NoCalMike

The question I have is whether the what Sam is doing is different from what the majority of QBs are doing at that age/experience level or is it a Sam-specific issue. I am sure there are a handful of elite QBs that look great from Day 1, but to me the coaches have done Sam a disservice going into the season with this O-line and EB has done a disservice to Howell so far with using the (working) running game so sparingly.  That doesn't mean Sam also isn't making mistakes, but I think there are certain growing pains you expect with a young QB regardless, so why not try to help him out during the growing pains times?

When I look at our offense, I feel they are struggling to have an identity.  Part of that has been due to play calling.  I think EB has been play calling as if Howell, behind this O-line, can turn into a poor-man's Mahommes with now barely a month of NFL experience.  Going by the first 3 games, there is one thing the offense has done consistently well and that is run the ball.  The pass game has also been a lot better when they run the ball.   I expect that out of nowhere we are going to get to a game where the balance between the run-pass gets a lot closer to 50/50 and I am crossing my fingers that it is this week because we have a WR in McLaurin who has mostly OWNED the Eagles secondary and it would be terrible for him not to get the opportunities on Sunday to further put his ownage on display.

I feel like if we run the ball a whole lot more this could up a 27-24 kind of game with it being a coin toss who wins.

I will go with my heart on this one and say we shock the world in Philly for the second straight time.

27-24  Commanders.

I am not sure if EB/Ron trust Sam so much that they are throwing him out there expecting to work magic already, but if you ask me, when these defenses are rushing 4 and dropping 7 into coverage, we should be running the ball.  I feel like EB is reminding me of Kyle Shanahan early in his career where he would get some kind of rhythm going and the offense was driving and then for no logical reason decide it was a good time to go away from what's working.

Howell isn't going to shoulder this offense in 2023.  Yes, he will (should) look better in December than he does now at processing and getting through his reads, throwing the ball away, taking off out of the pocket when needed, but for now, he is in his 5th start and these defenses are damn near conceding the running game if we would just take them up on their willingness to let us do it.  The way defenses are being called against us, they are anticipating a heavy skew towards the pass and we are giving them exactly what they want. 

It's not just a problem at Fed Ex.  Ever see what Dallas looks like when the 49ers come to town?  Ever see the "home" crowds in Vegas, Arizona, or Los Angeles?  The fact is that this isn't the NFL of 30 years ago, it's just way easier to get into any stadium for the game if you can afford it because so many seats are bought up by the secondary market websites specifically to sell to whoever.  Very few stadiums have a rock solid home fan base the way some of us older fans remember seeing growing up.  

People continue to look right past the fact that the offense was looking fine when they were running the ball on the first drive and then for no logical reason they decided to drop back Howell 3 times in a row once they were just outside of the red zone.

The first half running attempts this season so far through 3 games are single digits in each game.....you don't think this has a lot to do with the over-aggressive pass rush the O-line is having to deal with?

BRob went for 70 yards on 10 carries, how does that average ypc work out?  Even Gibson was getting decent yards......outside of that fumble.

We beat a better Eagles team last year with Heinicke behind an O-line that was just as bad if not worse because we utilized the run game, (with BRob who wasn't even 100% at the time) ball control, and tried to limit Hurts rushing yards.   And the passing game picked it's shots based on how Philly's defense was reacting to getting run all over. Terry owns this secondary and if you commit to the run, it will force extra help and leave some of their secondary exposed in 1 on 1 match ups.

This isn't rocket science. I am not saying that if we stick to that game plan it means we will win the game, but it will make the game competitive because that is the current makeup of the team and it's personnel.  We don't have an O-line where a QB, let alone a QB in his 5th start can sit back there and scan the field while something develops.  Hell, tonight Hurts was getting 5+ seconds to throw dump off passes in the flat.  

I know EB's scheme isn't Scott Turner's scheme, but EB has plenty of run plays in his scheme too and he needs to start utilizing more of those when the match ups call for it.  Tons of stuff went wrong in that Buffalo game, but it starts with the head-scratching play calling for a lot of the game. 

