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Tunisian Revolution and the Middle East--And Now, The Withdrawal From Afghanistan (M.E.T.)


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The Egyptian Presidential debate is finally starting...after about 30 minutes of commercials.

https://twitter.com/#!/Bassem_Sabry

Opening line is for Abul-Fotouh, as per the random draw. Question: how do you expect Egypt to be, and how to get there?

3:35 PM

Abul-Fotouh starts by saluting the revolution and the martyrs, begins with Sheikh Emad Effat and Mina Daniale -

3:35 PM

Abul-Fotouh criticises those who were "silent about corruption" during Mubarak, directed at Moussa.

3:36 PM

Fotouh makes another jibe at "those who helped build the regime", then ends with: Bread, Freedom, Dignity, Social Justice.

3:37 PM

https://twitter.com/#!/TheMiinz

Amr Moussa: ''We want a country where people feel safe, a country that is respectful in the world, a country that innovates''

3:38 P

Amr Moussa doesn't mentions martyrs or the revolution.

3:39 PM

https://twitter.com/#!/SultanAlQassemi

On Abbaseya events - Amr Moussa: I didn't wait until I become president, I made calls & demanded police intervene

3:41 PM

Abbaseya events - Abol Futouh: Abbaseya wouldn't have happened if I was president. Peaceful demonstration is a right won in Jan25

3:43 PM

On Abbaseya events - Abol Futouh: Abbaseya is a crime committed by those in power today - whoever they are

3:44 PM

https://twitter.com/#!/OriginalDNE

AbolFotoh: The state should protect everyone's rights, even criminals

3:44 PM

Moussa: State should be prepared to deal with its people with transparency and work towards improving conditions.

3:46 PM

https://twitter.com/#!/DaliaEzzat_

Abouel Fottouh : protests must be understood as a result of a failed regime and must be dealt with accordingly (housing, access to clean water,transportation,employment etc). Those are the real demands of the people.When Egyptians feel that they have an honest president they'll gather around him and help him to do the job.

3:50 PM

So far Fottouh has cited both US handling of occupy wall street and British handling of protests/rioting as the way things should have been done in Egypt.

https://twitter.com/#!/DaliaEzzat_

AF : until when are we going to label those who express their opinions chaotic wrong doers? If a protester is proved to have something wrong then they should be tried according to law not beaten or killed.

3:55 PM

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle-east-live/2012/may/10/egypt-presidential-election-debate?newsfeed=true

Egyptian presidential election TV debate – live blog

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle-east-live/2012/may/10/egypt-presidential-election-debate?newsfeed=true

4.18pm ET/9.18pm BST: The candidates were asked a loaded question about religion, and its role in the state.

Abul-Futouh, a known Islamist, says: "There is no duality between religion and citizenship, the state or the constitution. The nature of Islam is that it looks for the interest of people. When we look for their interests, this is congruous with Sharia law. I see a media attack on Sharia to make people think that limits freedoms, but Sharia protects all people irrespective of religion."

During the rebuttal, Moussa asks Abul-Futouh that he once said that a Muslim could convert to Chrsitianity and vice versa, did he still agree with that?

Abul-Futouh responds by saying that it is inaccurate, what he said is that God gave humankind the right to believe in religion. If a Muslim converts to Christianity, then according to Sharia, he is given his lifetime to revert without compulsion, but the freedom of belief is a right given by God.

https://twitter.com/#!/OriginalDNE

Moussa: Minimum wage should meet people's minimum demands. A maximum wage should also be set.

4:38 PM

Moussa: Basic salary must be reevaluated so that it is reflected in pensions (not just incentives and bonuses)

4:39 PM

Moussa: I am with progressive taxes that takes into account the social status of the poor.

4:43 PM

https://twitter.com/#!/MohammedY

AbolFotoh talks about a min wage of 1200 and rights of working women and unemployed youth

4:41 PM

https://twitter.com/#!/raniadailynews

@DrAbolfotoh finally one of them mentions women! In context of woman-headed households and minimum wage

4:41 PM

https://twitter.com/#!/OriginalDNE

Abol Fotoh: Increase income tax, impose capital tax on property, luxury goods.

