NoCalMike

I got my eye on a pair of tickets for next Saturday at Levi Stadium, but I am holding out for a win tomorrow night first.  I just see the game tomorrow night as basically being our "tea leaves" game.  Win, and they likely only need 1 more win to secure a playoff spot, that way I can go to the 49ers game with the attitude of whatever happens, happens, and I am just happy to be able to watch the team in person.  If they lose, then suddenly they are scrambling to possibly need 2 out of their last 3 games to be wins.....and that 49ers game could send them back to .500.    

The problem is Heinicke is a QB2 and his ceiling is also that, and some of the fans and even media are holding onto hope that he is going to suddenly develop into something else with more reps. Now you can point to our specific circumstances, mainly O-line, as to why Rivera might be giving Heinicke a longer leash, but to me it is just not even a debate, argument, or conversation about who is the better QB if the O-line was capable of any kind of pass protection consistently.   

In fact, I am surprised at how seemingly surprised some of this fan base would be if Heinicke got benched.  

I still think the coaches view Wentz as the better QB, but they are between a rock & a hard place because the team is winning despite the poor QB play, but last game against the Giants they teetered so close to the QB play (not saying that is the only reason) causing a loss that I think it is absurd that so many folks find it out of the question that they would go back to Wentz assuming they thought the O-line was better suited to protect. 

I still am having flashbacks to the first game, in OT, when we marched right to midfield like it was nothing at all, then bumbled our way backwards.  The first game was about missed opportunities.  I don't think the Giants showed much in that game to suggest they were a "few plays away" where as the Commanders racked up 400 yards of offense and have a few clear aspects that if they shore up should lead to a win.  

Snyder's issues go well beyond the play on the field and a winning team isn't going to change the reasons for why he is being pushed out.  I do sort of wonder if in Snyder's head, if he sees the team winning and potential to be a bigger contender next season.....does he try to drag out the process longer in order to possibly escape with a trophy.

I am just an idiot fan, but the way I take Ron's comments on Chase are that physically he is ready, as far as the injury being healed, however what Chase needs is the mental hurdle to trust his body again.  Now what's interesting to me is that usually that mental hurdle has to happen with reps on the field in an actual game, right?  The player has to go out there, get bodied up by the opponent, and almost inadvertently be forced into using the body part that was repaired and after a few instances of that where they realize "oh look, that didn't hurt at all, and I was actually able to push off on that leg" etc etc......I am wondering if Rivera understands this, but because of a combination of how the D-line is playing already and the fact that most of our games are so razor-thin close, that Ron doesn't want to sacrifice any reps in games that he doesn't absolutely have to, and maybe he's worried that putting Chase out there in the normal mental state of a player coming back from this kind of injury, could cost them some potential big plays.

Now if at this point it isn't THAT or something along those lines, then I give up assuming that Chase is even physically ready. 

The 49ers didn't look the same with Purdy at QB.  In fact their passing offense very much resembled ours for a lot of the game, complete with Purdy throwing a few passes right into defender's hands that just happened to drop them.  One even looked like a likely pick 6.   That said, the 49ers O-line gives Purdy all day to throw so while he may look inexperienced and frantic for a couple of quarters, he will still hit Kittle with a nice pass downfield when the guy gets open.   Jimmy G is better than Heinicke but even he is a borderline QB1. He is good enough to be a bridge, but I'd never pay Jimmy G the kind of money you have to commit to a multiple year franchise QB.  He also runs a WCO behind a pretty good O-line.  

Now looking to our match up against the 49ers, the O-line is the problem.  I don't care what QB we have back there, they are going to be rushed, pressured, hit, & sacked a lot.  The question is what do you think has a better chance of combatting a pass rush like that, Heinicke's mobility that he sort of uses sometimes, but not nearly as much as he used to and/or that we hoped he'd still be....or Wentz's arm that can flick the ball over the top of a defense with a banged up secondary that has been shown they can be thrown on by teams with lesser skill position players than we have?

The answer right now is likely neither, unfortunately because the O-line has been that bad.   

However, what concerns me about Heinicke are the throws he is (or also actually isn't) making when he does have good protection.  I also am worried that a lot of his shorter passes, the way he throws the ball so softly, are going to be broken up a lot against that defense.

I think it could be a game where both defenses are dominating, but our defense ends up gassed by the 3rd quarter and gives up a score or two and while the score might not show a dominant win for the 49ers, what it did show is that the Commanders never really did anything to threaten in the game.

2 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Who exactly is afraid to admit that $28M and the picks would be the better option?  I don’t think anyone is clamoring for Wentz to right some wrong.

 

I don’t think anyone expected Turner to adopt this run-heavy offense with consistent first read gimmes, or that the defense would be playing as well as it has.  Bottom line, nobody would expect this team to be winning ball games with stat lines like Heinicke puts up week to week.  He doesn’t look improved as a player, I’d argue he actually looks worse.  Add to that we’ve been unusually fortunate this season.  

 

If Heinicke wasn’t playing pedestrian ball, nobody would be speculating about Wentz.  I’ve yet to even see anyone all that confident that Wentz is the answer.  This is just what happens when fans watch bad QB play, whether the team is winning or losing - naturally folks would like to see someone else.

