Let's do some math (2003 sacks)

[Ignatius J.]

So as a math major at caltech, I've learned that arithmatic is just about useless, but let's argue over some numbers.

I'm curious how many sacks people think we'll see next year. WE had a terrible (cough, cough, don't believe it for a second) pass rush last year, that ranked us only #9 in sacks. That's unforgiveable.

Anyway, I think we'll easily replicate that number this year, and here's why:

Arrington should get more than ten sacks again this year. This is a key component to our pass rush that should improve over last year. I think the marvin lewis experiment was a success in two ways. First, it got him more used to taking on blockers. If he is going to be a premier pass rusher he needs to get with that program. All indications are that Edwards will move him around more but continue to rush him. I think he got better throughout the year, and could easily contribute 15 sacks this year, but I'm going to only say 10.

The argument against this number is that gardner played a large role in arrrington's success. There is no reason however that noble cannot do the same. Noble will be double teamed if he is in on passing downs, as will BDW. If they are not, they WILL collapse the pocket. MAybe they won't break through, but they will collapse. So they will be double teamed. That is the most importnat part of the pass rush as far as LA is concerned.

Bruce smith should easily rack up 8 sacks. He'll be more rested and he will still have ample opporunity to get in on critical passing downs.

I expect 5 sacks from BDW. He did as much next to Kenard Lang. Expecting less than that from him next to noble is selling him way short. Why didn't he get that many last year? different role in the defense. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Upshaw, who will be coming out on passing downs should still rack up 4 sacks. I think this is conservative. Wynn should also get 4 sacks.

This leaves 9 sacks between trotter, armstead, our safeties, and our backups, simply to replicate the success we had last year rushing the passer. I think we will do better.

I wish that someone somewhere kept track of QB hurries, but to think that this cast is incapable of leading the same kind of pass rush we had last year is, I think, misguided.

Essentially, it is too easy to think that we are replacing gardener with noble and smith with upshaw. I think this is false. We are replacing gardener with BDW and BDW with Noble. In terms of thier roles I think this is more accurate. Upshaw allows bruce smith to rest, and I think this is grossly underestimated in it's efficacy towards improving the pass rush.

Finnally, the man. The arrington. He's only going to be better at rushing the passer this year. He didn't know what he was doing for 4 games last year. HE caught on and had a great performance agianst the rams. I think we'll see more. He's only getting better, and to simply ignore the natural improvement of a defense that has been kept for the most part intact is to ignore the kind of improvement which can drive teams to greatness.

-DB

[Yomar]

I'm no CalTech math major, but that math is fuzzy.

I don't expect a large dropoff in pressure (sacks are only part of the story), but pressuring the QB and covering the inside receivers were the two biggest problems for the D last year. Clearly when you finish in the top 10, your "problems" won't be as pronounced as when you finish 32nd (please hold for painful flashback...) but the ability to pressure the QB is the most glaring hole on the team, and the only way I see it improving is with an improvement in scheme. But even then, don't be mislead into thinking that more blitzing or shifting Lavar around will make that big of a difference. The Eagles scheme works because their DLine is so good at penetrating and getting pressure on their own, their blitzing complements that, but it all starts on the DLine. The D is going to be on the field a lot, its what happens when you have a pass oriented offense, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of tough 4th quarters when the DLine is tired. The D will be solid if unspectacular, there are enough good players there so they will carry their share, but its going to have to be the Offense that carries the team beyond modest expectations and that pressure on a unit with a virgin QB could have been dilluted by addressing the need for a more substantive pass rush threat, something that was not done. But so many other areas were improved, its hard to find fault with the offseason, we can't fill all our holes, we'd end up suffocating.

[BD]

A lot of this will depend on how much the Noble-BDW team can step up to the plate. If one of them doesn't draw a double team, I think the LB position sacks will decrease.

Bruce, on the other hand, will have a good 6-8 sacks.

[Art]

DB,

There are a couple of problems with your premise. First, that despite a relatively sound ranking in sacks that we translated out on the field with consistent pressure. I can think of six Arrington sacks now that were very late, coverage type sacks, and not pressure generated sacks. I'm sure a lot of teams have that kind of thing.

You can look at the number 40 all you want and think we generated consistently good pressure because of that number. Or, you can bother to have watched the games and noticed the incredible lapses in pressure that gave teams too much time in the pocket. The first is a statistical measurement. The second is an observational measurement. In this case, it's hard to deny what your eyes surely told you.

Except for the Dallas game to close the year, we didn't have consistent pressure on the QB all year. That is a clear, unquestioned concern. If you want to look up on the sky, whistle that everything's going to be alright, that's fine by me. It's just not true. Our weakest area as a defense is generating consistent pressure on the QB, which leads me to the second problem I have with your premise.

