e16bball

He’s another older player, 6th year senior who will turn 25 in the middle of next season. I see a lot of the same things you do in the highlights, and that elusive rating is off the charts — but I have a sneaking suspicion that a slightly built WR-turned-RB may not be quite NFL ready in pass protection. No idea if that’s true, as there’s nothing out there to watch on it, but that would be an educated guess. And it would be a big problem at his age and position, as you’d need him to be pretty much plug-and-play. He’s at the Shrine Game this week, so perhaps that will provide some more information. Also there, incidentally, is Jonathon Brooks. Much like you, I think he’s pretty impressive every time I watch the Horns. Well-rounded player, love the contact balance and he’s got some breakaway speed. Pretty soft hands, too. I don’t know how far the knee injury will drop him (it obviously dropped him to the Shrine game), but at a certain point on Day 3, that’s a dart throw I would make. Still just 20 years old, so his timetable matches up kinda nicely with Robinson’s, in the sense of being able to replace him in a couple years.

I hadn’t seen much from him there either. But in watching Alabama, I thought the endzone view of his long TD was very impressive ball tracking in the air.

I can only imagine how much you would have vomited if they had selected guys like Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Love, Goff, etc., with their middling college success against mediocre competition. Obviously, they’d be much better off scouting the Heisman ceremony and the pass efficiency rating leaderboards for prospects, right? The point is not to figure out who played the best last season. It’s to figure out who will play the best 5 seasons from now. Sometimes those two things overlap…but very frequently, they don’t.

Interestingly, Daniels himself regressed in his second and third seasons. But he fortunately got the opportunity to transfer to a powerhouse school and play two more seasons with an all-star cast, and he took advantage with an elite final season to put himself in this discussion. One can only imagine how Williams/Maye would look if you gave them two more years in college — and an A+ roster around them. I wonder if they’d show the intangible qualities of dedication and ability to learn as well.

I feel like I’m basically the “birth certificate” guy here, because half my posts seem to be about age, but I think one thing that’s especially appealing about JPJ is that he doesn’t turn 21 until next week. He won the Rimington, in his first season as a full-time college center, playing the whole season at age 20. That speaks to a lot of upside, especially as it compares to someone like Van Pran, who is a couple years older and has a couple more years as a full-time starter already under his belt. Maybe less polished or mentally ready — but in terms of what he’ll become over the next decade, the ceiling feels a lot higher. Per his Oregon bio, he was pretty much a blue-chip recruit: UA All-American, consensus top 2 center in his recruiting class. Which also speaks to upside. And just a little bonus that I found really interesting, he actually started at DT for them against Oklahoma in their bowl game his freshman year. That’s a pretty damned athletic kid. As @Going Commando mentioned in an earlier, I’d rather land an OT at 36 if there’s a somewhat comparable talent. Outside of some pretty rare exceptions, you’re just not finding good starting OTs outside the top 50 picks or so. If the position isn’t totally picked over, that’s likely where we should be looking — especially given the depth of talent in this draft. But if there’s some mega-run that we aren’t able to get in on, I’d absolutely have JPJ on the shortlist with each of the early 2nd rounders.

I watched some of him from back at Arizona State the other day, and even then his deep ball was absolutely remarkable. He can drop it in over the top better than most guys you’ll ever see. He’s still QB3 for me, in large part because I think Maye is also very, very good at dropping those deep balls out of the sky, so he doesn’t pick up as much ground on QB2 as you’d think. I also feel like the ability to make the mid-range throws (let’s say 10-25 yards) proves to be more important than the deep balls at the NFL level, and I think Maye substantially exceeds him on those. But the deep throw is absolutely a superpower for Daniels.

On the topic of the Mizzou defense, I actually think the other starting CB, Kris Abrams-Draine (#7), and one of their LBs, Ty’Ron Hopper (#8), merit watching for Day 3 as well. Abrams-Draine is (stop me if you’ve heard this before) very skinny, but he is feisty and he’s definitely got some ball skills. Smooth, effortless mover. Seems he was a WR and QB in HS, so he’s somewhat new to the position but that offensive background probably serves him well to some extent. All-SEC player, 2nd-team All-America, and what appears to be a very high PFF grade for this season. Hopper is a guy who flashed so much against K-State when I was trying to watch Beebe that I had to rewind to the beginning and just focus on him. Will need some serious work, he makes as many bad plays as good ones — but he makes a lot of good ones. Very splashy, very explosive. In that game alone he shows off serious range to the sidelines and some major pass-rush capability as well. He’s got some instincts as well, but perhaps not much discipline — frequently overruns or takes himself out of the play. Still, a college LB who pops that much on a good defense is probably worth a late flyer.

