MidPennSkin Posted December 10, 2003 Share Posted December 10, 2003 Here’s a look at the current 2003 strength of schedule for all NFL teams, as of today, Dec 9. Rank/ Team/ Opponent’s Win Pct 1 Buffalo 0.582 2 Houston 0.563 3 NYGiants 0.563 4 NYJets 0.543 5 Atlanta 0.543 6 Cleveland 0.543 7 Jacksonville 0.539 8 Arizona 0.538 9 Miami 0.529 10 Washington 0.529 11 Detroit 0.519 12 Oakland 0.510 13 SanFrancisco 0.510 14 NewEngland 0.505 15 Pittsburgh 0.500 16 SanDiego 0.500 17 Denver 0.495 18 TampaBay 0.490 19 NewOrleans 0.490 20 GreenBay 0.490 21 Indianapolis 0.486 22 Chicago 0.486 23 Philadelphia 0.481 24 Tennessee 0.476 25 Dallas 0.471 26 Cincinnati 0.466 27 Seattle 0.466 28 Baltimore 0.462 29 Carolina 0.443 30 Minnesota 0.438 31 StLouis 0.428 32 KansasCity 0.418 We have slipped from the 5th most difficult schedule last week to 10th this week. This happened because the teams on our schedule this year had a poor week, on average. The Iggles dropped 2 places, from 21st most difficult schedule to 23rd this week. However, the difference between the Iggle’s schedule and the Redskins’ schedule is totally due to the fact that we play the Iggles twice, with their win percentage of 0.769, while they play us twice, with our win percentage of 0.385. If you look only at the other 14 games that the Iggles and Redskins play, the win percentage of those teams is identical, 0.495 for both us and the Iggles. So we have mainly ourselves to blame for the fact that the Iggles have an easier schedule than we do. The cowboys, on the other hand, have played an easier schedule due to playing Arizona and Detroit, whereas we play Seattle and Chicago, and Philly plays Green Bay and San Francisco. Otherwise, all teams in the division play the same 12 teams. So if a team wins a lot of games, their schedule tends to be easier than the other teams in their division. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba9497 Posted December 10, 2003 Share Posted December 10, 2003 New England is getting it done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark28 Posted December 10, 2003 Share Posted December 10, 2003 It's funny how most of the teams that are in serious playoff contention or winning their divisions have the easier schedules...I guess we'll know if we make the playoffs next year by figuring out our 2004 strength of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inmate running the asylum Posted December 10, 2003 Share Posted December 10, 2003 MidPennSkin, Who figured out this current strength of schedule? Yourself or did you get it from a link. If you got it from a link, would you give us the link source? If you did it yourself, keep us posted here on this thread for the last three weeks of the season. The reason being, that it has draft order ramifications for the teams, and we or at least I, would like to keep up with this as the last games unfold. Right now the Skins are tied at 5-8 with Pittsburgh, Chicago, Houston and the NY Jets for draft order. But if I'm reading your strength of schedule right, it appears that we would draft ahead of Pittsburgh and Chicago, because OUR schedule has been tougher then those two teams. But we would draft behind Houston and the NY Jets. That means at the moment we would draft 11th instead of 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidPennSkin Posted December 10, 2003 Author Share Posted December 10, 2003 Originally posted by inmate running the asylum MidPennSkin, Who figured out this current strength of schedule? Yourself or did you get it from a link. If you got it from a link, would you give us the link source? If you did it yourself, keep us posted here on this thread for the last three weeks of the season. I did it myself, using the W/L data from nfl.com. I'll try to keep it updated for the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbooma Posted December 10, 2003 Share Posted December 10, 2003 Originally posted by Mark28 It's funny how most of the teams that are in serious playoff contention or winning their divisions have the easier schedules...I guess we'll know if we make the playoffs next year by figuring out our 2004 strength of schedule. This entire thing is so misleading. The teams that are in contention win the games they are supposed too. Look at Indy, they are 2-0 against the Titans, do you consider the Titans a bad team? