e16bball

I think the sweet spot for OT is in the teens. You’ve got the 6 top OTs (Alt, Fuaga, Fashanu, Fautanu, Latham, Mims), and while I wouldn’t want to be the team that reaches for any of them in the 5-7 range, I’d be extremely comfortable with all 6 in the teens. Some might consider that rich for Mims, but I think he’s the best talent of all 6 — it’s just a much more risky profile. Reminds a bit of the profile with Darrisaw and his back issue. And then I’m pretty much out on OTs at their projected pick slot for a while, unless Jordan Morgan falls into close range at 36. I’d do a small move up for him, just because I think he could be a viable OT out of the box, and I think he might be an excellent OG in a zone heavy system down the road. I do not want to be the first team to dive into the pile of comparable developmental projects, which is what most mockers continue to do with us (Suamataia or Paul at 36…I hate that concept). Love JPJ and Barton if they make it into the late 20s, and would love the value on Haynes or Beebe (depending on where they’re going with the scheme) in the late 2nd. Where I think the value might become enticing again on OTs is with 78 or 100. At that point, I think guys like Blake Fisher, Roger Rosengarten, Javon Foster, Caedan Wallace, Dominick Puni, etc., start to feel like legitimate value bets. That seems like another sweet spot to me, and a much better play than trying to force it with Paul or Suamataia 40-60 picks earlier.

Did the coach elaborate on that at all? As in, what did he discover? I’m curious because I watched most of his 2021 season this afternoon, and it’s true, he was definitely a better runner last year than he was then. He was still good, and still dangerous — but it was a lot more 4-8 yard runs than the 15+ yard chunks he was ripping off seemingly every time in 2023. QB running is not something I typically bank on developing substantially with more experience, so I find interesting this notion that he “discovered” something. Was it something(s) specific that he worked on — or do we think it was more just about becoming a man amongst boys as he got older (but the average defender stayed the same age, yes they did)?

It always drives me crazy reading these “team personnel” pieces, just because you’ll see a lot of seemingly on-point stuff — followed by something so off the wall that you can only wonder if they’re lying or just don’t know what they’re talking about. I picked out one of the threads in the Daniels section that bothers me. Some NFL team executives apparently compared him to Russell Wilson and Bryce Young. What are the two traits Wilson and Young share? Well, (1) they’re both short and (2) their superpower is scrambling to create big pass plays. Jayden Daniels is tall and he almost never scrambles to create pass plays. Once he bails, he’s gone. He runs to run, he doesn’t run to buy time to throw. He’s like RG3 or Vick or early Lamar in that respect. He couldn’t be less like Russell Wilson or Bryce Young, except that Bryce is also painfully skinny. These are awful comps. But comps are hard, and in fairness, I don’t have a great comp for Jayden either. However, you keep moving on through the piece, and you get to the AFC scout talking about how his legs will “buy him time” to create and make plays. Which seems to suggest this is a genuine narrative that exists for some evaluators around this player. Maybe it’s just lazy word choice or falling back on scouting cliches. But these are the kind of things that matter. If Jayden had demonstrated the ability to consistently bail, buy time, and keep searching for plays down the field, he’d be a different and better prospect. The only thing you really see Jayden’s legs “create” is big runs with the ball still in his hand. Thinking, even in passing, that him being “mobile” means you’re drafting the Wilson/Mahomes ability to elude the rush and escape to a new platform behind the LOS to launch a bomb downfield — that’s how teams end up getting disappointed by the player they actually get.

Wisconsin was a top 20 scoring defense and right around 30th nationally in defensive efficiency. They weren’t slouches on that side of the ball (though their offense stunk), especially against the pass. Coming into the LSU game, they’d given up only 193 yards per game through the air. Nussmeier threw for almost 400 yards and 3 TDs in place of Daniels, despite playing about 3 quarters without Nabers. For the sake of comparison, Maye’s backup (Conner Harrell) took 7 sacks, threw 2 picks, and mustered a total of 10 points against a weaker WVU defense. In fairness, he played all 4 quarters without Tez Walker (if you consider that to be a bad thing). Obviously, as with all data, do with it what you will. It certainly doesn’t totally disqualify or invalidate Daniels in my book. But when one of the narratives here is that Daniels looked better than Maye primarily because of the quality of his supporting cast — there’s probably some meaningful corroborating evidence for that notion in the fact that his backup didn’t miss a beat when he stepped in, while Maye’s got throttled.