Rushing 4 with no spy or at least a linebacker for containment on the run lanes up the middle is basically conceding a 1st down run by the QB in today's NFL.  Even the non "running QBs" are now athletic enough to take off up the middle when the openings are there.  

JDR relies on the front 4 almost too much.  Yes they are a good front 4, but the entire middle of the field is left exposed for a QB that can use his legs.  It's just asking to be exposed on those kinds of runs over and over again without extra help there.

17 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Rushing 4 and dropping 7 into coverage is a defense is a recipe for being run all over if the OC would just commit to it.  We ran the ball well against the Bills, hell, we've run the ball pretty well against every opponent so far, but EB keep deciding to go away from it.  I think we are seeing how much Mahommes being a generational talent, who does things that defy what your taught as a player, mattered in a pass first, pass often kind of offense.  Whether Howell can be that kind of QB by 2025 is up in the air, but for sure he is not that guy right now and shouldn't be constantly put in the position to have to be that kind of QB, especially behind this O-line.  

If I am EB, I am immediately going into Philly with some kind of run-play audible for Howell to use any time they see a defense try to copycat the Bills rush 4/drop 7 into coverage approach.  It will be an easy 5 yard run every single time if they just stick to it.  That is how the beat Philly last season with an O-line just as bad if not worse, and Heinicke at QB.  The deep shots will present themselves when a defense has to bring up DBs to help with the run.

I know EB has a certain kind of offense he wants to run, but until he (and that is even an IF at the moment) has had another offseason or two to mold more of the team into the personnel he needs, he has to work with who is currently on the roster and put them in positions for success.  Mahommes sat for a year as a rookie, but he was learning that EB offense that entire time where as Howell has had a lot less time with it before he started games.

My only issue with the "Sam holds the ball too long" narrative (for right now) is that it seems like the play design and calls aren't very proactive for him to be throwing quick passes.  Should he be throwing it away and/or running sooner, sure I can agree with that, but some of the plays we want to see being made downfield with this WR core require time to setup.  EB is calling 5 step drops which tells me they are still trying to run some longer developing plays behind this line.  It's also the percentage of how much Sam has very little time to drop back and go through his reads in the pocket.  It's a lot easier to do under duress if it is only happening a a small handful of times a game, but once it becomes the norm, of course it is going to affect the QB play, we see it every week with lots of QBs, many who are veterans as well. 

Sam isn't without blame, but it isn't just on the QB in his 4th start.

8 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Im not worried about Howell. I think he can be a good QB but he needs more help on the OL and then he just needs reps to get better.

 

Im just afraid the OL wont even allow that much.

I think across the board we are all frustrated that the O-line wasn't upgraded this past offseason. As soon as they knew Howell would be the starter, it should have been a priority to construct a wall of protection in front of them.

With that said, now that the season has started, the likelihood of the O-line being upgraded by anyone not already on the roster is slim to none, so I am looking in EB's direction regarding what actually CAN be improved and/or adjusted in-season, and for me the obvious answer is the run/pass balance because when we run the ball, we are running it well and it is having a positive effect on the passing game, but as soon as we go away from that formula and try to get cute, everything changes partially due to the Oline, partially due to Same, but I still point in EB's direction for not seeing this and making adjustments.

I know the ire directed at JDR has sort of cooled off a bit this past offseason, but I am not sure sure he doesn't deserve.  I feel like the defense has the potential to be better than it currently is, but JDR has a very basic approach and is stubborn about it.  In the modern NFL so many QB's you go up against are not going to just sit there in the pocket waiting to get sacked on 3rd & Long if you only rush 4 and give the QB runnung lanes to escape.  It happened a couple times in the first half, and then of course when they finally decided to send someone in the second half Curl whiffed or....whatever you call that and Allen ran for the TD, but I think the game was pretty much out of hand by that point anyway.   If you aren't going to send an extra rusher at these mobile QB's you better at least have someone spying them in the middle or every QB we face is going to be coached to just wait for the pass rush to move upfield and then right right past them up the middle. 

