Art Posted January 23, 2002 Share Posted January 23, 2002 Here's something dating back to 1999 when Cerrato was brought in. Not sure the author, but, I'm scrolling through an old recovered hard drive and am finding old articles I used to have <img border="0" title="" alt="[smile]" src="smile.gif" /> . This one is long and is in depth on Cerrato probably, from the feel, by a fan site of some sort.<br /><br />The job of an NFL personnel executive is amazingly difficult. There is no guarantee of success, and no system is perfect--either in coaching or scouting. ESPN's Mel Kiper talks about a 'roll of the dice' when discussing college prospects, and that exemplifies how much of the process is pure luck.<br /><br />Even the most talented players can fail. Redskins fans know this first hand. And there is no way to predict how money and outside influences will effect a player once he is out of the safe confines of the college campus. Witness the 1999 head cases--Demetrus Underwood (the Vikings draft pick who found religion) and John Tate (the Chiefs pick who disagrees with managements attitude).<br /><br />Still, some personnel men in concert with their subordinates on the sideline seem to have a worthwhile recipe. They find diamonds where others see only coal. They avoid colossal blunders, taking a beating in the press, only to be proven right five years later. And in time they build a program worthy of admiration.<br /><br />There is no one great measuring stick to measure individual athletes. Rather, its prudent to view the entire picture and see what an individual group has achieved. Under some circumstances, just producing a winning record is a monumental task. Other times a seemingly talented team underachieves.<br /><br />The question for Redskins fans: how Vinny Cerrato stacks up against his circumstances? Does his background make him a good candidate (the candidate) to retool the franchise? Is he the man to spend the Redskins three first round selections in the 2000 NFL Draft?<br /><br />Here, we will take a long hard look at Cerrato's background and record, both as a college recruiter and 49ers staffer.<br /><br />Vinny:<br />A Minnesota native, Cerrato played Quarterback at Iowa State from 1978 to 1982. After a good career and realizing that he was not headed to the NFL, he worked at the University of Minnesota as a graduate assistant, catching the eye of Golden Gofer Head Coach Lou Holtz. Holtz would eventually move to Notre Dame, taking Cerrato with him, elevating the 26 year old to Director of College Scouting.<br /><br />From '86 to '91, Cerrato was a part of an elite college program, with the Irish winning the National Championship in 1988. But how much of this experience applies to the professional ranks?<br /><br />College Life:<br />High school athletes who have the size, speed and ability to play in college are identified and tracked by a variety of sources. It can be hard to compare apples to apples. In addition, the volume of prep schools makes an NFL style scouting department impossible for a national powerhouse like Notre Dame.<br /><br />From the point where a potential recruit is identified--during a players Junior, or even Sophomore season (in prep school), the relationship becomes about personal contact.<br /><br />Backs are recruited by the Running back Coach, Linebackers by the Linebackers Coach--etc. A recruiting coordinator tracks what the assistants are doing, and helps target the marketing. Sure, they can evaluate talent. But in most cases their job is to sell the school, and make sure the coaches deliver an effective message. Their roll tends to be mostly that of a salesman. They shape the class, and help weight prospects.<br /><br />In the NFL, each player is hand picked, and often they have little or no choice in their destination. Sure, Free Agency has given some players a choice--and Cerrato's experience selling a program could come in handy when pitching the Redskins. But the hard work of identifying the right athletes in the Draft and on the open market are the things that make a champion.<br /><br />And the bottom line for Free Agents is always money.<br /><br />Still, Cerrato got to observe a top flight, championship organization in South Bend. Serving under a leader like Holtz can be very powerful. Plus, the program was ultimately very successful during his tenure, and Cerrato deserves some of the credit for his work with the Irish.