He sat out the bowl game, which is the point the original post was making. LSU still beat Wisconsin, scored 35 points with Nussmeier in at QB — without Jayden and mostly without Nabers. Turns out Brian Thomas, Kyren Lacy, and deeply underrated (and unutilized by Jayden) Mason Taylor is still a lot of weapons for any QB, and the OL was still elite. UNC, on the other hand, got thrashed by WVU without Maye.

This is the part I wish some of these folks would at least acknowledge. Just come out and say that you’re forming this preference based on 11 games. Or 12, since they all have learned that he torched Oregon as a freshman. You’re forming your opinion based almost entirely on 20% of the much ballyhooed 55 starts that helped him learn to be the best. Because no one wanted Jayden Daniels after the Florida State game this year. He had 45 starts under his belt at that point, and not a soul saw this brilliance simmering under the surface. He was in the mix with guys like Spencer Rattler and Michael Pratt and Devin Leary and Jordan Travis for Day 3 consideration. And the lightbulb goes on for 10 games and the choir of angels is singing in the background of his film. And now he’s firmly ahead of Drake Maye. Who has somehow, and I’m not kidding about this, seen his stock plummet based on his last two games. Don’t believe me? After his first 10 games of 2023, he was sitting at 65.8% and 9.0 YPA, with a 157.4 passer efficiency rating — slightly lower completion percentage, significantly higher YPA, basically identical efficiency as compared to his first season. In a new system, with worse receivers and worse OL play. He has a mediocre game and a bad game on the way out, and the narrative becomes “Drake took a big step back in his second year.” If you only watched these guys from late September until late November 2023, sure…you could absolutely conclude that Jayden is the better player and even the better prospect. But you’d be totally ignoring years worth of data, years when there was absolutely thought of Jayden being an elite prospect or being ahead of Maye. Which, I think, is why a lot of us who didn’t just start following these prospects in January are a bit confused.

Don’t know that I necessarily see a particular draft pick where it makes sense for us to take him after bringing in Ekeler — but I just spent some time on Troy Franklin, and good lord do I love Bucky Irving. So much Sproles in that kid. Just impossible to bring down with the first man if he’s got time to get you lined up. So quick, so compact, exceptional finisher for a little guy. He’ll end up on some team like Houston and will absolutely convert a few 3rd downs in big games for them before it’s said and down.

Agree with this. Have been seeing a lot of basketball analogies lately, and cluttering the short-intermediate zones feels akin to having a big center tethered to the basket and clogging the lane when your PG is an elite driver and finisher at the basket. You have to give him space to operate, which means being able to spread things out vertically and horizontally to create lanes for him. I’m not a Corley fan anyway, but wide receivers who do all their work at or near the LOS will compress things too much for Jayden to really be able to stretch his legs. He’s a bit of a tough guy to get weapons for, because he needs a lot of traits. I think he absolutely needs guys who can separate and win quickly within play structure — because he doesn’t really improvise as a passer. He wants to throw the ball within the play design, and he isn’t big on throwing guys open, so you need guys who can show *open* quickly without free-lancing. You also want to have guys who have vertical speed and ball tracking to unlock the deep throwing ability, which has been his other A trait since he was a freshman. We saw the slot fades and whatnot at LSU, but he was throwing that beautiful arcing deep ball all the way back as a freshman. The problem is that if you can separate quickly and provide a dangerous deep target, you’re usually a very high-end talent. Someone like Justin Jefferson is the prototype for what you want for Jayden (which makes his situation worth monitoring, btw). Not too many Day 2 guys are great at both. Legette and Tez Walker are excellent deep targets, of course, but they’re both very unreliable in terms of separating. McConkey and Pearsall are elite separators, but they’ve never shown much ability to get on top of defenses. The one trait I would drop from significant consideration is size/contested catch ability. If you’re not open, Jayden isn’t going to throw it. That’s probably both a compliment and an insult, but either way, it’s true. There’s no sense investing in some burly, big-body box-out brawler or high-flying leaper when he just isn’t going to put the ball up for grabs like that. My initial thought for best fit for Jayden in R2 and beyond that is Troy Franklin. Elite deep ball guy, also has more ability than some guys in that profile (ahem, Dyami Brown) to uncover underneath with good releases and some nice route touches. He’s always open on slants, it feels like. He’s even skinnier than Jayden, but at some point…maybe that’s just who we’re gonna be. If you want to be physical and imposing, you maybe don’t choose Jayden Daniels as the QB. Could see the fit with either of the Texas guys, but I don’t think they make it to us. Other than Franklin, I think Roman Wilson is probably a good fit with Jayden. I’d kinda like the fit with Jalen McMillan, who has an array of skills and also likes to block (an underrated aspect, given that the big runs downfield get bigger if the wideouts put in work). Later on, I like Tahj Washington as a separator and YAC demon who also blocks. Little guys like Anthony Gould and Jha’quan Jackson would be fun, just for the electricity factor.