4:45 PM

AbolFotoh; Removing energy subsidies from some industries, including private funds in state budget

4:45 PM

Edited by visionary
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http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/05/20125120655116284.html?utm_content=automate&utm_campaign=Trial6&utm_source=NewSocialFlow&utm_term=plustweets&utm_medium=MasterAccount

US partially resumes arms sales to Bahrain

The administration of US President Barack Obama has said it will resume some arms shipments to Bahrain after most were suspended last year during a government crackdown on political dissent.

The State Department said on Friday the administration still has human rights concerns about its strategic Gulf ally and will work with the government to improve the situation but that equipment for Bahrain's "external defence" would be released because it is in US national interests.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18042467

Saudi King Abdullah sacks conservative adviser

Sheikh Obeikan, who was an adviser to the royal cabinet, opposed moves to relax gender segregation.

The dismissal comes shortly after Sheikh Obeikan attacked plans by "influential people to corrupt Muslim society by trying to change the natural status of women".

Sheikh Obeikan achieved a degree of notoriety several years ago with a decree suggesting that unrelated Saudi men and women could mix so long as the man drank the woman's breast milk, thus creating a maternal bond between them.

Um....

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  • 2 weeks later...

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/05/201252175919491219.html

Al-Qaeda claims deadly Yemen suicide blast

Bomber targets soldiers in central Sanaa on the eve of National Day, killing at least 96 people and injuring 200 more.

Al-Qaeda has claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing in the centre of the Yemeni capital that has left nearly 100 people dead.

Officials have said a bomber dressed in military uniform targeted soldiers rehearsing for a parade in Sanaa to mark Yemen's National Day.

Yemen's defence minister and chief of staff were both present at the event but neither was hurt.

Al Jazeera's Jane Ferguson, reporting from Sanaa, said that the death toll was still climbing by late Monday afternoon.

"We are hearing reports that 96 people were killed and many more injured," our correspondent said. "There have been requests for blood donations and the death toll could go even higher."

The huge explosion left scenes of carnage at Sabaeen Square, with bloodied victims strewn across the 10-lane road where the rehearsal was held on Monday morning not far from the presidential palace.

Interestingly enough the bombing seems to have united people in Yemen together against Al Qaeda...at least for one day.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/05/201252116529704653.html

Mali leader injured in attack by protesters

Diancounda Traore, Mali's interim president, was briefly hospitalised after protesters angry at his appointment in a deal struck with the military rulers burst into his office and beat him.

A UN envoy said Monday's attack "seriously" endangered diplomatic efforts to resolve Mali's crisis, suggesting that "maybe other options will now have to be considered".

Just hours after mediators left the country pleased at having convinced coup leaders to accept a deal with coup leader Captain Amadou Sanogo for Traore to stay on to organise elections and end the Tuareg northern rebellion.

Protesters evaded security and pushed their way into Traore's offices in Koulouba, the headquarters of the general secretariat next to the presidential palace, which has stood looted and empty since the March 21 coup.

http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2012/05/21-egyptian-election-poll-telhami

What Do Egyptians Want? Key Findings from the Egyptian Public Opinion Poll

There's been lots of excitement in Libya the past few weeks about elections and registering to vote.

Benghazi had local elections over the weekend.

Here's news about one of the election winners.

https://twitter.com/#!/Sarieldin

Mrs. Najat el-Kekhia got the highest votes in Benghazi Local Council. Great start of Libyan Women.

4:26 PM

1st Winners of the Benghazi Council Elections will replace the current members in the NTC. Najat Kekhia is the first lady to be elected.

4:36 PM

Edited by visionary
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/25/us-egypt-election-brotherhood-meeting-idUSBRE84O15K20120525

The Muslim Brotherhood said it will invite leading politicians knocked out of the country's presidential election to talks whose agenda will include the position of vice president and a future coalition government, a Brotherhood official said.

Yasser Ali said the invitees would include Abdel Moneim Abol Fotouh, an independent Islamist, and Hamdeen Sabahy, a leftist.

