GURU Posted August 27, 2002 Share Posted August 27, 2002 Well, the problem I have with some of these arguements is that Spurrier and his Redskins still have to prove they can pass against top defenses and regular season game-planning. My inclination is to believe that teams, at least initially, are going to stack the line of scrimmage and shoot all the gaps until the quarterbacks prove they can throw it over the top. Of course, that is going to affect Davis' running at the onset. But if teams find they have to back off on the pressure, Davis is going to find some running room and exploit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redman Posted August 27, 2002 Share Posted August 27, 2002 Originally posted by GURU Does anyone remember, from the '91 Super Bowl run, when Ernest Byner was out of one game due to injury, and Gerald Riggs started in his place? I can't even remember who they were playing, but Joe Gibbs kept lining up in 4 wideout sets, spreading the field, and then repeatedly crashing Riggs up the middle. It was devistating. Can anyone here envision Spurrier doing the same thing with Davis? I just don't understand the lack of imagination from both certain fans and certain media-types. You're crazy if you think you've seen anywhere close to the full array of plays this offense can drop on a defense. . . I agree with the last comment, but beyond the type of personnel employed in the formation, there's nothing to compare between Spurrier's and Gibbs's running games. Spurrier's line is most certainly not the Hoggs, and instead of dives into the line or off-tackle runs, we'll evidently be seeing traps and draws. That's been confirmed by Gator fans on this board. For that reason, it's valid to be concerned about how well Davis fits into the offense. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codeorama Posted August 27, 2002 Author Share Posted August 27, 2002 Redman, I just wanted to ask you opinion. Would you trade Stephen Davis? Just for arguments sake, we know of the salary implications, we don't want to loose him for nothing and then have him sign with the Eagles or something next year... what would you do. I am honestly not sure. I know how valuable SD has been, but that's not going to do any good if he just doesn' t fit in. Also, was drafting Betts so high an indication that SS isn't sure about SD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redman Posted August 27, 2002 Share Posted August 27, 2002 Trade him for who or what? I need to know that before I say yes or no. I'm already on the record here saying that we need to think seriously before resigning him, given the money he'll ask for, the large amount of running he's done over the last three years and the wear and tear on his body given the style of runner he is. I've pointed out statistically using various other similar RB's career stats that we can't reasonably expect Davis to last more than 2-3 more years as an effective NFL RB. Does that mean it's impossible for him to do so? Of course not. It just means that it's not reasonable for us to expect it to happen such that we ignore it when it comes time to decide whether we keep him on the roster and the amount of his bonus/salary. I think Davis is great and I love watching him run. I just am a bit ruthless when it comes to wanting my team to manage the cap and to keep fresh and cheaper blood on the roster. Those sentiments are only heightened when contemplating that he also may not be the best fit for Spurrier's offense. For the latter reason, I think we'll use this season, or at least the first portion of it, to evaluate his compatibility with Spurrier before deciding what we do with his contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GURU Posted August 27, 2002 Share Posted August 27, 2002 Ya know, Gibbs ran traps and draws, too. He ran plays that would work against what the defense showed him. Gibbs brought the Coryell air attack with him here to Washington. You know, aggressively attacking defenses with the pass. Lots of passes to running backs, too. He implemented it his first year, but found his personnel was suited to playing a little more smashmouth style. He adapted. But he didn't simply abandon his air attack. It was still a key to his offensive success. Running Riggins 30 times a game wouldn't have worked unless there was a real passing threat. Why should we expect any less of Steve Spurrier? He has a little different, take-no-prisoners attitude that Gibbs lacked. But he is the same type of competitor and innovator. Why are so many people so sure of what is going to transpire this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codeorama Posted August 27, 2002 Author Share Posted August 27, 2002 Redman, just to say, what if a team other than an NFC east rival offered a starting O lineman (a good one) or a 1st rd pick next year. What would you do.... (I'm not asking to criticize you, I just think your'e pretty realistic based on you other posts.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redman Posted August 27, 2002 Share Posted August 27, 2002 I wouldn't want the o-lineman (who presumably wouldn't be a premium LT, right?), as that's not an even trade. I don't think anyone would be happy with a guard or center for Davis, straight up. My default demand on Davis as trade bait would be next year's #1 and #3. A #1 next year, if it's high, would be intriguing, especially given the fact that next year is QB heavy, and we could easily trade down from there with a team angling for one of the premium QB's. If it was a high #1, then I might consider doing that straight up. The problem with that scenario is that a crappy team with a high #1 won't want to trade for Davis. Instead, the teams interested in trading for him would be the ones who view themselves as essentially being 1 RB away from the promised land. You saw a version of that with Miami and Ricky Williams. If William Green