USA Today: Quarterbacks' bad-decision rates are full of surprises / JC info

[bubba9497]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/fantasy/fsv/2008-11-26-qb-bad-decisions_N.htm

Click link for entire article

Quarterbacks' bad-decision rates are full of surprises

By KC Joyner, TheFootballScientist.com

New York Jets quarterback Brett Favre has a reputation for being the most reckless gunslinger in the NFL. But how often do you suppose he takes those crazy risks? Would you guess one in 10 passes? Maybe one in 20?

It's actually only one in 25 this season, according to the bad-decision metric I've developed.

A quarterback is charged with a bad decision when he does something ill-advised that leads to a turnover or a near turnover (such as a potential interception that is dropped). Other examples of mistakes that lead to a play deemed a bad decision include: not seeing a defender in the passing lane; or throwing a pass late and across the middle of the field.

So how does Favre's 4.0% bad-decision rate rank in the NFL? It's high but nowhere near Marc Bulger's league-worst 6.0% mark. And it's not the highest rate among QBs of divisional leaders.

That honor belongs to the Denver Broncos' Jay Cutler. He's chucking questionable passes at a 5.3% clip. He's not only above Favre, he's doing it at nearly three times the pace of supposedly mistake-prone Jake Plummer in his last season in Denver.

Another playoff-contending quarterback who takes more risks than is generally thought is the Miami Dolphins' Chad Pennington. The book on Pennington is that his weak throwing wing is his Achilles' heel, but the metric says his problems stem more from his head than arm. His 4.3% rate is fourth-worst in the league and 0.6% higher than in 2007.

So who is the savviest with the ball? The Washington Redskins' Jason Campbell is tops with a 1.2% mark.

The player, however, who has made the most progress in the shortest time is Matt Cassel.

To provide an idea of just how well the New England Patriots signal-caller is progressing, consider the best showing in this metric over the past five years is Tom Brady's 0.7% mark in 2006.

That means Brady made a mistake on one out of every 143 passes. Cassel wasn't at that pace early in the year, but over the past six games he has only one bad decision in 221 drop-backs.

So he's been positively Bradyesque in more ways than just being the man behind center for the Patriots.

[Shilsu]

I agree Jason Campbell doesn't make too many "bad decisions" but this study by KC Joyner is pretty horrible and useless.

His Top 10 decision makers last year:

1. Jeff Garcia Tampa Bay 1 0.3%

2. Alex Smith San Francisco 3 1.5%

3. Joey Harrington Atlanta 6 1.7%

4. Tom Brady New England 11 1.8%

5. Chris Redman Atlanta 3 1.9%

6. Matt Schaub Houston 6 2.0%

7. Luke McCown Tampa Bay 3 2.1%

8. Drew Brees New Orleans 15 2.2%

T9. Jason Campbell Washington 10 2.3%

T9. Tarvaris Jackson Minnesota 7 2.3%

[fire3fighter4]

Brady and Brees are the only decent ones on that list....

Luke McCown?....

Chris Redman?..

HAHAHAHAHA

what a crowd to be grouped in with.

[Rexx1240]

1.2% is hellagood!! I know the haters will talk about his "low-risk passes" but, according to this article, he leads the league in being careful with the ball. We're not the only team running a west-coast system so I think this is sumthin to be damn proud of. Keep provin the haters wrong JC!!:applause:

[bubba9497]

His Top 10 decision makers last year:

:rotflmao:

nice try, but that list is skewed, most didn't play a great deal giving them limited sample size, just like wr who lead the league in YPC Avg. but have fewer than 10 catches or less.

when you take out those part time players, look the list of regular starters, who played more than a game or two

Garcia, Brees, Brady, Campbell

makes it a little bit different doesn't it

[aubreyjn]

I agree Jason Campbell doesn't make too many "bad decisions" but this study by KC Joyner is pretty horrible and useless.

