CNNSI: Overrated/Underrated

[Neophyte]

I won't reprint the whole of Stewart Mandel's article here but I did think the Overrated QB section warranted printing with all the talk of taking Jason Campbell at #25. The rest of the article can be viewed by following the provided link...

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/writers/stewart_mandel/04/20/underated.overrated/index.html

Overrated/Underrated

The '05 NFL Draft class' future flops and hidden gems

by Stewart Mandel

Welcome to my third annual Overrated/Underrated NFL Draft column.

Two years ago, league personnel directors would have been smart to take some of my advice, which included Jacksonville Jaguars QB Byron Leftwich and Carolina Panthers cornerback Ricky Manning Jr. among the underrated and thus-far disastrous 49ers tackle Kwame Harris among the overrated. Last year, GMs would have been better off drawing names out of a hat than listening to me, who foolishly deemed two rookie standouts, Lions receiver Roy Williams and Bears defensive tackle Tommie Harris, as overrated at their positions, and a guy who never made it off a practice squad, former West Virginia running back Quincy Wilson, as underrated.

Everyone's entitled to one down year, though, so here's guessing the 2005 edition will be nothing short of fool proof.

Quarterback

Overrated: Jason Campbell, Auburn

There's no denying Campbell was as good as any quarterback in the country his senior season and arguably the most important contributor to the Tigers' 13-0 season. At nearly 6-foot-5 and with a strong release, he's physically impressive. But one strong year shouldn't completely override the three previous, weak ones. For most of his career, Campbell struggled with the mental aspect of the game, making poor decisions and struggling to pick up offensive schemes. He finally thrived in the West Coast offense employed by his fourth coordinator in as many years, Al Borges, but several of Borges' predecessors found themselves simplifying their playbooks as much as possible to appease Campbell. As SI.com's Peter King reported last week, Campbell scored a less-than-impressive 14 on his first attempt at the Wonderlic test last year. NFL coaches won't have the time or patience to wait another four years for him to grasp a pro offense.

Underrated: Stefan LeFors, Louisville

Nine times out of 10, when a prospect is rated substantially lower than his college production should merit, it's because of his size. In LeFors' case, he stands just over 6 feet -- about three inches shorter than most of the players rated ahead of him. When are NFL people ever going to get over this misconception that you have to be 6-4 to be a successful pro quarterback? Hello? Drew Brees? Doug Flutie? Once you get past the height, it's impossible to ignore LeFors' ridiculous production as a college QB, including a staggering 73.5 completion percentage last season. In his most impressive performance, at the Orange Bowl against Miami on Oct. 14, LeFors completed 17 of 22 passes for 242 yards and three touchdowns before leaving the game with a concussion. On one touchdown pass he used his eyes and motion to throw off 'Canes CB Antrel Rolle, who's only expected to be a top-10 pick.

[DonMagicJuan]

i like that

"LeFors completed 17 of 22 passes for 242 yards and three touchdowns before leaving the game with a concussion. On one touchdown pass he used his eyes and motion to throw off 'Canes CB Antrel Rolle, who's only expected to be a top-10 pick."

very interesting...means that rolle can be burned EASILY

[Oldskool]

Overrated: Mark Clayton, Oklahoma

At a position where size does matter, Clayton's dainty frame (5-10, 193 pounds) allows physical defensive backs to push him around, which is exactly what happened in Oklahoma's last two bowl games (four catches, 21 yards against USC; four catches, 32 yards against LSU). Clayton does have nice speed and was a solid playmaker in college, particularly during a dominant junior season in which he had 83 catches for 1,425 yards and 15 touchdowns. But as defenses got more physical with him last season, Jason White found himself going to other receivers more often, causing Clayton's production to drop to 66 catches, 876 yards and eight touchdowns.

[Oldskool]

Defensive line

Overrated: Erasmus James, Wisconsin

Admittedly, James was the most dominant pass rusher in the country the first half of last season, including a clinic against Purdue in which the Boilers wound up using their running back as an extra blocker just to try and slow him down. But the four, injury-riddled years before that, James was at best an average player, and after sustaining an ankle injury in that Purdue game, he was largely a non-factor the rest of the way, particularly in the Outback Bowl against Georgia. Certainly he's shown the potential to be an elite player, which is why he remains so high on so many draft boards, but it's generally dangerous to bank on players who have had such small windows of brilliance. They can just as easily become flashes in the pan.

