Ghost of

"Ratings are down. So you're gonna bribe some senators to legalize gambling." Shelly Marcone: Legalize sports gambling. You see, with all the heroes gone, legalized gambling is about the only thing that'll save the beast. You follow me, Joe? We're talking about some big bucks here. We're talking about billions.

I like my QBs to come from programs that make "the team, the team, the team" a central part of institutional culture. I also like guys who are dubbed the best ever after 2 years starts at a program that's had many NFL players at QB over decades.

We got him. We bleepin got him!

I'm not doing math with a headache but it's supposed to be percentages of passes but I don't know if there are conflicting numbers or criteria.

Thanks. I'm referring to percentages in intermediate middle mentioned in that one article and measures of aggressiveness. But looking at the raw numbers that looks a lot better. Do you remember the source for these? I'm going to sue the major stats publications for dereliction of duty, defamation... and murder!

I don't remember the number of dropbacks off hand. That would be useful. Like I know mccarthy has fewer dropbacks so proportionately he may have faced this situation slightly more than Maye or Daniels. I love people keep ignoring the middle of the field stats with Daniels.

Looking at JT O Sullivan and PFF guys talk and JT says his tape is actually more polished than Drake Maye, and that "if you can sling in, why not?" After reviewing some 2022 Highlights, he absolutely knows how to throw anticipatory passes, probably his most "WOW!" throw as a freshman, he throws it 40 yards from outside the numbers to the opposite hashmark down the field and he actually throws the guy open. Can't recall who the receiver was but his defender was not far away from him, the direction of the throw and its loft got him open to catch and then get the TD. Yes, he isn't showing touch/loft on deep corners (but he still hits them) as other guys but he makes every intermediate/pushing into deep and I've seen him complete a ton of swings and passes to the outside needing touch. I keep having this sinking feeling. At least with Brady's draft, everyone else made the same mistake multiple times. There's something about this kid that's electric (I know, because I watched a Cade McNamara team get to the CFP, he was much more like a Stetson Bennett than McCarthy) and he has every other quality. He has the metrics, he takes chances downfield and in the middle, he's not scared, he's safe but not conservative --- he just doesn't have the reps. Everything from calling his shot as a recruit, "taking it personal" with Ohio State, beating them 2 times, standing on the field after his two picks cost Michigan the CFP vs. TCU to "soak in the moment" and then winning it this year on one leg (from Penn State onwards) with his head coach suspended for the biggest games of the regular season.

You have my sympathies, CitR. My father passed away when I was a teenager. For many years I had those dreams and felt he was still with us. Now that I have a toddler son and infant girl, I fear losing them most. But my second fear is not being there for them in their tender years. I don't know what I'd do in your position, you are stronger than you know.

Yeah I messed up. Went for explicit taunting instead of what I had. And it was a bit larger than I expected.

"You knew Marcus Aurelius?! Lol" I did not say I knew him, I said he touched me on the shoulder once!

After seeing that data analytics article, to all the Daniels backers and all those who doubted him:

"Mariota, like Fields, appears on basically every list with Daniels. He scrambled from a clean pocket at an above average rate (though not as often as Daniels and Fields), scrambled at an above average rate overall (again not quite as often as Daniels and Fields), targeted MOF less often than those two, and like Daniels was an overly conservative deep passer. His NFL career is a tale of maddening inconsistency as he looked like a surefire star early on only to see his career disintegrate under a parade of turn downs, hits, sacks, fumbles, and injuries. A QB who takes too many sacks and won’t take chunk plays over the middle of the field but also won’t compensate by pushing the ball vertically is just not a very valuable NFL starter, unfortunately." Maybe we really are taking Daniels.