Two separate columns because they changed the formulation entirely for 2021, supposedly to incorporate more recognition of mobility/running ability (in light of the early emergence of players like Allen, Jackson, Murray, etc.). I don't think the outcome percentages are totally comparable between the two models, either, but they do provide a rough way to compare between the two columns. I combined the percentages for Bust + Adequate Starter, as well as for Upper Level Starter + Elite. My thought is that anything less than an upper level starter is a failure for us in our current circumstances. Drafting some sort of Derek Carr or Andy Dalton would be as good as a "bust," in my book at least.

I would find it genuinely concerning if it’s still a wide open ballgame at this stage in the process. You are college football talent evaluators. That’s your job. These guys have all been on the radar for 4+ years as potential draftable QBs, but for at least the last year or two, it’s been clear that these 6 guys were pretty much going to make up the 2024 class. You’ve watched every snap they’ve ever taken on the All-22, of course, dozens of times. But more than that. You’ve also watched all the film you can get of their practices. You’ve met with all of them at least twice. You’ve watched them at the Senior Bowl or the Combine or their pro day. You’ve talked to their college coaches and teammates. You’ve talked to opposing coaches and players. You’ve sent the PIs out to talk to everyone from their hometown and college town — their families, teachers, high school coaches/teammates, ex-girlfriends, one night stands, neighbors, cops, bartenders, best friends’ moms, the guy who ran the weight room. You’ve crunched all the analytics and the player tracking data. You’ve had your doctors and biometrics people weigh in. You’ve crowdsourced via hundreds or thousands of discussions about them with your trusted colleagues from other teams. And you and the whole personnel staff have hopefully spent virtually every waking moment for the last half-year dissecting them from every angle. If you've acquired all that data and done all that analysis — and you’re still thinking that it will all come down to one day’s worth of meetings a week before the draft? That’s a problem. Frankly, if you learn anything “new” about them at those meetings, that’s sort of a problem, because it means your process was incomplete or inaccurate. As it was termed by a poster yesterday evening, the job should be “someone’s to lose” by now. The meeting with that guy should just be about confirming what you already know.

That’s a tougher question to answer. The minimum number is probably about a dozen drinks for a man of 360 pounds to get to a 0.125 — but given that most people consume drinks over a lengthy period of time, and thus are eliminating alcohol while they’re ingesting more, the answer for him on that particular day is almost assuredly higher than that. How much higher would depend on how long he’d been drinking. And you’re absolutely right, it is completely unacceptable. I think there’s something to be learned from how young people respond to making such a dangerous decision — but it’s not a great sign that he was either unwilling or unable to tone down the drinking/partying in the lead-up to the draft. Not to put too fine a point on it, but the word out of Texas on him (“class clown,” “party guy”) even before this seemed to suggest there’s a reason he carries 365+ pounds — and it’s not just that he’s big boned. I think there’s a big red flag here at this point, just in terms of self-control and willingness to do what it takes (including sacrificing what you want to do for what you need to do). I really enjoy watching him play, because he’s really a dynamic player for his size. Surprising burst, impressive ability to get skinny. But I don’t think he’s for us. They are pushing leadership very hard in this early “re-calibration” stage, and more importantly, Quinn (or someone) apparently had even Mazi Smith lose a bunch of weight to play in his defense last year. I don’t think they’re looking for jumbo DTs.

Alcohol is eliminated from the body at a pretty consistent/uniform rate. Assuming he didn’t consume the alcohol very close in time to the accident, you’d expect his BAC to have dropped by about .020 to .025 over the course of 87 minutes. Fairly safe back of the napkin estimate that he’d have been around a 0.125 to 0.130 at the time of the accident. Not good, but not outrageous (among the subset of drunk drivers). For reference, the Maryland MVA treats a 0.15 BAC as the dividing line denoting a “high” BAC (and carrying additional administrative penalties).