You say that Lavar will almost certainly have double digit sacks again. I can only pray that doesn't happen. I can only pray Edwards realizes that Lavar is more of a Junior Seau than a Lawrence Taylor and he utilizes Arrington in the way Kurt and Marty did that was so much more disruptive than how he was used by Lewis. You take a poll on Arrington from fans of the Redskins and ask them if he made a larger impact with half a sack all year in 2001 or with 11 sacks last year.

The Lewis experiment with Arrington was an unimaginable failure. You took your most dynamic, heavy hitter out of play after play by putting him on the line where he could be mauled. You wound up injuring him and never allowing him time to step back and heal. Arrington is a stand up player who can do incredible damage against teams flowing to the ball. He can even blitz from a stand up position where he can get a bit of a running start, further highlighting his athletic gifts.

If Arrington is used the same way he was a year ago we're in trouble. With hope he'll be used as a linebacker and he can bring pressure from that position from time to time but to me he shows absolutely no pass rushing skill, despite his athleticism, so, you're wasting his talents by taking him out of position to lower the boom on people.

I wouldn't mind Arrington contributing double digit sacks if he's moved around and allowed to run to the QB as you saw a lot of in the final game and earlier in the year against Tennessee when his wrist was so hurt he couldn't put his arm down. The second have of the Tennessee game may have been Lavar's best performance a year ago, and he did very little in that game statistically. He just altered the game actually.

I hope Big Daddy returns to his form in 2001 when he was as good over the final 11 games or so as Gardener was for us this year. I hope Wynn's knee is feeling good and Upshaw spells Bruce enough to give us a boost when Bruce comes in. I hope for a lot of positives and we have enough talent and depth to not be crazy to so hope. We just shouldn't pretend that last year was a rousing success in some of the ways you may be leading yourself to.

[skinsanity56]

40 sacks was good & sounds great,but they came in bunches.there was to many times where sacks & even a decent pass rush was totally non existant.arrington will be more of a rover style LB rushing the passer from various positions ala derrick thomas.this should cutdown on injuries & fatigue from tangling with Dlineman all day.he will better utilize his quickness also.we should also see more big play ability in pusuing/chasing down the ballcarrier like in 2001.IMO:D

[Ignatius J.]

I guess maybe I should have been a little bit clearer. I'm not necesarily trying to convince people that our defense was a pass rushing machine. I'm also not saying that this means everyhting is fine and good, I'm just not sold on the fact that we're going to have a much worse defense than we did last year due to the loss of gardner.

I'm actually starting to convince myself that we're going to have a better defense than last year, but maybe not by a whole lot. I'm not sure though. The loss of gardener is big, but I'm just not sure how big.

I don't feel that our pass rush is accurately reflected in our respectable sack totals, I'm just trying to get a feel for how much production we're losing with gardener. Common opinion seems to be that our pass rush will be worse this year, and I think that just might be false.

I suppose I can view your counterargument as the following:

sacks are well and good, but what gardner gave us didn't show up in sacks, it showed up in hurries. He was the one collapsing the pocket EVERY play. You might have a point here, but you didn't really say as much. Again, I wish we had hurries as a stat.

But some of your points don't quite contradict what I'm saying. First, with arrington, I'd like to emphasize the fact that I think he'll be better at rushing the passer this year. From a stand up position, which is where I'd like to see him rush from, he can use tools he learned last year. Putting him down as a DE I think will help him as he progresses. In fact this is why I have him down for 10 not 15 or more. He won't be rushing as much, but I think he will be more effective when he does. Let's not take him away from this completely.

Second, you mentioned how a lot of these were coverage sacks. Yet again, I think this helps my case. Our pass coverage will be better this year barring injury to bailey or smoot. This only helps my case that we'll do better in this regard.

In a way, I'm trying to justify my earlier poll, but you agreed that the defense would be better.

Noble and BDW will be couble teamed just about every play. They have to be, since they both will collapse the pocket otherwise. Niether will penetrate like gardner, but sometimes the push is just as important.

Does that change the way you read my post?

-DB

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

Originally posted by DrunkenBoxer

I suppose I can view your counterargument as the following:

sacks are well and good, but what gardner gave us didn't show up in sacks, it showed up in hurries. He was the one collapsing the pocket EVERY play. You might have a point here, but you didn't really say as much. Again, I wish we had hurries as a stat.

Even this understates Gardener's impact.

Gardener was double-teamed almost the entire year. Despite being double-teamed, he was usually the DL player creating the most disruption. He couldn't be blocked clear on rushing plays, and on passing plays he frequently was pushing back the double-team into the QB's face.

