NoCalMike

Way too much to post about right now, and being on the west coast, dinner about to be served so for now I only have one question:

Any new info on who the coordinators were on our sideline yelling at each other, when in the game it happened, and what it was about?

Ron was asked about it but wouldn't give an answer.

The issue with the defense is that there are no great/standout players.  Allen & Payne are solid contributors and you can argue that in isolated games or stretches of games they have played great but even they aren't the caliber players where you expect that impact automatically every game.  Good players have a ceiling and they need great players next to them to get the full potential.

A great example is Chase Young on the Commanders vs the 49ers.  Watching the 49ers defense since the trade, Chase Young hasn't really looked or performed any different than he did when he was here, however he is now on a defense where him being good is enough where on the Commanders defense he needed to be great for it to be truly impactful.  With Bosa and Greenlaw on the 49ers D-line, Chase just has to be a guy, not THE guy.   

We lack the blue chip caliber players that elevate the players around them.  The D-line needs one, the secondary needs one, and the linebackers need almost an entire overhaul.  I think Jamin Davis has some physical tools that can be better utilized with a different D-coordinator, but I don't think he can ever rise to THE GUY status.

10 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

I'm kind of off with the WR's. McLaurin's great, but the rest of the group is below average or worse. Samuel's solid when healthy, but he's rarely healthy. Dotson had an intriguing rookie year but has been awful this season. Looking like another silly reach like most of our day 1 and day 2 picks. Hope I'm wrong, it's definitely too early to say bust, but not too early to say he's having a terrible season in '23. 

 

The target separation hovering between 29 and 30 is just flat out embarrassing, and probably explains the utterly bizarre passing distribution last week. Next year's WR class is quite good, so maybe we can peel off some talent there and/or look at FA options, McLaurin aint getting younger, can't count on Dotson, Samuel is a '17 if memory serves with a litany of injury issues and may be a FA, I can't remember. We need to rebuild his tool box with OL, pass catchers, a legit special athlete RB, and a difference making TE (though Thomas was a fantastic signing considering how bad we've been otherwise, at the position). 

Yeah the Cowboys basically aged Ezekial Elliot 10 years in 3 seasons in order to protect Dak and slowly bring him along before they were ready to make him a bigger focal point of the offense. 

The Eagles were the first team that Howell got a second crack at (and vice versa) and he definitely passed the test.  I expect Howell to have a much better game against the Giants in this game, I just don't know if it will matter unless the defense does better.  For some reason this season every game in which our offense scores a lot of points, the defense gives up as many or more points.  I don't see the Giants scoring a lot of points Sunday (even if they get a lot of yards again) so I think the Commanders are going to win, but this team has made it nearly impossible to feel confident about anything.

My prediction is that the defense will let us down regardless of whether we end up winning the game or not.

Also, losing to the Giants at home, with what may now be another new starting QB, will officially break my red line for firing Ron Rivera in season. (I have been on the fire JDR immediately train for awhile now).

Mostly everything I've read about Seattle in 2023 says they are an up & down team and that kind of worries me the most because it seems like those types of team tend to bring the up part of equation when they play us. 

I am getting to the point where I am not worried about the offense (maybe points-wise still a little) but I just have no confidence in the defense against any opponent anymore.

Considering the season Howell has had so far, I'd question any HC/GM candidate who wanted to start 2024 with a different starting QB.  Now sure, Howell is still early enough in his career that we could see him plateau and eventually regress over his next say 10-20 games played, but you actually need him to play another season to see if there is any regression or slump to be had in the first place.  In what world, based on what we have seen from Howell so far, would you not want to see him with an additional offseason, pieces placed around etc etc....start in 2024?  

It doesn't matter who is on the draft board because as we have seen in the past there is no magic formula for drafting a QB regardless of how they looked in college and we'd be starting over at Step 1 of the process. 

Turns out when your linebacking core is mediocre at best, the opposing team's offenses will continue to attack the middle of the field regardless of who is or isn't on the D-line. 

From watching the D-line on pass rushes specifically they basically looked the same, a lot of "close....but didn't get quite get there before pass thrown" instances, the difference is now we have depth players doing it rather than a couple of supposed difference-makers doing it.

To be fair on the dropped INT, it def felt like it took some OPI (of course uncalled) to cause it. 

1 hour ago, CapsSkins said:

I’m going to outdo my “trade Terry for Tee Higgins” hot take and say I think Howell in Scott Turner’s offense may have delivered better results to this point this season than EB.

 

Turner had to go bc he lost the locker room, but I wonder what would’ve happened if we started Howell last year over Wentz/Heinicke. Turner never got to run his offense with a real QB under center and meanwhile schemed guys open all the time.

I can't disagree really. It doesn't mean I wanted the Scott Turner offense as the answer regardless, but Turner's original scheme before it had to switch to the run heavy time of possession slog to accommodate a limited QB seemed to suit the strengths of a big-armed QB that could push the ball down the field.  

