Going Commando

It always does with QB prospects. But Drake is head and shoulders more talented than the other two. He's one of the best QB prospects of the past ten years and we are incredibly lucky to have the opportunity to draft him.

You need to get that thumb you severed off when you were disposing of the body taken care of.

He's got pretty explosive pocket movement, but a 4.5 40 is surprising. Looking at that clip of him running it, the start was really good and explains the excellent time. Looks like he's got some track skill and is a really coordinated athlete. He can move around and create, he just does it from inside the pocket and behind the LoS. Tom Brady is the ultimate example of what superior functional mobility looks like for a pocket passer. Everyone always clowns Brady as an athlete, but they're undervaluing how fluid and explosive his pocket movement is. He gets great depth and speed on his drops, when he has to drift he gets like two yards of space per stride and is always on balance, and he is unbelievably good at shifting his shoulders and hips to avoid contact. Penix has some of that in his game.

#9 on his list, Tyrone Tracy is one of my guys too. I really like Shipley too, and I'm looking forward to watching Washington upon your recommendation KB. I feel like people might be thinking about Antonio Gibson when they see Tracy's profile, but that's not an apt comparison despite their background of making a late switch from WR to RB. Gibson was all power and aggression and raw athleticism. It wasn't tempered with vision or patience. Tracy's vision is bizarrely excellent for someone with so little experience running between the tackles. He almost approaches inside gap runs like a kick returner--following all of his blocks, finding creases, and stringing together moves way downfield. He's an elite athlete too, with a 9.64 RAS. Most places have him rated in the 170s, and I feel like he's a nice 3rd/4th RB option because he can make his home on ST coverage and return teams. He'll be a cheaper option than Malik Washington and Will Shipley, who are ranked about 50 slots higher.

Jordan Reid is everywhere during Pro Day season. That's pretty cool. I liked listening to him do commentary for Jayden's Pro Day yesterday, and I assume he's hitting Duke and UNC today. It always felt like he was a smarter and more experienced one of us.

Penix is the QB who scares me in this class. Nobody is going to take him early even though his film the past two years is in Maye/Williams territory. His age and injury history ensure he won't cost premium QB resources, but they could be irrelevant factors once he is in the league. It feels like he's the most NFL ready guy too, and that he could be good out of the gate and win OROTY if he winds up on a team where he can start day one. I just don't want the Giants getting that kind of bump for a second round pick. Also really don't want to have to play against Nabers. I'm hoping the Chargers pick him. But I'm also scared the Giants will pick Bowers too. He'd be just as big a problem as Nabers. I think he's actually better than Nabers and Harrison Jr, and have him #3 on my board.

I don't know about more velocity than Jayden. I agree that he was quicker, but JJs velocity looked average to me, and he had to load up big time to drive the ball. I thought JJs throwing session was better as a whole. He's got good pocket mobility and really rapid feet and he was very rhythmic. Felt like he was sharper and better prepared than Jayden was. It seemed like Jayden was looking at his script for the first time. I agree with that consensus that JJs session was better and cleaner but that he is much less physically impressive. I can't buy JJ as an early first round pick. To me he feels like Kirk Cousins without all of the vertical playmaking. He's good but has no dominant traits or film aside from his ability to run.

Jayden Daniels is #5 for LSU. Drake Maye plays for UNC and wears #10.

Washington's Pro Day is tomorrow too. I want to see who the Giants send to that one.

Another indicator is where the QB is in his drop. When Jayden has finished his drop and is standing still waiting to throw, he's probably late. This is his nature as a passer. He will hang on that first read too long, hang on that crossing route runner too long, or when he breaks pocket and has to create something downfield because he can't scramble past a flat defender, he just waits too long. He's not an urgent player. It's one of the main things that gets him into trouble, and it's going to be worse for him against NFL zones. These dudes are studs and he's giving them time to get a running start on their break, and he's also running out of space before the sidelines. If you're going to be consistently late on throws, then you need a bigger arm than Jayden has. If I'm a defensive coordinator, I know I can throw off his timing by jamming his first option and making sure I have somebody to guard the flat opposite the side I'm bringing pressure from, and then my zone defenders are going to make plays. He needs a lot of time in the pocket to make decisions. He's going to struggle here as a rookie if we draft him.

The 40 really doesn't matter for QB prospects. No QB ever had his career made or broken by his 40 proficiency. The times that QBs get aren't even useful for telling us about their functional mobility. Mahomes is one of the most athletic QBs in the league and he ran a 4.8. The fast 40 guys basically just demonstrate that they're good at running track.

