NoCalMike

So for some reason I had a horrible habit of never looking at the jumbo tron between plays to watch replays.  There were two seemingly would-be INTs that ended up 49ers receptions.  One was I think....Davis maybe diving for one close to the ground and everyone in the crowd thought for sure it was an INT but it wasn't.  Then there was on by I think Reeves where he came up to press and had a 50/50 looking play where it ended up a reception.   

From watching it on TV and how many angles you probably got, how close were those to INTs?  Did they look more like missed opportunities by our players or just spectacular plays on the other side of the ball?

To me the Browns game is another Giants (game #2) situation.  Win the game or you don't deserve to go to the playoffs regardless of what scenarios suggest it could still happen.

I just hope something happens next week that makes Week 18 not important for the Cowboys.  I don't think they are unbeatable, but I also don't trust this team to win a game like that yet.  The O-line against Dallas's defense would be a depressing way for the season to come to a close.

I've said in this thread and others and I will say it again.  The Giants are a team this team should have swept.  They blew tons of chances in the first game, and just played mediocre, flat, & uninspired in a game that was supposed to be their statement game and coming out party to the world.  (You can make the argument the Eagles MNF game was that, but they weren't getting the praise and love from the media the way they had been in the last month)  This season has had a lot of ups & downs, you can make the valid case for other games earlier in the season that they also let slip by, but the main difference for me between those games and the Giants games, were the early season we were a mess of a team for many different reasons, some of those reasons persist to this day, but some were fixed, reduced, & minimized.  Tie/Losing to the Giants with relatively the same roster that I just saw go toe to toe with the 49ers for even just a half of football? INEXCUSABLE. 

Took me 4hrs to get home from the game, only just under 2 to get there.

I was pretty happy with the performance in the first half.  They had to play about as close to perfect as possible and outside of giving up the 70 yard rush to (not) Deebo Samuel, it was a good half of football.  I didn't like not taking the 3 points early, and I think there were missed opportunities that could have had us up at the half.

Then the 2nd half started.   Look, I know it looked rough out there, but the 49ers are a championship level roster right now.  This is what those teams do.  If you aren't on that level, sure you can hang for awhile, but they gave us a good look at the difference between a good defense that is still in the process of growing and upgrading the weaker spots and an elite defense that not only doesn't have any  "weak" spots, but who's depth can come into the game and not miss a beat.   One big issue with our defense right now outside of the D-line itself, is that it seems like any time a starter is not out on the field, whether it is an injury, a breather, a rotation, whatever....the drop off in play is dramatic.  I think for the first of the game, it looked like watching a mirror image of two teams built in a very similar way, however one of those teams is a couple offseasons ahead of us in their build. 

When I was sitting in my seats watching the team in the first half, the main thought in my head was frustration over how they looked against the Giants in the second game.  I still say, regardless of how these last 2 weeks play out, that loss to the Giants on SNF is ultimately what dooms this team should they fail to make the playoffs.  That was another prove it game for this franchise, and they reverted back to the same type of team we have seen too many times over the last 20 years which is a team that can crawl their way out of a hole with scrappy play, but as soon as they get a few eyeballs on the, and praise thrown their way, they fail to keep it going and fall right back into that familiar .500 team pack.

Was very enthused with what I saw out of Chase on the field. He was actually a lot faster than I expected in his first game back.  If these extra weeks are the reason he looked pretty good, then those extra weeks were well served for him.  Can't wait to see what he can try to put together for these next two huge games, and especially in his home debut and then against a division rival.  

Dotson is a stud, not only did he make big catches, but he was open a ton more. 

On the goal line stand where we failed to get in.  BRob took a bad angle and cut inside when if he bounced to the outside he is walking into the endzone or at the least he might meet some contact right at the goal line but it would have been one on one with a defender and I am betting on BRob in that scenario every time.