People have short memories:  NFC QBs currently during their development

Dak as a rookie, they ran Zeke into the ground behind the O-line to protect the QB and put him in favorable situations as much as possible.

Hurts won 4 games as a rookie, has a 3 INT game in a December game in his 2nd season, then they went out and built one of, if not the best O-line for his third year.

Daniel Jones after on okay rookie season regressed continually until 2022 when the coaches took the ball out of his hands as much as possible, focused on the run game, and had him running a lot of RPO.

So are we really acting like Howell in his first season as a starter is not going to have terrible games?  My question is what is EB going to adjust about this offense to get Howell more favorable situations  How about running the ball more than 5-6 times in the first half when the run game is absolutely working against every single opponent thus far?'

Did everyone miss the Eagles game last week when Hurts and the Eagles passing game was struggling so they handed the ball off to Swift until the defense could stop it and the defense was never able to?  Rocket Science, I know.

There's a trend with EB so far that goes beyond today's game (which has a ton of blame to go around for) and that is he tends to go away from the run for no good reason.  Robinson is ripping off 7 yards, 5 yards, then EB has Howell drop back 5 times in a row?  Look, I know the kind of offense EB wants to run, and maybe if he is around as the OC or HC long enough he will be able to bring in the personnel to make it happen, but 3 games into the season and I feel like EB is not calling the plays to put the current personnel in the best position to perform.  You hae a QB in his 4th start, and EB himself says during the weeks between games that he is going to be seeing a lot of things for the first time every week....so why when it comes to the games themselves, he just decides to stop running the ball when it is working.  No defense through 3 weeks has stopped the run.

I have a feeling Rivera & Bienemy about to have a meeting this week and we will see some of the balance adjusted for the Eagles game. 

So much more was terrible about this game (including some Sam too) and I'll be back later to drop some more ranting.

Watching the Giants @ 49ers sort of gave me visions of how our game with the Bills could go on Sunday should we miss the early opportunities that the 49ers were giving the Giants.   The final score of that game didn't really reflect that for most of the game it was a 1 possession game.  In no world would I suggest the Giants are anywhere close to the 49ers level, but I'll reiterate that often times September football is a month for those sneaky upsets because a lot of teams will have individual great performances but the team game is shoddy & inconsistent.  Brock Purdy tried to throw the ball to the Giants defense at least 3 times in the first half of a what was at that point a close game.  One of the time  Kittle played hero and knocked a would be INT away, but there were 2 other times the ball was just in no man's land and the Giants secondary simply dropped it.   

If we get those opportunities against Josh (most INTs since 2021) Allen early on, we absolutely must cash in.  Even if we don't score points off the turnovers, it is still taking away possessions from that offense.  When you up against a better/more complete team than you, turnovers can make the difference in the game.

Lastly I'll say, when taking on teams considered to be superbowl contenders, to me there are two objectives. The first always is to win the game, but secondly, if you don't win, at least be competitive and show you belong there.  If the game comes down to a final possession and/or something along the lines of Buffalo kicking a game winning field goal with under a minute to go.....I will still be annoyed at the lost, but I will at least come away feeling our team is already built to compete and just needs a few upgrades to get to that next tier.  However if the game ends up something like 31-17....then that is an entirely different feeling after the game. 

This game is definitely going to be a big test, but one thing I would say is that the Bills through 2 games don't look like their best version which is very common during the month of September.  They look like a good team still trying to figure it out and knock the offseason rust off.

Also, though conversations in online spaces about this game, just about every single Bills fan/media member are approaching their thoughts on this game as if they are going up against the 2021 team and not the 2023 team.  They clearly don't know much about the current squad that wasn't around back in 2021, and are sort of looking past this game at Miami. 

Comparing Purdy & Howell out there, it is hard to deny Purdy because he is 9-0 as a starter in the regular season but maaaaan that WCO just makes things so easy for the guy he does throw a couple solid deeper footballs a game but his skill position players get so much YAC off the most basic short passes it's nuts, plus the O-line giving him so much time.....I swear Purdy must play with a 4 leaf clover in his pocket because even going back to last season he seems to throw 4-5 passes that are in defenders hands every single game, yet most never actually get intercepted.  I see what Howell is doing out there and to me it transfers more to what you need to do be a QB in the NFL when the talent around you isn't in contender status yet.  Howell's sample size is much shorter at this point, but I can say easily with confidence he is throwing a lot more dynamic passes, throwing lasers into tight spaces etc etc.......