<br /><br />But how much applies to the running of an NFL Draft is highly debatable.<br /><br />In 1991 Cerrato moved to the 49ers organization on the recommendation of Lou Holtz. There, he directed the scouting department before being promoted to Director of Player Personnel in 1994.<br /><br />The 49ers:<br />During the roaring 80's, the 49ers were one of the dominant NFL franchises. A combination of Bill Walsh the field general and Bill Walsh the personnel man forged a system that would eventually produce 5 championships. Superstars were drafted then utilized to their maximum effectiveness. A system was instituted to evaluate players based on a set criteria. In short, the 'west coast' brand was established.<br /><br />The team would benefit from great personnel selection early in the decade. Charles Haley, Joe Montana, Jerry Rice, Steve Young, Roger Craig, Harris Barton, Dwight Clark and Ronnie Lott formed a nucleus that the team was built upon. As time wore on, and players wore out, the 49ers truly reloaded instead of rebuilding--a feat not accomplished by any other NFL franchise. Dynasties have been forged and then fallen throughout the history of the NFL. But San Francisco surged to the top, and has bobbed, but never sank during the past 20 years.<br /><br />This was possible for two reasons--Montana and Young. Few teams have had a Quarterback as great as Joe Montana followed up with another Hall of Fame athlete like Steve Young. No matter the state of the teams other 21 starters, the 49ers have known they would get consistent play from the most important cog in the west coast offense. Moreover, both men were type-A personalities who commanded respect from their teammates.<br /><br />The process of surrounding Montana and Young with talent was not easy for the 49ers. But having the Quarterback position solidified made a lot of other areas come into focus.<br /><br />Vinny Cerrato stepped into a situation that was predetermined, and by 1991 very successful. Moreover, the teams personnel selections were a group effort. Carmen Policy, Dwight Clark, and the coaching staff all had input.<br /><br />However the teams overall draft record has been spotty during the late 90's. Moreover, a case can be made that the 49ers were overextending themselves against the NFL Salary Cap, compensating for sub-par acquisitions on Draft day. And it was during this period that Vinny Cerrato had the most influence over the decision making process.<br /><br />Defining Cerrato's culpability for the 49ers personnel troubles is difficult. But there is no way he can escape blame for poor drafts and free agent misfires while taking credit for the successes. Complicating matters in San Francisco was an ownership soap opera which saw George Seifert depart. Ultimately Carmen Policy and Dwight Clark moved to Cleveland.<br /><br />This left Cerrato without a benefactor in the Bay area, and as they say a new broom sweeps clean. and Cerrato was fired after the 1998 season.<br /><br />The Record:<br />Flashing back to 1995, the team was fresh off a Superbowl victory, and Cerrato was promoted Director of Player Personnel. This placed him just under General Manager Dwight Clark, and President Carmen Policy.<br /><br />From 1995 through 1998 the 49ers were below par in Cerrato's four NFL Drafts. The team was coming off a Superbowl high after the 1994 season, and needed to add youth to several areas, notably on the Offensive Line and secondary.<br /><br />Prior to 1995, the veterans of the 80's had been successfully replaced, and the team had done a great job attracting Free Agents like Deion Sanders. Moreover, their draft record was very credible, even though they floundered against the 1990's NFC dominators: Dallas and Green Bay. But the 49ers consistently made the playoffs, and were always a competitive team.<br /><br />But since 1994, the team has slipped down a notch: still a winner but not championship caliber team. For a franchise that had been used to taking home Lombardi Trophies, this indeed was a step down.<br /><br /> <br /><br />The Vinny Cerrato Drafts:<br /><br />1995 NFL Draft<br />1. JJ Stokes: The 49ers gave up 2 first round picks for him, trading up with the Browns. Stokes has just shaken the "bust" label, but has been very average. The team showed a lot of confidence by resigning him to another large contract.<br />2. Tim Hanshaw: Has been a career backup. Never started an NFL game.<br />3. Antonio Armstrong: Cut before the 1996 season.