Rex Grossman, 2006, Chicago Bears: What Really Happened

[Son of Gadsden]

Sexy Rexy...

* is a gunslinger, much in the style of Favre. +1 (No Risk = No Reward..."**** It!") <--- we need this

This mother f***** just wont die, will he!?

By the way....TLDR.

I lose more girlfriends that way.

Now that those smart ass remarks are out of the way, I'll state an opinion.

To me, the decision is apples and oranges...and cliche at that.

Rex is the risky option. He "goes deep", and probably 99% of the time would have more yards than Beck and more touchdowns too. However, he's going to throw interceptions. How many? That's the gamble. You might win, you might lose. The Bears lost, so they took their chips and went to another table.

Beck on the other hand is the steady option from what i have seen. He's not going to throw as many interceptions as Rex, he's much more cautious. When in doubt, checkdown. Although our offensive line has looked much better, if something happens and it all falls apart, Beck can get away, he has shown that. He is very elusive, and with a line like ours, that can pay off. It's also just a good plus to a QB. It's worked for Vick his entire career. A mediocre QB who can run sometimes isnt so mediocre. Beck will take time to mature, but he is a young QB. He just turned 30, but he doesnt have the wear and tear that a 30 year old QB normally has. The thing that makes an NFL player washed up isnt really his age, but the amount of hits he has taken. Beck has a lot of upside and hasnt reached his true potential, where as Rex has been to the SB, in my opinion he has no where to go but down. Beck won't be flashy or pretty all the time, where as Rex will, but will get the interceptions that come with it. Rex, in a way, is what Redskins are used to. Taking the flashy free agents and reaping the consequences.

Trying to work for a paycheck or win the lottery?

So, i guess the real question is....

[grego]

Beck's numbers are statistically insignificant. You can't take a freakin 5 game sample size of a players rookie season in 2007, and use that as judgment on how he'd play 4 years later in a different scheme with a totally different coach. That's what you, and many others can't seem to grasp. On the other hand, we KNOW what Rex will do in this system or in any system. His career has been consistent and well documented. He sucks - There's no way to sugar coat it. That's why a former third string quarterback is about to unseat him...it's because the Shanahans know what they are going to get from Rex, and that's a whole lot of headache.

And LOL at arguing with Beck being more mobile than Grossman. That to me suggests you don't watch games...just fling stuff and hope it sticks.

i agree with your beck argument, but i think you should apply the same reasoning you used for beck to the rex argument. i dont think we know enough about rex from one year starting in a different system, 5 years ago, to 'know' he sucks. i dont think any QB's first year starting is an indication of career numbers.

[Taiwan32]

Uh, GO NOLES?!?!

As a gator-hater living in Florida, I relish the oppurtunity to hate on the underwhelming QB products from gainesville that have somehow made it to the NFL. This is important because I remember the 2006 season and taking crap from the UF fans around here (most of which could never get into UF let alone graduate). He did indeed have a very good regular season on a team with a very good defense. He had a horrendous Super Bowl. Rex Grossman is by far the best QB to play in the NFL from UF. You also have ot understand that any starting QB at UF is immediately canonized in the state of florida as the greatest QB in the universe. These rednecks can't find the moon on a clear night, but just in case there are aliens somewhere out there, they just want them to know that Tim Tebow could throw a football better than lord Znark of Zoltron. Seriosuly, they really had a huge boner for Timmy who John Elway describes as a joke (in Timmy's defense, Elway is a ****y d-bag who thinks everybody other than him is a joke of QB).

Having Rex Grossman on this team is like God punishing me personally for my hatred of UF, but I've known since 2006 that Rex Grossman was both an amazing and horrible QB. At times he's as good as any QB in the league, and at times he's lucky to complete a pass, let alone not get picked. I do think that Shanny can work with anybody as long as they work with him (cough...Mcnabb). Even still, I can't lose on this one. If he sucks, I get to add to my material of UF QB's being the laughingstock of the league. If he backs up his prediction, I will gladly eat my words.

Objectively, I have been happy with Grossman here. Sadly, I like the guy. IT kind of pisses me off.

[Destructis]

Sometimes stats just aren't important. There have been teams that got to the super bowl because everything just comes together. Fumbles bounced their way, penalties were called on their opponents at opportune times, a corner slips and falls at the right time. A team doesn't necessarily have to dominate to get there. Sometimes it's a team of destiny. It's not the norm, but it does happen.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

Dude, if you rode Grossman's jock any harder, there'd be Little Rex Jrs. riding tricycles in your driveway.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

I wonder how Grossman panned out in ASF's QB rating model.