The Brotherhood said the first round of the presidential race was won by its candidate, Mohamed Mursi. He will face Ahmed Shafiq, Hosni Mubarak's former prime minister, in a run-off

http://blogs.aljazeera.com/liveblog/Egypt

Some photos from the first round of the election

Edited by visionary
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/26/us-mali-rebels-idUSBRE84P0IF20120526

Mali Tuaregs, Islamist rebels agree to merge, create new state

Mali's Tuareg rebel MNLA and Ansar Dine Islamist militants have agreed to merge and create an independent Islamic state in the north of the country, a rebel spokesman said on Saturday.

The deal between MNLA, which has said it wants an independent secular state in the north, and the al Qaeda-linked Salafist Ansar Dine, which had wanted to impose Sharia across Mali, may complicate international efforts to stabilize Mali after a March coup that plunged the country into chaos.

Celebratory gunfire was heard across the city of Gao and Timbuktu after news of the agreement, residents said.

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http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/05/2012527131849190185.html

Mali government rejects north's independence

Mali's embattled transitional government has rejected the declaration by an alliance of northern rebels of an independent Islamic Tuareg state.

"The government of Mali categorically rejects the idea of the creation of an Azawad state, even more so of an Islamic state," a government official told Al Jazeera on Sunday.

"Even though this state creation is just on paper and not de facto, we are coming forward to stress that Mali is secular and will remain secular," he said.

The two groups that seized control of Mali's north had announced that they agreed to merge and create an independent state in the northern half of the west African nation.

The merger, announced on Saturday, would see the Tuareg separatist-led National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), and Ansar Dine (Defenders of Faith) fighters join forces to nominally control an area the size of France.

"I have just signed an accord that will see an independent and Islamic state where we have Islamic law," Alghabass Ag Intalla, a leader of the Ansar Dine, said.

The group is accused of being linked to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), a North African group responsible for dozens of suicide attacks as well as the kidnappings of foreigners, some of whom were later executed.

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http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/05/28/uk-somalia-conflict-idUKBRE84R05V20120528

African Union troops secure Somali aid corridor

African Union and Somali government troops secured an aid corridor between Mogadishu and a former rebel stronghold close to the capital, the AU said, wresting control of a strip of land believed to hold around 400,000 people displaced by conflict.

The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and Somali forces seized the town of Afgoye from the al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab insurgents on Friday.

The joint operation then took control of Elasha Biyaha, the last remaining al Shabaab stronghold in the 30 km (20 mile) corridor, making the area safe for aid groups to operate in, AMISOM said late on Sunday.

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http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/05/2012528125146103967.html?utm_content=automate&utm_campaign=Trial6&utm_source=NewSocialFlow&utm_term=plustweets&utm_medium=MasterAccount

Shafiq and Morsi confirmed for Egypt runoff

The Egyptian presidential election will come down to a runoff between Ahmed Shafiq, the final prime minister under deposed president Hosni Mubarak, and Mohammed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate, according to final results released on Monday.

Farouq Sultan, the head of the presidential election commission, announced the results at a press conference. Morsi garnered the largest share of votes, nearly 5.8 million; Shafiq came in a close second, with 5.5 million.

The third-place finisher was Hamdeen Sabbahi, a former parliamentarian who had emerged as a favourite candidate for many of Egypt's liberals. He received just over 4.8 million votes.

Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a moderate former member of the Brotherhood, received just over 4 million votes, and Amr Moussa the former Arab League chief, came in fifth with 2.58 million.

Last week's election was the first free presidential ballot in Egyptian history. Around 23 million people voted, Sultan said, a turnout of roughly 46 per cent.

Sultan said that seven candidates had filed complaints about the results. Four were dismissed because of a lack of evidence; the other three were rejected because candidates missed the filing deadlines.

Two of them, Moussa and Aboul Fotouh, refused to endorse either of the frontrunners during separate press conferences on Monday. Moussa lashed out at both winners, saying that "a return to the old regime is unacceptable, [and] so is exploiting religion in politics".

Aboul Fotouh also warned against returning to Mubarak-era leadership, and said he would announce his position later in the week. "The most important thing is that people don't vote for felool," he said, referring to so-called "remnants" of the old regime.

Sabbahi has not yet announced a position, though it seems unlikely that a candidate who campaigned vigorously against the old regime would endorse Shafiq.

Edited by visionary
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Sounds like they certainly had a wide array of choices. Ans several ov them got significant support.