Underrated: Mike Patterson, USC

Besides Matt Leinart, Patterson, even more so than fellow defensive tackle Shaun Cody, was the single most important piece of the Trojans' consecutive national title teams. Trojans head coach Pete Carroll raved on numerous occasions of Patterson's unique ability to disrupt opposing offenses by exploding into the backfield to make one big play after another. Imagine my surprise, then, when I loaded up Don Banks' most recent first-round projection and saw Oklahoma tackle Jammal Brown -- whom Patterson bulldozed in the Orange Bowl -- but no Patterson. The reason, of course, is that he's undersized -- just shy of 6 feet, three inches shorter than most prospects at his position. But what he lacks in height, he makes up for both in width (292 pounds, about the same as top-ranked tackle Travis Johnson) and unmatched quickness, and I find it hard to believe a guy who was so dominant at such a high level in college won't become at least a reliable starter at the next level, one worthy of a first-round pick.

[Oldskool]

Defensive back

Overrated: Fabian Washington, Nebraska

Every year there's that one "workout wonder" who manages to drive up his draft stock solely because of his 40 time. Washington is that guy this year, having dazzled league types with his blazing 4.29 burst at the combine, best of the event. Kudos to him. Washington had his moments at Nebraska, but he was hardly what you would call a lock-down cover guy. In fact, teams managed to pass for 268 yards per game against the Huskers last year -- eighth-worst nationally -- despite the presence of Washington and similarly touted DB Josh Bullocks. And scouts openly acknowledge that Washington is weak in run support. So basically, he's a first-round pick because he can run fast. I didn't realize the NFL had added a halftime track-meet to its games.

Underrated: Ernest Shazor, Michigan

The same factor, speed -- in this case a subpar, 4.7 40 -- is what's dragging down Shazor's stock. Never mind that, as a junior last season, he was without question the most disruptive player on the Wolverines' defense, making a team-high 84 tackles, 10 tackles for loss and forcing and recovering two fumbles. His punishing hit and accompanying strip of Purdue receiver Dorian Bryant in the final minutes preserved a 16-14 road win over the Boilermakers. An incredible athlete with ideal stature (6-4, 228), Shazor is being pegged as a second-round pick at best. Personally, with the exception of Georgia's Thomas Davis, who has future All-Pro written all over him, I'd take Shazor over any other safety.

[heyholetsgogrant]

How is Jason Campbell overarted?, this guy is not even been discussed at all, untill yesterday when the skins made the trade. Theirs was talk he could fall to the middle of the second round.

[bobzmuda]

So because Campbell wasn't successful in dumbed down offenses, yet managed to be amazingly successful in a more complicated offense makes him overrated? The offensive coordinators at Auburn before Borges were a joke. To place more emphasis on Campbell's performance with inadequate coordinators than on his performance in a more complicated and succesful offense seems counter-intuitive.

[Dah-Dee]

Campbell scored a 14 on the Wonderlic? Holy Crap. A QB with a 14 on the Wonderlic??? Yeah, I saw where he got it up to a 28 on his second try, but still.... holy crap. Is this the kind of super-smart player Gibbs is always talking about? Worth trading away multiple picks to get him? Yikes.

[Neophyte]

Originally posted by bobzmuda

So because Campbell wasn't successful in dumbed down offenses, yet managed to be amazingly successful in a more complicated offense makes him overrated? The offensive coordinators at Auburn before Borges were a joke. To place more emphasis on Campbell's performance with inadequate coordinators than on his performance in a more complicated and succesful offense seems counter-intuitive.

To me, the point there is less what he did before last year but rather that the only offense he was successful in was the West Coast. Gibbs runs a very complex offense that is NOT West Coast, in fact is the opposite of West Coast when it is really clicking. Campbell has issues with other types of offense or so it seems and he did not do well on the mental aptitude tests at the combine. Smart is important to Gibbs. It is the one thing all three of the Super Bowl winning QB's had in common. They were all smart.

[SkinsandCanes]

On one touchdown pass he used his eyes and motion to throw off 'Canes CB Antrel Rolle, who's only expected to be a top-10 pick."

Wrong. On that play Rolle had man to man coverage with the outside receiver. The slot man cut outside, but his man went with the outside receiver who ran a slant. It was a mistake by one of Miami's inexperienced corners, it wasn't Rolles fault. But why would they report the truth, it doesn't sound as good.