I thought Wentz looked fine when he came in, definitely flashed some of why he can potentially provide a spark to the offense in ways Heinicke can't, but he was put into the game so late that it is hard to make a full evaluation on what Wentz can or can't do with the current make up of the offense.

All in all, by the time the game kicked off I saw the results of the morning games and knew we' retained the 7th seed no matter what, so it took a lot of that fan-stress I likely would have had, and I was able to enjoy the game for what it was, a title contender educating everyone on the differences between them and a wildcard hopeful. 

I don't view Wentz as any kind of savior of the offense (assuming he is being named the starter sometime this week) but I do think there were some immediate small differences you see with a QB1 talent vs QB2.  When I say QB1 I don't mean Top 10 QB in the NFL, just someone with the physical attributes.  A lot of the short passing game, you can see the difference with your eyes the difference between Heinicke throwing to the sideline and Wentz.  Wentz is able to throw lasers that gives the receiver time to catch the ball and make a move with it to try and juke the defender where as Heinicke usually lofts a ball where it feels like they are waiting forever and the defender has time to come up and meet the receiver.  Arm talent isn't just about who can heave the ball downfield the furtherst. 

I think Heinicke had a pretty good 1st half against SF for the most part, but I also think the O-line played much more clean in that first half then they have in awhile considering the 49ers front 7, however once they made their halftime adjustments  the O-line went right back to who we thought they were. 

On 12/22/2022 at 1:08 PM, skinny21 said:

I hear you SIP, especially on that last point.  It’s a line I’ve struggled with for sure - defending certain aspects, while trying to make it clear I’m not in the tank for the guy.  I’ve done it for other players and coaches too, it’s just my nature to look for extenuating circumstances and withholding judgement accordingly.  With this team, it seems to rarely pay off though, lol.  Del Rio and Jamin Davis are the only two recent ones I can come up with.

IMO, hyperbole makes it tougher to have a rational conversation/debate, so I disagree that it’s “picking nits”.

 

As for the blame, from my standpoint there’s a group that goes out of their way to blame aspects other than Heinicke, a group that doesn’t lend much import to those aspects, and then a group that lives in the gray area - assigning blame both directions (even if it understandably skews more one way).

Absolutely.  I’ve felt Heinicke has been the best option, but as we get to the end, it seems like the team needs a spark.  I’m not optimistic that Wentz (or Howell) can provide it, particularly behind this oline, but I think it’s worth trying.  To be clear, I think Heinicke is generally still playing at the same level, so there’s hope we can still eek out wins with him, but his poor play in the red zone, the struggles on 3rd down, and the lack of pass pro put a definitive ceiling on things.

Oh for sure. I am ready to move on from Heinicke because I feel like his ability ceiling is not good enough for the last stretch of games.  To be fair, the 49ers game is a mountain of a task regardless of the QB so I would assume a 7-7-1 record regardless of QB.

My fear is that because Heinicke has such a low ceiling, this is the time of the season it is going to be the most glaring and there isn't any film studying that is going to change it.   Would the team still lose these games with Wentz and perhaps Howell? Sure, I can easily see it, but Heinicke isn't the best QB on the roster right now and his supposed attributes that are supposed to be making him the best QB for the situation have also evaporated slowly over the past month of games. 

There's a difference between saying Heinicke has been good vs due to the circumstances I believe Heinicke is still the best option.

1 minute ago, HoggLife said:

Being gone 14 years and only back a couple months Shady Oaks is the only course I've thrown since being here. I'm totally down to get a tag with your group and throw with you guys. I use to throw daily but same with me with opening my own business and kids I went a couple years without throwing so I just need to get back out there consistaly and it will all come back. 

Ok man, I'll throw your number in my phone and shoot you a text sometime in the next week.  If you're able to make it for the Hangover tag round cool, if not, we have our inaugural 2023 kickoff tag round in January some time. Rocklin course is the next closest, I think the park is called Johnson-Springview park.  Just down the road from shady oaks actually. 