I wasn't very impressed with Sanders either when I was watching the Texas offense. He's a pretty bad blocker. TBH, the only Texas offensive players that impressed me were Whittington, Brooks, Ewers, and Kelvin Banks Jr. Christian Jones and Xavier Worthy were OK and you can see they've got elite speed and interesting traits. Adonai Mitchell and Sanders looked like total bystanders. Felt like they were pretty far down the totem pole in the offense. That team has a ridiculous amount of speed, and that shows you what unlimited NIL money can get you. But the only guys who seemed like super blue chippers were Banks Jr and Brooks to me. Sanders was a super recruit, I thought I was going to be able to see that in his film.

I think his arm got tired and the deep throws at the end suffered. But I thought the workout was OK. He showed off good throwing power. His drops looked slower than I expected, and the workout as a whole lacked urgency. I was hoping to see a CJ Stroud type of throwing session where he just moved through each drop and throw like a machine. Explosive steps, explosive hitches, super fast release with easy spin. No fatigue. Even Stroud's head movements when he was looking off his throws were explosive. He was locked in, and I thought Jayden was very casual and slow paced. Also felt like the ball was slow to come out. He's sitting at the bottom of his drop holding it and it comes out late, plain and simple. He doesn't like to anticipate breaks even in a scripted session, and this dude is going to need a really clean pocket to operate a full field passing game. I'm just not sold that he's better than Maye at all. If we pick him over Maye, I think we'll be making a mistake, and a consequential one. It'll be hard for me to get on board with that choice despite all of the good work Peters has done so far. I'll root for him, but I won't be able to buy in until I see it work out.

He's not a very physically impressive QB. Watching that, his drops are tiny and much less explosive than I hoped to see, and he really has to load up to drive the ball. I saw that combine video of him and Michael Penix throwing the ball in their hotel and there is just such a stark difference between them in physical stature. JJ takes these wobbly little drop steps and then floats it, Penix flies back and then drives it with real power. Jayden Daniels, skinny as he is, is a much more physically impressive QB than JJ McCarthy. I honestly don't see where all of this early first round love with McCarthy is coming from.

You only run the 40 if you've trained for it and are getting good results and are healthy. Period. If I were him I wouldn't have bothered training for the 40. It's irrelevant to his future as an NFL QB. We know he's fast and doesn't need to run a 40 to prove that. We also know that he's skinny and lacks play strength, and his weighing in at his listed weight doesn't disprove that either. You guys are getting too worked up over this weight and 40 stuff. The throwing session and individual meetings with the teams are what mattered for him at his Proday, and he's going to do those things.

Maye has a far higher ceiling than Jayden. Home run hitting running ability =/= high ceiling for quarterbacks. Justin Fields is also probably faster than Jayden, and he's definitely a more instinctive runner with better vision and better power. Anthony Richardson is also, for sure, a faster and better runner than Daniels is, but his incredibly high ceiling is defined by his rare throwing ability, not his running ability. You're writing Josh Allen off for his postseason record? He's been a top three player in the NFL for each of the last four years. He's a way better NFL QB than Vick was. Drake Maye is also a much better prospect than Josh Allen was. When people make the comparison between Maye and Allen, they're comparing a 20-21 year old Maye to a 26-27 year old Allen in his prime, because Maye is already making the kinds of plays that define Allen's dominance in the NFL. I think Maye can be better than Allen once he hits his prime, because he has almost as much physical talent paired with far fewer of the flaws. Allen couldn't touch Maye's accuracy or touch as a thrower when he was the same age, and was nowhere near as good of a decision maker. Allen was a pure bet on physical upside that a team doesn't have to make with Maye. Maye has a higher ceiling than Josh Allen and he's also a safer bet to hit that ceiling than Allen was. That's why he is probably going to go #2 in a stacked draft class, and the QB1 ahead of him is pretty much the prospect of the decade.

Yep. I don't want them to get Nabers and Penix. That feels like a horrible outcome. I want them to get Joe Alt and Bo Nix.

Well I don't know if our division is worse than others, but if he shows off some power, then it will make me a lot less concerned about picking him over a dude with big time arm talent. Let's be honest, his throwing session is obviously not going to look like Allen's or Richardson's. If he had that kind of power, we'd have seen it in games. I guess what I want to see instead is something like CJ Stroud's throwing session, where everything looks effortless and fluid, and the ball is super catchable and put on the money. But yeah, it would be nice to see him throw some lasers too.

