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Rating The NFC


RedskinMoo

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Terry O-Neil has decided it's time to rate the NFC teams:

http://www.realteam.com/insiders/PublishedArticles/10597.jsp

Terry O'Neil Reporting

Posted: July 18, 2: 25 a.m. ET

Having ranked the AFC five weeks ago (see archive), our final stop on the off-season "tour" is an evaluation of the 15 NFC teams.

Level 1: Tampa Bay. Tony Dungy, nice man, will now show us whether or not he can coach. In his sixth season with the Bucs, he has the conference's best team.

GM Rich McKay has done his part, upgrading the quarterback spot with Brad Johnson and left tackle with rookie Kenyatta Walker while returning the defense virtually intact.

These moves were necessary, in part, to keep an offense/defense rift from breaking into open civil war. DT Warren Sapp is a strong, volatile personality who had seen enough of Shaun King at quarterback and Les Steckel as offensive coordinator.

When Sapp ripped the coaching staff last year, Dungy said not a word in reply. How firmly will he manage Sapp and his teammates under the pressure of great expectations?

Level 2: Philadelphia, New Orleans. No coincidence, Jim Haslett and Andy Reid got most of the votes last January for Coach of the Year.

Both were break-out teams in '00. Both should be favored to win their divisions this fall. Both feature super-talented quarterbacks and bedrock defenses.

Their home fields are as different as they can be. If Philadelphia and New Orleans meet in the post-season, the home venue will be an enormous advantage.

Level 3: New York Giants, St. Louis. Once opening-day lineups are established, we may find that the Giants have more money committed to their starters than any club in the League. The result is a woefully thin depth chart.

St. Louis will have to prove that it is vastly improved on defense. I don't believe it. Without some ability to stabilize shootout games, the Rams will be caught in an frenetic, endless loop. We saw last December how that movie ends.

Level 4: Green Bay, Minnesota, San Francisco. These are .500 teams, all flawed in some serious way, that will struggle to steal the last wild card.

San Francisco will be the most entertaining. Its young kids on defense will be scrambling, learning on the run. All three offenses are capable of detonating any Sunday, but the 49ers' attack has more nuance, more variety, and is thus more reliable.

Level 5: Detroit, Washington. The Lions probably have the greatest range of unpredictability. They could be anything from 5-11 to a playoff team, depending on QB Charlie Batch's synch with the new West Coast offense.

Washington, unable to beat either Philadelphia or New York, is condemned to 8-8 or worse. Will Marty Schottenheimer accept that fate and plan for the future? Or will he waste $3.625 million on Deion Sanders?

Level 6: Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Chicago, Dallas. Lots of dead weight in the NFC this year. It's a commentary on this bottom group to say that Arizona has the best chance to be competitive.

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Unable to beat Philly and NY?

Evidently, this guy hasn't watched NFC East football recently.

The Redskins beat the Giants in NY last year by 10 points and lost a shaver at Fedex 9-7 on a last second field goal miss. And this was during the Giants' magical ride to 12-4 when almost everything slipped into the cup for them.

As for the Eagles, the Skins beat them in Philly and lost here in another close game.

So, I don't know where these definite matchup predictions are coming from.

What are they based on?

With new starters at some important spots, the Redskins could match up better OR worse against these two teams.

But no one is going to know for sure until this year's team takes to the field for at least the preseason games.

Maybe we won't know how good this team is until mid-season with all the changes.

I think Green Bay is being overhyped. Yes they were 9-7 last year but are thin on both lines and their draft picks, Reynolds and Ferguson, are given a big free pass by some of the media as being immediate impact players.

I think they have to show something ON the field first.

Once again, if Ferguson is going to help Brett Favre out so much then how come the same isn't said for Rod Gardner and Freddie Mitchell, who were taken higher in the draft?

If the Redskins are going to suffer from a lot of transition on the roster the same can be said of the Rams. There is no guarantee the defense with these new players is going to gel on command on September 3. There is a lot of wishful thinking going on here. Lewis, Pickett and Archuleta are rookies and all 3 are being counted on in some circles to each have an impact like Brian Urlacher did last season with the Bears. That is unlikely.

Herring and Williams make the secondary better, but if the front seven can't stop the run (DL is still on the smallish side) and don't generate a pass rush without Kevin Carter, then how effective will the defense be overall?

New Orleans and Philly are similar in that they have players that overachieve, especially on defense. Both units have bought into their coaches' emphasis on playing together as a team and that makes a huge difference when playing teams that are rife with internal divisions and selfish players such as the Redskins and Vikings were last season.

But is that enough to sustain these teams if they get hit with injuries or playing a tougher schedule need playmakers to step up and produce?

I am still not sold on Joe Horn as a regular #1 receiver in the NFL. He had one breakout season but it will be interesting if he is able to maintain his production now that teams will key on him in their defensive plans. Connell was a questionable signing, a player with definite attitude problems and a poor work ethic.

Is Blake or Brooks a Super Bowl quarterback? Who knows. Blake got hurt by midseason and Brooks came out of nowhere to surprise everyone. Once again, if Brooks remains the starter will he produce over 16 games? Or will he have the typical sophomore slump?

Everything in Philly revolved around McNabb. Staley is coming back from a serious injury and there are no other capable backs on the team. There is no backup quarterback. The two projected starting receivers, Mitchell and Thrash, have 10 NFL starts between them. Is that enough to say McNabb now has go to weapons in the passing game on the outside?

I can't see the Eagles not looking to add depth at RB and on the interior OL in the final round of cuts or among vets released in camp for cap reasons.

I am surprised the Eagles did not sign Ben Coleman before he signed with Washington.

Lastly, the Bucs are the preseason favorites. And like the Washington Capitals the season is just a dress rehearsal for their real test come playoff time. I think the Bucs will be in the playoffs, but whether they can win a playoff game on the road or in cold weather is still questionable until they prove they can do it.

The AFC looks to have 3 teams better than anything in the NFC: Baltimore, Tennessee and Oakland. An argument can be made that the Broncos MAY be better as well if Shanahan keeps the veterans healthy and producing over 16 games.

Look to the AFC Championship Game for the eventual Super Bowl champion again in 2001.

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