The main issue with Heinicke for me is that originally the main downside was all about his physical limitations, but he supposedly made up for it with his mobility, knowledge of the offense, and.......moxie.  The problem is we aren't seeing a lot of the first two on film anymore from him.  He is running less than ever and he is missing open receivers all over the place, throwing into coverage when there are open guys etc etc......if you combine that with the physical stuff that can't be coached away, it is a recipe for disaster the longer he is in there as the fill-in starter.   

QB2's have a shelf life as starters, it is just a fact, and his is getting long in the tooth.

5 minutes ago, HoggLife said:

Bro we need to hook up. I throw disc's too and got some cool stories. I've seen you on this site for years. I've moved around a lot. Grew up in Citrus Heights but moved away. I moved back a couple months ago for the 1st time in 25 years. I'm 7 minutes away from Shady Oaks. I have been around ES since like 2002ish. I tailgated with fans in San Diego like idk 12 years ago and then again in December of 2019 when I went to my 1st home game against the Giants where we lost but it helped us get Chase Young. This is also my 2nd time to this stadium. My 1st was the last time we played here. It doesn't compare to Candlestick. I have many great memories at Candlestick. Shoot me a text message. I'm a family man myself so even if we don't happen to meet up for this game we can throw docs or do some family stuff together. I always take my kids like hiking, to the lake, camping ect. My phone number is (209)303-9057 and my name is also Mike lol. 

I am part of a local tag group called Low Xpectations, we just wrapped our final tag round for 2022 last weekend but we are doing a New Years Eve  "Before the hangover" round on Saturday the 31st at Rocklin course, which I assume you know where it is.  We are always looking to expand the group, we are up to about 25ish people now.  This round is more unofficial for fun, the official stuff starts back up in January.  If you're interested, I'll shoot you a text and/or you can look up Low Xpectations group on facebook.  

Yeah I am a family man now too, don't get to throw discs like I used to and my game has suffered because of it.  I used to be the guy who'd always have a change of clothes in the car and hit the course after work, now I am picking the kids up from school instead.  But I still manage to get out there (various courses) on most Saturdays. 

Candlestick definitely had the character & history.  I was there in 1999 for the OT win to clinch the NFC East, that was actually my first NFL game ever. I like Levi well enough, but I also think part of it is because of how new it still looks & feels.  

*cheers*

If anyone is on twitter (still) there are usually daily twitter spaces for Commanders fans to talk about all things related to the team, pre game, post game, weekly victory or defeat therapy sessions.  We also invite fans of our opponent in for "war rooms" where we give predictions and analysis for why we think what we think.   It is pretty fun.  They can get a bit spicy sometimes, more so the War room spaces, but for the most part it's just to chat with fans about the team. 

If anyone is interested, feel free to join any time, even if you just want to pop in as a listener and don't want to talk.

1 hour ago, HoggLife said:

Anyone tailgatting at the 49ers game? I'd love to hang out with other ES crew there 

I'll be at the game with my daughter and father in law. I see you're in Sac. I'm in Orangevale. 

Oh nice! I was supposed to be going with a bigger group but once the schedule released and they all saw Christmas Eve....it scared them away.  In fact, I wasn't going to go to the game, but out of character I decided at the last minute to say what the hell and go anyway.  Yeah I know Orangevale, I throw discs at shady oaks frequently.  

Not sure how long you have been around these forums, but I used to be a big tailgater and helped organize the events when the team hit any of the west coast opponents, but I was young & single with more disposable income back then.  Seems like a lifetime ago at this point.  I grabbed a parking pass for the Green Lot, it is in the non-tailgating section, just because for this specific game it is more about getting out of there ASAP after the game because it can be a nightmare.  At least the game is at 1pm so it'll be over by later afternoon and we should be home in time for a "proper Christmas eve"  

I'll admit I am little more dejected going into this game than I would have been had they beat the NYG.  Not that it would have made a huge difference regarding my thoughts on this game, but I think my demeanor would have been different and less stressed.  