These weren't sacks or hurries, but rather the presence of an immovable object in the center of the defense on rushing plays, and a distracting disruption in front of the quarterback on passing plays. The double-team in turn freed up other players on defense to more effectively rush the passer. That the rest of the defense generally did so poorly getting to the QB is particularly scary going into this year, when they won't be helped by Gardener.

Bruce Smith was an exception. He rushed better than I expected, and frequently was pressuring the QB when he wasn't getting sacks. His performance was marred slightly by his inability to close out a number of clear shots at the QB, and marred greatly by his major liability as a run defender. Teams could run right at Bruce with impunity, particularly on passing downs.

Art is dead right about LaVar's limited effectiveness under Lewis. I predicted that in the preseason, including LaVar's wear and injuries that were sure to accumulate. The misuse of LaVar remained the single overriding reason I soured on Marvin Lewis from August on (and took some fair abuse early on for doing so).

If I'm more hopeful than Art, it's not because I think the DL will rush well, but because I hope our back seven will be deployed in more effective pass defense schemes than under Lewis. Obviously Lewis knows what he's doing in designing pass defenses, but his schemes never seemed a fit with our personnel. Players were frequently confused and out of place, LaVar's strengths were ignored, our substandard safeties were exposed, zone schemes wasted the man coverage ability of our CBs, and Smoot faced too many #1 receivers (in addition to having his weak zone defense skills exposed). With a handful of exceptions burned into everyone's retinas (much to Smoot's detriment in particular), it appeared that most pass completions against us were either against zones or against players who shouldn't have had the assignment (e.g., Smoot or Terrell in single coverage of a top WR, Trotter in deep coverage, etc.).

Better use of personnel, more man defense, and a more aggressive back seven (helped by Bowen and better use of LaVar in coverage) would be less likely to be picked apart by QBs with time to throw -- assuming top individual performances by the players in coverage.

I'm not convinced our defensive personnel are any weaker overall than the units that took the field in 2000 and 2001. Those teams fielded very effective defenses (in 2001, after the first five games), and I'm cautiously hopeful that Edwards can deploy an equally effective scheme for our personnel in 2003.

[Even Madder]

"Noble and BDW will be double teamed just about every play"

Ok, now i get it: it was comedy!

Come on man. Yeah the skins were tied for 9th with 40 sacks, but 9 of those came against Dallas, and 3 against the Texans. The skins averaged 2 a game againt the Eagles and half a sack a game against the Giants. That blows. Who really cares if youre racking up sacks against garbage teams but not when it counts?

It doesnt matter what the stats say. Pop a tape in and watch the games. The skins put zero pressure on the Qb last year. Half the time opposing QBs had time to eat a sandwich before they threw the ball.

Unfortunatly i dont see that getting any better. Gardener, player of the year, is gone with no replacement of his calibber. Smith is a year older (and a year drunker i guess). The best we can hope is that the offense is so good that they can control the clock and the defense gets to play with a lead.

[Ignatius J.]

I don't see why both wilkinson and noble won't be double teamed every play. Go back and watch our games against noble and we had to double team him. Granted, we had a weak interior o-line, so I might be misjudging, but I don't think that teams will get away with putting only a single body on him.

The same goes for big daddy, who had a down year last year. Frankly, I'm not going to expect him to play down to his worst year in a while. He'll be playing gardener's position and he did it well in 2001.

Atlanta:

As far as him getting upfield and disrupting the run, I'd agree, except on draw plays. Half the time he'd be terribly out of position because he'd force his way upfield. I think noble will help give us a better run defense overall. It won't be pretty, but I'm going to be that our average is better.

AS far as arrington, I definately agree for the most part, but I do want to see him rushing more than in 2001. WE have other linebackers, and this guy can make plays in the backfield.

To me, I think that the improvement in the back seven is going to make our front four look that much better. I see aclear downgrade at the DT position, but nowhere near a gaping hole. Maybe our pass rush was horrible last year, but I don't think it's going to be much worse.

To me there is no reason why this defense is not capable of being the better unit on a playoff team.

-DB

[Art]

DB,

In your earlier poll, I stated the defense would be better than the offense in my view because the defense remains a talented bunch capable of a finish from 12 on up. The offense with a second year QB may have a problem matching that. I have no problems with much of what you say.

In fact, I agree with you that the loss of Gardener, while huge, may not be the tragedy many here envision. In 2001, Wilkinson was every bit as good over the final 10 to 11 weeks as Gardener was for us last year. He made fewer plays, but caused a greater disruption. Of course, he was in the single man position then, meaning he was not double teamed as much. Noble is a better tackle than Lang was. Lang was active and quick and played pretty well in the spot that draws doubles, but, Noble is BUILT for doubles.

