New Article Debating Value of Rod Gardner - Trevor Walters (MidAtlanticSports.net)

[RedskinLifer]

The Going Rate for a Bad Gardner

by: Trevor Walters

The case has been made by me, as well as many others, that Rod Gardner should be traded, and then subsequently replaced with a faster, more reliable receiver. But assuming this is the plan, exactly what can we expect to get in exchange? He was, after all, a first round draft pick, and while he hasn’t panned out as we had all hoped, he also hasn’t pulled a Trev Alberts and completely disappeared soon after draft day.

I am of the belief, and I intend to support my position, that we can and should get a second round draft pick in exchange for Rod. Before you point it out, let me fully acknowledge the irony in my defense of the ransom I believe we could demand in light of my frequent criticism of his play. From time to time, I acknowledge that I have used a hyperbole or two in my descriptions of the less than consistent nature of Gardner’s play. That very well may play a large part in his apparent value, at least if you draw that value from anything I’ve written.

So, let’s look at him as objectively as possible. He is still young (27) in NFL years and has a history of durability having never missed a game due to injury. He has a relatively low cap number, and will be in a contract season, so a tangible increase in productivity is almost to be expected. There could also be that glad-to-be-in-a-different-environment euphoria that can lead to a hike in production.

He has been a 1000 yard receiver (2002), and is by any measure a good blocker from the receiver spot. Though I would not classify him as a number one receiver, he has occupied that role, so experience is also in his favor. He has excellent size, and although he can’t be counted on to consistently bring in the routine pass, he has shown a stunning propensity to make the incredible catch. Because of his size, he also is a legitimate threat once in the red zone. Rod also has the same characteristic that most good receivers have in that he really believes that he should be getting the ball. His is a memory shorter than Todd Pinkston’s arms, so usually the ball that he just dropped escapes his memory rather quickly.

So, if you are a GM in the NFL, what would Gardner be worth to you? I little look at the recent past shows that I might be close to the mark. The Jets acquired wideout Justin McCareins from the Titans for a second round pick. Statistically, McCareins is not the player that Gardner is, though he (McCareins) did have that element of increasing production that could have lead Jets brass to believe that a similar statistical increase may loom just around the horizon.

Keenan McCardell was traded to the Chargers from Tampa Bay for a third round choice as well as a fifth round selection. McCardell has clearly had the better career as compared to Gardner, but he is also on the downside of his career, and had a history of causing locker room friction, so his value is accordingly decreased. It could also be said of McCardell, a former Redskin draftee, than he benefited quite well from playing next to Jimmy Smith during his years in Jacksonville, kind of like Peerless Price did while in Buffalo with then teammate Eric Moulds.

Gardner compiled his 1000 yard season while starting next to a much lesser threat.

Having established the going rate for decent receivers, I believe that Rod compares more accurately with McCareins. Pretend for a minute that you are a GM of a team in desperate need of a receiver. With your second round pick, you can take a chance on the unknown production of a rookie, or you could swap the pick for a guy with a 1000 yard season under his belt, and is still a mere 27. The difference in age is only slightly more than the average NFL learning curve for a wide receiver, so if that is your hang up, then you should find another line of reasoning.

As with any personnel move in today’s NFL, as a GM you would also have to be pleased with the cap number that Gardner brings, which is reasonable as far as receivers are concerned. Gardner has that aura about him that would lead you to believe that he will one day, be it here or with another team, demand more money than management thinks him to be worth, so that should also be considered, if only for the sake of fairness in the argument.

The question is now one of possible destinations. Off of the top of my head, the ideal scenario for Rod in my mind would be a team in which he doesn’t have to be the top dog, but one in which he is surrounded by other talented players. For example, Cleveland or Chicago would both be bad places, whereas Kansas City or Cincinnati would be prime destinations.

Rod would also be an excellent compliment receiver for a team such as Jacksonville, or Houston, where a good young receiver is already in place and only the Robin to his Batman is sought. In the case of the latter, adding a young veteran as opposed to a rookie might actually be preferred since the team as a whole is among the younger squads in the league.

Playing for a veteran-laden team, such as a New England, or Denver might benefit Rod personally, but I quite honestly don’t care if he even develops into a great receiver if he doesn’t do so as a Redskin. But really, no matter the age or makeup of the team that Rod calls home next season, the most important element of his success is that he not be the go-to guy. He can’t handle that role adequately, and we’ve seen the result when he is option one, so we’re all uniquely qualified to comment on that scenario.