His Top 10 decision makers last year:

1. Jeff Garcia Tampa Bay 1 0.3%

2. Alex Smith San Francisco 3 1.5%

3. Joey Harrington Atlanta 6 1.7%

4. Tom Brady New England 11 1.8%

5. Chris Redman Atlanta 3 1.9%

6. Matt Schaub Houston 6 2.0%

7. Luke McCown Tampa Bay 3 2.1%

8. Drew Brees New Orleans 15 2.2%

T9. Jason Campbell Washington 10 2.3%

T9. Tarvaris Jackson Minnesota 7 2.3%

thats just obsurd

:dallasuck:eaglesuck:gaintsuck:dallasuck:dallasuck

[Shilsu]

:rotflmao:

nice try, but that list is skewed, most didn't play a great deal giving them limited sample size, just like wr who lead the league in YPC Avg. but have fewer than 10 catches or less.

when you take out those part time players, look the list of regular starters, who played more than a game or two

Garcia, Brees, Brady, Campbell

makes it a little bit different doesn't it

That's his list, not mine. Take it up with KC Joyner if you have a problem with his list.

[bubba9497]

That's his list, not mine. Take it up with KC Joyner if you have a problem with his list.

there's nothing wrong with the list, just the fact you tried to discredit JC accomplishment by ignoring the obvious point of those on the list that were PT QB's.

[bubba9497]

thats just obsurd

:dallasuck:eaglesuck:gaintsuck:dallasuck:dallasuck

no it's not, as stated above limited play skews the results, of the regular starting QB's ....

Garcia, Brees, Brady, Campbell

[Shilsu]

there's nothing wrong with the list, just the fact you tried to discredit JC accomplishment by ignoring the obvious point of those on the list that were PT QB's.

I didn't discredit JC's accomplishment, I discredited KC Joyner's entire bad decision metric. And considering we aren't done with this season, should Jason Campbell's stats this year be considered skewed?

I mean, Tarvaris Jackson and Joey Harrington played more than eleven games last year and they are ranked high on that list.

[Shilsu]

no it's not, as stated above limited play skews the results, of the regular starting QB's ....

Garcia, Brees, Brady, Campbell

2007

Jeff Garcia - 13

Jason Campbell - 13

Tarvaris Jackson - 12

Joey Harrington - 12

Matt Schaub - 11

Alex Smith - 7

2008

Jason Campbell - 11

So tell me how Jason Campbell playing 11 games in 2008 counts but Tarvaris Jackson and Joey Harrington don't count in 2007?

[GC8 Bunta]

im very happy that JC doesnt make many "mistakes" or throw INT

i think JC is a stud QB and will be our QB for years to come...

however, i would like him to be a little more risky...

take the deep shot down field even tho coverage may be a little tight from time to time...

it's like stocks. risk vs reward.

yea.. ok you might throw an INT and cause our #3 defense to have to come back in...

but you might also get a big play. it also helps loosen up the opposing Defense.

i think when he gets more comfortable with the offense... we'll see more "smart risk taking" from JC. we'll see...

[jtyler42]

im very happy that JC doesnt make many "mistakes" or throw INT

i think JC is a stud QB and will be our QB for years to come...

however, i would like him to be a little more risky...

take the deep shot down field even tho coverage may be a little tight from time to time...

it's like stocks. risk vs reward.

yea.. ok you might throw an INT and cause our #3 defense to have to come back in...

but you might also get a big play. it also helps loosen up the opposing Defense.

i think when he gets more comfortable with the offense... we'll see more "smart risk taking" from JC. we'll see...

I think with Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas getting more involved in the offense and gaining JC's trust he will start throwing it up more...I think he is being smart not throwing up jump balls to 5'9 WR's...

[#98QBKiller]

thats just obsurd

Epic spelling fail

[Dirk McGirk]

there is a thin-line between "bad decision" and "making a great play" Campbell is very very conservative with the ball. How often does he zip the ball down the middle of the field, between two defenders to a not-so-open WR or TE? Not that often. He throws outs to wideopen guys, dumps and screens to backs and Wrs, and the ocasional toss-up longball. If no one is WIDE open, he runs or gets sacked. Pretty much the definition of a game manager. The difference between him and say Alex Smith and Harrington are that Jason has the raw talent and intelligence to get the ball to the receiver on time and on a rope with relatively good placement. Jason is also playing for a VERY talented team with a great running game and extremely solid D.

[SirClintonPortis]

Hmm, I'm pretty sure the usual TV viewing angle doesn't show the receivers until after the ball is thrown to one of them unless the pass was short distance one...

[1972FAN]

:rotflmao:

nice try, but that list is skewed, most didn't play a great deal giving them limited sample size, just like wr who lead the league in YPC Avg. but have fewer than 10 catches or less.

when you take out those part time players, look the list of regular starters, who played more than a game or two

Garcia, Brees, Brady, Campbell

makes it a little bit different doesn't it

Good point.