doesn't work out, then Cleveland could be one such team. As others have said, Philly would be another candidate. Also, a trade is unrealistic because of Davis' high salary. But all of this is hypothetical and wouldn't occur until next offseason anyway, as basically all but a few of each team's cap dollars are committed by each team right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codeorama Posted August 27, 2002 Author Share Posted August 27, 2002 That's funny, I thought of Cleveland too.... but I agree, you are right that the salary makes a trade out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Novato Posted August 27, 2002 Share Posted August 27, 2002 If we let SD walk, Jerry Jones will snatch him in 0.00000001 nanosecond. You can take my word on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redman Posted August 27, 2002 Share Posted August 27, 2002 And let him, Novato. I'm all for stretch face overpaying one of our vets, even if it means that Davis runs up a couple 100 yard games against us out of spite. It's not like he's one RB short of Super Bowl glory. :laugh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Tater Posted August 28, 2002 Share Posted August 28, 2002 Davis ain't walking unless management doesn't want him. Gee, I get to employ my geekdom again! When we hired Steve Spurrier, I did an analysis of his 'system'. *He will run about 45% of the time (based on his UofF book) and maybe more (in his most sucessful years there he ran more than he passed) *He will run the most in the 4th quarter, he often calls more running plays this quarter than he does in the rest of the game combined. *In the games played, his prime runningback usually got at least one rushing TD. *Guestimating that we will run about 1000 plays from scrimage (based on St Louis last year), we will see around 450 rushing attempts this year. Now as to Davis: *He is a 'rythym' runner, his best production comes in carries 15-20. He's not getting to that number in the pre-season, he never has and is doing about what he's done every pre-season. *As the prime back, He will get about 75%of our carries (more if no dings), so I estimate, assuming he stays healthy, around 330 carries give or take about 10. This will usually put his most productive carries in the fourth quarter. This has also been his pattern. *Davis has usually runs exceptionally well when we have a lead. Against Chicago last year, had we not fallen behind upon entering the fourth quarter, he was about to take over the game. Against NO, he had almost 100 yards in the third quarter alone. *Assume he gets about 4.8 yards per attempt (this is what he got in his breakout year when the pass was working), he will get between 1500 and 1600 yards rushing. *Although no jiterbug, he is a very patient runner who waits for a crack and then is thru it before you blink. The screening blocks of this offense, play well to this strength. As to the line, I've heard greater wailing and gnashing to teeth in '99 and '01, those lines worked out. Key is the starters stay relatively healthy for the whole season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flgator03 Posted August 28, 2002 Share Posted August 28, 2002 Davis will be very successful in the SOS offense. On draw plays to soften up the middle and as a receiver out of the backfield. As much as The Coach has shown you so far there is still more to come. The beauty of the system is his abiltiy to adapt it to the talent. Davis will not be wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey T Posted August 28, 2002 Share Posted August 28, 2002 I just can't believe all the "can he/does he" posts about SD in this thread. WhereTF have you people been the last three years?? If he gets a seam, he hits it. If he has to bounce it outside, he has the speed to do it. We all know what he likes to do to a potential tackler, be it @ TLOS or in the D backfield. One of the best stiff-arms(old nomenclature)in the NFL! The man has POWER to break tacklers and wannabe tacklers! He has carried our pathetic offense. Jus' gimme a break! Now, a retort to this claim that I have made. Ya better be able to back it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indyskinsfan Posted August 28, 2002 Share Posted August 28, 2002 well now, I plum got run otta' town fer even whistling dixie! I jumped on a bandwagon, should the Skins even go that way and got smacked in the mouth by other posters! I don't want him to go anymore than anyone else, but SHOULD they do it, they would rather release him and the cap impact than trade him in this year, which may not include any takers for his amount. Do I want SD on the roster - I ask you, does a bear sh** in the woods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redman Posted August 28, 2002 Share Posted August 28, 2002 Originally posted by OPM When we hired Steve Spurrier, I did an analysis of his 'system'. *He will run about 45% of the time (based on his UofF book) and maybe more (in his most sucessful years there he ran more than he passed) *He will run the most in the 4th quarter, he often calls more running plays this quarter than he does in the rest of the game combined. Why should we pay any more heed to the number of runs by a college team that was used to leading big in the second half, than we did to the Rams' #1 ranked run defense in 1999. In both cases, the impressive stats were due more to other factors than to the Gators' running game itself or to the Rams' run defense itself. Let's face it, if Spurrier stays true to UF form, we won't be seeing Davis carry the ball all that much if the game is close or we're behind. That seems pretty undeniable - just listen to what our Gator-Skins are telling us. For those of us who know Davis as someone who gets stronger as he gets more carries during the game, this is a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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