I have the proof that makes Lenny look like a liar.....

[Sanders 83]

So everyone thinks we will be in cap hell in 2006 right? Well I am sure most of you are sick of hearing this, and so am I. So I wanted to figure out on my own where we stand. It certainly isn't nearly as bad as everyone has made it out to be. Anyways, here are the contracts of the only 26 players that have contracts through or past 2006. This does not include incentives, and of course these numbers might not be exact. I did use Buddah's contract page for this, and Springs was the only contract he didn't have all the way through.

The first number is the signing bonus cap hit, not the actual bonus, and the second number is the base salary for 2006.

1. Chris Samuels - 1.43/ 7.70

2. Jeremiah Trotter- 1.13/ 5

3. Jon Jansen - 1.3/ 4

4. Renaldo Wynn - .58/ 4

5. Mark Brunell - 1.43/ 4

6. Randy Thomas - 1/ 3.5

7. Laveranves Coles - 1.8/ 3

8. Matt Bowen - .4/ 2

9. Chad Morton - .5/ 1.8

10. Dave Fiore - .375/ 1.7

11. Brandon Noble - .45/ 1.7

12. Phillip Daniels - .6/ 1.5

13. John Hall - .32/ 1.5

14. Marcus Washington - 1.16/ 1.5

15. Reagan Upshaw - .4/ 1.3

16. Jermaine Haley - .162/ 1.2

17. Patrick Ramsey - .62/ 1.188

18. Cornelius Griffen - 1.18/ 1

19. Lennie Friedman - undisclosed/ 1

20. Tom Tupa - .168/ .775

21. Clinton Portis - 2.11/ .545

22. Ledell Betts - .265/ .545

23. Lavar Arrington - 2.5/ .545

24. Taylor Jacobs - .36/ .460

25. Derrick Dockery - .121/ .460

26. Shawn Springs - 1.6/ undisclosed

So the total of the signing bonus' to hit in 2006 is 22.399 million. The total base salaries of these players is 51.918. Those numbers don't include the two players who bonus and base salaries have not been made public at this point. That is a total of 74. 317.

If that were this year, we would only be 6 million under. It has been pointed out that there is a TV contract to be redone in 2006, which could make the salary cap really jump. Even if it doesn't, it is fair to say the cap will be set somewhere around 90 million. That puts us at 16 million under, with virtually all of our starters signed.

Doesn't sound like much room with only 26 players signed, but there will probably be at least 10 of these guys who aren't with us anymore. At first glance, it is fair to say, Fiore, Noble, Wynn, Upshaw, Haley, and probably Bowen, will not be with us by the time 2006 rolls around. That is only 6 players, but their total base salaries adds up to 11.9 million. Take that off of the 74 million, and we already are down to 62 million. Possibly close to 30 million under, with 21 players signed.

The only other two numbers that really jump out at me are Chris Samuels and Jeremiah Trotter. Samuels is 7.7, and Trotter is 5. There is another 12 million.

Of course I have no knowledge of dead cap space over these two years. It is possible some of these guys could get hurt, and we get hit hard from having to cut them. Brunell could also be gone by this point. Smoot should have a new contract. Rod Gardner could. Ramsey could. Even with all that, I think it is plainly obvious that these writers have NOT done their homework. I have. Here is the proof cap hell will not happen in 2006, but of coure it will in 2007, LOL. :rotflmao:

I am human, so if I happen to have made any mistakes please let me know, and I will fix them accordingly. I hope this helps everyone in the battle against idiots across the nation.

[KevinMac]

I think most people who are making these predictions are looking at the roster bonuses due that year. I think, though, that the bonuses are a good thing as they will force the high salary guys into renegotiating their contracts of risk losing the guaranteed money from the roster bonus, plus the guaranteed money that a restructure bonus would bring.

So I agree with you, I don't think we are in bad shape when all things are considered.

[I.M. Fletch]

very interesting...good work!

I think everyone should use this motto...just let the front office guys work. I remember people saying from 1999 on that the Skins would be in cap hell by now and it hasn't happened. Every team handles things differently. Think what you may of Dan Snyder and co. but these guys aren't stupid with money, how else could they be worth a fortune. I have a feeling things will work out in the end.

[Sanders 83]

I did leave out one thing. The bottom of the roster. Most of these players will all have the min. and even lower for UDFA, and EFA. But at a .550 base salary with no signing bonus, we could have 30 players signed for 16.5 million. With the first number I came up with 74.317, we would be right at 90 million with 56 players signed. Cap Hell, I think not.

[Sanders 83]

Okay the roster bonuses I didn't know how to work into it. So with Portis, Coles, and Lavar, I prorated their roster bonuses in 2006, with the rest of their signing bonus. Portis has 4 million over 2006 and 2007, Coles has 2 million in 2006, and Lavar has 4.5 in 2006. That is a total of 10.5. Still that is completely something that we can work with, even if it hits 2006 in full.