When you look at almost all of the really bad hits Jayden took last year--against Missouri, Mississippi St, Ole Miss, and FSU--the problem was he was making a low FB IQ play. Basically in every case, he tried to cut the ball up field without a hole or without momentum and got destroyed. He has poor vision/instincts as a runner, and gets so fixated on beating the defender right in front of him, that he gets killed by the next guy he doesn't see at all. I think it's part of a larger problem in Jayden's game in that, after the ball is snapped and ends up in his hands, his view of the field compresses too much. This is what is meant by the "sees the field through a straw" phrase. It was the biggest flaw in Sam Howell's game, and the same for Justin Fields too. It's a significant issue for QB prospects, and I think it's the fundamental reason why Jayden is scared to throw the ball into tight windows or into the middle of the field when he's moved off his outside reads. He doesn't take risks as a thrower and can't stand to turn it over, so he pulls it and runs instead. And he's really good at it and it worked well for him in that explosive LSU offense. The problem is he just doesn't see the field well when he runs. Maybe he developed this style because he was always faster than everyone before he got to the SEC and was able to get away with stringing together 15 moves in traffic without getting touched, but it doesn't work any more. And I'm skeptical that he can easily change a fundamental part of his playing style. I'm skeptical that he can significantly expand his vision of the field once he's at a vastly more intense and difficult level of the sport. Drake Maye OTOH is a baller who sees the field really well. He has superb instincts and FB IQ. It's how he's able to create and pull off such crazy stuff during games so much. He plays football like a super creative lead guard in basketball, but the kid also averaged like 10 RPG in basketball. He's rugged. He's basically another Josh Allen in style, with a little less arm talent but a lot better touch and decision making skills.

You can tell the difference between an elite arm and a regular one in a pro day throwing session. I remember watching Josh Allen's and Anthony Richardson's. That was when my skepticism about them started to dissipate. If Jayden goes out there and just smokes it, demonstrating easy power, then yeah, it's going to change my mind about him. One of the biggest reasons I like Maye so much more than him is the difference in arm talent.

He doesn't need to run the 40. It's 100% obvious that he has elite speed for a QB. It's not what defines his NFL ceiling. It is much more important to see him throw. The arm talent is what he needs to demonstrate and prove to teams.

The hip drop swivel tackle is a dirty play where you intentionally try and take a guys legs out from behind. It's something smaller tacklers do against a bigger ball carrier who are running through the contact. The hip drop tackle was not banned, only the variation of it where you swing around and land on the back of the guy's legs, and yeah, its like a worse version of a horse collar. It's a specific tackle that will have no bearing on Jayden's career one way or another, because not a single defensive player in the NFL will have trouble chopping his skinny ass down. The dude has no strength. He just gets trucked right in the middle of his chest, often by cornerbacks, and it's because he tries to cut the ball back into the middle of the field late because he can't see past the guy directly in front of him.

To me the incentive for teams is still to kick touchbacks. It looks harder to cover kicks in the XFL style, and unless you've got a kicker who has the skills of a safety, I'd be worried about how quickly a good returner can get past the first level of blocks and then there is nothing but the kicker layered behind. What yard line are touchbacks going to be placed at?

We don't need to see Jayden run a 40. And wether he runs a 40 is more about how he trained for the drill than his weight IMO. If he really trained for it and got good times during training and his legs feel good, then maybe he runs it. But all of that would have been a waste of time for him IMO. He just needs to throw and throw well. I want to see video of the ball exploding out of his hand.

Yep, he's a technician. What's beautiful to watch is when a technician is so comfortable that creativity and style then come into play layered over top of technique. Thrash is a really creative route runner. You're right about his ability to gear up and down in a very dynamic way. He's deceptive too. Difficult to read his release, difficult to read through the stem, and difficult to read at the break. He's got the extremely rare talent for being able to consistently build separation early during the stem, and by the time he breaks the corner is so behind that Thrash ends up being wide open a ton. It makes him a super easy read for his quarterback. The dude is also really instinctive about maintaining throwing lanes and window space for his QB throughout the route, especially against zone coverage. He makes sure you can pull the trigger early with him and he looks for the ball. Reminds me of Josh Downs in that way, another receiver that I loved along with Metchie. Route running and creativity paired with aggression are a strong foundation for success at the NFL level. They tend to translate. But it's not all you need, and I think the big question with Thrash that limits him to a 3rd or 4th round pick is his size and strength. Lack of play strength has limited a lot of dazzling college receivers once they've gotten to the NFL. Jerry Jeudy is the prime example. Our own Jahan Dotson being another. NFL Corners don't like getting fooled by waterbug route runners over and over so they're going to press him and play Thrash tight and try to beat him up in the contact window to slow him down, and Thrash is going to have to develop the strength to run through that contact. I think there is a decent amount of room for physical development with Thrash though, despite his age. Georgia State is a tiny program that just started playing football 14 years ago. Their player development isn't any good, and I don't think a year of development at a mid major program like Louisville maxed him out.