Hubbs Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Short-term? I mean, I agree with you about timing the market as far as day trading and such goes, but there's a very distinct long-term trend to that graph. The ratio hovers around 5:1, spikes over a few years, then collapses even more quickly and hovers at 5:1. I feel like you're making an argument that could easily have been applied to real estate three years ago. There's a difference between trying to time a market and identifying a bubble, and those three spikes sure look like bubbles to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."- Keynes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hubbs Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."- Keynes Wouldn't that apply to buy-and-hold strategies just as much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Wouldn't that apply to buy-and-hold strategies just as much? Absolutely. I never claimed that buy and hold is perfect, it's just that everything else is worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hubbs Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Ha, fair enough. Still, though, why don't you allow for a difference between timing the market and bubbles? For example, housing prices - other than the Fed deciding to go into overdrive and/or a world dollar firesale taking place, I can pretty much prove that housing prices still have a long way to fall. They're still bubblicious, just not as much as a year ago. If I were looking to buy real estate, I sure as hell wouldn't buy now. I wouldn't define that as timing the market. I would define that as recognizing math and history. But it seems like you wouldn't - is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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