<br />4. Herbert Coleman: Cut before the 1996 season.<br /><br />1995 Draft Summary:<br />Not much there. JJ Stokes has yet to live up to being drafted 9th overall. But Stokes was resigned for a respectable amount--the 49ers seem willing to wait in much the same fashion the Redskins have been patient with Michael Westbrook. Hanshaw has been cut many times and has yet to start a NFL game. Not exactly a great outcome, even for a team drafting at the bottom of every round.<br /><br />Free Agents 1995<br />Derrick Moore: Running Back<br />Kirk Scrafford: Offensive Line<br />Marquez Pope: Defensive Back<br />Clifford Hicks: Safety<br />Dedrick Dodge: Safety<br /><br />1995 Free Agent Summary:<br />Scrafford played well at Left Tackle for a couple seasons, and Pope was good when healthy. Neither was a dominating force, but both were solid band-aids on weak areas of the team. The 49ers were not able to replace the departed Deion Sanders (Dallas).<br /><br />1996 NFL Draft<br />1. The 49ers first pick was traded to the Ravens to complete the deal for Stokes.(The Ravens selected Ray Lewis, who is widely considered the NFL's best Middle Linebacker.)<br />2. Israel Ifeanyi: Has yet to make any impact. Not in an NFL Camp in 1999.<br />3. Terrell Owens: Outstanding player, and amazing value in the 3rd round. Kudos all around.<br />3. Daryl Price: Did not do much. Was cut in 1998. Never started a NFL game.<br />4. Iheanyi Uwazeuoke: Played well during some brief periods, but also had Steve Young throwing him the ball. Waived in early 1998. Cut by the Panthers in 1999.<br />5. Stephen Pitts: Did not make the team.<br />6. Sean Manual: Played on special teams, cut in 1997<br />7. Sam Manual: Sean's twin, similar fate.<br /><br />1996 Draft summary:<br />Terrell Owens was a smash pick, and the rest fizzled very fast. Stokes has slowly gotten better, and will start again this season. But he has not been worth two first round selections. The team lost out on Ray Lewis who went to the Ravens, or the chance to add another impact player.<br /><br />The Owens pick has made up for JJ Stokes in some respects. With the pair, along with ageless Jerry Rice, the 49ers are well stocked at Wide Receiver. And Uwazeuoke was a capable replacement during periods of injury. The rest were well below average, and not quality NFL players.<br /><br />1996 Free Agents<br />Johnny Johnson, Running Back<br />Ray Brown, Offensive Guard<br />Eugene Chung, Offensive Line<br />Chris Doleman, Defensive End<br />Roy Barker, Defensive End<br />Tommy Vardell, Fullback<br /><br />1996 Free Agent Summary:<br />The 49ers reloaded through Free Agency. Both lines were bolstered, with the Redskins Ray Brown lured west. Brown has become a fixture for the team, barley missing any time since. Doleman was up and down, but way up when it counted--he said he he would play in 1999 for $4 million a season.<br /><br />Clark and Cerrato basically rebuilt both lines through free agency. Brown is still there, while Doleman and Barker were excellent additions. Tommy Vardell has had trouble staying healthy, but is a quality player. Kudos.<br /><br />1997 NFL Draft<br />1. Jim Druckenmiller: Started one game, and has been in the dog house since. Not a good fit in the 'West Coast' system, but has battled back in 1999. Druck may yet prove to be a starter in the league, but not in San Francisco. He was dealt to the Dolphins for a 6th round Draft pick.<br />2. Marc Edwards: Got some time in 1998, and moved over to the Browns, as many of the 49ers did--along with Dwight Clark and Carmen Policy. Has limited ability, but is an NFL player which is more than you can say for many Clark/Cerrato selections.<br />3. Greg Clark: He will start for the 49ers in 1999. Is a better blocker than receiver. He was recruited to Stanford by Bill Walsh.<br /><br />1997 Draft summary:<br />Druckenmiller is a player, but will not be in San Francisco when he blossoms. It begs the question--why was he drafted? Plus, he has gotten into trouble twice off the field, most recently tried for rape in Virginia. Edwards is average, and nothing special. The jury is still out on Clark. The 49ers gave up the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th rounders to move up to pick Druckenmiller and Edward's.