[Sanders 83]

Hey Vis, what do you think about this?

[visionary]

Makes sense to me...but I'm not great with numbers anymore.

(for me math truly is a four letter word

Good work, now print it out...go find Pastabelly and whack him on the head with it. With his enormous girth it won't hurt, (he'll just absorb the blow) but it'll still be funny and a bit embarrasing for that pasta eating bozo :rotflmao:

[Sanders 83]

That is what the always trusty calculator is for.

[dahogs]

Good job. And, of course the salary cap will increase in 2006 under the new COB, why wouldn't it? It's in the players best interest to negotiate a higher cap. Maybe there will be some backlash from the smaller market teams, but then again, they're the one's that reap the benefits of owners like Snyder.

[MidPennSkin]

Not that I want to defend Lenny, but the 2006 salary cap numbers are a bit bigger than what is shown above. The principal difference is roster and deferred signing bonuses, which the Skins are now using extensively, and which aren't fully included in the above numbers.

For the 26 guys you list, I get the following cap numbers for 2006, based on data by PCinOZ, posted here and here.

LaVar Arrington-----$12.414

Chris Samuels-------$10.898

Laveranues Coles----$6.857

Jeremiah Trotter----$6.162

Mark Brunell--------$5.433

Jon Jansen----------$5.238

Cornelius Griffin---$4.883

Shawn Springs-------$4.883

Renaldo Wynn--------$4.583

Randy Thomas--------$4.5

Marcus Washington---$3.667

Philip Daniels------$2.6

Clinton Portis------$2.462

Matt Bowen----------$2.4

Chad Morton---------$2.3

Brandon Noble-------$2.15

Dave Fiore----------$2.075

Regan Upshaw--------$1.7

John Hall-----------$1.42

Jermaine Haley------$1.413

Patrick Ramsey------$1.308

Lenny Freidmann-----$1.05

Tommy Tupa----------$0.939

Taylor Jacobs-------$0.841

Ladell Betts--------$0.81

Derrick Dockery-----$0.576

Total---------------$93.562

Then there will be about $10 mil for the other 27 players and around $10-$15 mil in dead cap space. Looks to me like we will have some scrambling to do to get under the cap in 2006.

But if Tennessee did it this year starting at $18 mil over in February, we can probably do it in 2006. We will have to cut and restructure quite a bit, though.

[RabidFan]

All the scrambling is possible but at least all these numbers show it won't be a purge of the roster like Balt had to do after they won the Super Bowl.

[ummagumma]

There will be some cuts next season that will put dead money on 2005 cap that will help 2006. In addition (or subtraction) the Redskins will cut certain players and that will effect the cap. I tried to run the numbers if we cut various players at various points (Wynn, Trotter, Haley, etc..) and knocked $20,000,000 off. Of course, that doesn't include Springs or any draft picks or any players signed in the future, like Smoot.

Will we be in cap hell? Depends on how you define it. Will we have tough decisions? Absolutely. If you define cap hell as cutting players to save money on the cap, we will be in cap hell. If you define cap hell as cutting players YOU WANT TO KEEP, we might not be. I'll call it CAP PURGATORY.

[Sanders 83]

Mid Penn, most of those numbers are the same that I have. I was unsure of a couple, but even so, those are still not unworkable cap numbers. With the cuts that I mentioned we could make, we could easily get back under, if needed.

Also I was wondering where you got the 10-15M in dead cap money for that year.

[MidPennSkin]

Originally posted by Sanders 83

Mid Penn, most of those numbers are the same that I have. I was unsure of a couple, but even so, those are still not unworkable cap numbers. With the cuts that I mentioned we could make, we could easily get back under, if needed.

Also I was wondering where you got the 10-15M in dead cap money for that year.

I sort of grabbed it out of the air based on my recollection of our dead cap numbers for the past few years ($12.7 mil in 2002, $5+ mil in 2003, $7.4 mil in 2004). Actually, if we don't cut any of the players on the list, there won't be any dead cap space in 2006, so adding it in is probably overkill. In actuality, we will be doing some cutting in 2005, and the dead cap numbers will be there in 2006, but the $93 mil for players won't be all there.

[wskin44]

Tennessee, Tampa, San Fran, St. Louis, Indy & Denver have all lost players this year due to the cap that they probably would've liked to keep. Is that cap hell? Where are all the condeming doom and gloom reports from the press regarding these teams?

The Skins will have to make some tough choices in 2006. Some players who we like will go, some new ones will be signed, some will accomodate the team and take home a pile a cash for their trouble. Good coaching and committed players win games. As long as Joe is coaching, Cap Hell is overated.