 

 

Yes. This.  The point is that Heinicke isn't playing that well CURRENTLY, but the team is winning despite of it.  We need to stop comparing the entire team now to what the entire team looked like during the first six weeks.  The defense has come on as monsters, and Brian Robinson returning and taking a couple of games to get his legs really transformed this running game.  The more I look at the running game, the more I tend to think had Robinson not come back so quick (if at all this season) and Gibson was still shouldering 75-90% of the burden, then the running game wouldn't be half as good as it is now which in turn would reflect on Heinicke as well.

I don't think anyone is arguing that Wentz looked great before he was injured, nor does anyone suggest that we should bring Wentz back in and go back to the kind of offense we were running before Heinicke came in.

The question people don't seem to want to address is whether or not Wentz has a better chance to succeed in the present version of the offense that runs the ball at a much higher clip and also with a defense that isn't giving up as much points as they were the first two months, because the run-heavy offense certainly hasn't made Heinicke any better outside of perhaps giving him less chances to throw an ill advised pass, but his actual play isn't any better and wouldn't be seen as acceptable if the rest of the team wasn't carrying dude over the finish line most of the time.

Howell vs Wentz as the backup are two completely different situations.  I don't think the coaches want Howell to see the field this season, unless it was an emergency no choice situation.  So all these previous weeks where Heinicke was playing mediocre but the team was winning, there was never a scenario Howell was coming in unless Heinicke was hurt.  However, now you have an actual QB1 behind Heinicke, so it is fair to ask if the leash on your QB2 is about to get shorter.

Lets say on Sunday the team goes into halftime down by a TD & Heinicke had a 7 for 15 70 yards & INT in the first half.  I wouldn't be so sure that Wentz wouldn't be coming in for the 2nd half. 

The way Rivera answers questions about the QB situation it seems like he is indirectly saying that now that Wentz is healthy, he wants him coached up and ready for the inevitable switch, but also feels that it is "right thing to do" in letting Heinicke keep starting until the team loses again.   

Now I think the Giants are a beatable opponent even with Heinicke at QB, but I also think that with Wentz healthy and on the sideline vs Howell, it is going to make Heinicke's leash a lot shorter, so maybe he throws a pick or the coaches just seem him missing too many opportunities out there, and because there is a legitimate option sitting there ready to come in, the switch could come at any time. 

The 49ers defense is going to be a tough task for any QB, especially with the current O-line, but I could also see Heinicke remaining the starter going into that game (assuming they beat the Giants this week) and Rivera letting Heinicke go out and have a rough half or even full game and using it as justification to put Wentz back in as the starter.

8 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

"Likely"? lol...

 

Well I used that term because I think it would still be too early to rule out some of the more zany mathematical possibilities.

The reason why the Giants game is so pivotal is because out of the 3 remaining games, 2 of them are against NFC Contenders and they likely would need to upset one of them to get to 9 wins.  If they beat the Giants then to get to 9 wins, they likely just need 1 more win between the 49ers, Browns, & Cowboys.   Needing to only win 1 of the last 3 versus 2 of the last 3 is huge.

9 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

9 wins with one against the Giants basically guarantees us a playoff spot. It would take TWO out of the three between the Lions, Seahawks, and Giants getting 10 wins to knock us out.

I also want to be in a situation where we can look at the performance against the 49ers as a barometer for how we will look against potential playoff caliber teams during the stretch where every team is looking to play their best football.  There is a chance that they end up matched up against the 49ers in the first round, and I wouldn't mind having already seen what the two teams have for each other.  

Their chances to win have gone up due to Purdy being the QB, but that team is so stacked and so well coached that it is going to be a tough one regardless of who is under center.

I think we are in if we beat the Giants & Browns. 9 wins will get us at least the 7th seed.  Beating the 49ers and/or Cowboys would be bonus wins and possible nab us a higher seed.  If they lose to either the Giants or Browns then they have to go and win a game they're definitely going to be underdogs going into.  The Cowboys could be resting some starters Week 18 which could help the cause.

11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Albert Breer

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/12/12/falcons-desmond-ridder-qb-change

 

Commanders coach Ron Rivera’s decision to stick with Taylor Heinicke with four weeks left in the season and a showdown with the Giants looming Sunday night virtually assures that Wentz will be a free agent in March.

Wentz’s current contract includes a $20 million base for 2023, and a $5 million roster bonus that’s due in mid-March. That means the Commanders will need to make a decision on Wentz by then and, seeing as he’s not even starting anymore, it’s a good bet that decision will be to release him at that time.

Where Wentz goes from there will be interesting, since he doesn’t fit the traditional mold for an NFL backup quarterback. It feels like it’d almost have to be with a team bringing him in to be the placeholder for a high draft pick, like Sam Bradford once was for him.

If the coaches are planning on handing the reigns over to Howell in 2023 and keeping Heinicke as a back up (who is also a FA at end of season I believe?) Then okay, but if they are flirting with bringing Heinicke back to be the starter while they continue the search for a franchise QB? Nah.