The Top 3-5 ranked QB is not about being unable to win a championship without one, it is that that caliber of QB usually will keep the team relevant and in the conversation every single season.   Brady, Manning, Big Ben, Rodgers, etc etc......they weren't winning the superbowl every single season but what they did do was keep those teams winning every single season for the most part.  If you are able to pretty much be a playoff team based on what your starting QB can do alone, then there is a good chance that over the course of their career, the team will end up a legitimate superbowl contender a handful of times.

Teams that win the other way(s) usually have a much smaller window and have to take the "all in for this season" risks more frequently.

/fI don't know if Hurts is more mobile than Sam so much as Hurts plays behind an O-line where even if a defense has good coverage, that O-line more times than not is holding their blocks and giving Hurts clean rushing lanes to escape.  When Howell drops back, often times if he isn't throwing the ball in 2.5 seconds, the O-line has been pushed back in multiple directions making it a lot more difficult to escape.

To me a good sign with Howell was the first Eagles game vs 2nd Eagles game.  Statistically he was good in both, but last Sunday for the most part Howell looked next level decisive, quick, and determined on a lot of those drop backs.  He was hitting his the height of his drop back and letting the ball go, and usually highly accurate to players who weren't breaking their stride.  I think sometimes rookies/first year starters sometimes tend to play a bit more robotically because they are trying to process so much brand new stuff in their head on every pass play that they aren't comfortable yet just going out there and playing football.  Howell looked like he was playing football last Sunday.

I think you build a playoff team through the draft with a little assistance through free agency, and you target free agency and become buyers at the deadline when you are trying to go from contender to championship threat because a lot of those big free agency contracts realistically have a 2-3 season window despite what the figures look like when the contract is signed and most teams once they are good enough to contend for a championship likely have a 2-3 season window to get it done before too many of those bills come calling to be paid.

Unfortunately in Washington for a long time under Snyder he tried to use free agency as too major of a tool for the initial building process.

The way I see it, the moves currently being made, coupled with Chen's metrics for how to win in the NFL, tells me there is a belief by those currently in the building (I assume front office & coaches) that Howell is good enough to go the Eagles-Jalen Hurts route which is to get into position to overhaul the offense around Sam, while making upgrades to the defense where necessary.  I don't know the kind of QB Sam Howell develops into a couple seasons from now, but what we are seeing early seems to be a big belief in his skills.

Before these trades I was a worried about Curl escaping through free agency but I think now,  much like they paid the middle of the D-line for performance, Curl is going to get extended with a nice contract or at least a lot of effort is going to be put into doing it and he only will leave if some kind of blockbuster offer is made (or if he never intended to stay in the first place).

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

That and Chase's effort, or lack thereof, on Sunday. It was clear as day he was playing not to get hurt so he could secure his trade to another team.

So do you think Chase is Lavar Arrington 2.0 as in, he has all the physical tools but refuses to play as a part of a unit, or do you think the coaches have seen something in Chase's game since returning that suggests his celing post-knee reconstruction is a lot lower then what he initially could have turned into?  

I think Chase can still end up a productive player in the NFL, it's not like his play is terrible out there, but I have noticed some tendencies in his game much like Lavar where when he abandons assignments to try and make flash plays, it leads to too many plays happening to his side of the field.  I just don't know if in his case it is more stubborness or his burst is gone and not coming back?  Maybe a combo of all the above.

Chase Young's dad calling into the local radio show a couple days ago to go on defense was a pretty good sign Chase was getting traded.

Terry has a habit of going to the ground on catches to minimize contact when he knows (or has good reason to believe) there is a safety in the area ready to lay a hit.  I don't have any issue of it most of the time because Terry comes down with the catches anyway, but today he dropped 2 critical passes while doing that.  Both drops were absolutely crucial to the flow of the game.  Terry has built up such good will, for everything he brings on & off the field, so it's not like I like the dude any less overall, but that doesn't change the fact that if you are a #1 WR in the NFL....hell just in the NFL....if the ball hits both your hands, and isn't literally knocked away from you by a defender......MAKE THE CATCH!

3 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I’m not sure how one can walk away from a game where our guy in his 9th start, with a defense giving up 30+ per week, throws over 50 times for 400 and 4 scores, and have anything even remotely negative to say about it.

 

 

Stay faaaaaaaaar away from twitter, because.....sheesh.

AJ Brown having one of those monster seasons where now the officials are just being stupid about allowing him to push off.  One of his TD catches later in the game I believe it was Forbes in front of him and a safety over the top (safety kind of late to the play) and AJ Brown clearly uses both arms extended to push Forbes away to create space.  Official right there on the sideline just watching it too.

The other thing people have to keep in mind is that Howell is being asked to shoulder this offense as a first year starter.  It feels almost like a more old-school approach to how they used to just throw QB's in there and say "good lucky, hopefully you make it out the other side as an elite QB in a couple seasons"

In the modern era, it's much more common that you try to couple a young QB with a robust running game, good O-line and a defense that at least isn't giving up 28+ points every game.

You ask a first year starter to drop back 40+ times a game and you are going to see mistakes, missed throws, and a little confusion from time to time.