This will be my second time at the Stadium, first to see The Commanders.  Hoping for a big upset, but I am also realistic when matching these two teams up with the current available rosters.  If the game is competitive and in question going into the 4th quarter, I will be content. 

I predict..............that I will be there!  Yes it is true, I will be in Levi Stadium to watch this.

Honesty, the only path to victory I see is if we can be the team (defense) that is the first to make Purdy look like a rookie QB selected last in the draft.  I know he has looked very good on ESPN and NFL network, but if you've watched him beyond that, he is throwing plenty of troublesome passes and has sort of had that TH-type luck where DB's just keep dropping them.  The key will be containing CMC so Purdy isn't enjoying 3rd & short every single time.  Force Purdy to shoulder more of the offense and see if the defense can grab a couple turnovers.

Would love to see Chase Young out there, but I'm not counting on it.

I sort of already regret shelling out the money for this because I told myself not to do it unless the team beat the NYG last week, but I already had to miss seeing the Commanders last time they were here (The Chase Young fumble return for a TD game) so I figure why not.  This is the first time I will have seen the team in person playing a meaningful game in December since 2005 in Arizona.   I also am going to approach the game stress free as I am not expecting them to win, and more just holding out a sliver of hope for the unexpected.

Anyone else out here in NorCal going?

I get the reasons why TH might have been seen as the better option at one time, but I don't really see the style of offense he runs as being very effective against the 49ers defense.

The running game will attempt to do it's thing, but the 49ers have the #1 run defense so assuming every 2nd and 3rd down are going to be a fight, that short passing game is going to be very cut throat against a fast & hard hitting linebacking core, especially if TH isn't throwing the ball on tight lines with some velocity.

The only real hole in the 49ers defense right now is their secondary, which isn't even bad, but down some starters.  

Our offense has the skill position players to get a lot of yards, but you have to be able to hit on those bigger passes.  

Not saying Wentz would be super effective either due to the 49ers pass rush, but at least his ability to push the ball vertically downfield with velocity could be an asset.

If Rivera is adamant about TH starting the game, fine.....but I won't be surprised if he is benched at some point.  Rivera sort of came out and said the 3rd quarter TD drive by TH saved him from being benched last week.

I am getting tired of Rivera say the same thing every week.  Look, Heinicke is in there because supposedly his mobility is supposed to aid the O-line (it hasn't that  much) and because he is supposed to know the offense extremely well.  The way he is missing reads and making bad decisions, it sure doesn't seem like he knows the offense that well.

The reasons for keeping him in there are running thin.  The cons are outweighing the pros. 

The screen shots don't show enough?  They show the DE biting on the hand off.  What else do they need to show? 

It sounds like Ron is right up to the line in the sand to make a change at QB, I just wonder why Ron would even give Heinicke the entire 49ers job to save his job.  If Heinicke gets out to another mediocre start, but the game is still in doubt going into halftime, just bench him then.  This isn't like throwing a rookie out there into a pressure situation. Wentz, like him or not is a vet QB that should be able to handle the situation.....as well as he could behind this O-line that is.  

I don't think Wentz is any kind of magic pill at this point, but there's just too much being left on the field at this point.  At the time of season you need to be playing your best, Heinicke is regressing and/or just not improving on the small things. 

It's like everyone forgot last season when after rattling off a handful of wins, the same thing happened with Heinicke.  That is what happens when a QB2 who's ceiling is QB2 plays for an extended amount of time.   No matter how much experience he gets, how many reps, how many film rooms, his ceiling is not rising.

The 49ers front 7 is elite, their secondary is good when healthy but they are banged up.  You are going to see the difference between a good D-line vs an actual complete front 7 when we face them Saturday.  If we had a better O-line and QB, then I would have more confidence in the 49ers game because right now you can definitely throw the ball on them, but the QB needs time and also needs....to be a good QB. 