More consistency in the run game is going to be the key to bringing those safeties off the deep coverage.  Our run game has been inconsistent and although the sample size is small, there's been some stretches where EB doesn't run the ball much at all, however I will say that I do think EB sees the short passing game as an extension of the running game, especially early in games.  I am seeing a lot of instances where Sam drops back and throws these quick short passes that don't seem designed to do a whole other than make it 2nd & 5 (or less).  If the DBs are going to play 10 yards off of Terry, then we are going to see a lot more instances where Sam drops back and just feeds it to Terry to let him get an easy free 5+ yards.  There is no reason to stop doing that until Coordinators change that coverage.  We have seen those same passes made against our secondary for years and we would be yelling at the TV to get those DB's up closer to the line, so finally we are doing the same thing.

This team is 2-0, both wins in which the team only played well in about 2.5 quarters of each game.  If I ignore the Cards game under the "Week 1 is always weird" idea, and focus on the Denver game....this offense put up a true 35 points after going down 3-21 on the road against a Defense that was at least projected to be a Top 5 defense going into the season, in a stadium that is one of the tougher places to win, with a QB who was making his third start.

I also noticed that EB is making a lot of in-game adjustments and it usually leads to the offense improving as the game goes on. It seems like early in games EB uses the quick passes as a replacement for the running game.  Instead of trying to get 4 yards on a run, he has Sam drop back and throw an immediate pass to Terry or Jahan on 1st down.  Then as the game goes on, maybe when defenses are tired, he instead starts handing the ball off and runs are going for a lot of yards.

For all the praise we are giving Howell right now, I am still expecting him to have some ugly games this season.  There will be more tape on him, D-coordinators will have a better way to cater specific strategies against him, but I felt overall he handled the pressure brought a lot better than he did against the Cards, and Denver is the better defense so it does show his ability to quickly learn from mistakes.  The execution of the screen passes against Denver was top notch and an efficient way to obliterate the aggressiveness of the blitz.   If Sam is able to do that at a good rate, it is going to have coordinators second-guessing how much they want to blitz him and start turning to trying to attack Sam with coverages instead.

Sam is passing all the tests right now, but there will be plenty more to come this season.

There are two calibers of QB that win in this league.  QBs you can win with, and QBs you can win because of.  There are usually only 3-5 "win because of "QBs in the NFL at any given time/era.  Howell to me is at least starting to show he is a QB you can win with.  "Win because of" is still something we have to wait on and won't likely know for another season or two, but I really think Howell is doing enough to put him in that Jalen Hurts category where if you build the talent around him, he can make the big plays necessary.  

The main criticism of Howell right now is holding onto the ball, but for starters, I think the issue is more about cleaning up his decisiveness once the pocket starts to break down.  I think on a good number of those sacks, if he just committed to bailing and taking off a half a second sooner, he'd be getting yards.  This isn't to say he should be doing that every time over simply throwing the ball away, I am just saying I think as a mobile QB who can hurt you with his legs, that option has been there a few times where instead he sort of sits down with the ball and waits too long for an off-script play to develop.  Also, I think that is common with a lot of mobile QBs, even the vets.  They often will refuse to give up on a lot of the plays the non-mobile QBs.  There is always going to be pros & cons to that mindset and it is going to pay off sometimes and look bad at other times.  The hope is that the more Howell gets experience and reps, the  better he will be at making those kinds of decisions.

I am exhausted because I was up early, plus the ending of that game aged me.....so here goes a few quick thoughts.

Give Howell time to throw and he delivers dimes.  I think he only really had one "bad pass" today on his own volition and it is was the miss to Terry early in the game.  