In my quest to provide you with the best in analyses from the World Wide Web, I give you the very best article (using data) on Jayden Daniels: https://www.dabearsblog.com/2024/jayden-daniels-looks-hauntingly-familiar I find that it links some of the data that's been posted here in this thread. But it's combining them and the outlook is not rosy. I won't post all of it but he makes some great points, I think the top consideration is not P2S ratio or scrambling from a clean pocket percentage. It's Daniels refusal to target intermediate and over the middle: Let’s start with the rushing, since that’s clearly what drives this comp for most — to put it simply, we have never seen any quarterback in history run the ball like Lamar Jackson has. During his college career Lamar Jackson averaged 126 Yards Per Game on the ground and 8.6 Yards Per Carry. Those numbers are simply preposterous. Daniels has averaged 71.9 Yards Per Game and 7.5 Yards Per Carry. Those numbers are very good, in fact those numbers rank Jayden 5th in Rushing Yards Per Game out of 114 drafted or draft-eligible QBs. However, the gap between Jayden at #5 and Lamar at #1 is greater than the gap between Jayden and former Purdue quarterback David Blough, who is 71st on the list. Daniels is in the territory of guys like Josh Dobbs, Trey Lance, and Marcus Mariota — all guys who can certainly be an asset for an NFL offense on the ground, but don’t even come close to affecting defenses to the extent of Lamar Jackson. More concerning to me than the difference in their raw production on the ground, however, is the difference between the two’s running styles. Lamar is a notorious home run hitter, his breakaway speed and ability to outrun NFL defenders with sub 4.3 speed has allowed him to remain healthy as he’ll often avoid the crushing blows that looming linebackers would love to subject him to. In college, Lamar’s Breakaway Run% (percentage of rushing attempts that went at least 15 yards) was 42.3%. For Jayden Daniels, that mark was just 17.7%. Jalen Hurts, another largely successful NFL running QB, managed a Breakaway Run % over 30%. ... Hurts and Lamar also averaged fewer Yards After Contact than Daniels, who averaged over 4 Yards After Contact per carry (Lamar was at 3.9 and Hurts was just 2.9). At first glance Daniels’ willingness to fight for yards after contact is an admirable trait, but the difference in Yards After Contact and Breakaway Run % tells is that Daniels is taking hits significantly more often when he runs than Lamar and Hurts, and that’s not a recipe for NFL longevity. ... Lamar had a career ADOT (Average Depth of Target, i.e. how many yards in the air the ball traveled on a per throw basis) of 11.9 yards, 4th highest of the 114 QBs mentioned before. Daniels was much, much more conservative, with a career ADOT of 9.1 yards ranking 76th. Lamar also loved to pound the intermediate and deep middle of the field, with 24.5% of his non-screen passing attempts going between the hashmarks at a depth of at least 10 yards down the field, the 11th highest rate of any of the first or second-round QBs taken since 2015 along with the presumed top 5 of this year’s QB class. Jayden Daniels targeted the same area of the field just 18.1% of the time in his career, the 5th lowest rate among QBs in that group, above only Christian Hackenberg, Teddy Bridgewater, Marcus Mariota, and Justin Fields. Attacking the middle of the field is a vital skill for almost any successful NFL passers, as that is where defenses are often most vulnerable and where big chunk plays are available. Middle of the field passing requires throwing with anticipation and without hesitation, however, and many more conservative passers are unwilling to navigate that heavily-trafficked area .... Combine the Scramble Rate with the Pressure to Sack Rate and you find that Daniels only attempted a pass on just 50.6% of his pressured dropbacks (and that number actually fell to 48.1% in his final season). I was only able to find six college QBs since 2014 that were drafted in the first three rounds or received significant NFL playing time who attempted a pass under pressure less than 60% of the time: Sam Howell, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Jayden Daniels, Hendon Hooker, and Malik Willis.

Yeah, I smell Columbus all over you.

FR FR! NO CAP. ON GOD! (he has a bit of the Zoomer broccoli cut).

I think Jay Cutler is an even better example of this. Jeff George, people really hated. I don't think his team hated Jay in the same way but they just couldn't respond to him. Cutler was a good player, but he was never great and it wasn't just about his statistics. Here's Devin Hester telling Shannon Sharpe that Jay Cutler had the arm, the athletic ability, the mind for the game. But he wasn't a leader, couldn't do what leaders do etc. To underestimate leadership or attitude is a team's detriment.

JJ the next day after an entire evening of psychological torture (Joker is his nickname for Jayden):

They're inviting this guy in to facilitate the visits. Not sure I feel comfortable with this process but I'm going to trust the FO on this one. It's a new era.

The Cereal question's importance has already been addressed by Prince "You don't even know what kind of cereal I like?...Wrong! Cap'n Crunch..with soymilk... because cows are for calves, you'd probably take me for half. You don't love me, you're a faker, you just want me for my acres"

He's not saying that he thinks they're stupid because they're wrong. It goes back to having bizarre takes, bad player comparisons, things that suggest the guy didn't spend a minute watching film, etc.

Cap is old, like everything with these kids, it's just recycling better, more original stuff. "Rizz" is technically novel but is lame af. I couldn't believe when I heard someone say "pressed" in a skit about Zoomers. lol you know how old that is?

I am more comfortable now in my thoughts about most of these prospects but it's been really hard for me to get a solid grip or handle on Penix.

Earlier Conn said he didn't get joy from watching him throw. Watching the game tape, I was struck by how often Kurt was befuddled about why LSU's reads for a certain concept "started in then go out" because Daniels missed a wide open RB available for an easy pass and big play multiple times. Throughout, Kurt would talk about him running or say he's not sure what they were asking him to do---basically, a lot more questioning than I thought I would see. He didn't fail to point out fast processing but something he noted in this processing talk is you can go through your progressions too fast. I've now seen multiple breakdowns talk about him pulling down for a run when someone was open and the concept was calling for a read to that guy, or where someone is sort of confused as to what LSU was asking him to do. If Jaden Daniels didn't run for over 1,000 yards but ran instead for 2-400 yards---he would not be looked at as a top 5 pick. Ask yourself this: If Maye or McCarthy had 5th years, what would they look like (assume coaching stability for the last 2-3)?