Also sounds like a lot of Egyptian are gonna be complaining about "I gotta pick one of those two???"

Welcome to democracy. :).

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Sounds like they certainly had a wide array of choices. Ans several ov them got significant support.

Also sounds like a lot of Egyptian are gonna be complaining about "I gotta pick one of those two???"

Welcome to democracy. :).

True, but let me add some more context.

Shafiq the ex pm was ruled out of the election by the parliament for being an ex-Mubarak minister.

He was later accepted by the election commision, which is run by judges and somewhat controlled by the military.

(He is also an air force chief) Shafiq also said he wanted to pardon Mubarak and any cabinet members a while back.

In addition there's mention in a recent New York Times article of a statement by him saying he will end the protests and chaos with executions and force.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/28/world/middleeast/ahmed-shafik-counting-on-egyptian-elites-fears.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

Also somehow he got many more votes than the islamists, in districts that are considered Muslim brotherhood strongholds.

Oh yeah and there's reports that hundreds of military conscripts illegally stuffed ballots for him.

So there's some concern by just about everyone over whether he should have been allowed to run and if he really got the number of votes that he got.

As to Morsi the MB guy, there's unhappiness that the Muslim Brotherhood put him forward after saying they wouldn't run any candidates in the pres election.

But that's more of a dishonesty, trust, and them having too much power issue, not necessarily a legal one.

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True, but let me add some more context.

Shafiq the ex pm was ruled out of the election by the parliament for being an ex-Mubarak minister.

He was later accepted by the election commision, which is run by judges and somewhat controlled by the military.

(He is also an air force chief) Shafiq also said he wanted to pardon Mubarak and any cabinet members a while back.

In addition there's mention in a recent New York Times article of a statement by him saying he will end the protests and chaos with executions and force.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/28/world/middleeast/ahmed-shafik-counting-on-egyptian-elites-fears.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

Also somehow he got many more votes than the islamists, in districts that are considered Muslim brotherhood strongholds.

Oh yeah and there's reports that hundreds of military conscripts illegally stuffed ballots for him.

So there's some concern by just about everyone over whether he should have been allowed to run and if he really got the number of votes that he got.

As to Morsi the MB guy, there's unhappiness that the Muslim Brotherhood put him forward after saying they wouldn't run any candidates in the pres election.

But that's more of a dishonesty, trust, and them having too much power issue, not necessarily a legal one.

Yeah, but there are other ways of explaining his numbers, too.

This could well be a case where there's one "regime" candidate, and 15 "non-regime" candidates.

Look at the GOP primaries. How much different would they have been if Santorum and Gingrich hadn't been splitting the SoCon vote?

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Yeah, but there are other ways of explaining his numbers, too.

This could well be a case where there's one "regime" candidate, and 15 "non-regime" candidates.

Look at the GOP primaries. How much different would they have been if Santorum and Gingrich hadn't been splitting the SoCon vote?

Possibly, but Amr Mousa the former foreign minister was considered a regime candidate as well and was expected to get the most votes.

He came in 5th and actually called for investigations into the results and for Shafiq to resign, lol.

But you may be right. Shafiq was not supposed to get very many votes, but may have been overlooked.

People in Egypt though are terrified that he and the SCAF are trying to reverse the revolution now.

Some protesters even torched and ransacked his office tonight.

Although that could be a false flag type thing, but I don't really see any reason to believe that.

In any case things are getting very tense right now.

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Mubarak Trial happening now (EGYPT)

A verdict is expected today

Live Updates

http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/43473.aspx

Mubarak's been staying at the International Medical Centre. According to a Reuters piece, it isn't exactly hard times for this jailbird:
"Hosni Mubarak has appeared in court lying on a stretcher during his trial, where he faces a verdict on Saturday, but Egypt's former president is living in a comfortable hospital where he is free to see relatives, walk in the garden and exercise, news reports and a source said this week.

The newspaper depicted the 84-year-old Mubarak, ousted in an uprising in February 2011, as a cosseted retired official, exercising and swimming as doctors and family attend to his needs at Cairo's International Medical Center (IMC).