<br /><br />Not a draft to build around, and just two years later is already considered a failure. Compare it to the Redskins 1997 Draft--just the late rounds. The Skins got Albert Connell in the 4th, and Jamel Williams and Brad Badger in the 5th during this same draft. All are helping the Redskins in 1999. The 49ers have been playing fast and loose with their late round picks, and are short on roll players as a result.<br /><br />The trade of seemingly insignifigant 4th to 7th round picks was a major waste. Thumbs down on this draft.<br /><br />Free Agents 1997<br />Terry Kirby, Running back<br />Garrison Hearst, Running back<br />Kevin Gogan, Offensive Guard<br /><br />1997 Free Agent Summary:<br />Hearst was a very good move. He had two pretty good seasons for the 49ers, and might still recover from a serious leg injury to contribute for several more seasons. Gogan made the Pro Bowl both years. Good job in free agency. They filled the voids and won the division crown back from Carolina.<br /><br />Again, the 49ers made up for their lack of production in the Draft with solid work in the Free Agent area. Hearst was a bargain to start, but Gogan got a big contract.<br /><br />1998 draft<br />1. RW McQuarters: Played, OK as a rookie. He is a bit small, and does not have exceptional speed but the 49ers expect him to start this season. But it should be noted that the secondary is the teams weak link. McQuarters was beat out to start the 1999 season.<br />2. Jeremy Newberry: Had a terrible knee injury in training camp. He is not listed as the starter in 1999. It is not fair to blame the staff for an injured player.<br />3. Chris Ruhman: He could start at Right Tackle. in 1999. Has yet to play in a game.<br />4. Lance Shulters: Strictly a special teams player. He lacks speed.<br />5. Phil Ostroski: Has good technique. Did not play as a rookie, but is slated to start in 1999. Nice pick.<br />6. Fred Beasley: Special teamer. He could compete for playing time with the injury to Hearst, and if Lawrence Philips starts beating women again.<br />7. Ryan Thelwell: Is not currently on the roster.<br /><br />1998 Draft Summary:<br />McQuarters is the only one who saw significant action in 1998. This year most of the picks are slated as starters. Not a bad draft, but after a full season there are still is only one legitimate NFL player, and a lot of question marks. The jury is still out, but early indications are positive. Some of these players should contribute, and that is no small thing.<br /><br />1998 free agents<br />Ty Detmer, Quarterback<br />Jamie Brown, Offensive Tackle<br />Gabe Wilkins, Defensive End<br />Winifred Tubbs, Linebacker<br />Antonio Langham, Cornerback<br />Irv Smith, Tight End<br />Shane Bonham, Defensive Tackle<br /><br />1998 Free Agent Summary:<br />This group was awful and its no wonder the Falcons blew past the 9ers. Brown was a head case, and is still a long shot in Washington. Wilkins missed the entire season with a prior knee injury that was not explored. Tubbs was a major disappointment, and Langham was the most overpaid player in the league last season. Smith and Langham were sold to the Browns, and Bonham is strictly a backup. Plus, the team lost NFL Defensive Player of the Year Dana Stubblefield, making no attempt to resign him.<br /><br />Conclusion:<br />As a member of four NFL Drafts (in management) Cerrato's record is sub-par. The 49ers produced one solid player in 4 years--Terrell Owens.<br /><br />The verdict has yet to come down on Stokes, and McQuarters still could catch fire. But neither has become a big time, top flight playmaker. And both are aided by Steve Young; Stokes catches his passes and McQuarters has the luxury of often playing with a lead.<br /><br />The 49ers did much better in Free Agency, landing Hearst, Dolman, Ray Brown, Kevin Gogan and others. They have done as good a job there as anyone, but it should be noted that the team got greedy in 1998, and made huge blunders. Going forward, the teams future is suspect.<br /><br />The team rebuild both lines in Free Agency, but the question should be asked--why did they fail to draft a bonafied NFL lineman during 4 years? While whiffing on player after player, the 49ers made few attempts at even drafting a back-up for their aging core of lineman. Coming into 1999, the team has huge question marks at both Tackle slots. This is a finger best pointed at Dwight Clark and Carmen Policy, but Cerrato is using his record with the 49ers to secure work in Washington. His record is there record. Where was he during this mess?