In my quest to provide you with the best in analyses from the World Wide Web, I give you the very best article (using data) on Jayden Daniels:
https://www.dabearsblog.com/2024/jayden-daniels-looks-hauntingly-familiar
I find that it links some of the data that's been posted here in this thread. But it's combining them and the outlook is not rosy. I won't post all of it but he makes some great points, I think the top consideration is not P2S ratio or scrambling from a clean pocket percentage. It's Daniels refusal to target intermediate and over the middle:
Let’s start with the rushing, since that’s clearly what drives this comp for most — to put it simply, we have never seen any quarterback in history run the ball like Lamar Jackson has. During his college career Lamar Jackson averaged 126 Yards Per Game on the ground and 8.6 Yards Per Carry. Those numbers are simply preposterous. Daniels has averaged 71.9 Yards Per Game and 7.5 Yards Per Carry. Those numbers are very good, in fact those numbers rank Jayden 5th in Rushing Yards Per Game out of 114 drafted or draft-eligible QBs.
However, the gap between Jayden at #5 and Lamar at #1 is greater than the gap between Jayden and former Purdue quarterback David Blough, who is 71st on the list. Daniels is in the territory of guys like Josh Dobbs, Trey Lance, and Marcus Mariota — all guys who can certainly be an asset for an NFL offense on the ground, but don’t even come close to affecting defenses to the extent of Lamar Jackson.
More concerning to me than the difference in their raw production on the ground, however, is the difference between the two’s running styles. Lamar is a notorious home run hitter, his breakaway speed and ability to outrun NFL defenders with sub 4.3 speed has allowed him to remain healthy as he’ll often avoid the crushing blows that looming linebackers would love to subject him to. In college, Lamar’s Breakaway Run% (percentage of rushing attempts that went at least 15 yards) was 42.3%. For Jayden Daniels, that mark was just 17.7%. Jalen Hurts, another largely successful NFL running QB, managed a Breakaway Run % over 30%.
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Hurts and Lamar also averaged fewer Yards After Contact than Daniels, who averaged over 4 Yards After Contact per carry (Lamar was at 3.9 and Hurts was just 2.9). At first glance Daniels’ willingness to fight for yards after contact is an admirable trait, but the difference in Yards After Contact and Breakaway Run % tells is that Daniels is taking hits significantly more often when he runs than Lamar and Hurts, and that’s not a recipe for NFL longevity.
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Lamar had a career ADOT (Average Depth of Target, i.e. how many yards in the air the ball traveled on a per throw basis) of 11.9 yards, 4th highest of the 114 QBs mentioned before. Daniels was much, much more conservative, with a career ADOT of 9.1 yards ranking 76th.
Lamar also loved to pound the intermediate and deep middle of the field, with 24.5% of his non-screen passing attempts going between the hashmarks at a depth of at least 10 yards down the field, the 11th highest rate of any of the first or second-round QBs taken since 2015 along with the presumed top 5 of this year’s QB class. Jayden Daniels targeted the same area of the field just 18.1% of the time in his career, the 5th lowest rate among QBs in that group, above only Christian Hackenberg, Teddy Bridgewater, Marcus Mariota, and Justin Fields. Attacking the middle of the field is a vital skill for almost any successful NFL passers, as that is where defenses are often most vulnerable and where big chunk plays are available. Middle of the field passing requires throwing with anticipation and without hesitation, however, and many more conservative passers are unwilling to navigate that heavily-trafficked area
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Combine the Scramble Rate with the Pressure to Sack Rate and you find that Daniels only attempted a pass on just 50.6% of his pressured dropbacks (and that number actually fell to 48.1% in his final season). I was only able to find six college QBs since 2014 that were drafted in the first three rounds or received significant NFL playing time who attempted a pass under pressure less than 60% of the time:
Sam Howell, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Jayden Daniels, Hendon Hooker, and Malik Willis.