PC from CPND on the 06 "Cap hell"

[StevieInferior]

There’s a lot of talk going around in the media and by rival fans of the Skins impending cap predicament in 2006.

I thought I would do some investigation into the 2006 year from a contract perspective in an attempt to break this down issue into a detailed and factual form to see exactly what our situation is currently capwise in 2006. Obviously we will be signing more players and have draft picks between now and then so this analysis would need to be regularly reviewed.

Currently we have 28 players who’s contracts extend into the year 2006 or beyond and their current combined cap total for that year is $98.730m (not including any escalators that may kick in along the way). Heres’ the list of those players :

Portis

Arrington

Brunell

Griffin

Coles

Thomas

Washington

Springs

Jansen

Trotter

Daniels

Jacobs

Morton

Hall

Tupa

Upshaw

Wynn

Rasby

Bowen

Betts

Ramsey

Samuels

Raymer

Friedman

Dockery

Fiore

Haley

Noble

Firstly lets look at some considerations to this list.

1. Chris Samuels will count $11.320m in 2006 but this year on his contract is voidable. He will void it and after taking into account the dead cap hit for prorated signing/restructure bonuses (and the cap credit due), the voiding would save the Skins $9.102m in 2006.

2. Chad Morton’s contract has a void clause in it as well and he may very well not be here in 2006 either.

3. There are a number of players who we would consider borderline players in this group – Wynn, Upshaw, Bowen, Fiore, Haley, Noble – most of which will probably not be here in 2006. Lets assume they all get released in 2006 prior to June 1.

4. Jeremiah Trotter - there has been some speculation he may not survive until training camp, but at a cap hit of just over $6m for a MLB, he wouldn’t survive to 2006 lets assume he gets cut in 2006 prior to June 1.

5. Of the players on the 2006 list not mentioned in points 1 – 4 above, many have combined roster/option bonuses in 2006 worth $17.0m. These bonuses could easily be renegotiated to become a restructure bonus, enabling the cap hit to be spread over the remaining life of the contract. If we did this on each of these contracts (maintaining the current term of those contracts) we would save a whopping $13.625m against the cap in 2006.

If all these moves took place it would leave us with 19 players counting $61.0m against a 2006 cap that will be in the vicinity of $90.0m. Looking better. We’ve shaved nearly $38.0m off the 2006 cap without releasing anyone of note (noting that Samuels is an UFA by voiding his contract).

Remember that this analysis does not include the fact that a number of the remaining 19 players could have their 2006 cap hits reduced by reducing their 2006 base salaries as part of contract restructuring – a move that could reduce that 2006 cap figure of $61m even further.

Also the players listed for release could be released earlier than 2006, lessening the dead cap hit in 2006.

So will it be tight in 2006? Yes, tight but manageable.

Will we be in cap hell in 2006? Hardly.

PCinOz

http://mb9.theinsiders.com/fcpndhardcorefrm1.showMessage?topicID=31426.topic

[NavyDave]

Nice reporting

Too bad the mediots from ESPN, etc dont use Madden's franchise mode to take these things into account.

[TC4]

When I see that, and I compare it to the 2004 Tennessee Titans, who this year have their top 11 player taking up somethime like $70 million of their 2004 cap, I tend to laugh at all these dire "doom and gloom" predictions about the 2006 Redskins

[StevieInferior]

Well the Titans did lose some key players in McCareins, Kearse, & Smith. Don't think we have many FA that year of note with the exception of gardner. So we could be hampered in resigning a player or so.

However, do you care? Cause if these players earn their money, we won't need to replace them hence making their cap hits justifible. if they are busts, well they get cut and we start over. To me cap hell is having to release some like a Ramsey, arrington, or Portis becuase you don't have the room...not middle teir players.

[Art]

No one seriously should think a "cap hell" is coming in 2006 unless we decide we want one. If we go 6-10 then 7-9 the next two years, you might blow everything up. You might let Arrington go and Portis and everyone else. You might take a $40 million in dead money, run with a skeleton crew of Charger-like roster composition and then pick it up again in 2007.

If we're winning, we've got years before we have to make any serious decisions. That's what cash does for you and has done for us. Hell, we've avoided any serious cap consequences WHILE losing. We'll be even more justified in what we do if we ever land on a winner.