The Defense is back to that weird act they do where they start the game looking not ready, slow, ineffective pass rush, and at some point it's like a light bulb just turns on and they remember they have a dominant D-line and they just take over.  Through two games, the defense has played very good (maybe even great) for 2.5 quarters and you can see the huge difference it makes when they are doing what they are supposed to do.

Forbes got an INT today, could have had 3.....I won't count that one on the hail mary since he should be getting an earful for not just looking to bat it down.  The kid is balling.  He did get burned early in the game, but that was also when the D-line was applying zero pressure to Wilson.

This defense has the potential to be a turnover-generating machine if they are just able to hold onto the footballs thrown right into their hands. So far it hasn't cost them a game, but the next two weeks you can't let those opportunities go to waste.

The tight end room had a hell of a game.

The running backs......I have no idea why they were so mediocre in the 1st half and then something clicked in the 2nd half.......

Charles Leno is an enigma....it's not that he always gets beat, it's the fact that when he does get beat, it's like he completely forgot how to block all together.

TERRY IS THAT DUDE!  Dime piece to Terry and Terry did what Terry does.

EB's 2nd half game calling was very good.

Ok that is all for now.

For all the flak the O-line has received (some of it justified) I saw plenty of running lanes last week that were simply missed by the entire RB room.  We absolutely need more production from the RB position when taking on NFL defenses.  These defenses are going to test Howell every week, even the ones that aren't necessarily known for being aggressive, will amp it up because of Howell's inexperience.   When the RB's miss their assignments, we end up with a 2nd or 3rd & 7 instead of an & 3.....and that is going to drag down the offense.

Here is hoping they get on track this week.

Commanders 24

Broncos 17

22 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

The interception sucked but it was a tipped pass. Stuff like that happens in the NFL. I won't kill him for that.

 

The fumble was terrible though. Was shades of Carson Wentz. That needs to be gone from his system completely. Its one thing to fumble if you're hit from the blindside or something like that but a DL basically dove at the ball while he was trying to run away from him and it popped loose. Can't happen man.

 

But I like that he didn't back down after. He was still looking to throw strikes. And immediately on the next drive, he got us into FG range. And the TD run was gutsy as heck. 

 

Beyond that, he had one real bad miss to McLaurin that would have been a first down inside I believe the Cardinals 20 or so. Would have gotten us at least 3. Instead we got no points on that drive. But he was also let down by Logan Thomas's two big drops and of course the Gibson fumble which definitely took at least 3 points off the board.

 

All in all Howell was...meh. I mean he looked about what you'd expect from a 5th round 2nd year QB playing in his second career start. But he's still an upgrade over what we had last year(not by a lot, but he is). I'm more worried that the OL is going to rattle his development. I mean the Cards with a bunch of no names were getting pressure. What's gonna happen when he faces even our division opponents who all feature awesome fronts...

I agree with all of this.  I think Howell had two passes that I'd deem bad and 100% on him, one was the throw behind Terry, and the other was the one that looked like it could have potentially turned into a game-killing pick 6 when he stared down the target.

The actual interception was just a case of bad luck as even the best QB's have their passes tipped and that is how most of them end up with interceptions.  It happens and not much you can do about it once a defender gets it tipped in the air.   The fumble was the more egregious error to me because it reeked of Howell trying to salvage something in a situation where there was nothing to salvage.  The defender broke through the O-line so quick that Howell had little time to escape, and he should have recognized the situation, put both arms around the ball and taken the sack.  Instead it looked like he was trying to work impossible magic and it turned into disaster.

I really wish the O-line would have been addressed more diligently in the offseason because when I am watching Brock Purdy on the 49ers, a lot of what he is doing is facilitated because of the pass protection.  He is able to drop back, read, react, and really rifle the ball.  I don't even see Purdy doing much spectacular out there, it's just that he doesn't need to when players have time to get open in their routes, or a RB like McCaffrey finds a cutback lane and goes 50 yards.

I think too much of the offense was put on Howell's shoulders too soon, EB got away from the running game way too quick and once the Cards realized this they were  tightening up their defense and playing as if there was no run plays being called.

Oh one thing I forgot....

