Thinking Skins

I think the question needs to be asked (and this needs to be said, sorry EB), Does Sam need a running game to be successful. 

We're seeing this right now. and we saw it with Carr in Houston. I was bringing it up in the post about running before contact that our line isn't good because BRob is basically creating his own holes. Its basically the same thing Kelley had to do, and Perine. Guice was a nice switch up but he kept getting hurt. I just want a line that we can get a yard on third and 1. 

Oh, I just realize I put that in the wrong thread. I meant to put it in the QB thread. 

I'm sitting here looking at David Carr and the way people compare Howell to him saying we don't want Howell to become another Carr, we'd think Carr is cursed ground. 

Dude won rookie of the year. 

Had a 14.6 sack percent in his first year - 444 attempts

Had a 4.8 sack percent in his second year. (when they got him a 1000 yard back, wonder how that works) - 295 attempts

Had a 9.5 sack percent in his third year (again with a 1000 yard back) - 466 attempts

His 4th year his sack percent was 13.8 but his RB got hurt and they had a horrible year overall - 423 attempts

His 5th year his sack percent was 8.5 with no real running game - 442 attempts

So was he a top QB, no. But he was able to lower his sack numbers to the point where the Texans were competitive with him. 

Just now, Conn said:

Yeah. That poster is asking why you said “I know people like to say how great the Commanders OL” is in your tweet. What Twitter bubble are you in exactly that that’s what you’re seeing? Did you find yourself deep in the blind homer corner? Because no one is saying that, in general 

Oh, that was the Al Galdi show and a Chris Russell show and another. They have been ranking them high. Given, Chris did a show recently where he asked, saying he knows they aren't good so, are they average or bad. 

18 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

who’s saying that?

Look at the rush stats. And the rush yards before contact. BRob is not getting help from the OL. This shows he's not getting holes. So basically the OL is not helping Sam by creating a running game.

8 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

who’s saying that?

What are you asking

4 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Nice information but it needs to be presented in a better way.

I agree, but before I put a lot of weight into it I have to question how well they recognize coverages. DCs disguise those things well. It's interesting, but maybe not quite true. 

The other thing is that it's such a small sample size. I know we keep saying it but it's true. If it carried over from college it's different, but 6 games?

But yeah user interface is bad

Yep. It's about that time of year when I turn off sports radio and start listening to audio books all day. 

I thought it would be different this year but nope. Today it was all hosts insulting DC fans for them being negative. And Sheehan insulting us for wanting EB over Bellichick, not trying to use reason to form a two step decision tree to say that maybe first thing is WE DON'T WANT BILL  and second anybody is better than him. But radio and insulting us makes him feel better. 

Anyway I'm too old for this routine. I'll just watch the games and listen to the actual analysis not the all day talk about nothing trying to hype stuff. 

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

OK, So I've been negative on our running game all year but looking at the stats BRob has been above 3 YPC all in every game except the Chicago game where he only had 6 carries. Now, he couldn't run it at the end of the Atlanta game but thats a difficult thing to do when they expect you to run the ball and they're doing all they can to stop you from running it. You could see EB trying to be tricky there because he was calling pass plays as well (I mean there were 5 minutes left) but there was some good defense by the Falcons there and I think some indecisiveness by Howell. And I think we weren't really trying to score as much as not mess up and that's part of it too because he didn't want to make an errant throw that leads to a pic 6 so he'd rather take a sack. 

That said, I think the ATL game was just a weird game. We had so many short fields that we didn't get to establish our offense. We did our thing in the first half but from the 2 min drive at the end of the first half when they got those sacks, yeah that TD helped, but it was only 2 plays. All of a sudden we're up 24-10 and have done little on offense. 

Fast forward to Giants game and I think the opposite. I think that Howell has emerged as the guy in this offense. Teams are coming in prepared to stop him. So hopefully, running lanes will open up for BRob in the Giants game and over the next 11 games (give or take one or 2) and he may have his first 120+ yard game in his career in a physical smash mouth NFC east style game.

I feel so bad because yesterday I let myself get dragged into the Howell smut going around. I guess its no surprise I believe in this guy, but I've been on his team since the draft (and Ridder, but Howell more). So its great to see this season progressing. 

Now, if we backtrack, most people - fans, NFL pundits, radio hosts, etc, - expected this team to be carried by its defense and its running game. Its still the lead in to the BMitch and JP show. Sheehan spent all offseason talking about how this was an ELITE defense and with just average QB play, we're a playoff team. I didn't believe in the defense as much because I felt like we were putting a lot of hope in Young being good again, and this defense looking stout against good teams (not just Houston or Atlanta last year).

But I did/do expect the running game to come together. I think its great that our passing game is working so well because as it grows and we look more like Philly in the eary 2000s, I think we have a nice set of backs right now that are similar to what they had in their rotation. 

Just wanted to throw a stat out there

Alex Smith, someone who developed throughout his career went through I think 22 5+ sack games including a 9 sack game when he was in SF. 12 of these games came when he was in KC. I don't think he had a 1000 yard rusher with him after his first year there. 

Something to think about

1 minute ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

Sam takes too many sacks. But people are downplaying how well he has played. He is top half of the league in any metric you want to use. 
 

Sam is really smart (top Wonderlic score of his class if I remember correctly). Sam is tough as nails.  Sam puts in the work. All of these things give me high confidence that he will figure it out.
 

