Slaga's Power Rankings - Week 7

[slaga]

See post 3.

[Dan T.]

Good stuff as always Slaga. It warms my heart to see the Dallas Cowboys at #30 behind the likes of the Lions, Browns, and Raiders.

[slaga]

What is kind of funny is I started this last year on ES and we all know how well the season went for us. This year I started posting it on CZ as well and you see where the Cowboys season is heading. I guess I should find an Eagle's or Giant's board for next year.

Dallas has had the 5th toughest schedule to date, the 8th toughest schedule left to play, have only won 1 game in the first 7 weeks, lost their starting QB for the next 6-10 weeks and will need to rely on a fairly immobile 38 YO QB behind a pretty pourus offensive line. The future does not look good for the Cowboys, unless you are a Skins fan.

Well I made a mistake in my rankings. Going from week 6 to week 7, I changed the win/loss records but forgot to change the formulas. I corrected my mistake and here is how everything shakes out:

Rank (Last Week) Team Combined Winning %

1 (1) Pittsburgh Steelers 70.4%

2 (2) New England Patriots 67.2%

3 (3) New York Jets 65.9%

4 (4) Baltimore Ravens 59.7%

5 (7) New York Giants 59.5%

6 (5) Atlanta Falcons 59.4%

7 (6) Indiannapolis Colts 59.4%

8 (12) Tennessee Titans 58.7%

9 (15) Kansas City Chiefs 58.6%

10 (10) Houston Texans 57.6%

11 (16) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 56.9%

12 (17) Seattle Seahawks 55.1%

13 (18) Washington Redskins 54.1%

14 (8) Arizona Cardinals 53.7%

15 (14) Chicago Bears 52.9%

16 (11) Philadelphia Eagles 52.7%

17 (13) Miami Dolphins 52.0%

18 (20) Green Bay Packers 50.8%

19 (9) New Orleans Saints 50.6%

20 (19) St. Louis Rams 47.4%

21 (21) Jacksonville Jaguars 44.3%

22 (22) Denver Broncos 43.9%

23 (26) Oakland Raiders 43.3%

24 (28) Cleveland Browns 42.5%

25 (25) Cinncinnati Bengals 41.9%

26 (24) San Diego Chargers 41.8%

27 (23) Minnesota Vikings 40.7%

28 (29) Dallas Cowboys 34.9%

29 (30) Detroit Lions 34.0%

30 (27) San Franciso 49ers 33.6%

31 (32) Carolina Panthers 30.6%

32 (31) Buffalo Bills 27.8%

By Division:

1 (1) AFC South 55.0%

2 (3) AFC North 53.6%

3 (2) AFC East 53.2%

4 (4) NFC East 50.3%

5 (6) NFC South 49.4%

6 (5) NFC West 47.5%

7 (7) AFC West 46.9%

8 (8) NFC North 44.6%

Difficulty of Schedule (Previous Opponents)

Rank Team Percentage

1 Buffalo Bills 64.7%

2 Cleveland Browns 64.3%

3 Denver Broncos 63.6%

4 Pittsburgh Steelers 59.9%

5 Dallas Cowboys 59.5%

6 Miami Dolphins 56.7%

7 San Diego Chargers 56.5%

8 Cinncinnati Bengals 56.3%

9 Indiannapolis Colts 55.6%

10 San Franciso 49ers 54.1%

11 Houston Texans 53.6%

12 Detroit Lions 53.2%

13 Washington Redskins 52.0%

14 Arizona Cardinals 51.6%

15 Carolina Panthers 50.0%

16 Tennessee Titans 49.0%

17 Baltimore Ravens 48.6%

18 Philadelphia Eagles 47.3%

19 St. Louis Rams 46.9%

20 Minnesota Vikings 46.8%

21 Atlanta Falcons 46.3%

22 Jacksonville Jaguars 45.6%

23 New York Giants 44.6%

24 New England Patriots 44.4%

25 New York Jets 44.4%

26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43.7%

27 Chicago Bears 43.2%

28 Oakland Raiders 43.2%

29 Kansas City Chiefs 41.3%

30 New Orleans Saints 40.1%

31 Green Bay Packers 38.8%

32 Seattle Seahawks 36.9%

Difficulty of Schedule (Future Opponents)