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TD_washingtonredskins Posted December 10, 2003 Share Posted December 10, 2003 But if I'm reading your strength of schedule right, it appears that we would draft ahead of Pittsburgh and Chicago, because OUR schedule has been tougher then those two teams. Not sure how this would work but I THINK that the fact that we had the same record as a team with an easier schedule would allow them to draft before us. The draft is set up so that the weakest team drafts first and the best team last. So if we end the season 8-8 along with Pittsburgh and our schedule is tougher, then technically we're a stronger team. I would think that they would draft first. Not sure that's how it works but I would assume it would have the opposite effect of standings tie-breakers. Can anyone confirm this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troy Fakeman Posted December 10, 2003 Share Posted December 10, 2003 Dallas...jesus...must be nice to play Arizona and Detroit back to back.....pummeling those teams just adds momentum. It is probally the reason for their hot streak a while back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ignatius J. Posted December 10, 2003 Share Posted December 10, 2003 SOS should be calculated by subtracting out the games the team played. If you don't do this, then beter teams will always appear to have a weaker SOS since teams that play them lose to them. I never understood why the formula isn't: number of opponents wins - number of teams losses divided by number of opponents games - number of games played by the team Why isn't this what they do? -DB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidPennSkin Posted December 10, 2003 Author Share Posted December 10, 2003 Originally posted by DrunkenBoxer SOS should be calculated by subtracting out the games the team played. If you don't do this, then beter teams will always appear to have a weaker SOS since teams that play them lose to them. I never understood why the formula isn't: number of opponents wins - number of teams losses divided by number of opponents games - number of games played by the team Why isn't this what they do? -DB DB, your formula may be better for comparing strength of schedule for teams with different W/L records, but when used as a tie-breaker for teams with identical records, it doesn't make any difference because the number of losses is the same. The schedule strengths given in my original post were calculated using what I think is the standard method, which is just the sum of the opponents wins divided by the sum of opponents games played. For example, for the Redskins, we play the following teams in 2003, with the following records thru 13 games. Date/ Opponent /OppWins/ OppLosses 09/04/03 NYJets 5 8 09/14/03 Atlanta 3 10 09/21/03 NYGiants 4 9 09/28/03 NewEngland 11 2 10/05/03 Philadelphia 10 3 10/12/03 TampaBay 6 7 10/19/03 Buffalo 6 7 11/02/03 Dallas 8 5 11/09/03 Seattle 8 5 11/16/03 Carolina 8 5 11/23/03 Miami 8 5 11/30/03 NewOrleans 6 7 12/07/03 NYGiants 4 9 12/14/03 Dallas 8 5 12/21/03 Chicago 5 8 12/27/03 Philadelphia 10 3 The total number of opponent wins is 110 and losses is 98, thru 13 games. Therefore, our strength of schedule is 110/(110+98) = 0.529 From this source, the draft order tie breakers are as follows: "The picks: The draft order in the first round is determined as follows: 1) the super Bowl champion has the last regular pick in each round, while the Super Bowl loser has the second last regular pick in each round; 2) the remaining teams are grouped according to won-lost record; if there are both playoff and non-playoff teams within a won-lost grouping, the playoff teams are grouped after the non-playoff teams; 3) non-playoff teams in each group draft in reverse order of their 2001 strength of schedule; playoff teams are also grouped according to strength of schedule, though they are further aggregated by the team(s) advancing the farthest in the playoffs. Where two teams with the same records and their combined opponents have the same winning percentage, divisional or conference tie-breakers, whichever are applicable, are applied. Any ties that still exist are broken by a coin flip. In subsequent rounds, the team with the highest pick in the previous round in each won-lost grouping drops to the bottom of that group, while all other teams move up one place." Substitute 2003 for the 2001 in the above quote and our draft order would be as inmate stated above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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