Recently, there have been rumors that Tampa Bay may be interested in Gardner, especially since they have a multitude of draft picks with which to make a deal. I have long maintained that Jon Gruden is as much a genius as he is a giant, and his interest in Gardner proves that quite well. The Bucs have a good veteran core in place, but without a definite starter at quarterback, or a solid number one to place opposite Rod, it seems like he’d be entering another situation similar to the one he’s already in. But, if the Bucs want to take him off of our hands, then there will be a big smile on my face when that deal goes down.

In all honesty, this entire column may well be speculation. It seems obvious to even the most casual observer that our receiving corps needs an upgrade, and that Gardner is the best place to start. But just because it’s obvious doesn’t mean that it will happen. I just happen to have a strong opinion on the situation, and I believe that even if we have to settle for a third rounder, the deal should be made. Maybe a change of scenery is what Rod needs, but from where I stand, it is most certainly what we need.

Maybe you agree, maybe you don’t. I’m always interesting in the other line of thinking; however I’ve not seen a defense of Gardner that wasn’t weaker than French Civil Defense. I’ve said many times before that there is nothing that Rod offers that Darnerian McCants can’t also give us. No matter which side you find yourself on, we’re all aiming toward the same goal, and that’s the important thing. Check back next week for your weekly Redskins football fix. Hail to the Redskins!

Comments and questions can be sent to Trevor Walters at skins.fan@comcast.net

[Ernie5]

Interesting. It gets my hopes up that we could score a 2nd for Gardner, but I'd be very surprised -- given that everyone knows he's not really in our plans next year. I've said it before that I think he's WORTH a 2nd. Unlike some people on this board, I don't think Gardner is anywhere near useless; he just hasn't performed at a high level consistently (which is what you expect from a first round pick). He's shown flashes of dominance and can do a lot of things well, but his lapses are what most of us remember. I'd be more than pleased with a 3rd, but this McCairnes comparison is interesting. I think Gardner is a better talent than McCairnes, but I'm still hung up on (1) his production drop off since 2002 and (2) his maddening drops. I believe that other GMs would have the same hang ups, so I think a 2nd is very optimistic.

[@DCGoldPants]

If a team is in need of WR's. Ship out both Rod and McCants for a 2nd rounder.

[RedskinLifer]

I don't think that the group is in need of an overhaul. I believe that Gardner needs to be replaced, and that we need a playmaker in place of him. I won't name names because that's not the point of the thread, but we all know who's on the horizon.

I'd also really like to see Taylor Jacobs figure more into the plans next season.

[Pocono]

Would a team rather have 50/50 for one year at 1.5M or a chance at the next

K Colbert

A Boldin

B Johnson

A Randel El

A Bryant

D Branch

C Johnson

C Chambers

S Smith

for 4 years at a little above minimum salary?

[TheBeast36]

i totally think that if we could get a 2nd rounder for gardner then we will be well off. but since i dont think we can then i can only hope for at least a 3rd.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

i think we'll get a 3rd/4th for him.

i'd love to get a 2nd but just don't see it happening.

[Neophyte]

Originally posted by Pocono

Would a team rather have 50/50 for one year at 1.5M or a chance at the next

K Colbert

A Boldin

B Johnson

A Randel El

A Bryant

D Branch

C Johnson

C Chambers

S Smith

for 4 years at a little above minimum salary?

Or maybe they would like one of these fine gentelmen:

Charles Rogers

Bryant Johnson

David Terrell

Koren Robinson

Travis Taylor

R. Jay Soward

Face it, the draft is a crap shoot. You are likely to get one of the guys off my list in the first two rounds as you are one of the guys off of Pocono's list. At least Gardner has played at this level, shown he can catch (sometimes) and stay healthy.

[RedskinLifer]

Face it, the draft is a crap shoot. You are likely to get one of the guys off my list in the first two rounds as you are one of the guys off of Pocono's list. At least Gardner has played at this level, shown he can catch (sometimes) and stay healthy. [/b]

I think I alluded to this in the column, and it is a good point if I didn't. Rod is a known commodity, whereas a rookie isn't. Sure, they may be passing up on the next Anquan Boldin, but they may also be skipping over the Jaquez Green of 2005.

It is a gamble, so maybe someone won't want to risk it by passing on Rod and drafting.