The ousted president, who is wearing a training suit with a biege top and black trousers and a pair of sunglasses, is wheeled in, lying on a stretcher and wheeled into the Police Academy. For those out there following Mubarak's past fashion picks, the ousted leader was last wheeled in wearing a blue training suit with light blue stripes...and sunglasses.

AuXqBaqCEAAh5oJ.jpg

Live coverage

http://www.aljazeera.com/watch_now/

https://twitter.com/#!/SultanAlQassemi

Wow, the judge calls Mubarak's era "black, black, black" "hopeless era" that came to an end through the "brave sons of Egypt"

4:05 AM

https://twitter.com/#!/sharifkouddous

Judge Refaat on Mubarak rule: "30 years of oppression," "depriving people of daily bread...minimum amount of dignity"

4:07 AM

Judge is really giving it to Mubarak's rule and praising revolution in poetic-heavy terms

4:08 AM

https://twitter.com/#!/sharifkouddous

Former Interior Minister Habib El Adly sentenced to life in prison for accessory murder

4:21 AM

https://twitter.com/#!/imothanaYemen

Life in prison for Mubarak for premeditated murder.

4:22 AM

https://twitter.com/#!/Beltrew

Habib El-Adly's 6 aides are not guilty

4:24 AM

Mubarak's sons Alaa and Gamal are acquitted

4:29 AM

People's elation at Mubarak's verdict has turned to anger and now chaos and fighting, after the others got off with no punishment. There is a sense that Mubarak and Adly were sacrifices and will both be living it up in confinement and that this is all for show.

https://twitter.com/#!/Sarahcarr

The State Security officers have been found innocent just in time to resume their activities under Shafiq.

4:25 AM

https://twitter.com/#!/HodaAH

so the policemen were acquitted a few days ago, their superiors acquitted so who killed the protestors?

5:13 AM

https://twitter.com/#!/sharifkouddous

I repeat: court convicted Mubarak & Adly for failing to stop killings, not convicted for having aiding and abetting killing protesters

5:16 AM

https://twitter.com/#!/SultanAlQassemi

CNN: Husni Mubarak transferred to Tora maximum security prison

5:34 AM

The government scrambling to do damage control?

Clashes going on across Cairo now.

Edited by visionary
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http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/20126213282116563.html

Mubarak given life term for protester deaths

Egypt's ex-president and his interior minister sentenced to life while his sons and six other officials are acquitted.

Following the announcement of the verdict, several groups called for protests to be held across the country.

By mid-afternoon, hundreds of people had converged on Cairo's Tahrir Square, with larger crowds expected in the evening.

Almost 1,000 people staged a separate march to the supreme court, where they threw rocks and broke windows.

https://twitter.com/#!/SultanAlQassemi

Two images live from Tahrir. Crowds chanting "Baatel" (void) in reference to Mubarak cronies verdict http://pic.twitter.com/gcRT5mqY

1:50 PM

Tens of thousands gather now in Tahrir. Ahmed Shafik (Mubarak's lash PM) big loser from today's verdicts http://pic.twitter.com/zoZOIK0A

2:00 PM

Mubarak's room in Tora prison cost EGP8 million ($1.3million). - Sky News Arabia correspondent

2:08 PM

https://twitter.com/#!/shadihamid

RT @Zeinobia: Abu El Fotouh is in Tahrir square now

3:16 PM

RT @liamstack: Morsi's car arrives and is thronged w supporters. Some scream "mr president!"

3:16 PM

As all of this is going on, I can't help but wonder whether we're underestimating SCAF once again.

3:18 PM

I'd like to think Egyptians are united in anger over #MubarakTrial but the events of the past year and a half suggest they're probably not.

3:21 PM

RT @ghazalairshad: Khaled Ali, Hamdeen Sabbahi, Abul Fotouh, & Morsi in Tahrir tonight. Shafiq MIA.

3:26 PM

https://twitter.com/#!/ManarMohsen

Tens of thousands in Tahrir, with chants varying from "one hand" to "down with the military regime." Demands fairly scattered as well

3:32 PM

Aboul Fotouh just went through Tahrir, chants of "eed wahda" (one hand) as hundreds surround him.

3:32 PM

https://twitter.com/#!/evanchill

Sabahi's campaign has announced a joint presser with Aboul Fotouh and Khalid Ali on Monday to state position on prez elec and protests.