Joe appears to be the sort of “analyst” who watched 11 Caleb Williams games, spanning presumably between 400 and 500 pass attempts, and witnessed a grand total of TEN throws that he deemed to be elite. Which I think, for anyone who has watched Caleb Williams play, gives some meaningful insight into his “analysis.” I would imagine he’s the same sort of analyst who “saw this coming” for Patrick Mahomes this year, because he “never really got the hype.”

He only threw 5 total INTs all year, and he never had a game with less than a 55% completion rate, so…I’m not sure your numbers are quite accurate.

Was it not clear I was referring to throwing against pressure from 4-man rush? I actually think Maye had a good RB as well in Hampton. But it’s not the point about the injured RB that matters — it’s the fact that now Penix can’t stand there comfortably and work his progressions, and all of a sudden the accuracy/placement is spotty and the decisions are shaky and the bailing-out throws are coming. Which happens to every young QB when they’re seeing consistent, heavy pressure — even ones who have been playing college QB since Kirk Cousins was still a Redskin. It just highlights the point that trying to compare these guys one-to-one based on stats or metrics is mostly a waste of time. If Penix had been under siege all year like Williams and Maye were, he wouldn’t have looked nearly so clean on paper. That’s become pretty clear so far this evening.

Which means now he’s playing the same game Williams and Maye were playing all year…

I think one of the major problems is that we have a lot of folks (not just you) comparing a guy who is in his 6th year of college football — 5th year as a starter — to a guy in his 2nd year as a starter. Perhaps it’s worth asking how Michael Penix looked in his second year as a college starter (3rd overall). You’d have to go all the way back to a time when they were playing in empty stadiums. No one was calling him a surefire top 5 pick back in 2020, and not a soul considered him one of the best prospects in the past decade, as many are saying about Maye at the same stage in his career. The trick here is that we aren’t trying to figure out who was the best player this past season. That’s for the Heisman voters. What we’re trying to do is figure out who is the best bet to be a star in the NFL five years from now. Those are both very complicated questions — but for the specific mystery we’re trying to solve, the fact that Penix/Daniels/Nix are all 2-3 years further along the development curve than Williams/Maye is a really substantial clue.

He’s already stated he’s going back to school, unfortunately, so he’s a next-year prospect. Will be a potential 1st rounder in 2025, I’d wager, though probably more of a latter-half “if he takes another step forward” guy.

I have to say, it’s a little surprising to me that the draft folks don’t hear the (unspoken) subtext in their discussions about Daniels. ”He’s the most improved player in the country (in his 5th year as a full-time starter). He looks like a man against boys on some of his scrambles (because he’s 3-4 years older than many of the defenders he’s playing against). His processing speed and pocket presence have really improved this year (when he had 10 seconds to throw). He was great at dropping in deep balls to his receivers (who were both stars and the best group in the country).” Maybe Jayden works out — he had an awesome season, and I was very intrigued with him during his freshman year. But there are a lot of pretty familiar red flags there. And I have a hard time seeing him compared to Lamar Jackson, who was a 20-year-old true junior in his last college season, basically singlehandedly dragging a pretty moribund roster to relevance. Lamar had won an NFL MVP by the time he was Jayden Daniels’s age.

This is a big part of the concern I have with the way folks are talking about these QBs. There is a very substantial age/experience gap between the two groups of top QB prospects. Nix, Daniels, and Penix are all FIVE year college starters. Each of them became the “flagship” QB at their first school in 2019. Conversely, Williams and Maye were both in their junior year of high school at that time — and both had their entire senior seasons wiped out by COVID. Nix will be 24.3 by the time OTAs start, Penix will be 24yo and Daniels will be 23.5yo. Williams will be 22.5yo and Maye will be only 21.7yo. In other words, the Nix/Daniels/Penix group is a couple years older (and more physically developed) and has had about double the high-level experience and coaching. You really can’t overstate the advantage that gives them in one-on-one comparisons with the younger guys. I’d hope their processing and detail work would be more advanced, as would their mechanics. But a lot of the analysts, particularly PFF guy, seem interested in trying to determine who is the better player right now — when the actual question is which will be the better player in 2027. The fact that the two young guys are already comparable or better players suggests very powerfully that they are easily the better bets for future value. Imagine where they’ll be in a couple years, with more physical development and continued high-level coaching and on-field learning. I think it’s a little wild that some of these old QBs who had to bail out of their first schools are starting to get slotted ahead of Drake Maye.