To close out the Rams draft, the goal is pure upside. The scouts have canvassed the globe and finally, in the great white North, they have unearthed the rough gem that the coaching staff will polish into the next Jordan Mailata. To say he is a monstrous man is selling him a bit short. He measures over 6’7 and 352 pounds, with arms checking in at 35.5” and hands that presumably could palm Mercury. Somehow this leviathan burned up the 40 yard dash in 4.96 seconds at his recent pro day, in addition to a 33.5” vertical (at, once again, 352 pounds). He is a former basketball player who only came to football about 4-5 years ago, but he is undoubtedly one of the most remarkable and dominating athletes on the planet. We will all wait to see what he becomes. With the 254th pick, the Los Angeles Rams select Giovanni Manu, OT, University of British Columbia I believe that puts @KDawg on the clock!

With their last pick of a fruitful 6th round, the Rams are looking to the future of their OL. Alaric Jackson and Rob Havenstein hold down the fort for now, with Joe Noteboom as a fine swing tackle behind them, which gives the team some freedom to take a swing on a project with a high ceiling. And speaking of high ceilings, you’d need to have them in any house meant to contain this guy. Checking in at over 6’8, he lit up the combine with his 4.94 40 (featuring a best-in-class 1.69 10 yard split) and his luscious, flowing strawberry blonde mane (which he refers to as his “lettuce”). Watching him against Texas, you see the potential. The pass pro technique needs some work, but he has the tools — and he looked fully capable of moving Power 5 bodies around in the run game. With the 217th pick, the Los Angeles Rams select Frank Crum, OT, Wyoming

Still looking to add to the defensive front 7, the Rams will opt for a traditional inside linebacker with this pick. A physical thumper who is tight and a bit limited athletically, but plays with force and heavy hands. Extremely productive, amassing 21 sacks and 31 TFLs as a MIKE since 2021, there’s a little bit of an Ivan Pace feel to his downhill style. With the 213th pick, the Los Angeles Rams select Nathaniel Watson, LB, Mississippi State I believe that puts @WelshSkinsFan and the Bengals on the clock!

I believe that puts @ComManDersFan57 and the Eagles on the clock!

The 6th round of this draft goes through Los Angeles, and the Rams are glad to add another player they’ve had their eye on for a while. This guy is a smooth operator who gets by less on physicality than on quickness and instincts. He is surprisingly long for his height, and he uses that advantage to be disruptive at the catch point. He’ll likely sit behind Tre’Davious White as a rookie — is there a better player for a shorter/slight but long armed zone CB to learn from? Fitting that he goes directly on the heels of Bub Means, with whom he surely clashed at times in practice. With the 209th pick, the Los Angeles Rams select M.J. Devonshire, CB, Pittsburgh

Great minds think alike 🙂 I’ve sweating him out since my last pick in the mid-5th — glad that I lucked out and happened to be ahead of you guys who were also on him. TE isn’t a big need for LAR, but I really like the profile.

Sorry, was trying to submit my pick at my kid’s lacrosse game, and then he got put back in before I finished 😂 I believe that puts @goskins10 and the Atlanta Falcons on the clock

The Rams believe that the formula for unearthing hidden gems at TE typically consists of the combination of high-end athletic traits and physicality as a blocker. This guy brings both in spades. He’s most noted for his blocking, which is sensible at 6’5 and 271 pounds. But he lit up the combine across the board (9.92 RAS), including a 4.64 40 with a best-in-class 1.55 10-yard split. Also saw a bit of his attitude in the fact that he was the only TE to compete in every one of the athletic tests (concluding with 28 bench reps). It’s a crowded TE room, but the new kickoff rules will likely carve out an extra roster space for physical, athletic guys like this. With the 196th pick, the Los Angeles Rams select Tip Reiman, TE, Illinois

Miami has him listed as part of the 2024-25 roster on their website.

Abrams-Draine is a big favorite of mine. I actually think he’s better than Rakestraw — or at the very least, their prospect value is comparable. Which, to shamelessly steal your terminology, means I’d have Rakestraw at least half a peg lower than consensus and Abrams-Draine half a peg higher. I think they should both be slotting in the late R2 area. The thing that’s most promising to me about him is that he’s a pretty recently converted WR, which speaks to ball skills and speaks to the potential for continued growth from a technique/savvy standpoint. Smooth mover, competitive on contested balls…if he was 15 pounds heavier, I’d probably have him on the fringes of the R1 group.

You definitely notice him when watching any Miami games. He makes his presence felt, loudly. I’ve seen Dad Taylor-Demerson climbing the boards steadily over the last month or so, he’s got some helium. Based on your take on him, I’d wager the lack of legit post safeties is making him a fairly hot commodity. Definitely a need for a Quinn defense. Maybe at 78 or 100?

I think we’re squarely in prime long-snapper territory now, so the Los Angeles Rams are looking to move aggressively up the board.

You’re up now, sir! 👍🏼