The 49ers might be the first team we face in a long time that makes our run game pedestrian.  BRob might still end up with decent numbers because I expect his number of carries to be way higher in that game, but I am not so sure he is going to have a high ypc in that game.   

What's unfortunate is we actually have the talent at the skill positions to give the 49ers problems, but we lack the two most important pieces, a QB & and O-line to protect the QB.

If you think last night was messy, wait until you see this offense try to operate against a defense that can actually stop the run.  

I couldn't even bring myself to participate in the gameday thread.   At 3-7.....it was another case of looking at the stats to see one team dominating, yet the scoreboard showed the opposite.

Two weeks, including a bye week to prepare for this opponent, and THAT is what they brought?  

I don't even know what to say that would be constructive at this point.

I'll just say this, nothing about last night changes my opinion on where the team is headed big picture as long as they keep drafting and building, however what last night does show is that they are still a couple of offseasons away and the problems they do have aren't ones that are very fixable within this season.

If I want to bring myself more pain & disappointment I can look at the playoff math and say, hey a win over the Browns and maybe we catch a Dallas team resting Week 18 and we end up  9-7-1 and sneak into the 7th seed, however I am not expecting that to happen.

I'll have more to say, with more specifics later.....but for now.....ugh.

We have to just believe at this point that the injuries are a little worse than we intially thought.  Not so much with Chase, we knew the magnitude of that one, but guys like St Juste....if the bye week wasn't enough, then it's a pretty legit sprain. 

The O-line being addressed also affects the QB position though.  There is a big what if regarding had Wentz never got hurt, and he was playing when the O-line finally had that month and a half or so of consistency, plus BRob emerging and become a threat.   I am in no way suggesting Wentz would have balled out necessarily, just that we really have to let go of the idea that Heinicke is in there for much else other than circumstance.   If you address the O-line, then for all we know it isn't going to be Wentz or Heinicke....or even Howell starting Week 1 2023, and they go grab another vet.   

This O-line currently is so detrimental to the passing game that if you fix it, it opens up a ton of options that the coaches likely feel safe going with, but I highly doubt they decide after 2 offseason's of trying to replace him, that QB2 Heinicke suddenly becomes the choice.  

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Tough for me to guess which attitude is the better one for this game.  I read the NY sports pages (as a Yankee fan) almost everyday that includes reading Giants players quotes -- and they definitely rhetroic wise seem really amped up for this game and more so than the typical game.  But I agree if they are too tight, if things start going awry for the Giants they might press. 

I mean lets consider the situation, there is no reason for either team not to be super amped up for the game.  It's an NFC East division game in December with the loser's playoff chances pretty much dropping from 80% to under 50% if they lose.  If either team isn't extremely amped up for this, I am not sure how else you get them amped.  I also think another aspect to consider is how often is Fed Ex rocking lately?  Not just well attended, but that actual crazy loud non-stop playoff atmosphere?  That could help the Commanders defense if the Giants try to pull something like going pass heavy early.  A couple false starts or holding penalties early.......

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

Finlay made an observation similar to my take from reading the NY papers this week.

 

A.  Giants are coming at this game as if the world ends if they lose, be all and end all, they come off very determined but also tight

 

B.  Commanders, some rhetoric about this being the ball and end all but they come off a bit looser than the Giants headed for this one. 

Only issue with scenario A is if our defense forces a turnover early, or if the offense comes out efficiently like the first game, maybe the Giants start pressing or pushing panic button too early and they end up making mistakes on the field.

I honestly expect both teams to look the same for the most part as far as the gameplan.  If there is one team that has more options to adjust it is the Commanders because of all the weapons they have. all the pre snap motion they do etc etc.....the Giants besides Barkley who isn't 100% and DJ's legs.....what exactly else are they going to be able to focus on making happen with any kind of consistency?