slaga Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 Somebody brought this up last year and never followed through so... This is a very basic formula. I take 3 numbers, winning percentages for each team (team %), the average winning % of that teams opponents already played (past op. %), and the average winning percentage of that teams future opponents (future op. %). I average those winning percentages but put a little more emphasis on that teams current winning %. You will notice that the future op. % is in the formula below is "1-fut op %". That is because if the future opponents have an average winning % of 25%, the team has a better chance in winning future games so 75% is averaged with that teams percentages. (Team % + Team % + Past Op. % + (1-Future Op. %))/4 This is the current standings: Rank Week 2 Combined Winning % 1 New York Jets 77.7% 2 San Franciso 49ers 76.8% 3 New York Giants 74.1% 4 New Orleans Saints 70.5% 5 Baltimore Ravens 68.8% 6 Denver Broncos 67.9% 7 Minnesota Vikings 62.5% 8 Indiannapolis Colts 62.5% 9 Atlanta Falcons 60.7% 10 San Diego Chargers 58.0% 11 New England Patriots 56.3% 12 Cinncinnati Bengals 56.3% 13 Seattle Seahawks 51.8% 14 Houston Texans 51.8% 15 Green Bay Packers 50.9% 16 Arizona Cardinals 50.9% 17 Washington Redskins 50.0% 18 Chicago Bears 49.1% 19 Dallas Cowboys 48.2% 20 Philadelphia Eagles 47.3% 21 Buffalo Bills 45.5% 22 Pittsburgh Steelers 44.6% 23 Oakland Raiders 41.1% 24 Miami Dolphins 38.4% 25 Cleveland Browns 38.4% 26 Detroit Lions 36.6% 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 33.9% 28 Kansas City Chiefs 30.4% 29 Carolina Panthers 28.6% 30 Tennessee Titans 25.0% 31 St. Louis Rams 23.2% 32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22.3% 1 NFC East 54.9% 2 AFC East 54.5% 3 AFC North 52.0% 4 NFC West 50.7% 5 NFC North 49.8% 6 AFC West 49.3% 7 NFC South 45.5% 8 AFC South 43.3% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 That's a really interesting idea putting the future op % into the formula. It makes it a little more predictive instead of completely reactive. I look forward to seeing how this formula does later on in the year when the numbers become more defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tr1 Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 This looks about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Jones Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 It's a very interesting idea, I look forward to seeing how it breaks down once there is a larger sample size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsTerps26 Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 can you do this for college football? also, I did LOL at seeing the Jets #1 with a rookie qb. (who i wanted as a skin) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slaga Posted September 28, 2009 Author Share Posted September 28, 2009 can you do this for college football?also, I did LOL at seeing the Jets #1 with a rookie qb. (who i wanted as a skin) It took a while to get every teams schedule along with their winning percentage into an Excel file and that was just 32 teams. There is no way, at least for me, to do this for college ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom [Giants fan] Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 With this formula, the Giants can go to 5-0 and drop. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slaga Posted September 28, 2009 Author Share Posted September 28, 2009 ;6818471']With this formula' date=' the Giants can go to 5-0 and drop. Interesting.[/quote']True, but the teams that would be ahead of them would also have to be undefeated and have a combination of better opponents played against and/or weaker future opponents as judged by each and every opponents current W/L records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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