I'm not sure why EM thinks it's a comedy for you to suggest that Noble and Wilkinson will be doubled. We know Noble will be because that's what he does. That's who he is. He's the guy that surrenders himself against two blockers whether the blockers want to block him or not . His style of play allows Big Daddy to take on a majority of single blocking, and that's when Big Daddy can be tough.

I think if we were to have added Myers, or if we add another competent, starting level reserve along the defensive line that we have a legitimate chance to be BETTER as a defense than last year. Simply put, a rotational situation that allows all of our guys to stay more fresh will make each more dangerous. But, a lot of our hope must be pinned on Big Daddy returning to 2001 form, and that Upshaw and Wynn combine for more than 4.5 sacks . I think both are reasonable presumptions.

If Edwards is competent he can get a strong year out of the defense. I just think it's hard to imagine us being a consistently good pass rushing team. If we are that, and Ramsey is the real deal, then we need to start upping our predictions on the outcome of the year .

[flashback]

This isn't exactly on the topic of sacks, but I thought I'd share with you another observation on Noble. This guy watches so much film, every once in a while he'll raise up just before the snap and yell to the defense exactly what play the offense will be running, and he'll be right. It doesn't show up in the stats, but its a huge contribution. Charles Haley used to do that, too.

Noble's pass rush suffers from the fact that he only has 1 move. The bull rush. If he gets under the OGs pads, he can collapse the pocket pretty well, but a 320 lb guard who knows what he's doing generally doesn't have much trouble getting a stalemate in that one. I'll be interested to see how George Edwards lines 'em up on the DL, and whether he has Noble and BDW 1-gap or 2-gap.

Also, I wouldn't be too surprised if BDW ends up being the 3rd best DT on the squad.

[HogsOfWar]

Arrington was probably more effective under Kurt than under Marvin BUT in the long run he will be better off as a pass rusher. Arrington is not that good in coverage. For every Sportcenter highlight monster hit on a receiver going over the middle he blows a coverage assignment and gives up a big play. Arrington's strengths are playing the run and rushing the QB. I'm very curious to see how Edwards uses him. I agree with Sam Huff, who said Arrington could get 16 sacks just rushing on passing downs if he rushes from a standup position just behind the LoS to take advantage of his speed.

[jbooma]

If we finished the season ranked #9 in sacks I will be happy. That is a lot better than say #30. The one thing everyone fails to realize is we never rank high in sacks, we are not known for it haven't been in the top for a long time. Just because we don't have a lot of sacks doesn't make us a bad team. We have one of the best secondary's, and LB groups in the entire NFL. The only stat I care about next year is points given up, that is it. I have a feeling our offense will be scoring more, as long as we score more than the other teams then all of this moot.

[DeathByLinebacker]

Originally posted by HogsOfWar

Arrington was probably more effective under Kurt than under Marvin BUT in the long run he will be better off as a pass rusher. Arrington is not that good in coverage. For every Sportcenter highlight monster hit on a receiver going over the middle he blows a coverage assignment and gives up a big play. Arrington's strengths are playing the run and rushing the QB. I'm very curious to see how Edwards uses him. I agree with Sam Huff, who said Arrington could get 16 sacks just rushing on passing downs if he rushes from a standup position just behind the LoS to take advantage of his speed.

Well, there's also the fact that we really have no option but to use him as a pass-rusher just like we really didn't have an option last year. We can talk about 40 sacks being ranked 9th, but if you just look at sacks by defensive linemen, the Skins ranked 19th last year with only 22. We would have been screwed if Arrington wasn't used to get more than a quarter of our sacks just as we will be this year if he doesn't provide regular pressure.

[Om]

There's another factor that deserves mention here. This year's defense will very likely (or at least it better) benefit from an improved offense that can carry its weight and impart several advantages that last year's really did not.

Be it playing with a lead a bit more often, freeing the D up to pin their ears back with less reservation and go after the passer,

... or not seeing the O go 3-and-out from their own 20 quite as often, forcing a punt from our own goal line that leaves the D starting their defensive possession at midfield, where as a general rule they cannot be as aggressive as they could be starting said possession inside the other teams' 20,

... or simply by virtue of less time on the field, due to the offense converting a few more 3rd downs a game, giving the D breather (huge factor late in games) and/or adjustment time ... or ... well, you get the drift.

I'm a big believer in synergy when it comes to football. If Steve Spurrier, Patrick Ramsey and the offense are noticeably improved, as I think most of us feel they will be, the defense will benefit from it in any number of ways; QB pressures and sack totals being one of the obvious ones.

It all works together.

[Golgo-13]

Two words for you: Jamir Miller.

Danny needs to go get him. He may be the final piece to the puzzle to a playoff team this year.