<br /><br />The 49ers remained winners during this period, and for that they should thank Steve Young and some crafty veterans. Their will to win was larger than the dim drafts that were used to bolster their team. This places the teams future in peril, and Cerrato was at the center. Bill Walsh was called in to run the football operation in 1999, saying that the team he inherited was a "mess".<br /><br />Way over the Salary Cap, the 49ers cut player after player in a fire sale, with the Cleveland Browns providing needed cap relief in the way of Antonio Langahm's contract.<br /><br />Cerrato has stated that he will stand on his record--and the record is spotty at best. The Redskins should be nervous if Cerrato remains in charge of the teams 3 number 1 picks come April.<br /><br />Cerrato has yet to prove himself as a competent evaluator of college athletes. And that is exactly what the Redskins will need to rebuild, or reload--depending on the outcome of the 1999 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hog Fever Posted January 24, 2002 Share Posted January 24, 2002 *sigh*<br /><br />This article just confirms our biggest fears about bringing Vinny back. He simply can not evaluate talent on the NFL level.<br /><br />The one saving grace is that Steve will have his input on the QB and WR draft picks and FA pick ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjeff Posted January 24, 2002 Share Posted January 24, 2002 I don't care for Vinny at all. This is one stupid move by Snyder. All he wants is to be surrounded by "yes men". And what's with Vinny's eyes? They look like they are going to pop out of his head at any time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terry Posted January 24, 2002 Share Posted January 24, 2002 I dunno, if he gets the blame for the drafts, then he should get credit for some sweet FA moves. That team went for 3 or 4 seasons longer than it should have because of the moves they made in free agency back then.<br /><br />But you can't look at that mid '90s 49er situation and not wonder what input Clark and Policy had.<br /><br />Just as you can't look at the current Skins situation and not wonder what impact Spurrier, Mendes, and likely a fairly autonomous DC are gonna have.<br /><br />The best we can do is wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bulldog Posted January 24, 2002 Share Posted January 24, 2002 The positive case for Cerrato on his record (who knows why, I just feel like being positive today...)<br /><br />1. The thumbs down on the Lance Schulters pick was a mistake as he made the pro bowl in 2000 at safety.<br /><br />2. RW McQuarters has established himself in Chicago as a starting quality cornerback in the NFL after being dumped by the 49ers.<br /><br />3. Fred Beasley has been an above average fullback in the NFL for several years and a good pass receiver as well.<br /><br />4. Marc Edwards moved on and is a contributor currently opening holes for 1,200 yard rusher Antowain Smith in New England.<br /><br />5. Free agents Ray Brown and Garrison Hearst made multiple pro bowls as free agent acquisitions by the 49ers. How many UFA's acquired in the offseason become pro bowlers for their new teams?<br /><br />6. Terrell Owens as noted was a good pick at the time and is now probably the most complete receiver in the NFL.<br /><br />7. Greg Clark had the makings of a very good NFL tight end and his future has become clouded only because of some serious injury problems. Certainly Cerrato can't be blamed for that.<br /><br />8. Other complementary free agents such as Terry Kirby and Marquez Pope have been contributors on playoff teams in Oakland the past 2 seasons under Jon Gruden. While Kirby is now a special teams returner more than running back, Pope has started at safety at times and seen action as a third corner as well.<br /><br />Overall, there is no question the fortunes of the 49ers turned after the Super Bowl victory in 1994, but a lot of these factors were 'priced in' and came as the result of the full impact of free agency.<br /><br />The 49ers lost Deion Sanders in his prime to Dallas because of money in the free agent market. To say that Cerrato was unable to fully replace Sanders and that says something about Vinny is ridiculous. Take Kurt Warner off the Rams and tell Zygmunt to find an equal replacement in that offense and how effective do you think he would be in doing so?