I actually think this explains a good bit, because I was really wondering why you’re so low on him. I would say ‘23 Louisville is easily his worst film, probably in his whole career. I have no idea what was going on with him in that one — he looked awful for large chunks of that game. Off-balance and frankly a little lost. The former walk-on EDGE just bulldozing him for his first sack allowed in 2 years was shocking to see — I think he actually did wake up a little after that. I honestly wonder if he had some sort of rib injury or something, because I just watched the game again, and he does look short-armed. But he typically doesn’t look that way, which was a big part of what made it so startling a performance. I don’t think he was nearly as bad in the ‘23 OSU game, particularly considering the level of competition (running two top 50 picks plus Jack Sawyer at him on a rotating basis all game). But Tuimoloau did get in his kitchen a couple times, no way around that. There are a lot more ND games than just those few on YouTube, I’d be intrigued to see if you feel the same way if you see a couple more. Louisville is the worst of him, so I suspect you might see a little bit more of the appeal in some of these other games. Of all the guys in this draft, I think he’s probably the easiest projection in my mind. He feels like the next in the line of tall LTs who are good-not-great athletes, have good feet and good length, and are somewhat limited in terms of lower-body explosion and pop in their hands — Taylor Decker, Taylor Lewan, Kolton Miller, etc. Guys who are more “very good” than actual “stars,” but who are no-doubt long-term starters at a premium position. I don’t love that in the top 5, but in the latter area of the top 10, that high floor starts to look awfully appealing.

I think 32 + 49 from PIT is probably the most realistic excellent trade option out there. For a team looking to reload quickly (as I assume they are), the chance to get two guys they favor at their top pick might be enticing. Walk away with Darnell Wright and Joey Porter? Might be appealing to them. Maybe you could find a way to get HOU to bite on Hooker? If they went Anderson/Wilson at 2 and Smith-Njigba at 12, that would set them up very nicely to gamble on Hooker. Maybe they would do 33 + CLE’s 2024 1st. That’s fairly similar to what they did previously to land Watson (pick 25 and future 1st for pick 12). I think we need to be careful setting the sights much higher than that. Some of these dream scenarios (29 + 40) are just going to lead to disappointment when they do one of the actual trades that will be on the table. Unless one of the top 4 QBs falls, I don’t think anyone is going to substantially overpay for our pick.

If we could combine Kyle Van Noy and Lukas Van Ness into one player, that would be an absolute dude and I would immediately support him as BPA at 16…

One of the things that continues to stick out like a sore thumb when looking at all the media projections is that we have two picks (#16 and #97) that seem to fall outside of the sweet spot(s) for us in this draft based on the talent available. At 16, it looks we’re a bit late for the top OLs and CBs (and QBs, for that matter). Assuming that Paris/Skoronski and Gonzalez/Witherspoon are off the board, we’re sitting at the top of the perceived second tier at both positions. We’d likely have our choice of any of the TE/RB options — but the value there is iffy, at best. It seems almost self-evident that moving down ten picks or so would position us better. That much is borderline consensus, it appears. Less discussed, as far as I can tell, is that 97 is looking like it could be a real dead zone for our most prominent needs (specifically OL, CB, EDGE, TE, LB). The OL depth is not impressive, and it will likely be picked thin by that point. You’re clearly out of range for the top 5 TEs and the top 2 LBs there. And CB and EDGE are deeper, but you’re still probably looking at the 4th tier of guys at each of those positions. As important as I think it is to trade down from 16, I think it’s similarly critical to find a way up from 97 into that late 2nd/early 3rd range. The best value for us in this draft looks to be between about pick 25 and pick 70. If we can maneuver our picks into that range, I think there’s a very good chance we come out with 3 great bets in the first two days.

Sorry in advance for the long post! I actually did a full-scale research project in college where I took exactly that approach. The folks who funded the grant for the sake of *academia* weren’t thrilled that I chose to do my project on the NFL draft, but…what can you do? I think your approach to quantifying BPA is pretty much dead-on, and definitely not just because it hits the three major factors that I used in my analysis at that time as well (player rating, positional value, team need). I think that’s how you answer the most appropriate question, which is “who is the best player available for me?” Some tricky things that I throw out just for consideration. The biggest thing I always struggled with was “fit.” How does that factor in? We all know from evaluating players that all guys at a particular position are not created equal, and some fit different schemes much better than others. In terms of both positional value and team need, some players who at least nominally share a position are going to be more valued than others and more of a fit for particular teams (e.g., 3-tech vs. NT or true X receiver over slot-only). It makes you want to sort of put your thumb on the scale when doing the player evaluations to smooth out the stuff that doesn’t quite fit. The only answer I was ever able to come up with is to be as specific as possible in defining the positions for both positional value and team need. If you’re able to really dig in and separate out the Fs from the Ys and the nickels from the outside CBs, it removes some of the need to ding (or credit) guys for their specific role/fit value when doing the evals. The game is much more specialized and nuanced than it was back when I was doing this back in 2005ish, so I think it’s even more important — but your background in coaching might make it a lot easier for you to manage that. The other issue I ran into was with defining need. When I did it, I just stuck with one score for need — which was heavily focused on “what do you have right now?” But really, as we’re seeing with DE in this draft cycle for example, being set right now isn’t the same as having no need. So do you want to have two scores for need (current and future)? Or three (immediate, middle-term, and long-term)? And if so, how do you balance those scores? And do you try to replicate the reality that most NFL drafters seem to skew heavily towards targeting immediate needs early in the draft (where your plug and play guys typically live) and more towards longer-term needs later on (where more of your straight-up developmental guys are found)? Anyway, just throwing a few things out there to take into consideration if you do take the plunge and try to quantify things. I would love to see it — not many people I read on the internets watch as much film of guys across the board as it seems you do, and it’d be a lot of fun to see how it turned out with your coaching eye added to the process.

