Kilmer17 Posted February 3, 2003 Share Posted February 3, 2003 I was talking yesterday with a buddy of mine and his dad about the Iraqi issue. His dad was a bigshot in the State Dept years ago and offered a pretty scary scenario. 1st I should say he thinks that the Saudis will assassinate Saddam before the war starts, but aside from that he sees it playing out like this. 1- We start bombing from air and see with the help of coalition including France (he thinks they are full of sh!t) but not Germany. 2- Saddam responds by sending his troups (not the elite) into Kuwait and Turkey. 3- Saddam then sends Scuds with chemicals into Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities. 4- Israel ( now with the hardliners in FIRM control of Govt) responds with a Nuke into Baghdad killing Saddam along with hundreds of thousands of other people. 5- Egypt crosses the Sinai and Turkey, Syria, and every other Arab nation either joins the fight against Isareal or refuses to join the US coalition to defend Israel. Then we have to deal with NK. Happy thoughts for a monday. I hope his first scenario is correct. The Saudis could end this very easily and quickly if they would take him out for us. No Arab country would cry if they did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riggo-toni Posted February 3, 2003 Share Posted February 3, 2003 Despite all their threats, no Arab gov't will invade Israel - it would be suicide. In '67 and 73, they had the USSR watching their backs. The Israelis were actually marching towards Damascus ready to occupy Syria until the Russkies warned them they would nuke Tel Aviv if the Israelis didn't withdraw. Iraq will bomb Israel to try and make Saddam a hero among Arabs, but not much is going to come of it. I don't think the Saudis will be able to knock off Saddam either. Nobody's been able to get to him. Maybe they'll convince him to accept exile, but I doubt it. The problems in Iraq won't be with winning the war - that part will be easy. It will be the aftermath. Occupation will breed massive Arab resentment, and democracy won't work either because Iraq is not a nation - it is an empire. If its people had the right to self-determination, they would vote to break into separate countries, just as the people of the USSR, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia did. Unfortunately, that solution would be totally unacceptable to Turkey or Syria, who are paranoid about the potential rise of Kurdish nationalism. It would also be dreaded by many of our own analysts, who fear an alliance between an independent Shiite state in the South and Iran. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@DCGoldPants Posted February 3, 2003 Share Posted February 3, 2003 I agree with Riggo. I think if Israel responds to an attack by blowing away Saddam. A lot of people in the Arab community will be secretly happy with the fall of that Government. They will then "Damn" Israel for its actions but not attack themselves since they'd get worked by the Israeli military. I could see numbers 1 through 4 happening though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brave Posted February 3, 2003 Share Posted February 3, 2003 I could see #1 through #3 maybe, but I think Israel would likely respond quickly and heavily but conventionally. I can't imagine Israel responding with nukes unless their very nation is threatened, which I don't think Saddam could do with what he has at his disposal right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilmer17 Posted February 3, 2003 Author Share Posted February 3, 2003 I think his key point was that Iraq would use WMDs first by using Chemical Scuds. With the current hardliners in Israel in power, they would respond with the same WMDs or worse. I think we all agree that the hard part will be post Saddam. Which is why a Saudi assassination of Saddam is most welcome. The Arab street wouldn't be as PO'd if they do it rather than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redman Posted February 3, 2003 Share Posted February 3, 2003 This scenario from your friend is noteworthy for significantly dumbing down Israel's foreign policy. If this were the proverbial Israel versus the Middle East scenario that we saw 30+ years ago, meaning that the U.S. was not deploying there to fight Iraq with an international coalition, and that all of the Iraqi aggression that we're currently seeing was directed towards Israel alone, and not towards a U.S.-led coalition, then Israel might use a nuke. That won't happen short of a catastrophic attack on them by Iraq, and by that I mean at least hundreds and more likely thousands killed, and only (and this is noteworthy) with the use of WMD's by Iraq. International law deplores it, but can understand a nation retaliating an attack with WMD's with a WMD counterstrike. However, it's noteworthy that if Iraq actually used WMD's, then that will automatically turn world opinion against them, even among the moderate Arab states. Also, in the event they use WMD's, we may be the country that strikes back "for them" by hitting, for example, Tikrit (Saddam's hometown and Iraqi power base) with a tactical nuke. I'm sure that we have some deadly serious ongoing discussions now with Israel over this situation, and reminding them how important it is for all involved for them to keep a low profile in this conflict like they did during Gulf War I. As for point number two, Saddam's army won't get anywhere close to Kuwait and Turkey. The moment we saw them mobilizing, they'd be destoyed from the air and our ground forces in both of those countries would immediately mobilize to attack them. Besides, Iraq's military which is already outdated and suffering from maintenance and training shortages, didn't even attack well when they were at their peak during Gulf War I. They'll hunker down like they did then, and will at most only launch little tactical attacks like we saw at Khafji (which was poorly organized BTW), rather than strategic ones like your friend's scenario envisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redman Posted February 3, 2003 Share Posted February 3, 2003 Originally posted by Kilmer17 I think we all agree that the hard part will be post Saddam. Which is why a Saudi assassination of Saddam is most welcome. The Arab street wouldn't be as PO'd if they do it rather than us. The problem here is not so much Saddam as his regime. Killing him or exiling him changes nothing. That regime needs to be yanked out by the roots. Besides, where does anyone get the idea that the Saudi's have either the know-how, the political will (read as "cajones") or the access to Saddam to kill him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief skin Posted February 3, 2003 Share Posted February 3, 2003 The Saudis don't have the ba11s to do it. They just play both sides against the middle, thats there modus operandi. The Israelis are the only ones over their who are our allies and can be counted on to do what ever it takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilmer17 Posted February 3, 2003 Author Share Posted February 3, 2003 The world would end if Israel assassinated Saddam. I think the Arab street is more pro Saddam/anti anything US than we know. If Saddam launches conventional scuds at Israel, I dont see them escalating. But if he uses Chemicals, I wouldnt be suprised at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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