5:34 PM

https://twitter.com/#!/Bassem_Sabry

Incredible picture of protesters and Hamdeen Sabahi in Tahrir earlier today. You can see the Free Syrian & Libyan flags http://pic.twitter.com/tox8JXaG

5:56 PM

AuamMzACAAAU09P.jpg

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/04/us-yemen-violence-idUSBRE8530P320120604

Yemeni troops, tanks advance on al Qaeda-held town

Hundreds of Yemeni troops backed by tanks advanced in a bid to retake a coastal town from al Qaeda-linked fighters on Monday, residents said, part of a U.S.-backed offensive in a country Washington sees as a frontline against Islamist militants.

"They are getting ready to fight," one resident, who declined to be named, told Reuters by telephone. Via text message, the head of the southern military zone asked people living in the area not to use the roads around Shaqra and two other towns controlled by militants.

Shaqra lies on Yemen's southern coast, along a major shipping route that is also the gateway for Somalis entering the country to fight alongside militants.

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http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/yemen-democracy-opponents-face-sanctions-16495267#.T81087XIjIU

Yemen Democracy Opponents Could Face Sanctions

A proposed U.N. Security Council resolution that circulated Monday supports efforts by Yemen's president to advance the country's transition to democracy and threatens non-military sanctions against those trying to undermine the country's national unity government.

Diplomats said the five veto-wielding council members — the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France — agreed on the text and circulated the draft to the 10 non-permanent members. Experts from the 15 council nations are expected to discuss the text Wednesday, the diplomats said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the draft has not been made public.

Last week, the U.N. envoy to Yemen, Jamal Benomar, told the council that despite President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi's "strong leadership," the country's transition is taking place "against a backdrop of serious security concerns, an unprecedented humanitarian crisis and many unresolved conflicts." Benomar also said al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula "continues to pose a major threat."

Hadi was sworn in on Feb. 25 to replace longtime leader Ali Abdullah Saleh, following an uncontested election aimed at ending more than a year of political turmoil.

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http://tweepforum.ly/opinion/despite-airport-incident-henry-kissinger-is-wrong-about-libya/#.T86cKYnd5Jc.twitter

Despite Airport Incident, Henry Kissinger is Wrong about Libya

There is a kind of black legend about Libya, that it has become a failed state and is a mess, that there are armed militiamen everywhere, that everybody is a secessionist, that the transitional government is not doing anything, that people of subsaharan African heritage are bothered in the streets, etc., etc. The black legend is promoted in part by remnants of the Qaddafi regime and his admirers in the West, in part by overly anxious middle class Libyans navigating an admittedly difficult transition, in part by media editors looking for a dramatic story.

Henry Kissinger, in his recent op-ed against intervention in Syria, listed the erasure of the Libyan state as an argument against such interventions. I read the allegation with disbelief. Libya is not like Somalia! It isn’t even like Yemen. (The Libyans I talked to about Yemen sympathized with the country’s problems but were astonished to hear that some Western observers looked a their situations as similar!)

So imagine my surprise on visits to Benghazi, Misrata and Tripoli, to find that there were no militiamen to be seen, that most things were functioning normally, that there were police at traffic intersections, that there were children’s carnivals open till late, families out, that jewelry shops were open till 8 pm, that Arabs and Africans were working side by side, and that people were proud in Benghazi of having demonstrated against calls for decentralizing the country.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18364762

Defections put militant al-Shabab on the run in Somalia

The Islamist al-Shabab group that controls much of southern Somalia has recently suffered several significant defeats. The BBC's Gabriel Gatehouse has been travelling with Ugandan soldiers in the African Union force that has been fighting the al-Qaeda-allied militants and reports from Afgoye, until last month one their key strongholds.

In the town of Baidoa, near the Ethiopian border, local residents said al-Shabab had been forcing young men and even boys to fight in a desperate attempt to bolster their numbers.

The result, they say, has been a wave of defections.

And the defectors have helped the African Union and their Somali interim government allies to arrest yet more fighters.

For many years now, the balance of power in Somalia has shifted among a patchwork of rival clan warlords.

People understand this system. They respect it.

For a while, al-Shabab became the dominant force in this power struggle.