I still am sticking with my theory that the O-line is the main factor in sticking with Heinicke over Wentz.  I don't think the coaches think Heinicke is a better QB than Wentz by any means, but I do think they think Wentz is not suited to succeed with this Oline.  It's not like Heinicke is lighting it up behind the Oline either, nor is he really being any kind of duel threat with his legs necessarily, I just think the coaches feel weighing each QB's pros & cons, they feel Heinicke's pros are a better fit right now. 

I think the major questions going into the offseason at the QB position, is whether the coaches think Howell is franchise QB caliber and/or if he is ready to begin the journey as the starter in 2023.   If their minds are made up that he is ready to start Week 1 next season, I think that gives you more flexibility with how you approach the back up spot.

I am telling ya'll we do not want Jimmy G running this offense, unless they basically mimicked the style of plays being called for Heinicke.  He is not a vertical passer, he excels in the WCO, a quick timing based offense where he drops back 3 steps, makes his read and gets rid of the ball.  That stuff you saw Wentz doing earlier in the year before the O-line got hurt?  That isn't Jimmy G.    

If Scott Turner is still the OC after this season, and at this point I think he will be, Jimmy G is not the QB to run it.

I don't know what team will do it, but I really want the Eagles to lose one more game before Week 18.  If they go into that game having something to play for it would be big for us.

The current identity is necessity due to the O-line.  Going into the season the offense we see now is not what the plan was, but things had to get modified.  Once the O-line is fixed (hopefully in the offseason) and the QB position is upgraded, we will see more of what the coaches were intending.  The best part is they can keep much of the running game the way it is, but the passing game will be more dynamic.

Here is where I am at with Howell.  Realistically it is too early to make any final judgement.  The guy has the physical tools, but so do most QBs that are drafted.

This is what I will say though, assuming Wentz is gone after this season, that leaves Howell & Heinicke on the roster (is Heinicke a FA too though?).

Through Heinicke's entire time here he has been mostly ranging from average to mediocre.  He has no arm, his footwork is not good, he often throws off his back foot, his size affects his ability to see the field in the pocket (that would be the one area Howell could have an issue with too, tbh) and if you are watching the tape after the games, he is missing things out there that leaves points on the board.  I am not talking about plays that the defense blows up, but rather plays where he has a pocket, but simply locks onto someone pre snap and never even seems to look the other way.  He misses easy throws like Logan being wide open, and he also completely missed Dotson in the endzone after he worked a defender on a drive they had to settle on a FG from the 5 yard line.  Heinicke is out there primarily for 2 reasons, his mobility can buy an extra half second or so, and his knowledge of the offense.  Otherwise, the guy has no business out there.

Howell being a 5th round pick who needs to work on some mechanics, I can understand why he isn't playing this season, it makes sense, however if you are telling me he needs more than a single offseason in order to go out and play as well as Heinicke is right now?  I'd be concerned with what the coaches think his ceiling is. 

Before the Jimmy G injury, I felt like the 49ers would be the team every opponent would have hated to face in the first round, especially teams like Dallas & Minnesota.  That big physically powerful (and super fast) defense that can take so much of what you want to do away.  Now with Purdy in there, it will be interesting to see how much they are going to put on his plate should teams start selling out to stop the run game.  He looked good in relief, but that isn't abnormal, and it will a situation to keep an eye on after the kid has more film on him available to coordinators.

As far as the Eagles vs Giants this week goes?  I look for the Giants to approach with a similar game plan as we did and I am very interested to see what sort of adjustments the Eagles will make in combatting it.  The main difference is the Giants don't have the array of skill position players for Jones to throw to and I think that will be their ultimate undoing in the game. 

I think too sometimes people confuse being mobile with being a "running threat" at QB.   Even earlier in this season Wentz was sometimes taking off on scrambles and gaining positive yards.  It wasn't like he was unable to do it in certain situations, but I wouldn't call him mobile at all (at least not since his injuries).  I've seen our defense through the years give up plenty of scramble yards to QB's not known as being mobile QBs.   

Some QB's you have to gameplan for their mobility, but for the other QB's it doesn't mean they can't or won't do it when they have to, it just isn't something that they regularly do. 

I am thinking the coaches are viewing the Heinicke vs Wentz QB situation more due to the state of the O-line.  I have to believe if the O-line was better, like even middle of the pack in the NFL then Wentz would be starting once he is healthy.  Heinicke's play has just been too mediocre to justify keeping him in there.  

The bigger question is do the coaches still see value in bringing back Wentz for a season or two while revamping the O-line, if they feel Howell needs more time to develop behind the scenes. 

I'd be interested too if the mood on Heinicke changes drastically if one of these games where he throws 3-4 "turnover worthy passes" actually end up as turnovers.  With how close most of these games have been, any one of those pass attempts being picked off could have changed the outcome.  I know we can't play the what-if game, but since it is happening every game, the odds are that they will run into a game or two in the future where those types of passes do end up as turnovers. The 49ers game could get super ugly in that way, really quick.

If Chase Young could play QB, he'd have been playing a month ago. 😬