[Zuck]

Reading all the positives he wrote about Gardner he almost made me believe for a little bit that he's a good receiver and we should keep him. Then I think about all the dropped balls and his poor routes and his lack of fire.

[RedskinLifer]

Originally posted by Zuck

Reading all the positives he wrote about Gardner he almost made me believe for a little bit that he's a good receiver and we should keep him. Then I think about all the dropped balls and his poor routes and his lack of fire.

It was tough to write objectively about him, but I tried. All of what I said was true, but what really matters is results, and he hasn't always consistently provided them.

I think we should get a 2nd, but I'm not certain we will. I do think that we'd be sanctioning robbery if we traded him for less than a 3rd.

[SkinsFTW]

Originally posted by Pocono

Would a team rather have 50/50 for one year at 1.5M or a chance at the next

K Colbert

A Boldin

B Johnson

A Randel El

A Bryant

D Branch

C Johnson

C Chambers

S Smith

for 4 years at a little above minimum salary?

Well McCariens went for a 2nd. Feely went for a 2nd also. Neither had really proven much, especially Feely who had started only 5-6 games for the Eagles and put up below average numbers.

[inmate running the asylum]

What Gardner is WORTH and what the Skins can GET are two different things. Most GM's around the country are well aware whats going on with the Skins. They know Gardner is on the outside looking in, and as any good poker player would do, they are going to bluff and lowball the Skins, knowing very well that we will take SOMETHING lower at the last minute.

Gardner may be worth a 2nd round pick according to logic, but I doubt we will NOW get more then a 4th round pick for him, because they KNOW the Skins have to get rid of him.

When was the last time the Skins got anything of CONSEQUENCE for any of their players in a trade? Bryan Johnson a 6th. :puke:

The Eagles didn't have to trade Feeley and the Dolphins knew it and therefore the Dolphins had to overpay.

[Ernie5]

Well McCariens went for a 2nd. Feely went for a 2nd also. Neither had really proven much, especially Feely who had started only 5-6 games for the Eagles and put up below average numbers.

Feeley for a 2nd is one of the biggest off-season mysteries ever. I don't know what Rick Spielman was thinking. One of the reasons the Dolphins are so bad. I don't think we use the Feeley deal as a litmus test -- Feeley should have gone for 4th or 5th rounder.

[jimster]

if someone wants him badly enough its reasonable to think we could get a 2nd, or maybe somehting like a 3rd and 7th.

Tampa was said to have their sights on him and they have 11 draft picks this year, so you they may be more willing to spend picks on him.

[Montilar]

We could possibly get a 2cd for him.

But to get a second we'd likely have to defer the pick until the 2006 draft. that'd be like a 3rd this year....

But I don't expect that second unless Gardner is included in some kind of deal involving more than GArdner.

[Boy2Der]

I think the point he made about McCariens is really good I think we can get a 2nd for him because we as fans of the team tend to typically make a player seem greater then what they really are and we also tend to make them much worse then what they are. Plus has anyone forgot the guy did catch five touchdown passes and has a nice average per catch I rather give him one more year because I really hate to see him go somewhere else and breakout.

[alaadin123]

Not all of his drops were his fault, we did have some very poorly thrown balls and a bit of a QB carousel going on, and we had a righty and a lefty at QB creating a diffrent spin on the ball, now some of the drops, he should have legitamately caught, basically...he's 50/50

[Chrisbob74]

Originally posted by inmate running the asylum

What Gardner is WORTH and what the Skins can GET are two different things. Most GM's around the country are well aware whats going on with the Skins. They know Gardner is on the outside looking in, and as any good poker player would do, they are going to bluff and lowball the Skins, knowing very well that we will take SOMETHING lower at the last minute.

Gardner may be worth a 2nd round pick according to logic, but I doubt we will NOW get more then a 4th round pick for him, because they KNOW the Skins have to get rid of him.

When was the last time the Skins got anything of CONSEQUENCE for any of their players in a trade? Bryan Johnson a 6th. :puke:

The Eagles didn't have to trade Feeley and the Dolphins knew it and therefore the Dolphins had to overpay.

They know the 'Skins have to get rid of him?

I disagree, the 'Skins would like to trade him but don't have to. They can take the chance that he will play for a new contract or to impress free agent suitors, his cap figure is managable. The main problem is he eats a roster spot for someone new they may want to bring in.

I see a compromise somewhere, maybe a 4th this year and a conditional pick in 2006 depending on how he plays/if he gets new deal off his new team.