<br /><br />Ditto here in 1997 when the article said the 49ers lost Dana Stubblefield without even offering him a free agent contract. Well, the truth is Bryant Young and Jerry Rice were both upcoming free agents as well that year and the team had a limited amount of dollars to throw at the players they could have lost. In retrospect did the 49ers make a mistake in keeping Jerry Rice or Bryant Young instead? How many pro bowls has Stubblefield been to since 1997?<br /><br />As to the JJ Stokes selection, what input did Clark and Policy have in the trade to move up and grab Stokes?<br /><br />I remember at the time some people in the NFL were saying the 6'3 Stokes out of UCLA would be the next dominant receiver in the NFL. <br /><br />It's not too far-fetched to believe that Policy and Clark thought that Stokes would be the eventual replacement for Jerry Rice on the 49ers.<br />Certainly the trade of picks and the large contract offered to Stokes were evidence of a concurrence of the pick at the highest levels of the organization.<br /><br />And finally, I might add that the record of Policy and Clark is something to investigate as well. How have they done since going to Cleveland?<br /><br />It seems when they first arrived, they made the same mistakes that plagued the 49ers organization in the late 1990's, and we must remember that Vinny was not invited along to that party. <img border="0" title="" alt="[smile]" src="smile.gif" /> <br /><br />Instead of going with younger players, the Browns acquire aging big names such as Barker, Mills, Miller, Fuller on defense and spent money on the other side of the ball to acquire Lomas Brown, Roman Oben and Dave Wohlabaugh. <br /><br />Brown was a bust in Cleveland before resurrecting his career in 2000 in NY. Oben was way overpaid at LT. Wohlabaugh was another player that was given a big contract despite being a simply solid performer.<br /><br />Now, the Browns did select Couch, Brown, etc.. in the draft. But the same argument about having gimmee picks that is made against Vinny here in Washington in 2000 with LaVar and Chris can be made in the Cleveland case as well.<br /><br />And what of the decision to hire Chris Palmer as the HC? He was out the door pretty quickly, despite the fact he had little available talent to work with in the beginning.<br /><br />So, the team after floundering the first year and a half had to blow up the roster and start over with younger players and release some of the veterans that had been acquired.<br /><br />A case can be made that the decision to go with younger players should have been the team's opening strategy given the previous example of the Carolina Panthers, who declined precipitously after a fast start because of the advancing age and large signing bonuses given to free agents and established veterans.<br /><br />I am not a Vinny fan per se. But I think Policy and Clark manipulated the cap illegally in SF and put the organization on the path to oblivion and they escaped to Cleveland with a slap on the wrist at most, when they should have been suspended by the NFL for a considerable time.<br /><br />Did Cerrato have a role in that? Who knows, I sure don't. <br /><br />But I don't see where people around the NFL give Policy and Clark a large chunk of respect and credit for their work in the NFL and then lay scorn on Cerrato for being with the same team and contributing to the same successes and failures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terry Posted January 24, 2002 Share Posted January 24, 2002 Just to add to Bulldog's post, Jeremy Newberry did recover from that knee and is now their starting Center.<br /><br />To summarize Bulldog's post:<br /><br />Owens, Stokes, Shulters, Beasley, Newberry, and Clark are still playing for them.<br /><br />McQuarters is a starting CB for Chicago and Marc Edwards is the Pats starting FB.<br /><br />They drafted 21 players during Cerrato's tenure. As near as I can find, 8 of them are still playing in the NFL, 6 for the 49ers.<br /><br />EDIT: Cerrato drafted 21 players, 6 still with the team, 29% retention rate.<br /><br />From '95 to '98, the same period Cerrato was drafting for the 49ers, the Skins drafted 30 players, 8 are with the team, a 26% retention rate.<br /><br />However, far more Skins players went elsewhere and are still in the NFL.<br /> <br /> [ January 24, 2002: Message edited by: Terry ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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