[The Batman]

there's nothing wrong with the list, just the fact you tried to discredit JC accomplishment by ignoring the obvious point of those on the list that were PT QB's.

Jeff Garcia attempted 327 passes - 13 games.

Alex Smith attempted 193 passes - 7 games.

Joey Harrington attempted 348 passes - 12 games.

Tom Brady attempted 398 passes - 16 games.

Chris Redman attempted 149 passes - 7 games.

Matt Schaub attempted 298 passes - 11 games.

Luke McCown attempted 139 passes - 5 games.

Drew Brees attempted 440 passes - 17 games.

Jason Campbell attempted 417 passes - 13 games.

Tarvaris Jackson attempted 171 passes - 12 games.

So while Jason did attempt as many passes as most of the QBs on this list, let's not forget that, oh, JOEY HARRINGTON attempted almost as many. Before we use this list to anoint Jason, we really should consider his company, regardless of how many games they started.

And to be fair, they ALL started more than "a game or two".

[The Batman]

Sorry, double post.

[Shilsu]

KC Joyner's list is bogus because it requires way too much subjectivity from one man. If you really want a good way to rate a quarterbacks' bad-decision, the best way is to find their rate of interceptions.

Rank	Player			Int %
1	Jason Campbell		0.88%
2	Jeff Garcia		1.21%
3	Kerry Collins		1.29%
4	Kyle Orton		1.34%
5	JaMarcus Russell	1.61%
6	Chad Pennington		1.76%
7	Kurt Warner		1.85%
8	Matt Ryan		1.94%
9	Eli Manning		2.08%
10	David Garrard		2.20%

This list looks a lot better than anything KC Joyner comes up with... Also, please note that lack of bad decision DOES NOT EQUAL best decision.

[Rexx1240]

KC Joyner's list is bogus because it requires way too much subjectivity from one man. If you really want a good way to rate a quarterbacks' bad-decision, the best way is to find their rate of interceptions.

Rank    Player            Int %
1    Jason Campbell        0.88%
2    Jeff Garcia        1.21%
3    Kerry Collins        1.29%
4    Kyle Orton        1.34%
5    JaMarcus Russell    1.61%
6    Chad Pennington        1.76%
7    Kurt Warner        1.85%
8    Matt Ryan        1.94%
9    Eli Manning        2.08%
10    David Garrard        2.20%

This list looks a lot better than anything KC Joyner comes up with... Also, please note that lack of bad decision DOES NOT EQUAL best decision.

Good post

[Big Blue Joe]

Good post

I agree. Although Eli Manning being on there kind of discredits the whole thing.

[fire3fighter4]

KC Joyner's list is bogus because it requires way too much subjectivity from one man. If you really want a good way to rate a quarterbacks' bad-decision, the best way is to find their rate of interceptions.

Rank    Player            Int %
1    Jason Campbell        0.88%
2    Jeff Garcia        1.21%
3    Kerry Collins        1.29%
4    Kyle Orton        1.34%
5    JaMarcus Russell    1.61%
6    Chad Pennington        1.76%
7    Kurt Warner        1.85%
8    Matt Ryan        1.94%
9    Eli Manning        2.08%
10    David Garrard        2.20%

This list looks a lot better than anything KC Joyner comes up with... Also, please note that lack of bad decision DOES NOT EQUAL best decision.

The fact that JaMarcus Russels on that list discredits it completely.

Garrard top 10?...No Brees, P. Manning, or Cassel?...bogus.

[Rexx1240]

I agree. Although Eli Manning being on there kind of discredits the whole thing.

Yeah it does, doesnt it. Now why would sumbdy put Eli Manning on a list for his "mistake-free" football?? Crazy, I kno.

[Shilsu]

The fact that JaMarcus Russels on that list discredits it completely.

Garrard top 10?...No Brees, P. Manning, or Cassel?...bogus.

This isn't a list of the Top 10 quarterbacks, it's a list of the Top 10 quarterbacks that make the fewest mistakes. You can believe what you want about JaMarcus Russell, but the man rarely throws an interception.

What's so surprising about David Garrard? Are you forgetting he threw THREE interceptions all of last year? Everybody is on Jason Campbell's nuts for throwing 10 TD to 3 INT in 11 games, David Garrard threw 18 TD to 3 INT in 12 games. Cassel is 11, Manning is 12.