When Dak was a rookie on the Cowboys, they spent first couple of his starting seasons turning Zeke Elliot into an old man in order to protect Dak and bring his share of the offense along slowly.  Hurts drops back behind one of the best O-lines in the NFL (if not the best) and a defense that is usually pretty good.

The situation Howell is currently in isn't comparable at all.  Even Purdy on the 49ers, all that early praise he was getting and now the past few games when defenses are figuring out his flaws, he doesn't look the same, even with a contender-worthy roster. 

- Did Chase or Allen do anything to help their trade value today?  Chase continues to abandon assignments and gives up outside leverage to mobile QBs.  His problem isn't his physical ability it's the Lavar Arrington-ness in his game.   Sweat peaked as a player too soon and hasn't been a game wrecker in awhile

- Ron & JDR been building this defense for four seasons now and they are worse now then when they took over despite all the investment.  

- EB has to be the President of the Howell fan club because he play calls as if he sees Howell's ceiling as high as the sky because he has zero issue putting the offense on Howell's shoulders even when the run game seems to be working.

- Starting Larsen at Center today feels like the same impact as when they finally benched William Jackson last season. The O-line protected Sam for the majority of the game better than they have so far.  Protections were being aligned correctly, blitzes were being picked up.  Howell had time to throw most of the day.

- Both losses to the Eagles could be moved on from more easily if it wasn't for the losses to The Bears & Giants.  Losing hard fought games to elite teams are usually not what keeps you out of the playoffs, it's stacking up losses to sub .500 teams.

- At this point the only coach I even want to entertain being here next season is EB, and I am still not even 100% there yet.

- What's the deal with that Dotson catch-not-a-catch reversal in the middle of the play.  Someone said NY is allowed to just chime in to the refs and tell them they got the wrong call? I thought outside of 2mins challenges to plays have to come from an actual challenge, or if the refs decide to huddle up and discuss it, but I've never heard of NY calling into the official to just tell them to reverse it?

11 minutes ago, MrJL said:

on the other hand if the team isn't playing well, why hang onto players not playing well?

My Guess is that 3-5 is not a bad enough record for Ron to think a turn around is out of the question.  Ron team's have tended to be streaky and I think his belief (not mine, mind you) is that he feels he has a better argument to stay employed at the end of the season with the best record possible the team could achieve now where as the front office might be more wanting to start formulating a plan for the next 2-3 seasons as soon as possible.

It sort of feels like to me the current coaching regime knows how they finish this season is likely going to determine whether they are here or not next season and are not keen on trading away players that hurt their chances to squeeze out any hope of a successful season right now because the future the organization be making those trades for will not likely include the current coaching staff.  So to me, even though Ron is "GM" at this point I wouldn't hesitate that any trades could be possibly going over his head.

The unfortunate thing is that because of the losses to the Bears and NYG, losing a close well played game on Sunday, similar to the first against Philly won't leave me with the same feeling it did after that game.  At the time, the loss stung because winning was in the realm of possibility the entire 4 quarters & OT, and I came away thinking wow if they just learn how to make adjustments to reduce the damage an opponent's #1 WR does against our defense, things could look different next time.  Since then, I haven't seen much at all to suggest anything will be different and no matter how much of an effort we see, Hurts is likely just going to be able to throw downfield prayers to a wide open AJ Brown anytime he is under any kind of duress. 

I can't in good conscience predict a win Sunday.

Philly 28

Commanders 17

3 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Just some food for thought, but we see mentions of Josh Allen and Pat Mahomes holding the ball longer than Sam, where they ultimately make something happen as opposed to take a sack.

 

Obviously those 2 are elite, but having watched the both of them play a lot - often times it’s a simple as everything crashing around them and they step up into an oasis of open green grass and scamper for the first down marker.

 

This is anecdotal, but often times it appears everything is caving in on Sam and there is no oasis of green grass for him to escape to.  That’s not to say I haven’t watched him float his way into a sack before, he definitely has.  But too many times it’s chaotic and there is nowhere to flee.

Yes, I've been observing this as well.  I think that while the LT/RT are getting the majority of the criticism, and yes they deserve a lot, the inside of the O-line being so soft is contributing to Howell not having the escape lanes that QB's such as Hurts, Allen, Mahommes etc etc are gifted.  When you see those QBs drop back, most of the pressure on them comes from the DE's but they usually always have wide open space in front of them to take off and run, which is why it feels so "back-breaking" for a defense because you can see the DE's affecting the play, but if the middle of the O-line is holding their blocks, it gives the QB clean escape options every time, something Howell often doesn't have because the entire O-line is getting beat.  It's not like those QB's are scrambling within 2-3 seconds either, they are often dropping back, going through progressions, and then deciding the best option is to run.  For Howell, some people are asking him to make that decision continually within 2 seconds which means the majority of passing options will never make it to where they need to be for a pass anyway.  Can't have it both ways, if you want Howel taking off out of the pocket at the first sign of pressure, then there are going to be a lot of plays bailed on, and he is basically going to be a RB under center which also means a huge increase in taking hits.