’s rolled out. And once again, the PFF stable metrics actually include passing on straight dropbacks as the more translatable measure. Just found that interesting, because of how starkly the two ways of prioritizing (and discarding) some of the different metrics contrast with one another. As you can imagine, using the opposite approach leads to the opposite outcome (PFF prefers Maye by a wide margin). The one place where I absolutely do have to push back on what he says in this video, though, is in comparing what McCarthy did in his high-stakes games against what Maye did versus his toughest opponents. That is a deeply rigged comparison. No matter who McCarthy played over the last two seasons, he went into every game with a better roster around him than the opponent. Maye? His roster was badly outclassed by teams like Notre Dame, Clemson, Oregon, etc. They weren’t playing at the same difficulty level in their so-called “toughest games.”

In 2016, the Browns traded out of the Carson Wentz pick (#2 overall) and then took Cody Kessler in the 3rd. They didn’t trade down the next year, they stayed put and took Myles Garrett, but they again passed on the top QBs (Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson) and then went for Deshone Kizer in the 2nd round. Which I think is similar in concept: passing on the top tier QBs to get value elsewhere and then circling back to lesser QBs later.

That semifinal was a crazy game for Trice. It’s hard to explain that a guy could still look like a terror (which he did) in a game where he got shut down by the guy he lined up against most (which he also did). Banks absolutely did handle him, but Trice still made a ton of plays when he was away from Banks. Saw some evals on Banks where they were worried about his arm length, but I saw what Trice did to a short-arm LT in Morgan. Hard to imagine Banks was able to control him that effectively, that consistently, with guard arms. He moves like a stud, that’s for sure.

Benkert lost me within the first minute of his Daniels segment. He announces that he’s only going to be watching highlight videos. Which, purportedly, is by design. He believes that “good NFL coaches can get college players to play up to their ceiling as often as possible.” So he’s “not going to try to judge him on his bad plays.” A few minutes later, he does a wonderful job of demonstrating why it’s a problem to evaluate guys based on their highlight films, as he sees a clip of a (great) run by Daniels, where he sort of pops out of bounds at the end. And Benkert notes that he’s “smart about not taking hits.” Oops. Anyway, there’s a lot of voices out there offering their “take” on the players. I’ll probably be looking elsewhere for my expert insight.

Trice is the guy that, if they land the Bryce Huff “LEO” guy in FA, makes a ton of sense for the other DE role, the one that’s been home to guys like Michael Bennett and Demarcus Lawrence. Love his hands, violent punch, just a brutally physical player. He ate up poor Jordan Morgan, got into his body and just drove him like a blocking sled at times. And I like Morgan as a player — but Trice looked to be on a different level when they squared off.

This is the one approach I think they can’t take. I think the two viable options are (a) take a QB at 2 or (b) trade down. The only players who can possibly be worth the price people will pay for QBs are…QBs. If we decide we don’t Daniels or Maye, it certainly appears there will be no shortage of suitors who do want them. Some team would likely pay a price comparable to the haul CHI got last year from CAR for the right to take their QB1/QB2 in our pick slot. Looking at a future 1st, plus maybe a couple 2nds. And a good young player? Whatever it is, it would be a rich return. No matter who your top non-QB is in the draft, they’re not worth that. I think Harrison and Nabers are great prospects, but if the choice is between Marvin Harrison Jr. and a package of several valuable assets, the choice has to be the picks every time.

Oh, I didn’t mean to imply it was unrealistic or isn’t going to play out that way — just saying it would suck if it does. I think barring some sort of combine debacle, Latham and Mims are probably close to 0% to make it to us at 36. I think there’s a fair chance that maybe one of Barton, Morgan, Chop, or Trice might get there though. To me, that’s the group I’d (realistically) be hoping to see at that pick. I agree with you about Morgan. I don’t see him being a better fit as a guard being a disqualifier though. I really like him as a guard, same as Barton. I know Beebe is a much-loved character on this board because he’s a “destroyer of worlds” and all, but I expect Kingsbury and Lynn likely will be installing a run game that will place a heavier priority on “maker of reach blocks” and “reacher of second levels.”

Pretty brutal run of picks for us if it goes that way. Watching Barton, Latham, Chop, Mims, Morgan, and Trice all come off the board in the 10 picks before we get back up would be excruciating.

I think that’s going to be an interesting eval for them. Great man corner in the college game, as those metrics make clear. You’d think they’re loving that. But he’s not big, he’s (apparently) not fast, and he had very little production in the sense of INTs. On film, the lack of ball skills is pretty clear — but the sticky coverage and the fact that the QBs are constantly turning down his guy when he’s the first read are also right there. I wouldn’t do it at 36/40. But if the combine drops him as folks expect, he might be atop the board at 67. That would be a very interesting decision for them, would be intriguing to see if they value the projection of a “currently lesser but higher ceiling” guy over a dude who pretty much locked everybody down in the SEC last year.

Christian Haynes is a guy to very strongly keep an eye on, I think. He doesn’t have the same dominant reps as a mauler like Beebe, but he really moves well. He’s great laterally, getting to those reach blocks and turning his guy, and there’s some serious burst getting to the second level (though perhaps not superhuman at targeting on those downfield blocks). Struggles some with pure size/power. Some of the real explosive guys gave him some issues in pass pro drills at the Senior Bowl, and Utah State had a real squatty NT type who got under his pads and drove him back a few times. But he held up really nicely against Michigan as a junior, which included Mazi Smith. Pretty much the only guy on his offense who looked like he belonged on that field with UM. I agree that that’s probably the type of OL we’re going to be looking for. It’s interesting, because ARI and LAC didn’t draft many OLs when Kingsbury and Lynn were the HCs there — but the 3 guys they did draft on day 2 were Forrest Lamp, Dan Feeney, and Josh Jones. All of whom are lighter, more mobile, positional blocker types. And all of whom kinda sucked, but hopefully that’s not something they’re actively seeking. They also brought in vets like Kelvin Beachum, Rodney Hudson, Mike Pouncey, and Russell Okung, who also generally fit that same sort of mold. I’d guess that when they put their heads together, it’s going to be a zone-oriented run game.

So you have them rated: Daniels Fields Williams/Maye I think the only way I could ever get them into that order is if I accidentally clicked “sort by PFF rushing score” on one of @Skinsinparadise’s spreadsheets.

Their defense is a fun watch. I’ve been a big Abrams-Draine fan, and Robinson just rag dolls guys at times. Not a lot of variety in his approach, but you sort of marvel at the pure physics of a man that size with that sort of explosion on the edge. Can tell you now, I suspect #8 (Ty’Ron Hopper) is going to jump off the screen for you a lot. Both good and bad. But he’s one of the few off-ball LB guys I’ve seen this year who flashed when I was trying to watch someone else — most of this group seems to fade completely into the background if you’re not specifically there for them.

To me, Chop Robinson is the number one eval that all of us need to prioritize after the Quinn signing. Quinn has always run with at least one undersized EDGE with big time twitch, burst, get off, explosion…whatever you want to call it. Bruce Irvin, Vic Beasley, Takk McKinley, Parsons. It’s an extremely high priority for him — Beasley was his first pick in Atlanta and Parsons was the first pick after he got to Dallas. In terms of that mold, and our draft range, I think Chop is a pretty clear match. Unbelievable get-off, and all the mocks seem to say he’s tracking towards a slide into the first half of the 2nd round. I haven’t watched him nearly enough to have a fully formed opinion, but he’s moved to the absolute top of the watch list.