I love reading your stuff, and this particular statement is one of your more moderate observations on that game, so it’s an odd time to raise this particular issue. But I think in the past, you’ve characterized that matchup as Bresee whipping Wright’s [tail], and having just watched the whole game, I don’t think that’s a fair assessment of the matchup. To be fair, Bresee absolutely did whip him a couple times early on. And I think it was exactly what you referenced: some initial shock at that kind of extraordinary burst on a guy Bresee’s size. He beats Wright a couple times right out of the gate, and things look a little grim. Bresee gets him on an inside move on the first 3rd down of the game, and he does it again for a QB hit on the next drive. Wright overset and left that inside path wide open for the taking. Bresee also makes Wright miss on a run block earlier on, although he then returns the favor by whiffing on the back. After that big initial edge for Bresee, though, Wright pretty much controls him the rest of the way. Bresee makes a couple more plays, but those were on games or loops where he ends up matched against various IOLs. Maybe some of that is due to Bresee’s conditioning, as he was much more effective on his first rep after a break than he was thereafter, and his effort level definitely seemed to wane. But either way, Wright mostly handled him after the 1st quarter, to the extent that Bresee starts to get visibly frustrated by the 4th. He even gives Wright a half-hearted shove in the back at one point, because Wright was giving him the business (verbally as well as on the field). I have my issues with Wright too. The jump set thing is odd, though it does work for him pretty regularly. The little hands are also pretty evident, it’s almost like he’s repeatedly punching dudes when sustaining blocks. And I also see what you’re referring to as “lazy,” although to me it feels like he’s just doing enough to complete his responsibility on the play — maybe that’s just two ways of saying the same thing. There is one play that stands out for me, in terms of effort, where he chases down Kool-Aid McKinstry on an INT return and drives him out of bounds. I think the pick got called back due to DPI, but Wright didn’t know that at the time. If Kool-Aid scores there, that game is over. That impressed me in terms of effort. I don’t see him as a top 10 OT. But I think he’s a solid, pretty high-floor guy to take in the middle of the 1st. I’d rather move down and target Harrison/Jones in the late 20s, in order to pick up ammo to bring in more pick volume. But if they’re stuck at 16, I’d be at peace with Wright there.

On the topic of late-round backs who run angry, I think Mohamed Ibrahim (Minnesota) has a slashing style with a tinge of violence that’s always fun to watch. He’s an older prospect and was not used much as a receiver (though he looks okay at it), but he was super productive, he has a nice burst, and he sure delivers a blow.

This is pure (read: wild, likely irresponsible) speculation on my part, but T. Walker is a guy who played on a defense with about 6 other guys who might be on our radar at positions of need on Thursday and Friday — between Dean, Davis, Cine, Q. Walker, Tyndall, Wyatt. Is it possible/plausible that they would view a guy like T. Walker as an excellent source of insight into these other guys who might be on our board? He’s got very little at stake in an interview with us, at this point, because he’s going to be gone well before our pick — so is there some potential to glean candid observations about his old teammates from a private interview like that? Certainly would be very helpful to have some ground-level data on these guys and their football character, etc. Perhaps that would be worth utilizing one of their 30 visits, given the basically unprecedented number of potential targets he suited up next to for years.

The $20ish M was already built into the expected 2022 cap figures, so that didn’t add anything to what we expected them to have. They were expected to have ~ $33M in cap space. A good amount. But adding Wentz and his $28M hit did in fact zap almost all of their cap space. Though once the Collins cut becomes official, they’ll have $12.4M in cap space. For the record, they could easily free up more. To the tune of $20-25M without doing anything more than extending Flowers, Schweitzer, and Ioannidis and moving much of Wentz’s money into the future. For whatever reason, they don’t seem to be motivated to do any of that. Why? Your guess is as good as mine.