Why do people act like his sack numbers are a finished product? Are we just bored and in the doldrums of another **** season? Probably the latter. 

Everyone and by everybody I mean Kevin Sheehan wants something to complain about, so he will invite people on his show to knock him down. It's cool because people pointed out how Kirk followers were willing to live with his critical interceptions at the worse moments but these sacks are what's not going to make him a franchise guy? C'mon. 

Let's take after the Giants game, we know how Kirk always broke down over them. 

In a weird way, I think Sam's sack problem could be solved through BRob developing in EBs system. Let's say he comes out and starts getting 5 and 6 a pop. I'm not saying we don't throw the ball at all, but that will help to neutralize the pass rushers. 

Two things right now are true, we are the most pass dominant and the most sacked team. Maybe that's not just a corollary but a causation as well. So as we increase the runs the sacks will go down. 

Just a thought

53 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

What needs to be done w/ our turf?

 

It seems to be holding up great ever since we replaced it.

I think they were talking about the general state of it today vs how it was when RG3 played and keeping it up. I don't know what needs to be done now. 

Does anyone know what Jonathan Williams is doing? Is he on our Practice Squad? Any chance he gets called up for this game? 

So, some random dude on twitter (Wesley Steinberg) is saying that Giants are making Tyrod Taylor the starting QB going forward. There have been rumors that DJ is injured for the year and that they were bring in QBs like Ian Brook so this is kinda believable. But I'm waiting for somebody more repudable. 

I didn't listen to RG3's podcast but if you listen to Andy Pollin's podcast he talks about Josh Harris and his interview with RG3. Apart with Andy Pollin taking us through RG3's trying to get back into the league AGAIN and the knee injury AGAIN there is some new stuff including what might be done with turf at FEDEX and hiring of medical staff potentially right now. 

52 minutes ago, RVAskins said:

I still don't get why some fans are still down on Howell. I think his ceiling is very high.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/commanders/news/washington-commanders-qb-sam-howell-historic-pace

 

In the first half of their 24-16 win over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 6 the Washington Commanders advanced to 3-3 this year and quarterback Sam Howell advanced to the top of the franchise history book in passing yards. 

With 109 yards through the air in the first half on Sunday, Howell became the passing yards leader in franchise history for the Commanders through seven starts, the team announced. 

Its like I said about the USC talk, this fan base has been burned so they don't want to hope. Sheehan (i think it was him) said it on his show that its easier to bet against somebody becoming a franchise QB because most guys don't - let along fifth rounders. Given that was before he had done much on the field. 

Now that he has, fans want to dissect everything because they can see Daniel Jones after his one good year how Zach Wilson is in the league, how Mac Jones is after his one good year, how up and down Baker has been throughout his career, Pickett, etc. There are so many examples of people that come up as counters to what Howell can be. So that we can't bring up the Brees or Wilsons or the Josh Allen's or the elites. 

And then the question becomes well can he just be a "mediocre QB" and we're seeing that he's already that. Sacks included. The question before the season was if we had a middle of the pack QB with our defense from last year we could have a playoff team. Now we have a top half of the league QB. and a bottom third of the league defense. 

This dude has not reached his peak. These sacks will be corrected. And I think the EB thing will be either a 1 year rental (when they fire Ron) or a long term thing when EB becomes HC and they get a new running game coordinator who aligns with Andy's offense. 

49 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Its unsustainable. He's averaging 5 sacks a game. I think he's lost over 200 yards so far this season off sacks. Percentages are if you take a sack on a drive its probably a drive killer, so that's 5 possessions a game where we're not gonna score(maybe a FG at best). 

 

If he can even cut it to like 3 a game that would be a massive upgrade.

People are acting like he's a finished product, saying things like you can't grow out of it and it can't be taught. I'm like he's a 23v year old player playing the best ball this town has seen in maybe a decade. I'm not going to look for reasons to get mad. 

Dude individually kept us in that Chicago game. I'm thankful for that because I wanted to turn it off but after Denver I knew he had it in him and he didn't disappoint. We didn't win but if not for a Slye miss I'd be a lot happier of Friday. 

Dude took us down the field against Philly twice. That's a 23 year old. Going toe to toe with the SB team. 

Yeah sacks can be drive killers. But look at when he takes them, end of half and end of game. Not just normal times. This is what frustrates me. People act like he's just doing it on a typical first quarter, no it's always in some special situations. I think he can learn from those. 

2 hours ago, Metalhead said:

He's 23. He's been sacked 34 times, has a crappy OL, and still hanging with the big boys in the league by putting up good to great numbers. He's already Top 15 in the league, imo. Yeah, basic stats but they are what counts at the end of the day.

 

5th in Completions at 145

9th in Yards at 1500

10th in TD's at 9

10th in Cmp% at 67.8

10th in YPG at 250.0

And people really care if he sets the sack record. Who cares. If he does these numbers and gets 100 sacks, so what. If we can get 10 wins, great. This is our guy. Let's go baby. 

14 minutes ago, Stihl89 said:

Don’t scout the helmet…

Sorry. I've been burned. 

19 minutes ago, Tress Is The Way said:

Caleb Williams is a USC QB, there has never been a good USC QB in the NFL. Sure he has the talent, but I have serious doubts about the kid.. maybe he proves me wrong but people believing he's the next coming of Andrew Luck is laughable. He seriously reminds me of RG3

This. We have a good QB. Why risk it for a USC QB?