Good question. I was confident in Grossman originally based on my college QB models, projecting future NFL franchise QBs. I have used these statstical models previously to predict franchise QBs such as:

Philip Rivers*

Ben Roethlisberger*

Matt Schaub**

Sam Bradford***

Colt McCoy***

... and such busts as Patrick Ramsey*, Jason Campbell***, JaMarcus Russell***, Jimmy Clausen*** and many others.

*Retroactive projection

**Projection prior to trade by Falcons to Texans

***Pre-draft projection

The models were more accurate than NFL draft order in predicting future NFL success, but still had some notable false positives, including Brady Quinn and Matt Leinart. Late last year, I introduced my college sophomore QB model, which remains my most accurate model yet. It's based primarily on college sophomore seasons, speculatively extended to junior seasons when the first start is the junior season. The theory is that future NFL franchise QBs are always dominant in competition, even when very young / inexperienced. That's a tougher standard, and it screens against QB "improvers" who put together one or two magic seasons after one or more undistinguished seasons.

As examples, both Brady Quinn and John Beck passed my earlier models, but failed my sophomore model.

The sophomore model was more accurate in a retroactive test. On Dec. 25 I used it to predict that Rex Grossman should be an NFL franchise QB, and on Dec. 26 I predicted the same for Greg McElroy, using both models. I've been pulling for the Redskins to play Grossman and draft McElroy since that time.

McElroy currently leads all rookie QBs after 2 games, with an 89.5 QB rating. He's 29 of 48 (60.4%), 267 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs. Grossman is currently #2 in the NFL among likely starters with 2 appearances, with 89.3 QB rating. (Preseason stats, grain of salt, etc.)

Here's what I posted on Dec. 25 about Grossman:

• Projecting NFL QBs from collegiate sophomore seasons: Rex Grossman > Brees > Luck > P. Manning > Roethlisberger > Rodgers > McNabb > Campbell
  

Show me the QB as a college sophomore, I'll show you the NFL QB he can be.

That's the premise, and here are the results. Table below shows actual NFL QB rating based on collegiate sophomore seasons. The ASF projection applies a factor based on number of attempts above / below 400.

This exercise projects 10 franchise NFL QBs, in this order:

1. Sam Bradford
   
2. Rex Grossman
   
3. Drew Brees
   
4. Andrew Luck
   
5. Eli Manning
   
6. Peyton Manning
   
7. Josh Freeman
   
8. Ben Roethlisberger
   
9. Aaron Rodgers
   
10. Philip Rivers
    

This is a modification of my NFL franchise QB model, to deal with the problem of players peaking at different years or showing enormous promise as a sophomore. I took this on to compare the extraordinary sophomore seasons turned in by Andrew Luck and Rex Grossman. I was surprised how accurate the projection was, when expanded to other QBs.

Obviously there are some inaccuracies. No one would argue that Eli is better than Peyton Manning. Cutler and Ryan are much better than their grades (disqualified). However, the model does nicely predict busts (Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Jason Campbell) and overrated QBs (Young). It severely downgrades McNabb, while boosting Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.

The model is far more accurate than NFL draft position (and thus NFL scouts) in predicting NFL performance. Given its relative accuracy, it's amazing that it slots Grossman as #2 overall, above Andrew Luck and many accomplished NFL QBs. It suggests that Grossman's seven games with 100+ QB rating in 2006 were not a fluke. It also demonstrates his propensity to throw for a high percentage of TDs: 8.6% of attempts, which is #2 to Bradford among all qualified QBs on the list. This suggests to me that his four TDs against the Cowboys (and two 2-point conversions) were an essential (almost normal) performance and not a fluke.

Some will object, "What about Grossman's 2002 season as a junior?" When Spurrier left, Grossman played for Ron Zook in a completely different system. His reduced performance in 2002 shows his play to be sensitive to particular systems.

The argument from the data is that Rex Grossman has it in him to be an NFL franchise QB at the very top echelon of the league. That doesn't mean he will inevitably sustain this level of play, but rather that he has this actual potential, demonstrated over a full collegiate season. It's up to the player and to his coaches to deliver this performance over full seasons in the NFL.

If the Shanahans pride themselves on developing QBs, there's no reason to draft a QB in the top two rounds. They have a franchise NFL QB in Rex Grossman, and it's up to them to deliver his potential.