But now the group is in retreat - many here sense its weakness and that may turn out to be the most fatal blow of all.

One man here observed: The African Union is now the biggest warlord in town.

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siachen.jpg

http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/43056

Cold War

Why are India and Pakistan sacrificing hundreds of soldiers' lives over an uninhabitable icy wasteland?

"They look like animals when they come down, unshaven, dirty, and thin as rods," said an Indian officer in September 2003, describing troops returning from a three-month stint on Siachen, where India and Pakistan had fought a war over an uninhabitable wasteland of snow and ice on their border since 1984. In November 2003, the two sides agreed on a cease-fire; since then neither has fired a shot. Yet thousands of men remain, still dying from the brutal conditions -- in April, an avalanche buried 140 Pakistani troops and their civilian staff alive.

This week, senior civil servants from India's and Pakistan's defense ministries are meeting in Pakistan, but expectations are low. It is a measure of the peculiar intransigence of India-Pakistan relations that despite repeated calls for a negotiated settlement -- renewed by Pakistan's Army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, after the avalanche -- neither country can find a way to bring their men down from the mountains.

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https://twitter.com/#!/adammbaron

(Secessionist leaning) sources involved in the fight in abyan confirm that ansar alshariah has been pushed out of jaar, zinjibar yemen

10:11 AM June 12

somewhat celebratory air in Aden. But many keen to give credit to (largely secessionist) 'popular committees' rather than yemen's military

10:24 AM June 12

Currently in jaar was just in zinjibar. Both under goverment control, odd calm.

4:51 AM

Met gov of aden, minister of defense on top of mount khanfar, an ansar bastion just days ago

4:56 AM

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God...damn it!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/2012614124538532758.html

Egypt court orders dissolving of parliament

In another setback for Egypt's fledgling political process, elected officials have been disqualified and the lower house of parliament dissolved.

The court ruled on Thursday that one third of the seats in the Islamist-dominated parliament were invalid, stirring fresh uncertainty in the politically divided country.

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), the country's ruling military council, then announced that if any part of the parliament is illegal, then the entire body should be dissolved.

Egypt's constitutional court also ruled against a law that would have barred deposed president Hosni Mubarak's last prime minister Ahmed Shafiq from standing in this weekend's presidential poll runoff.

After conflicting reports in Egyptian media over whether a third, or the entire, parliament was to be dismissed, Al Jazeera's Rawya Rageh obtained a copy of the court decision, which explicitly states that the entire parliament is dismissed because of "constitutional violations".

Shafiq welcomed the court rulings in a conference before his supporters, saying an "era of political score settling" was over.

"The message of this historic verdict is that the era of political score settling has ended," Shafik told cheering crowd in Cairo. "The constitutional court has confirmed my right to participate in the election and reinforced the legitimacy of this election."

Rawya Rageh said it was "really a victory speech ... addressing Egyptians almost as president and not as a candidate".

https://twitter.com/#!/iyad_elbaghdadi

ElBaradei calls upon SCAF to delay the presidential elections.

11:26 AM

ElBaradei: Without a parliament or a constitution, we won't be electing a president, we'll be electing a tyrant.

11:27 AM

https://twitter.com/#!/SultanAlQassemi

Al Arabiya: El Baradei: Electing a prez without a parliament or constitution will give him absolute power. I demand a presidential council

11:45 AM

Al Jazeera: Military source: The next president will swear an oath in front of SCAF not the parliament

11:52 AM

Edited by visionary
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http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/2012615111159451314.html

Another al-Qaeda stronghold 'falls' in Yemen

Yemen's army has recaptured the last al-Qaeda stronghold in southern Abyan province, officials and residents said.

This is the third jihadist bastion in the south to fall in the space of a week, a military official said on Friday.

"The army has taken control of Shuqra," said the official, adding that "troops have taken positions in the centre" of the coastal city while fighters fled.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47826377

Militants defecting to Somali side after losses

ELASHA BIYAHA, Somalia (AP) - Evil laughter pealed out of the mobile phone. Abshir Ali Mohamed, an al-Shabab defector now wearing a Somali military uniform, had asked his former commander to join him. The commander, an al-Shabab judge known for ordering amputations, said he would instead kill Mohamed.