The WR unit:  It was only one game, and the O-line issues probably didn't help matters, but I wasn't real impressed with how they were used in the offense today.  There was the one deep attempt to Terry that drew the flag, but overall it seemed like there was a ton of throws to stationary targets that eliminated opportunities for YAC.  I was hoping to see more slants & timing routes that allow the WRs to keep running in stride.  The one I can think of is when Howell threw arguably his worst pass of the day way behind Terry, because if that pass is hit in stride, Terry can likely turn up field and possibly a house call. (I forgot if there was a safety over the top of it).

This WR core is too good to be involved so little, there is little chance some of them aren't winning their match ups.  I give Terry a pass because there is a chance he is out there not 100% but I expected to see the WRs catching a lot more passes in space, especially considering Dotson's route running ability.

I am not giving up on Chase yet, until I see what he looks like on the field when healthy again, however I am officially in the "if Chase turns out to be good, its a bonus" because honestly I think the D-line is still dominant without him AND....I really doubt management would be able to pay him AND Sweat premier DE money anyway so if the best case scenario happens which is a healthy Chase come back and dominates, we are losing one of 'em at the end of the season anyway and I would look to possibly trade one of them in order to get something.  

Sweat was playing out of his mind today, btw.

We are lucky that the D-line is super deep and can absorb the blow of Chase not working out.

Currently on my mind regarding the game:

Howell was good....enough.  He looks about what I expect from a young QB.  His playmaking ability is there, both of the TDs were due to Howell's legs. The first one buying time, the second, running it in.  6 sacks is no bueno. Some of them were on the O-line, but there is also some cases where Howell has to recognize the situation and either take off or throw the ball away.  He might be going through the "every play has to be big" syndrome that young QBs do.  Overall I am happy with his performance.

O-line.....well the first few drives I was good with them, because they were mostly running the super quick pass plays to the flat.  Once EB was calling plays where they actually had to block to setup bigger plays, they failed miserably.  I am not looking forward to them matching up the better D-lines this season and I don't see how that unit can be fixed in-season.

Gibson: Put aside the red zone fumble for a moment, because I don't even see that as his major issue.  As RB, the dude has TERRIBLE field vision.  Over and over he is handed the ball and just runs straight forward into the pack instead of seeing the huge cutback lanes.  This kind of incompetenancy is the difference between 3rd & 3 vs 3rd & 6.....for an NFL RB this shouldn't be something you are still working on starting your 4th season.  I think Gibson still has some attributes that make him a weapon, but the RB experiment is about over. 

Defense: I thought they started the game just okay and was worried about another season where it takes them an entire month to figure it out, but after halftime they woke up and become dominant.  Sweat is out there on a mission and Chase Young better have a hell of a season ahead of him once he is back on the field because if Sweat keeps up this level of play consistently, he is getting paid ASAP.

Special teams: Coverage was spectacular.  The return game....eh it was okay. I like Crowder better than Mline, but I didn't think Crowder was amazing either, however he did enough to want me to see more. 

Offense: I was trying to be tempered with my expectations of how they would look out of the gate. This offense may become a machine eventually, but with this O-line it isn't going to be consistent.  There is enough firepower there to flash a lot of big plays but it is going to be up and down until they can consistently pass protect.  The goal is for the offense to look a little better every week that way if this team is any kind of position to be fighting for a playoff spot in December, they will be peaking then.

Coaches:  JDR gets a good grade.  Rivera/EB.....eh....I will give a C- for Week 1.   I thought EB was good at the start of the game, but when the O-line was struggling it felt like EB failed to adjust quick enough and the offense stalled out for awhile until they decided they needed to run the ball more.  Next week in Denver I want to see better in-game adjustments to what is happening on the field.  EB probably has a good idea of what he WANTS to do with the offense, but if the O-line is able to protect the QB long enough for those plays to develop, it's a lost cause.

Overall a win is a win in the NFL so I am happy enough.......but I am not exactly wow'd by it either.  This franchise has managed to win a lot of season openers in this exact fashion, and people want to ignore the troubling aspects, then before you know the team is 2-6.  So it is still a wait & see situation for me for this season.