Rank Team Percentage

1 Arizona Cardinals 36.7%

2 Kansas City Chiefs 40.2%

3 New England Patriots 42.1%

4 St. Louis Rams 42.9%

5 Pittsburgh Steelers 45.0%

6 Denver Broncos 45.2%

7 Chicago Bears 46.0%

8 San Diego Chargers 46.6%

9 New York Jets 47.6%

10 San Franciso 49ers 48.1%

11 Miami Dolphins 48.8%

12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 49.3%

13 New York Giants 49.5%

14 Washington Redskins 49.7%

15 Green Bay Packers 49.7%

16 Seattle Seahawks 50.0%

17 Detroit Lions 50.5%

18 Minnesota Vikings 50.7%

19 Philadelphia Eagles 50.8%

20 Atlanta Falcons 51.3%

21 Indiannapolis Colts 51.4%

22 Cleveland Browns 51.6%

23 New Orleans Saints 52.1%

24 Baltimore Ravens 52.6%

25 Dallas Cowboys 53.3%

26 Buffalo Bills 53.6%

27 Jacksonville Jaguars 54.2%

28 Cinncinnati Bengals 55.2%

29 Oakland Raiders 55.6%

30 Houston Texans 56.4%

31 Tennessee Titans 56.9%

32 Carolina Panthers 61.0%

[frostyj]

Fox's rankings have the Puke's going up one spot to 25th.

They lost the game and their starting QB, so they must have gotten that spot on pure talent.

[ouvan59]

Does your win/loss record include the games those teams have played in?

[TotalRecall]

How do you get those numbers? The Steelers have played opponents thus far with a combined 24-16 record (the past two games (Browns, Dolphins) brought their average down). The Packers have played opponents thus far with a combined 18-27 record. It sounds like you got your numbers backwards.

And I'm not following "Team Combined Winning %".

[slaga]

Does your win/loss record include the games those teams have played in?

How do you get those numbers? The Steelers have played opponents thus far with a combined 24-16 record (the past two games (Browns, Dolphins) brought their average down). The Packers have played opponents thus far with a combined 18-27 record. It sounds like you got your numbers backwards.

And I'm not following "Team Combined Winning %".

Steelers:

Their own win loss record is 5-1=83.3%

Past Opponents

Falcons (5-2=71.4%) + Titans (5-2 = 71.4%) + Bucs (4-2 = 66.7%) + Ravens (5-2 = 71.4%) + Bye + Browns (2-5 = 28.6%) + Miami (3-3 = 50%)

(71.4 + 71.4 + 66.7 + 71.4 + 28.6 + 50)/6 = 59.9%

This is listed in the second set and the Steelers have played the 4th toughest schedule to date.

Future Opponents

[saints (57.1%) + Bengals (33.3%) + Pats (83.3%) + Raiders (42.9%) + Bills (0%) + Ravens (71.4%) + Bengals (33.3%) + Jets (83.3%) + Panthers (16.7%) + Browns (28.6%) ] / 10 = 45.0%

This is listed in the 3rd set and the Steelers are facing the 5th easiest schedule in the league.

Combine Winning Percentage:

1/2 is their own record and 1/4 is past opponents and 1/4 is future opponents records.

[Own + Own + Past + (100 - Future) ] / 4 =

[ 83.3 + 83.3 + 59.9 + (100 - 45) ] / 4 = 70.4%

They are ranked #1 in the 1st set above!

Note:

1. For the future I used (100 - Future). This is because if a team has a really easy schedule like all of the future games are played against teams that are averaging 1-4 (20%), that team would have a good chance to win future games so 80% is averaged with their own record and the record of their previous opponents.

2. This is done for each team and then the data is sorted with the following priority:

a) Combined - highest to lowest

Own - Highest to lowest

c) Future - Lowest to highest

3. I never wanted the future % to count more than 25% of the total so the first half of the season works as shown above. At the half way point it gets much more complicated. At the end of the season, when there are no more future games, the combined total is 66% Own and 34% Past. After 12 games played:

(58% * Own) - 58% is the middle between the 50% at week 8 and 66% at game 16.

The other 42% is split by games played

12/16 games were played so 75% of the 42% is games played - 0.75 * 42 = 31.5%

4/16 are left to play so 25% of 42 % is 10.5%

The combined total percentage at week 12 is:

58% of Own

31.5% of Past

10.5% of Future

Which equals 100% of Total Combined.

4. Every team's win loss record changes every week and it affects every team they have played and every team they are going to play. I got tired of hearing people say "Well who has Kansas City played that is worth a ..." and found a way for me to judge how a team is doing and how I might think they will stack up to other teams in other divisions.

I hope this makes sense.

[TotalRecall]

This is what threw me.

From Post #3:

Dallas has had the 5th easiest schedule to date

From Post #7:

the Steelers have played the 4th toughest schedule to date.

Thanks for posting your formula.

[slaga]

This is what threw me.

From Post #3:

Toughest. Thanks I fixed it. My brain is still on vacation it seems.