Somali military and government leaders say Mohamed's defection is an example of a trend growing in their favor, with the East African country's most notorious militant group losing manpower and ground. The 24-year-old former insurgent left al-Shabab less than two weeks ago and now wears a bright blue patch with a white star - the Somali flag - on the shoulder of his government uniform.

"Al-Shabab is no longer. It's going to end soon," Mohamed said last week at freshly dug Ugandan-Somali military base on the outskirts of Mogadishu. The base was set up after African Union troops kicked militants out of the towns of Elasha Biyaha and Afgoye.

"Al-Shabab is changing sides because of heavy losses. Those who still fight with them are running away in small groups. They've lost weapons. They've lost personnel," he continued. More are looking to flee, he said.

Somali government spokesman Abdirahman Omar Osman said Thursday that some 500 al-Shabab fighters have defected to the government side.

As a foreign policy analyst mentioned on twitter earlier it seems that Al Qaeda and Shabab's time of control may be coming to an end in Yemen and Somalia.

Edited by visionary
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http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/16/world/meast/saudi-arabia-crown-prince-dies/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Saudi Crown Prince Nayef dies

Saudi Crown Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz, a hard-line conservative who is credited with pushing back al Qaeda, has died, Saudi state TV reported Saturday.

Nayef, who had been named crown prince in October by his brother the king, was heir to the Saudi throne. State TV broadcast Quran readings as an expression of mourning for the prince, who died in Geneva, Switzerland.

"It is a shock. We all knew his health was frail but his death is a shock," Saudi Foreign Ministry spokesman Osama Nogali told CNN. "We still don't know the reason behind his death."

The Saudi Press Agency published a statement from the Royal Court, saying it "condoles the Saudi people on the deceased prince pray to God to bless his soul and to reward him for his services to his religion and homeland."

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/06/16/prince-salman-meet-the-next-saudi-king.html

Meet Prince Salman, the Next Saudi King

He’s 76 years old, a hawk when it comes to Iran, a dove when it comes to peaceful reform—and, with the death of his brother, the kingdom’s new heir. Bruce Riedel on Prince Salman.

YEMEN

https://twitter.com/#!/narrabyee

Celebrations started in Shuqrah, after army drove Al Qaeda out, and road reopened to Ahwar and Mukalla.

7:36 AM

President Hadi gave courage medal to the anti-Al Qaeda popular committees in Abyan. Predident Hadi also gave the courage medal to anti-Al Qaeda popular committees in Lahj and Baidha.

2:22 PM

Al Qaeda will withdraw from Azzan to save blood also as it did in Jaar, Zinjubar and Shuqrah, said tribal leaders mediating with Al Qaeda

1:14 PM

Al Qaeda is to withdraw from Aazan, the last, last stronghold in Shabwah, tonigh to mountains of Al Kur, tribal sources said late Saturday

1:55 PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemen

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Yemen_division_2012-3-11.svg

So they've been mostly pushed out of Abayan and Shabwah governorates now.

Of course they may still be hiding in the mountains afterwards.

This guy gives a different perspective though:

https://twitter.com/#!/almuslimi

Says that there is still a very anti-army, anti-north/unification mood in the southern provinces.

I hope the government takes note of the feeling against them in the far north and the southern provinces.

Perhaps some sort of federalization is necessary.

Edited by visionary
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http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/06/17/saudi-crownprince-idINDEE85G05W20120617

Saudi king seeks successor as crown prince buried

Saudi Arabia's elderly king led funeral prayers on Sunday for his heir, Crown Prince Nayef, whose death forces him to find a new successor capable of tackling domestic unemployment, bitter rivalry with Iran and turmoil in close Arab neighbours.

Mecca's Great Mosque, Islam's holiest place, was lined with members of the al-Saud ruling family and leaders of Arab states as an imam led the sunset prayer next to the body of Nayef, who died on Saturday.

Among the mourners was the man most likely to be named as successor: Prince Salman, 76, who is seen as more likely to continue the 89-year-old King Abdullah's cautious economic and social reforms than the conservative Nayef.

I saw earlier King Abdullah and Tantawi of Egypt's SCAF sitting side by side at the funeral.

Edited by visionary
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